This study proposes a new, easily applied method to quantify uncertainty in production forecasts for a volumetric gas reservoir based on a material balance model (p/z vs. Gp). The new method uses only observed data and mismatches between regression values and observed values to identify the most probable value of gas reserves. The method also provides the range of probability of values of reserves from the minimum to the maximum likely value. The method is applicable even when only limited information is available from a field. Previous methods suggested in the literature require more information than our new method. Quantifying uncertainty in reserves estimation is becoming increasingly important in the petroleum industry. Many current investment opportunities in reservoir development require large investments, many in harsh exploration environments, with intensive technology requirements and possibly marginal investment indicators. Our method of quantifying uncertainty uses a priori information, which could come from different sources, typically from geological data, used to build a static or prior reservoir model. Additionally, we propose a method to determine the uncertainty in our reserves estimate at any stage in the life of the reservoir for which pressure-production data are available. We applied our method to San Juan reservoir at Santa Rosa Field, Venezuela. This field was ideal for this study because it is a volumetric reservoir for which the material balance method, the p/z vs. Gp plot, appears to be appropriate.

This study proposes a new, easily applied method to quantify uncertainty in production forecasts for a volumetric gas reservoir based on a material balance model (p/z vs. Gp). The new method uses only observed data and mismatches between regression values and observed values to identify the most probable value of gas reserves. The method also provides the range of probability of values of reserves from the minimum to the maximum likely value. The method is applicable even when only limited information is available from a field. Previous methods suggested in the literature require more information than our new method. Quantifying uncertainty in reserves estimation is becoming increasingly important in the petroleum industry. Many current investment opportunities in reservoir development require large investments, many in harsh exploration environments, with intensive technology requirements and possibly marginal investment indicators. Our method of quantifying uncertainty uses a priori information, which could come from different sources, typically from geological data, used to build a static or prior reservoir model. Additionally, we propose a method to determine the uncertainty in our reserves estimate at any stage in the life of the reservoir for which pressure-production data are available. We applied our method to San Juan reservoir at Santa Rosa Field, Venezuela. This field was ideal for this study because it is a volumetric reservoir for which the material balance method, the p/z vs. Gp plot, appears to be appropriate.

Thesis (Ph. D. in american studies)--Washington State University, December 2009. / Title from PDF title page (viewed on Jan. 22, 2010). "Department of American Studies." Includes bibliographical references (p. 159-190).

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Dissertação (Mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Ciências Agrárias. / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-17T17:52:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Caracteriza a variabilidade genética, por meio de eletroforese de isoenzimas, de nove populações naturais de Araucaria angustifolia, no Estado de Santa Catarina, com diferentes níveis de intervenção antrópica e distintas regiões geográficas. Objetiva-se gerar informações relativas à distribuição e dinâmica de alelos e avaliar as conseqüências genéticas da fragmentação e degradação de populações naturais desta espécie, visando auxíliar no desenvolvimento de estratégias de conservação e utilização racional dos poucos núcleos restantes e de sua diversidade natural.

Dissertação (Mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas. / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-17T18:36:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0Bitstream added on 2014-09-25T16:18:31Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 170118.pdf: 7675032 bytes, checksum: fd841e5d47365bc78b9ae066f313e0f5 (MD5) / Registros da Fundação Nacional de Saúde mostram que 1.523.657 adolescentes entre 13 e 19 anos engravidaram no Brasil em 1995. No Hospital Regional de São José (HRSJ), em 1998, foram realizados 870 partos em adolescentes menores de 19 anos, representando um índice de 23% dos partos realizados nesse ano. Destas adolescentes, 110 tiveram filhos com baixo peso. No Ambulatório de Adolescentes do HRSJ, foram acompanhadas pela pesquisadora, de março de 98 a maio de 99, 110 moças no período grávido-puerperal, através de reuniões mensais, utilizando-se a técnica de dinâmica de grupo. Observou-se que: 90% das adolescentes nunca havia usado preservativos,80% não estava estudando e 60% declarou conhecer métodos contraceptivos. As grávidas verbalizaram sentimentos de medo do parto e ansiedade em relação a troca de papéis. As puérperas relataram insegurança nos cuidados com o bebê, sentimento muitas vezes reforçado por figuras próximas, que acabaram assumindo a maternagem da criança. As adolescentes acostumadas ao cuidado de irmãos ou outras crianças, incorporaram rapidamente seu novo papel e algumas até faziam planos de engravidar novamente.

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Centro de Ciências Rurais / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-18T04:31:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0