В диссертации рассматривается методика митигации риска в отношении реальных инвестиционных проектов компании сервисного обслуживания транспорта. Данная методика будет видоизменяться в зависимости от сценарных условий и специфики инвестиционных проектов. Основой для принятия решения ее использования послужил положительный опыт использования формирования резервов банками под возможные потери ссудной задолженности с установлением процента формирования резерва. / The рареr discusses the methodology of risk mitigation in relation to real investment projects of a transport service company. This methodology will be modified depending on the scenario conditions and the specifics of investment projects. The basis for the decision to use it was the positive experience of using the formation of reserves by banks against possible losses of loan debt with the establishment of the percentage of the formation of the reserve.

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<p>In Chapter 2 an experiment has been conducted to measure the quenching distance of a premixed fuel-air mixture. Quenching distance refers to the physical limit below which combustion of a fuel and an oxidizer, even if present in sufficient proportions, cannot maintain combustion and propagate a flame. It is dependent on the physical area that is present for the flame to travel through, the temperature and pressure conditions, the thermal conductivity of the walls, and the specific fuel and oxidizer present. Applicable in a wide variety of industries from the automotive industry to the aerospace industry, the ability to control a combustion reaction and where it occurs can lead to increased safety and efficiency in devices such as injectors, mixing chambers, engine pistons, combustors, propellant turbopumps, and fuel-air heat exchangers. Currently, little to no quenching distance data exists for heavier-than-air hydrocarbons. Using a parallel ceramic plate setup with spark rods inside a pressure vessel to contain the initial combustion reaction, the quenching distances of the hydrocarbons is measured and a relationship with equivalence ratio is found. This relationship is used to construct a model to apply to heavier-than-air hydrocarbons.</p> <p>Chapter 3 focuses on an experiment designed to measure the flow rates of leaks in fuel-air heat exchangers. The ability to accurately quantify and understand these flow rates is crucial for assessing the performance and safety of such systems. Furthermore, the obtained flow rate data will be compared with a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model developed for micro-scale flows resulting from fuel leakage into a cross-flow of heated air within the heat exchanger. These flow rates provide a model of the volume and rate of fuel being injected into the air channels, aiding in the assessment of potential risks and hazards associated with the leakage. To validate the accuracy and reliability of the model developed for micro-scale flow, the measured flow rates obtained from the experimental setup are compared against the corresponding predictions of the model. By establishing a correlation between the experimental data and the model results, the validity of the model can be confirmed, ensuring its efficacy for future simulations and analyses.</p> <p>Chapter 4 details the creation and analysis of a program developed in Python and MATLAB for assessing combustion risk in microscale fuel-air heat exchanger channels. The Safety Net for Unquenched Flame Fronts (SNUFF) is designed as a design assistance tool for microscale flows of fuel and oxidizer, specifically for heat exchangers. This application helps analyze combustion risks in these microscale flow channels due to leaks or unintended flows caused by damage or manufacturing defects. SNUFF integrates REFPROP and flame simulation data with the models for quenching distance and microscale flow from previous chapters to generate sensitivity plots for various design parameters. This tool enables engineers to assess combustion risks in fuel-air channels, allowing them to design processes that accommodate manufacturing limitations in numerous microscale channel applications.</p>

