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Corporate risk management with reinsurance and derivatives : panel data methodology and new results from empirical studies using Australian dataCarneiro, Luiz Augusto Ferreira, Actuarial Studies, Australian School of Business, UNSW January 2006 (has links)
This thesis contributes to the issue of why corporations manage risk with insurance and financial derivative contracts. Two different empirical studies are done with data sets from Australian companies: 1) one study on reinsurance demand; and 2) one study on interest-rate-risk hedging demand from non-banking companies listed at the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). Both studies use panel data models. A Monte Carlo simulation replicates the basic characteristics of the original data sets and allows a performance comparison among different panel data models. This thesis provides the first empirical work on insurer demand for reinsurance using Australian data. A panel-data set (1996-2001) is used, which provides 543 observations. The study finds strong evidence that larger insurers, insurers member of a group of companies, reinsurers, and captive insurers reinsure more. The impacts of leverage, taxes, and return on investments are not statistically significant. The second empirical study analyses the interest-rate-risk hedging demand with two panel data sets from 1998 to 2003 (1134 and 465 observations, respectively). Detailed information about interest-rate-risk exposures was available after manual data collection from financial reports, which was only possible due to specific reporting requirements in Australian accounting standards. A probit regression analysis confirms previous empirical results that company size is important to the decision to hedge interest rate risk in Australia. However, in relation to the analysis of the extent of hedging, the proper measurement of interest-rate-risk exposures generates some significant results different from those found in previous studies. For example, this study shows that total leverage (total debt ratio) is not significantly important to interest-rate-risk hedging demand and that, instead, this demand is related to the specific risk exposure in the interest bearing part of debt. This study finds significant relations of interest-rate-risk hedging to company size, floating-interest-rate debt ratio, annual log returns, and company industry type.
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Procurement risk management using commodity futures a multistage stochastic programming approach /Xu, Yihua, January 2006 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Title proper from title frame. Also available in printed format.
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Riskhantering i projekt : Modell för uppföljning / Risk Management in projects : Methodology for monitoring risksAhlmark, Peter January 2010 (has links)
<p>In April 2010 Vägverket (the Swedish National Road Agency) andBanverket (the Swedish National Railway Agency) will merge intoTrafikverket (the Swedish National Traffic Agency). Trafikverket willassume unified responsibility for the risk management that atpresent is responsibility of Vägverket and Banverket separately. Atpresent, as it will be shown in this thesis, Vägverket and Banverketshare the same theoretical background for risk management but usedifferent implementations often within the same agency. The use ofdifferent implementations results in a reduced transparency of therisk management both within and outside the agencies: this willbecome even more problematic when they will be fused intoTrafikverket.</p><p>The aim of this thesis is to review the current risk managementmethodologies used at Vägverket and Banverket and to suggest aunified tool for the risk management at Trafikverket. This will bedone by focusing in particular on construction projects, one fromVägverket (Partihallsförbindelsen) and one from Banverket(Nynäsbanan). In this thesis a particular emphasis will be put on theimportance of communication for risk management within anadministration. Better bottom-up and top-down communication andfeedback will enable improvements and more transparent riskmanagement especially at higher levels in the agency such as theboard of the project managers. The tool that will be proposed in thisthesis builds on the current tools used at Vägverket and Banverketthus assuring a smooth transition towards a unified tool.</p>
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Credit Risk, Fraud Risk, and Corporate Bond SpreadsZhang, QI 30 April 2013 (has links)
Exploring the main factors that determine bond spreads with respect to Treasury rates is one of the most critical issues in the corporate debt market. Credit risk has long been perceived as the most important determinant of bond spreads (Fisher, 1959). One of the most critical parameters in credit risk models is asset volatility, which includes idiosyncratic and systematic components. However, these models do not distinguish between them. Chapter 2 investigates the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on bond portfolio spreads between 2000 and 2010. While the prediction of traditional asset pricing models is that firm-specific risk should be diversified away at aggregate level, I find idiosyncratic volatility plays an incremental role in explaining bond portfolio spreads beyond the market factors.
