Is scenario planning a process that can be used by agencies of the Australian Public Service to generate and develop information that is relevant to the future, and thereby make possible improved strategic planning? This is the core question of this dissertation. The first part of the thesis is devoted to the case for investigating the benefits of scenario planning. Literature defining and describing the benefits of scenario planning for both private and public sector organisations is examined, and factors that appear to be critical to effective implementation of the process are discussed. Against this theoretical background the empirical evidence of seven cases of the application of scenario planning in six agencies of the Australian Public Service is considered. Several conclusions are drawn on the basis of the data obtained from the seven cases studied. Scenario planning is more likely to make possible improved strategic planning of public sector agencies such as those that comprise the Australian Public Service (irrespective of their function or size) if it has the active involvement of senior management during the developmental phase of the process, and their ongoing support for any follow-up activity. In addition, a well resourced and in-depth research phase is integral to the success of the process. Even if these elements are not present to a high degree, a well managed scenario planning exercise will improve to some degree the ability of an agency�s senior executive to think more openly and proactively about its future business context. In addition, well resourced and properly supported scenario planning can also help a public sector agency to improve the quality of its information gathering, test the viability of its strategy options and develop appropriate contingency plans.

<p>Posten är ett statligt bolag med runt 33 000 anställda och en omsättning på drygt 25 miljarder kronor. Varje dag sorteras runt 20 miljoner brev på tio terminaler. Huvuddelen av sorteringen görs maskinellt. För att säkra tillgängligheten i maskinerna finns därför reservdelslager på de tio terminalerna. Dessa lager försörjs främst från Postens centrallager för reservdelar i Stockholm, som i sin tur har kontakt med leverantörerna av reservdelarna.</p><p>Då varje terminal är angelägen om att ha en hög tillgänglighet på sina maskiner har lagren blivit stora. De stora lagren ökar riskerna för inkurans, speciellt eftersom maskinerna uppdateras kontinuerligt finns det risk att delar inte längre kan användas. För att strukturera underhållet av maskinerna använder Posten sig av ett underhållssystem, där även lagerhanteringen sköts. I systemet finns beställningspunkter och orderkvantiteter inlagda, men de bygger ofta på känsla och efterföljs inte. Tillsammans med minskande brevvolymer är detta ett problem som har lett till att Posten behöver sänka sina kostnader för lagringen av reservdelar. Studiens syfte blev därmed att sänka kostnaderna för lagringen av reservdelar utan att försämra servicen.</p><p>Intervjuer genomfördes med anställda inom Posten på olika positioner och terminaler för att ta fram viktiga faktorer. Dessa faktorer har sedan utvecklats till tre scenarier. Scenario 1 består av två delar, nämligen just-in-time av planerat underhåll och dagliga leveranser. Scenario 2 tar upp en flytt av centrallagret till Arlanda och scenario 3 en flytt av centrallagret till den befintliga brevterminalen i Årsta.</p><p>Kostnaderna kartlagdes för nuläget och de tre scenarierna. Kostnaderna visade på att alla scenarier skulle leda till lägre kostnader än nuläget. Båda delarna i scenario 1 gav stora sänkningar av kostnaden mot nuläget, vilket även scenario 3 visade på. Scenario 2 visade en obetydlig sänkning av kostnaderna.</p>

<p>In Black-Scholes model, the parameters -a volatility and an interest rate were assumed as constants. In this thesis we concentrate on behaviour of the volatility as</p><p>a function and we find more realistic models for the volatility, which elimate a risk</p><p>connected with behaviour of the volatility of an underlying asset. That is</p><p>the reason why we will study the Uncertain Volatility Model. In Chapter</p><p>1 we will make some theoretical introduction to the Uncertain Volatility Model</p><p>introduced by Avellaneda, Levy and Paras and study how it behaves in the different scenarios. In</p><p>Chapter 2 we choose one of the scenarios. We also introduce the BSB equation</p><p>and try to make some modification to narrow the uncertainty bands using</p><p>the idea of a static hedging. In Chapter 3 we try to construct the proper</p><p>portfolio for the static hedging and compare the theoretical results with the real</p><p>market data from the Stockholm Stock Exchange.</p>

In Black-Scholes model, the parameters -a volatility and an interest rate were assumed as constants. In this thesis we concentrate on behaviour of the volatility as a function and we find more realistic models for the volatility, which elimate a risk connected with behaviour of the volatility of an underlying asset. That is the reason why we will study the Uncertain Volatility Model. In Chapter 1 we will make some theoretical introduction to the Uncertain Volatility Model introduced by Avellaneda, Levy and Paras and study how it behaves in the different scenarios. In Chapter 2 we choose one of the scenarios. We also introduce the BSB equation and try to make some modification to narrow the uncertainty bands using the idea of a static hedging. In Chapter 3 we try to construct the proper portfolio for the static hedging and compare the theoretical results with the real market data from the Stockholm Stock Exchange.