In the last half century, the aerospace industry has seen a dramatic paradigm shift from a focus on performance-at-any-cost to product economics and value. The steady increase in product requirements, complexity and global competition has driven aircraft manufacturers to seek broad portfolios of advanced technologies. The development costs and cycle times of these technologies vary widely, and the resulting design environment is one where decisions must be made under substantial uncertainty. Modeling and simulation have recently become the standard practice for addressing these issues; detailed simulations and explorations of candidate future states of these systems help reduce a complex design problem into a comprehensible, manageable form where decision factors are prioritized. While there are still fundamental criticisms about using modeling and simulation, the emerging challenge becomes ``How do you best configure uncertainty analyses and the information they produce to address real world problems?” One such analysis approach was developed in this thesis by structuring the input, models, and output to answer questions about the risk and economic impact of technology decisions in future aircraft programs. Unlike other methods, this method placed emphasis on the uncertainty in the cumulative cashflow space as the integrator of economic viability. From this perspective, it then focused on exploration of the design and technology space to tailor the business case and its associated risk in the cash flow dimension. The methodology is called CASSANDRA and is intended to be executed by a program manager of a manufacturer working of the development of future concepts. The program manager has the ability to control design elements as well as the new technology allocation on that aircraft. She is also responsible for the elicitation of the uncertainty in those dimensions within control as well as the external scenarios (that are out of program control). The methodology was applied on a future single-aisle 150 passenger aircraft design. The overall methodology is compared to existing approaches and is shown to identify more economically robust design decisions under a set of at-risk program scenarios. Additionally, a set of metrics in the uncertain cumulative cashflow space were developed to assist the methodology user in the identification, evaluation, and selection of design and technology. These metrics are compared to alternate approaches and are shown to better identify risk efficient design and technology selections. At the modeling level, an approach is given to estimate the production quantity based on an enhanced Overall Evaluation Criterion method that captures the competitive advantage of the aircraft design. This model was needed as the assumption of production quantity is highly influential to the business case risk. Finally, the research explored the capacity to generate risk mitigation strategies in to two analysis configurations: when available data and simulation capacity are abundant, and when they are sparse or incomplete. The first configuration leverages structured filtration of Monte Carlo simulation results. The allocation of design and technology risk is then identified on the Pareto Frontier. The second configuration identifies the direction of robust risk mitigation based on the available data and limited simulation ability. It leverages a linearized approximation of the cashflow metrics and identifies the direction of allocation using the Jacobian matrix and its inversion.

A reestruturação do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro introduziu uma nova categoria de clientes no mercado consumidor. Os chamados Clientes Livres, ao contrário dos Clientes Cativos, podem formalizar a aquisição de energia elétrica para atendimento dos requisitos de seu processo produtivo, através de contratos bilaterais, onde os prazos, os preços e os volumes são livremente negociados entre os agentes. A segmentação imposta pelas reformas do setor promoveu a competição na atividade de comercialização, repercutindo em novas responsabilidades para os agentes setoriais, com oportunidades para a busca de resultados financeiros, mas, por outro lado, com riscos associados que requerem adequado gerenciamento. Conseqüentemente, o estabelecimento de contratos neste ambiente evidencia a importância da adoção de estratégias de hedge adequadas para mitigar os riscos de exposição financeira dos Clientes Livres ao Mercado de Curto Prazo. Sob essa perspectiva, o texto aborda a formação de preços contratuais no curto e longo prazos, propõe critérios de risco para aferir as estratégias mais promissoras, de acordo com o perfil do consumidor, de modo a otimizar a obtenção de energia no Ambiente de Contratação Livre, contemplando, também, o efeito da recente possibilidade da comercialização dos excedentes de energia elétrica, como forma de flexibilização contratual para esta categoria de consumidores. / The power sector reforms in Brazil introduced a new sort of consumers in the electricity market. The Free Consumers are able to choose their suppliers and freely negotiate contractual terms. The restructuring process of electricity industry promoted the competition into the retail sales subindustry. It gave new responsibilities to market participants and also potential opportunities to reduce its energy costs. On the other hands, the Free Customers are requested to manage their own risks. It is important therefore the establishment of contracting strategies to hedge against price risks. As consequence, the purpose of this study is to address a methodology to implement short and long-term contract pricing and evaluate the risks associated with its strategies. Moreover, the work identifies the contracting decisions to optimize electricity costs accordingly to customer´s needs. Finally, it is presented a study on contract flexibility where an opportunity could be given to such kind of consumers, making possible to resell part of their electricity contracts.

