This paper presents a framework for exploring the sustainability of U.S. domestic budget deficits in the presence of the currently experienced capital inflows. A 'sustainable' deficit-financing policy is defined as one in which the combination of debt-financing and seigniorage precludes the creation of a large unanticipated inflation to wipe out the debt in real terms. The model implemented is a rational expectations model of the open economy and two separate cases are analyzed. In Case I, domestic money creation is held 'fixed' and any increases in the deficit are financed by the sale of one-year discounted government bonds to domestic and foreign residents. In Case II domestic money and bonds are both endogenously determined. The asset market, in both the cases, is characterized by perfect capital mobility as defined by uncovered nominal interest parity. Real interest parity, however, does not exist as domestic and foreign goods are not perfect substitutes. In Case I, the solution of the domestic price level exhibits price-neutrality with respect to the deficits. The nominal and real exchange rates, however, are found to appreciate with increases in deficits and the situation is aggravated further by an exodus of domestic real wealth. In Case II, on the other hand, deficits are found to be inflationary and both nominal and real exchange rates depreciate with increases in the deficit. Furthermore, increases in the amount of debt being rolled over cause even greater upward pressures on domestic inflation and result in the further weakening of the dollar. The solutions also provide us with an expression for the maximum amount of debt that can be rolled over without causing the domestic price level to explode or the currency to collapse. This 'critical value' of debt is found to bear an inverse relationship to the rate of growth of the domestic deficit. Bond-financed deficits are therefore non-sustainable in both the cases discussed, and the arithmetic, it seems, is unpleasant indeed. / Ph. D.

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / Business / Master / Master of Philosophy

South Africa is trailing behind its BRICS counterparts in terms of Gross national Savings rates. South Africa stands at around 16% of gross domestic product, fellow BRICS members China and Russia are standing at approximately 52% and 22% respectively. South Africa saw a decline from approximately 30% GDP to savings ratio before 1994 to the current level of approximately 16%. The trend has been very similar in comparison with India. The other similarity between these BRICS countries is that they all have seen very rapid growth. All economic indicators have indicated that the economies of the BRICS nations are very strong and have been performing at a superior level to South Africa. South Africa compares even worse with regards to household savings versus its BRICS counterparts. Various arguments and explanations as to why this is so come up on a number of social, government and corporate platforms. The “aspirational” culture is widely blamed for the poor showing of South African households when it comes to savings. The South African financial sector is very sophisticated and is widely blamed for the encouraging consumption and even worse credit consumption. An analysis done by Ecnometrics found that amongst the significant determinants of household saving rates are: uncertainty (inflation), income level, public sector savings, development’s in the global economy and government economic policy. The study revealed that the above factors were very influential in the rapid economic growth and increased per capita net worth seen of the most BRICS countries. The correlation between saving/investment and consumption/irresponsible consumer behavior is indicated to be a very strong one and takes a very longtime to evolve. This requires outrooting certain societal norms, attitudes and culture and replacing it with a brand new behavior, beliefs and aspirations. Role players that emerge as strong drivers in this phenomena is the societal culture however the other role player who prove to be prominent are the policy makers. In most cases the economic and gross national saving rates coincided with major economic policy reforms in the countries that have performed well.

Low domestic saving rates make South Africa highly dependent on foreign capital inflows to fund higher investment levels. These inflows are highly volatile and may prove to be unsustainable in the long-run. This study analyses the determinants of private saving in South Africa, with specific reference to the decline in private saving rates that occurred at a time of higher economic growth prior to the 2008 global financial crisis. The Johansen cointegration method is used to estimate separate vector error correction models (VECM) in order to assess the effect of specific variables on both corporate and household saving. The results obtained that are common to both corporate and household savmg show that the govemment budget balance negatively impacts private saving rates though the offset is less than one. The real prime overdraft rate positively impacts private saving, although the result is small . The impact of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is positive. In recent years, however, private saving rates fell alongside higher economic growth, which may reflect a structural change in corporate saving behaviour. The results distinct to the corporate saving model show that commodity prices have a negative impact on corporate saving. This does not conform to a priori expectations, but is supported by the behaviour of these two variables in recent years. Foreign savings were found to impact negatively on corporate saving. This result is important, since the dependence of the South African economy on foreign capital inflows to fund higher investment levels is reflected by high current account deficits during recent periods of economic growth. Evidence of financial liberalization negatively impacting on private saving in South Africa due to the removal of borrowing constraints was found. A negative relationship was found between corporate saving and investment demonstrating that corporations have reduced levels of retained eamings for funding investment expenditures. The results distinct to the household saving model provide evidence of a negative wealth effect in South Africa, with rising housing wealth found to increase consumption. Evidence of households "piercing the corporate veil" in South Africa was found. Therefore, households view corporate saving behaviour as essentially being conducted on their behalf. This finding and the finding that the offset between the budget deficit and private saving is less than one suggest that counter-cyclical fiscal policy will be an important policy response for achieving higher domestic saving rates in South Africa.

No description available.