Posten är ett statligt bolag med runt 33 000 anställda och en omsättning på drygt 25 miljarder kronor. Varje dag sorteras runt 20 miljoner brev på tio terminaler. Huvuddelen av sorteringen görs maskinellt. För att säkra tillgängligheten i maskinerna finns därför reservdelslager på de tio terminalerna. Dessa lager försörjs främst från Postens centrallager för reservdelar i Stockholm, som i sin tur har kontakt med leverantörerna av reservdelarna. Då varje terminal är angelägen om att ha en hög tillgänglighet på sina maskiner har lagren blivit stora. De stora lagren ökar riskerna för inkurans, speciellt eftersom maskinerna uppdateras kontinuerligt finns det risk att delar inte längre kan användas. För att strukturera underhållet av maskinerna använder Posten sig av ett underhållssystem, där även lagerhanteringen sköts. I systemet finns beställningspunkter och orderkvantiteter inlagda, men de bygger ofta på känsla och efterföljs inte. Tillsammans med minskande brevvolymer är detta ett problem som har lett till att Posten behöver sänka sina kostnader för lagringen av reservdelar. Studiens syfte blev därmed att sänka kostnaderna för lagringen av reservdelar utan att försämra servicen. Intervjuer genomfördes med anställda inom Posten på olika positioner och terminaler för att ta fram viktiga faktorer. Dessa faktorer har sedan utvecklats till tre scenarier. Scenario 1 består av två delar, nämligen just-in-time av planerat underhåll och dagliga leveranser. Scenario 2 tar upp en flytt av centrallagret till Arlanda och scenario 3 en flytt av centrallagret till den befintliga brevterminalen i Årsta. Kostnaderna kartlagdes för nuläget och de tre scenarierna. Kostnaderna visade på att alla scenarier skulle leda till lägre kostnader än nuläget. Båda delarna i scenario 1 gav stora sänkningar av kostnaden mot nuläget, vilket även scenario 3 visade på. Scenario 2 visade en obetydlig sänkning av kostnaderna.

Deploying a large number of information security (INFOSEC) systems can provide in-depth protection for systems and networks. However, the sheer number of security alerts output by security sensors can overwhelm security analysts from performing effective analysis and taking timely response. Therefore, alert correlation is the core component in a security management system. Most of existing alert correlation techniques depend on a priori and hard-coded domain knowledge that lead to their limited capabilities of detecting new attack strategies. These approaches also focus more on the aggregation and analysis of raw security alerts, and build basic or low-level attack scenarios. This thesis focuses on discovering novel attack strategies with analysis of security alerts. Our framework helps security administrator aggregate redundant alerts, intelligently correlate security alerts, analyze attack strategies, and take appropriate actions against forthcoming attacks. In alert correlation, we have developed an integrated correlation system with three complementary correlation mechanisms. We have developed a probabilistic-based correlation engine that incorporates domain knowledge to correlate alerts that have direct causal relationship. We have developed a statistical analysis-based and a temporal analysis-based correlation engines to discover attack transition patterns in which attack steps do not have direct causal relationship in terms of security and performance measure but exhibit statistical and temporal patterns. We construct attack scenarios and conduct attack path analysis based on the correlation results. Security analysts are presented with aggregated information on attack strategies from the integrated correlation system. In attack plan recognition, we address the challenges of identifying attacker's high-level strategies and intentions as well as predicting upcoming attacks. We apply graph-based techniques to correlating isolated attack scenarios derived from low-level alert correlation based on their relationship in attack plans. We conduct probabilistic inference to evaluate the likelihood of attack goal(s) and predict potential upcoming attacks based on observed attack activities. We evaluate our algorithms using DARPA's Grand Challenge Problem (GCP) data sets and live traffic data collected from our backbone network. The results show that our approach can effectively discover novel attack strategies, provide a quantitative analysis of attack scenarios and identify attack plans.

Tea is used to be Taiwan¡¦s primary exchange-earning product. And the way Taiwan tea develops further establishes the steadfast position for Taiwan tea leave in Oolong-tea market. From the aspect of section specialization, Taiwan tea is good in quality, equipped with potential competence, thus, worth cultivating. However, as long as open market is concerned, tea leave also suffers from high producing cost as other agrarian products; even harvested by machine and given up the outlook to reduce the cost, it still can¡¦t compete with import tea leave in price matter. Compared with former similar research, the breakthrough of this research is that it mainly focuses on tea runner¡¦s operational strategy analysis as well as the choice from scenario analysis. With economic globalization makes consumers¡¦ choice tend to be diverse as well as the importance of the manager facing the consumer in the first hand in the supply chain also increases with time, the effective strategy not only benefits the company runner, but also secures the profits of producers, further indirectly brings industrial stabilization. The environmental change by economic globalization, such as world trade organization, ECFA, which is the change in trade condition, will bring acute variation in the short run. The function which analyses the past data to evaluate change in the future is limited; therefore, the research is conducted through qualitative scenario analysis to analyze the tea market from the external condition. The research intends to cut in from the tea-runner¡¦s perspective. Through the process of scenario analysis, selecting the three external key factors based on strategic dimension that affects tea-runners: customer demand, supply management, policy and environment inclination, as well as the fifteen driving factors that influence dimension, it integrates and induces the two possible scenario of the uncertain axial structure: the situation of imported tea leave, and the difference in tea leave between Taiwan and China, which has impact on operational change in the future. Through deep interview, it¡¦s discovered that most of the managers believe that the development of Taiwan tea in the future lies in China¡¦s demand, but lack of effective method on grasping the business from Chinese¡¦s free travel. The research holds that the corporate runners should promote their reputation through Taiwanese businessmen and military dependents as an access to enter China market. In the scenario of continuing the recent status, the three strategies are suggested: expand the export affair in domestic retail, diversify in management, and specialize in management. As for the scenario of open challenge, it¡¦s advised that manager should rectify the name of Taiwan tea in China. And in the scenario of failure in export, diversify in management is recommended to tackle with this situation.

