Despite the uncertainties that exist within climate change projection models, the only way to reduce our vulnerability to future changes in sea level is to implement adaptation strategies. The primary goal should not be to determine a worst-case scenario, but instead to identify the most vulnerable areas first, and to gradually introduce phased adaptation strategies into relatively lower risk areas. The present study looks at how we assess the potential impacts of sea level rise and how we can make use of these assessments in planning and design practice. As a case study for impact and vulnerability assessments, the flood risk areas on the coast of Prince Edward Island are mapped and a method for conducting a vulnerability assessment for individual properties is proposed. Finally, design strategies that were generated through the assessment process are presented as examples of no-regrets adaptation strategies.

More frequent and harsh storms coupled with sea level rise are affecting Canada’s sensitive coastlines. This research studies Isle Madame in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia which has been designated by Natural Resource Canada as a sea level rise vulnerable coastal community in Canada. The research models the spatial and temporal impacts of sea level rise from storm surge by focusing on identifying vulnerable areas in the community via geographical information systems (GIS) using ArcGIS, as well as modeling dynamic coastal damage via system dynamics using STELLA. The research evaluates the impacts in terms of the environmental, social, cultural, economic pillars that profile the coastal community for a series of modelled Storm Scenarios. This research synthesizes information from a variety of sources including the coastal ecology and natural resources, as well as human society and socioeconomic indicators included in the four mentioned pillars. The objective of the research is to determine vulnerable areas on Isle Madame susceptible to storm damage, and consequently, to improve local community knowledge and preparedness to more frequent harsh storms. This research therefore presents a dynamic model for the evaluation of storm impacts in Isle Madame designed with the goal to help the community ultimately to plan and implement a strategy to adapt to pending environmental change.

It is no longer a question of scientific debate that research declares our climate is changing. One of the most important and visible impacts of this phenomenon is sea level rise which has impacts on coastal cities and island communities. Sea level rise also magnifies storm surges which can have severely damaging impacts on different human made infrastructure facilities near the shorelines in coastal zones. In this research we are concerned about the proximity of water systems as one of the most vulnerable infrastructures in the coastal zones because of the impact of stormwater combining with sewage water. In Canada, the government has plans to address these issues, but to date, there needs to be further attention to stormwater management in coastal zones across the country. This research discusses the impacts of severe environmental events, e.g., hurricanes and storm surge, on the water systems of selected coastal communities in Canada. The purpose of this research is to model coastal zone water systems using the open source StormWater Management Modelling (SWMM) software in order to manage stormwater and system response to storms and storm surge on water treatment plants in these areas. Arichat on Isle Madame, Cape Breton, one of the most sensitive coastal zones in Canada, is the focal point case study for this research as part of the C-Change International Community-University Research Alliance (ICURA) 2009-2015 project.

Numerous studies project that climate change will accelerate the rise in global sea levels, leading to increased coastal inundation, greater potential damage from storm surge events, beach erosion and other coastal impacts which threaten vital infrastructure and facilities that currently support the economies of island nations. There is a broad consensus amongst experts that small island developing states (SIDS) face the greatest risk to the projected impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, few sea level rise (SLR) impact assessment studies have been conducted in SIDS due to the limitations of the geospatial data with regard to currency, accuracy, relevance and completeness. This research improves upon previous SLR impact assessment research by utilizing advanced global digital elevation models to create coastal inundation scenarios in one metre increments for 19 Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations and member states, and then examine the implications for seven key impact indicators (land area, population, economic activity, urban areas, tourism resorts, transportation infrastructure and beach erosion). The results indicate that a one metre SLR would have serious consequences for CARICOM nations. For example under this scenario over 10% of the 73 identified study area airports and 30% of the 266 major tourism resorts were identified as prone to flooding. Projected effects were not found to be uniform across the region; low-lying island nations and mainland countries with coastal plains below ten metres were identified as the most vulnerable countries. Recommendations for adaptive actions and policies are provided.