Thesis (MPhil (Sustainable Development Planning and Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2004.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: High levels of gross national savings reduce a country’s reliance and exposure to the vagaries of the global capital market. On an individual level, delaying consumption and providing for future needs and prosperity is a necessary condition to improve or maintain the quality of life. India and China’s gross national savings and, in particular, their household savings rates are higher than those of South Africa. Within the context of sustaining the global competitiveness of these developing countries - each with a burgeoning middle class – there is a need to ensure that policy formulation recognises the consumption and savings needs of this segment of the population. With a view to understanding the reasons why the household savings rates of China and India are so high in comparison to South Africa, this report investigates whether (and to what extent) South African policy makers can learn from China and India in the design of its policy framework to reduce consumption and create a savings culture. This research project is a comparative analysis of the determinants of household savings behaviour in China, India and South Africa, with specific reference to the consumer behaviour of the middle class consumer in each country. The comparative analysis draws on secondary sources such as journal articles, books, completed research and the Internet. While India and China have high household savings rates, this is not as a function of policy reforms that were introduced to encourage saving. Rather, an absence of sufficient financial sector development and a weak social safety net, coupled with a collective household culture and attitude that values saving ahead of consumption, that has resulted in households in India and China, and in particular middle income households, saving to ensure adequate provision is made. In South Africa, the impacts of financial liberalisation and a flawed social security system have resulted in a failure to provide broad based income protection. Increased consumer access to financial services coupled with a coherent social security structure and continued government investment are critical threads that must pervade the reform agenda in South Africa. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hoë bruto nasionale spaarvlakke verminder ’n land se afhanklikheid van en blootstelling aan die wisselvalligheid van die internasionale kapitaalmark. Op ’n individuele vlak is die uitstel van verbruiksbesteding en voorsiening vir toekomstige behoeftes en voorspoed ’n voorvereiste vir die verbetering of handhawing van lewenspeil. Indië en China se bruto nasionale spaarvlakke, en in die besonder hul huishoudelike spaarkoerse, is hoër as dié van Suid-Afrika. Binne die konteks van die volhoubare wêreldwye mededingendheid van hierdie ontwikkelende lande – elk met ’n ontluikende middelklas – is daar ’n behoefte om te verseker dat beleidsformulering die verbruiks- en spaarbehoeftes van hierdie segment van die bevolking erken. Om te probeer verstaan waarom die huishoudelike spaarkoerse in China en Indië so hoog is in vergelyking met Suid-Afrika, ondersoek hierdie verslag of (in en watter mate) Suid-Afrikaanse beleidvormers by China en Indië kan gaan kers opsteek ten opsigte van die ontwerp van sy beleidsraamwerk om verbruik te verminder en ’n spaarkultuur te skep. Hierdie navorsingsprojek is ’n vergelykende ontleding van die bepalende faktore van huishoudelike spaargedrag in China, Indië en Suid-Afrika, met spesifieke verwysing na die verbruikersgedrag van die middelklas verbruiker in elke land. Die vergelykende ontleding gebruik sekondêre bronne soos joernaalartikels, boeke, voltooide navorsing en die internet. Hoewel Indië en China hoë huishoudelike spaarkoerse het, is dit nie ’n regstreekse uitvloeisel van beleidshervormings wat ingestel is om spaar aan te moedig nie. Dit is eerder ’n gebrek aan voldoende finansiële sektorontwikkeling en ’n swak maatskaplike veiligheidsnet, tesame met ’n kollektiewe huishoudelike kultuur en ingesteldheid wat groter waarde aan spaar heg as aan verbruik, wat daartoe gelei het dat huishoudings in Indië en China, en veral middelklas huishoudings, spaar om genoegsame voorsiening te verseker. In Suid- Afrika het die impak van finansiële bevryding en ’n gebrekkige maatskaplike welsynstelsel gelei tot ’n onvermoë om breedgebaseerde inkomstebeskerming te verskaf. Groter verbruikerstoegang tot finansiële dienste, tesame met ’n samehangende maatskaplike welsynstruktuur en volgehoue staatsinvestering, is kritieke temas wat die hervormingsagenda in Suid-Afrika moet deurvleg.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study is on the impact of cooperative societies on capital formation using a case study of selected cooperatives in Kwazulu Natal province of South Africa. The study is a novel empirical investigation in that focuses on impact of cooperative societies financing on members and how that may translate into significant increase in household incomes. The study assess and evaluates the roles played by cooperative societies’ financing and loans services on members’ economic condition particular their business expansion, profitability and later on improvements in household incomes. Using focus group discussion and questionnaire, the study uncovers the activities of cooperative societies located in both urban and rural communities within KZN Province. The study provides some evidence on the importance of leaving conditions after member access to cheap and affordable loans and provides some insights into the development of rural businesses, how complex they are, and how they require more input than just the financing received through cooperative loans as a final end. It also breaks new ground in informal cooperative operations, community improvement and rural finance research by providing a peculiarity between standard of living and quality of life variables in measuring and determining the economic condition of rural livelihoods and the production of circle of New Institutional Economics theory that the role of cooperatives to the members involve financial capital, physical capital and social capital which are interrelated. This serves to properly distinguish and appropriately identify the roles of cooperative societies in rural finance to increase in household income, ownership of assets and acquisition of enterprise assets. However, the study reveals that access to funds and participation in the cooperative does not lead to enterprise profitability, thus less capital accumulation while rural financial needs are more accessible from cooperatives than other sources. From its findings, this study identified and discussed potential areas for the improvement of cooperative societies that could be of benefit to any urban and rural finance providers and the cooperative members.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between private saving and investment for South Africa using a Vector Error Correction Framework. Saving and investment are considered to be important factors for sustainable economic growth in the country, particularly as these variables have been recorded at significantly lower levels than those of other developing nations. By examining the direction of causality between saving and investment, the most suitable policy measures can be used in stimulating either savings or investment, and as a result aggregate growth. The study found a positive two-way causality to exist between these two variables, proving that both saving and investment-led policies are necessary in raising saving and investment levels. With the inclusion of credit extension as the third variable used to remove any variable bias, the study not only found credit extension to Granger cause private saving, but the reverse relationship was found to be present as well. This relationship was however found to be negative, confirming that lower borrowing constraints may have a negative effect on saving levels. The negative relationship between credit supply and private saving (substitution effect) proves that credit supply will only yield a positive result for savings if channelled through investment expenditure.