Recovery is an important measurement of credit risk additional to default probability. Chapter 3 focuses on the estimation of firm recovery after bankruptcy using the Leland and Toft (1996) model. Using a large sample of Chapter 11 filings from 1996 to 2007, I find that the recovery derived from the Leland and Toft model has strong explanatory power on the debt recovery observed in the market.
Recent literature finds that all extant credit risk models significantly underestimate bond spreads, especially for investment grade bonds of short maturity. Chapter 4 identifies a heretofore ignored component, perceived accounting misstatement, by regressing bond spreads on the proxy of accounting misstatement propensity, while controlling for issuers’ default risk and bond illiquidity risk between January 1994 and June 2002.
My thesis deepens the understanding of bond price discovery mechanisms and presents an important challenge for future research to incorporate the strong empirical relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and bond yields in asset pricing models. My thesis also sheds light on the accurate prediction of debt recovery, which is important to the valuation and hedging of risky debt and credit derivatives. Furthermore, my thesis assists in solving the credit spread puzzle by identifying a new risk factor. Overall, my thesis provides new insights into research on the corporate debt market and has important implications for academic scholars and market practitioners. / Thesis (Ph.D, Management) -- Queen's University, 2013-04-30 20:22:12.594
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Essays on Incorporating Risk Modeling Techniques in AgricultureLarsen, Ryan A. 2011 August 1900 (has links)
Measuring, modeling, and managing risk has always been an important task for researchers. Many of the traditional assumptions relied on in risk research, such as the assumption of normality and single period optimization, have proven too restrictive and alternative methods have been developed. The objective of this dissertation is to explore and apply these tools to analyze geographical diversification. The first step to analyze geographical diversification is to understand how different climate and spatial variables impact yields. Yield dependencies for wheat, cotton, and sorghum are estimated using linear correlation and copulas. The copulas provide an alternative to linear correlation. The results of the different dependency estimations indicate that there is a significant difference between the results.
The next step is to analyze geographical diversification in a portfolio setting. Traditional portfolio optimization has assumed that risk and dependence are symmetric. Using a single period model, an asymmetric risk measure, conditional value at risk, and asymmetric dependence measure, copulas, are implemented into the portfolio optimization model. The efficient frontiers under both symmetric and asymmetric assumptions show that ignoring the asymmetric nature of the data could lead to optimal portfolio allocations that could underestimate the actual risk exposure. The implication of these results provides researchers with more motivation to move beyond the standard assumptions of linear correlation and normality.
Building on the single period problem, a multi-period portfolio model is formulated using discrete stochastic programming. One key in formulating a discrete stochastic program is the representation of uncertainty. Scenario generation is a method to obtain a discrete set of outcomes for the random variables. A moment matching routine is developed to capture the first four moments of the variables and the multivariate relationship is modeled using copulas. The results show that the moment matching routine closely captures the higher moments of the data. The results also indicate that there are possible gains from geographical diversification. Wealth levels increased for all three regions when production is diversified over the different regions. The optimal land allocation was dependent upon the base acreage assumption
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Riskhantering i projekt : Modell för uppföljning / Risk Management in projects : Methodology for monitoring risksAhlmark, Peter January 2010 (has links)
In April 2010 Vägverket (the Swedish National Road Agency) andBanverket (the Swedish National Railway Agency) will merge intoTrafikverket (the Swedish National Traffic Agency). Trafikverket willassume unified responsibility for the risk management that atpresent is responsibility of Vägverket and Banverket separately. Atpresent, as it will be shown in this thesis, Vägverket and Banverketshare the same theoretical background for risk management but usedifferent implementations often within the same agency. The use ofdifferent implementations results in a reduced transparency of therisk management both within and outside the agencies: this willbecome even more problematic when they will be fused intoTrafikverket. The aim of this thesis is to review the current risk managementmethodologies used at Vägverket and Banverket and to suggest aunified tool for the risk management at Trafikverket. This will bedone by focusing in particular on construction projects, one fromVägverket (Partihallsförbindelsen) and one from Banverket(Nynäsbanan). In this thesis a particular emphasis will be put on theimportance of communication for risk management within anadministration. Better bottom-up and top-down communication andfeedback will enable improvements and more transparent riskmanagement especially at higher levels in the agency such as theboard of the project managers. The tool that will be proposed in thisthesis builds on the current tools used at Vägverket and Banverketthus assuring a smooth transition towards a unified tool.