A reestruturação do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro introduziu uma nova categoria de clientes no mercado consumidor. Os chamados Clientes Livres, ao contrário dos Clientes Cativos, podem formalizar a aquisição de energia elétrica para atendimento dos requisitos de seu processo produtivo, através de contratos bilaterais, onde os prazos, os preços e os volumes são livremente negociados entre os agentes. A segmentação imposta pelas reformas do setor promoveu a competição na atividade de comercialização, repercutindo em novas responsabilidades para os agentes setoriais, com oportunidades para a busca de resultados financeiros, mas, por outro lado, com riscos associados que requerem adequado gerenciamento. Conseqüentemente, o estabelecimento de contratos neste ambiente evidencia a importância da adoção de estratégias de hedge adequadas para mitigar os riscos de exposição financeira dos Clientes Livres ao Mercado de Curto Prazo. Sob essa perspectiva, o texto aborda a formação de preços contratuais no curto e longo prazos, propõe critérios de risco para aferir as estratégias mais promissoras, de acordo com o perfil do consumidor, de modo a otimizar a obtenção de energia no Ambiente de Contratação Livre, contemplando, também, o efeito da recente possibilidade da comercialização dos excedentes de energia elétrica, como forma de flexibilização contratual para esta categoria de consumidores. / The power sector reforms in Brazil introduced a new sort of consumers in the electricity market. The Free Consumers are able to choose their suppliers and freely negotiate contractual terms. The restructuring process of electricity industry promoted the competition into the retail sales subindustry. It gave new responsibilities to market participants and also potential opportunities to reduce its energy costs. On the other hands, the Free Customers are requested to manage their own risks. It is important therefore the establishment of contracting strategies to hedge against price risks. As consequence, the purpose of this study is to address a methodology to implement short and long-term contract pricing and evaluate the risks associated with its strategies. Moreover, the work identifies the contracting decisions to optimize electricity costs accordingly to customer´s needs. Finally, it is presented a study on contract flexibility where an opportunity could be given to such kind of consumers, making possible to resell part of their electricity contracts.

The modern supply chain is long, complex, interconnected and global, and plays a fundamental role in business competitiveness. These conditions, along with various supply chain management trends in recent years have increased risks in supply chains which threaten supply chain performance. Greater impact, especially on cost, from an increased threat of supply disruptions is one area of particular concern. Companies today are struggling to find effective means to manage this increased risk and avoid adverse financial impacts. An approach to managing supply disruption risk in supply chains based on the minimization of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the supply chain is explored in this thesis. Insights are provided into an appropriate view of supply chain risk and a general four step risk management process to guide the design and evaluation of a new risk management tool based on such an approach. A prototype of the new total cost-based, modeling and simulation tool was created in partnership with ProModel Corporation and a government contractor that requested to remain anonymous. A preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of this tool in minimizing TCO and providing an interface useable by non-modelers is provided. This study also reviews and compares a sample set of current supply chain risk management methods and tools and compares them with the new tool for relevance in aiding users in managing supply disruption risk. Based on literature findings and preliminary feedback from pilot contextual demonstrations of the tool, the total cost approach to risk modeling appears promising, although the execution needs to be improved with further enhancements made to the prototype tool. In this preliminary study and evaluation, sufficient evidence is not available to determine that the new prototype tool is any more effective than other currently available risk management tools to provide necessary information to make supply chain risk management decisions that minimize TCO of a supply chain. Suggestions for further development of the tool, especially for improvement of the total cost approach, are provided as well as a preliminary evaluation procedure and survey instruments for a more robust evaluation of the new tool.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes andTurkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes and reluctance to conform with requirements of risk mitigation. Low penetration ratio and high earthquake risk threaten efficiency of the ZDS system and does not reduce burdens of the State. Based on survey findings, a more appropriate strategy for the achievement of resilience against earthquakes could be possible through the collaboration of the ZDS system with local administrations. It is observed that by means of a &lsquo / Grant Program&rsquo / , there may be abundant reason and evidence to achieve convertion of the ZDS system from a post-disaster loss compensation mechanism to a predisaster risk reduction benefactor. Supporting municipalities to produce urban risk maps could reduce risks by more accurate estimation of potential losses, and an extended coverage of the ZDS system to urban risks. Relationship analyses between homeowners&rsquo / attributes, perceptions and tendencies toward alternative policies indicate the necessity of introducing policies based risk-rated premiums. Homeowners are observed as requiring technical and financial assistance to take mitigation measures, decisions under individualized conditions, on the other hand, seem to reinforce fatalistic attitudes and reluctance due to the disregard of risk mitigation benefits and ZDS purchase. Waste of public resources and creation of social inequalities could be prevented by enhancing the capacities of local authorities to implement urban risk mitigation plans and community-based projects via a Grant Program. &lsquo / Relationship analyses&rsquo / of the attitudes of homeowners for alternative policies with respect to their attributes and perceptions revealed that a Grant Program could result in the perception of the ZDS system as a form of social solidarity in risk mitigation. This is to reduce fatalistic attitudes, and curb reluctance compared to individualized conditions of insurance purchase. As a result, willingness to mitigate risks through active participation and purchase of ZDS contracts, particularly among homeowners in the middle-lower socio-economic statuses are likely to expand leading to a resilience society.