The rapid economic development in China has led to increasing freight transport, as well as fierce competition among the hubs in the region, such as Hong Kong, Busan, Kaohsiung Harbor, and new harbors in Shenzhen and Shanghai. The transport not only support the rapid development of harbors in the region but also result in intense port competition. The competitive advantages, such as location, facility, efficiency, and highly concentrated ship routes, possessed by the harbors are not everlasting. In the face of changing environment and competition, the competitive advantages may be lost. When competing in a different niche market, the location advantage may turn into disadvantage, even damaging its leading position in worse cases. In response to changes, harbor administrators should probe into the future trend in changes of the freight transport market, discuss all possible scenarios, sense the potential risks and opportunities, seize the opportunities and utilize the existing advantages to build up the competitive advantages for the future. Compared to Kaohsiung Harbor, harbors in China, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, as the entry gates to the main economic and trade zone in China and the central region in terms of sources of goods, have developed into regional pivot harbors. Due to the barrier of Cross-Strait direct shipping, some scholars in Taiwan believe that Kaohsiung Harbor is facing the problem of becoming periphery. However, even after the direct route comes into practice, the competition from harbors in China may be a threat to Kaohsiung Harbor, even occur haidding effects to take over its existing transit goods. The position of Kaohsiung Harbor may be challenged. This study investigates the potential influence of Cross-Strait direct shipping and the competition from China on the quantity of containers, route planning, and shipping business investment with questionnaire survey on sea transportation businesses, and constructs possible scenarios in short-term (2004-206), medium term (2007-2010), long-term (2011-2020). Before the Cross-Strait direct shipping into practice, Kaohsiung Harbor will continue to grow due to continuous economic development in the region. If the Cross-Strait direct shipping comes into practice or the Chinese government permits more direct shipping harbor, Southern China, Fukien, and Zhujiang Delta will become the main regions in terms of sources of goods. However, the rate of growth may not meet the expectation. In the long-term (2011-2020), due to the rapid of the quantity of containers in China and the transit ability of harbors in China, the route structure and the shipping business investment in Kaohsiung Harbor will suffer more obvious disadvantageous impact.

System Dynamics Model follow the procedure for ¡§data collecting ¡÷ model design ¡÷ analysis ¡÷ modification¡¨ to analyze problems on a project by project base; however, this process is just a principle report and it cannot directly and continuously affect business decision. Furthermore, after the completion of each project, data often is locked in the file room and cannot be reused. If simulation tools of System Dynamics allow user to connect the dynamics data source from the enterprise, potential benefits will be: 1. After analysis, with business data, model can be simulated time after time. This enable the repeating use of previous investment. 2. Decision makers can simulated condition of the future use the enterprise online data . The main purpose of this research at probe interaction of System Dynamics Model and data source. Under above-mentioned structure. In the phase, we propose to add a ¡§Data Source¡¨ component in traditional structure of the System Dynamics model. The new component will connected model and data source, and keep the independent executed of the model. And in addition to the design of the structure of the model, this research also according to the structure, design physical simulation tools ¡V we call the tool Maria. Maria can provide the function of building and simulating System Dynamics model like the traditional simulate tool, and connect model and dynamic data source. We use a simple model to prove the value of System Dynamics model and data source, and the future prospect of the structure.

Training emergency response decision makers using live, virtual and/or constructive simulations can be highly complex since certain situations can generate stimulusresponse cycles that depend significantly on unpredictable human judgments. In particular, effective training scenarios require a combination of content contributed via pre-authored scripts and content generated dynamically during the training exercise. Large-scale exercises require multiple domain experts contributing oversight and content to the scenario as it proceeds. Such real-time adaptation requires situational and group awareness based on an understanding of pre-scripted materials and the adaptations of others. This thesis describes the evolution and evaluation of a collaborative graphical timeline system, called the Scenario Timeline System (STS), which facilitates asynchronous and synchronous collaborative timeline management, and its application in large-scale, computer-supported emergency response training exercises.