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Risk Management in M-Commerce projects : A Case Study of M-Commerce project in TrollhättanMeng, Liuchun January 2012 (has links)
Due to its inherent characteristics such as ubiquity, personalization, flexibility, and dissemination, mobile commerce promises business unprecedented market potential, greater productivity and higher profitability. With this in mind, it is perhaps not surprising that mobile commerce is growing much faster than its fixed counterpart. Unlike e-commerce, m-commerce is personalized and there is a need for a novel approach to evaluating risk management in m-commerce projects. Result in the increase of risks management in m-commerce. Besides the business core activities, the increased use of derivative products by both financial and non-financial institutions and recent events or scandals continue to demonstrate the need for enhanced standards and processes of control over risk. In this thesis, I attempt to introduce a new method for performing risk analysis studies by effectively utilizing the existing risk management process framework with adoptions of analysis approach in m-commerce projects. It will provide a sequencing of the core part of the risk management process into sub-processes for identify context, identify risks, analyse risks, evaluate risks and treat risks in different respects of m-commerce. Moreover, it seems that the integration of risk management process and some analysis method indeed provided very useful new insights. To be able to fulfil the purpose of study, qualitative research method was considered, using an inductive approach of a single case study of m-commerce project in Trollhättan with m-commerce related research literature and scenario for development of restaurant in university west as source of data. Based on the analysis, a number of observations were put forward in the conclusion. To begin with the strategy in relation to management structure will be considered. In addition, the role of information technology security is considered in risk management. Meanwhile, the good governance and risk management according to m-commerce application in risk management system and corporate governance are included in the discussion. In attempt of risk management in the m-commerce projects, this thesis examines the issues in one case of m-commerce project in Trollhättan not only information secure issues and some technical viewpoints in m-commerce project but also from the project management's perspective. The contribution of the thesis will be introducing a new framework/module for performing a risk analysis studies in m-commerce projects domain and a proposal for risk management in the m-commerce projects case of Trollhättan.
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FX Spot Trading and Risk Management from A Market Maker’s PerspectiveYang, Mu January 2011 (has links)
Due to the rapid development of computing technology and faster growth of financial
industry, Foreign Exchange high-frequency trading has become substantially more prominent to today's market players, especially to bankers and market makers. This research aims at introducing today's FX high-frequency trading structure and discussing how a market maker can effectively reduce downside risk when market faces a huge upward or downward stress. An Exponential Moving Average operator is introduced and implemented using a Matlab software for tick-by-tick data analysis. Simulation framework for market high-frequency data and client trading flow is also introduced and implemented using the Matlab software. Real-time P&L calculation is introduced and used to determine the performance of a proposed risk hedging strategy. On the other hand, due to the financial crisis we experienced in 2007, 2008, and 2009, we analyze the tail risk of foreign exchange market. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has been applied to real EUR/USD data, which contains eight-year daily closing exchange rate. An extension of from EVT to Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation is introduced. We also consider the volatility clustering issue in asset returns and demonstrate how GARCH model can be applied for VaR calculation. Lastly, we propose a method of using VaR as a high-frequency risk measure for risk hedging strategies during intra-day trading.
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Risk management in the competitive electric power industry /Dahlgren, Robert W. January 2003 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 70-74).
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Portfolio construction and risk management practical issues and examples.Gao, Pan. January 2003 (has links)
Thesis (M.S.)--Worcester Polytechnic Institute. / Keywords: Finance; risk management; portfolio theory. Includes bibliographical references.
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