This thesis investigates roadmapping in the context of its application to strategic early-stage innovation planning. It is concerned with providing an understanding of how uncertainty and risk are manifested in roadmapping in this application, and with developing and testing a roadmapping process that supports appropriate treatment of uncertainty and risk. Roadmapping is an approach to early-stage innovation planning, which is strategic in nature. It is seeing increasing application in practice and receiving growing attention in management literature. There has, however, been a noticeable lack of attention to uncertainty and risk in roadmapping theory and practice (and generally in strategic planning and at innovation’s early-stages). This is despite the awareness that uncertainty and risk are fundamental to strategy and innovation (i.e. application domains of roadmapping), and that roadmapping is meant to deliver, as part of its benefits, the identification, resolution and communication of uncertainties and risks. There is very limited theoretical or practical direction on what this entails. It is this gap that the research reported in thesis addresses. The research is divided into two phases. The first phase explains the manifestations and mechanisms of uncertainty and risk in roadmapping. It also introduces ‘risk-aware roadmapping’, a concept of roadmapping that includes a conscious and explicit effort to address uncertainty and risk, and points out what the process would entail in terms of necessary steps and procedures. The research here is designed using mixed methods (a combination of experience surveys, archival analysis, and case studies). The second phase provides a practical risk-aware roadmapping process. This practical process is developed based on the results of the first phase, and is designed according to procedural action research. This thesis contributes to the fields of roadmapping, early-stage innovation and organisational sensemaking. It is found that factors related to the content, process and nature of roadmapping interact to influence the perception and treatment of uncertainty and risk. Characteristics of organisational sensemaking as theorised by Weick (1995) are explored in the light of the findings and challenged. Aspects of early-stage innovation including the generation and selection of innovation ideas are explored in the context of uncertainty and risk and important paradoxes and constraints at innovation’s early-stages.

La quatrième révolution industrielle confronte les organisations industrielles aux défis importants de l'innovation manufacturière, défis auxquelles les entreprises tentent de faire face en utilisant des approches de la planification stratégique de la production (PSP). Les niveaux de risque et d'incertitude intrinsèquement liés aux activités de PSP sont motivés par la nécessité de réagir à la pression en matière d'innovation qui augmente rapidement dans les entreprises industrielles, en particulier dans les secteurs axés sur la technologie tels que l'automobile. L'impact de l'innovation dans la fabrication sur les performances mondiales d'innovation de l'entreprise est plus élevé que jamais, donc il est nécessaire de passer à la prochaine étape de la PSP traditionnelle.Dans ce contexte, cette thèse propose une approche méthodologique structurée à la PSP qui repose principalement sur l'utilisation systématique de la créativité et de l'expérience d'un vaste réseau d'employés pour établir un modèle intégré pour un processus de PSP basé sur les feuilles de route technologiques.En partant d'une analyse systématique des exigences à un tel processus à partir de la littérature scientifique et des expériences pratiques, les concepts de la conception intégrée sont utilisés afin de proposer un modèle de processus générique pour PSP. Partant du niveau des mégatendances, ce modèle de processus guide les parties prenantes venants de diverses unités organisationnelles à un niveau très concret des fiches de projet placés dans la feuille de route d’'innovation de l'organisation. Le processus de base repose sur des phases succinctes de réflexion divergente et créative et de consolidation convergente et ciblée pour la prise de décision. Grâce à une approche d'orientation structurée, le processus aide les parties prenantes à atteindre le niveau de description du projet à partir du niveau de la mégatendance dans seulement trois cycles de réflexion divergente et convergente, assurant ainsi l'efficacité et la faisabilité pratique du processus. Des indicateurs de performance clés innovants sont proposés pour mesurer les performances des processus et permettre leur amélioration continue.La faisabilité et l'efficacité du modèle de processus proposé ont été validées avec succès auprès du fournisseur automobile de premier rang ZF Friedrichshafen AG en Allemagne, en tenant pleinement compte du contexte, des exigences et des contraintes spécifiques de cette entreprise. / The fourth industrial revolution confronts industrial organizations with fundamental challenges to manufacturing innovation which companies attempt to face by employing strategic planning approaches. The high levels of risk and uncertainty intrinsically linked to such planning activities are driven by the necessity of reacting to the rapidly increasing innovation pressure exerted on manufacturing companies, in particular in technology-driven sectors such as automotive. Since the impact of innovation in manufacturing on the company’s global innovation performance is higher than ever before, there is a need for taking traditional production planning to the next level.In this context, this thesis attempts to provide a key contribution to the creation of a structured methodological approach to strategic production planning that is based on systematically leveraging the creativity and experience of a vast, diverse network of employees to establish an actionable, living integrated process for manufacturing-driven innovation roadmapping.Departing from a systematic analysis of requirements to such a process both from literature and practice, concepts from integrated design research and practice are used to propose a generic process model for strategic production planning supported by a technology roadmapping approach. This process model has been designed in such a way that it guides stakeholders from various organizational units through the creative planning process from the rough level of megatrends to the very concrete level of actionable projects positioned in the organization’s innovation roadmap. The basic process relies on subsequent phases of divergent, creative thinking and convergent, focused consolidation for decision-making. Through a structured guidance approach, the process helps stakeholders reach the project description level from the megatrend level in only three cycles of divergent and convergent thinking, thereby assuring the process’ efficiency and practical feasibility. Innovative key performance indicators are proposed for measuring process performance and enabling its continuous improvement.The proposed process model’s feasibility, effectiveness and efficiency were successfully validated at the German automotive tier-1 supplier ZF Friedrichshafen, fully taking into account the company’s specific context, requirements and constraints.