A detailed geochronological and geochemical study has been undertaken on selected sediment cores from four lowland coastal marsh environments in Argyll, Western Scotland. This region of northern Britain has experienced differential crustal uplift and relative sea-level changes throughout the Holocene in response to glacio-isostatic adjustment. The complex interplay between land movements and relative sea-level continues to influence the morphological development of the Scottish coast. The study of lowland inter-tidal sedimentary environments from this region provides an opportunity to investigate the linkages between current estimated crustal movements, regional relative sea-level rise and the evolution of contemporary coastal saltmarshes derived from the record of historical sedimentation. The four sites are located across a ca. 70 km transect extending from the head of Loch Scridain (western Isle of Mull), across the Firth of Lorne to the head of Loch Etive, (mainland Argyll). Vertical activity distributions of the natural radionuclide 21OPb and anthropogenic isotopes (137Cs and 243Am) have been measured and are used to assess the depositional history of marsh sediment accumulation recorded in the four marsh cores. Down-core activity profiles of radionuclides are only reliable as a means of modelling recent marsh evolution provided no early-diagenetic (redox) reactions have compromised the historical depositional record within the marsh sediments. Solid-phase major and trace element down-core geochemical distributions provide a means of assessing the extent to which post-depositional (redox) reactions may have influenced the reliability of the radiometric dating methods. Marsh sediment geochemistry also serves as a useful proxy for identifying compositional variability over the period of marsh development investigated. Dating of the Argyll saltmarsh cores indicates that over the period corresponding to mature marsh conditions rates of sedimentation vary significantly across the study area. At Loch Scridain an average rate of 1.1 mm yr-1 corresponding to an historical period of ca. 130 years is recorded. Comparison with estimated rates of regional sea-level rise suggest an established asymptotic relationship between marsh accretion and coastal forcing, implying historical crustal stability at this site. At sites within the Firth of Lome (Loch Don and Loch Creran) average rates of 2.5 and 3.3 mm yr-1 are recorded for the ca. 70 year period to 1995 with a figure of 2.2 mm yr-1 recorded in the marsh core from the head of Loch Etive. These values are well in excess of estimated relative sea-level rise during the twentieth century suggesting that these marshes may not yet have reached full equilibrium with sea-level. Microfossil analysis of the Loch Etive core helps to identify a more complex depositional history with an underlying trend of marine transgression for the ca. 110 year period of marsh development recorded in these sediments. Over the most recent period of marsh development (ca. 5 years) a significant increase in the rate of marsh sedimentation at all sites is recorded. This signifies the response of these marshes to a very recent increase in the rate of relative sea-level rise across the region. Comparison with available storm frequency data indicates that the evolution of these marsh environments have not been subject to the influence of significant storm activity over the last in the late Twetieth century. The findings suggest that the more clastic sedimentary composition of the Argyll marshes results in these inter-tidal areas being extremely sensitive to changes in coastal forcing (sea-level rise). The implications of recent relative sea-level rise, current vertical crustal movements and future coastal management are discussed.

Coastal wetlands are globally important environments for biogeochemical cycling and are the object of intensive research related to the sequestration and exchange of carbon with oceans, continents, and the atmosphere. Wetland soil core records of organic carbon (OC) provide insights about future ecosystem responses to global change by identifying temporal variability in the context of environmental changes including sea level rise (SLR), anthropogenic reductions in freshwater flow, and landscape-scale disturbance events. My studies of Gulf of Mexico mangroves involved the use of radiometrically-dated soil cores to identify spatial and temporal accumulation trends of various constituents including organic and carbonate carbon, and macro-nutrients. My dissertation includes a literature review to assess the timescales of these processes and refine global perspectives on coastal wetland vulnerability. The contributions of organic and mineral matter to soil accretion (mm yr-1) was measured to (a) quantify how the supply of each may allow regional mangroves to keep pace with various SLR scenarios and, (b) assess wetland carbon sink capacity and stability in southwest Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Mangroves in this region are largely devoid of terrigenous mineral sediments, and it has been hypothesized that storm surge-driven accretion of marine sediments could improve the capability of these locations to keep pace with SLR. Rates of accretion and organic matter accumulation were statistically similar across all four study regions, whereas mineral deposition rates ranged over two orders of magnitude. The volumetric contribution of mineral sediment to accretion is minimized by its high density. Organic matter, whose porous structures allow for highly variable densities, can contribute to a wide range of accretion rates and is a strong predictor of accretion. Future sustainability of these wetlands is more strongly dependent on the balance between soil organic matter production and preservation than the provision of storm-derived mineral sediments. To understand how OC sequestration will respond to SLR, the spatial and temporal variability of OC burial rates (g m-2 yr-1) were examined across ecosystem gradients in salinity, nutrient availability and mangrove productivity in the coastal Everglades. Results showed relatively little spatial variability and indicated that OC burial in the region is slow compared to rates in mangroves globally. However, significant regional differences in OC burial were observed in the context of primary productivity. Over a centennial timescale, mid-stream sites sequestered roughly 22% of annual net primary production and upstream sites preserved less than 10%. Least efficient sequestration occurs in the oligohaline ecotone, where increases in groundwater salinities and the potential for sulfate reduction have been recorded in the past decade. These findings indicate a significant slowdown in OC burial, and suggest that accelerating SLR will cause a substantial loss of historically sequestered carbon. The loss and potential out-welling of this carbon (including particulate and dissolved organic matter, dissolved CO2, and carbonate alkalinity) has important and complex implications for neighboring marine ecosystems including coral reefs and seagrass meadows. Several recent high-profile publications have used 5–15 years of soil accumulation rates to model wetland SLR-vulnerability outcomes over the next 50–100 years. To provide perspectives on these models, data that were generated from observations on multiple timescales (sub-annual to millennial) around the globe were used in a meta-analysis to determine the role of observational timescale on assessment outcomes. This analysis focused on rates of accretion and elevation change because of the wide availability of these data. Results demonstrate that rates of soil-body change exhibit a dependence on the length of time over which observations are made. Timescale hierarchies are driven by post-depositional diagenesis, ecosystem state changes, and regional effects primarily related to hydrology and sediment supply. Longer periods of observation utilizing multiple geochronological methods are needed to differentiate trend-changes from apparent changes that, in fact, may be due to regular periodicity. A conceptual model is presented that categorizes and explains timescale hierarchies in a soil’s geochemical history.

The state of North Carolina is home to some of the most spectacular barrier islands in the world. These features are constantly shifting, impacted by waves, tides, and wind. Studies of the Outer Banks, North Carolina have resulted in varied results, but a detailed analysis of the barrier system as a whole is lacking. Using historic topographic surveys (T-sheets) from the 19th, the positions of various barrier segments were analyzed in relation to modern imagery. Changes in area, width, and center line locations were evaluated over the past 150 years. In total, 74 percent of modern transects have decreased in area. Total reductions in size were 130 km2 for the study period. Mean centerlines as a function of migration showed that 53 percent of segments were demonstrating directional movement away from the ocean. The average movement towards the bay between modern and historic centerlines was 8 meters. Thusly, barrier islands in North Carolina are demonstrating both decreases in total area and directional movement inland in response to sea level rise.

More frequent and harsh storms coupled with sea level rise are affecting Canada’s sensitive coastlines. This research studies Isle Madame in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia which has been designated by Natural Resource Canada as a sea level rise vulnerable coastal community in Canada. The research models the spatial and temporal impacts of sea level rise from storm surge by focusing on identifying vulnerable areas in the community via geographical information systems (GIS) using ArcGIS, as well as modeling dynamic coastal damage via system dynamics using STELLA. The research evaluates the impacts in terms of the environmental, social, cultural, economic pillars that profile the coastal community for a series of modelled Storm Scenarios. This research synthesizes information from a variety of sources including the coastal ecology and natural resources, as well as human society and socioeconomic indicators included in the four mentioned pillars. The objective of the research is to determine vulnerable areas on Isle Madame susceptible to storm damage, and consequently, to improve local community knowledge and preparedness to more frequent harsh storms. This research therefore presents a dynamic model for the evaluation of storm impacts in Isle Madame designed with the goal to help the community ultimately to plan and implement a strategy to adapt to pending environmental change.

It is no longer a question of scientific debate that research declares our climate is changing. One of the most important and visible impacts of this phenomenon is sea level rise which has impacts on coastal cities and island communities. Sea level rise also magnifies storm surges which can have severely damaging impacts on different human made infrastructure facilities near the shorelines in coastal zones. In this research we are concerned about the proximity of water systems as one of the most vulnerable infrastructures in the coastal zones because of the impact of stormwater combining with sewage water. In Canada, the government has plans to address these issues, but to date, there needs to be further attention to stormwater management in coastal zones across the country. This research discusses the impacts of severe environmental events, e.g., hurricanes and storm surge, on the water systems of selected coastal communities in Canada. The purpose of this research is to model coastal zone water systems using the open source StormWater Management Modelling (SWMM) software in order to manage stormwater and system response to storms and storm surge on water treatment plants in these areas. Arichat on Isle Madame, Cape Breton, one of the most sensitive coastal zones in Canada, is the focal point case study for this research as part of the C-Change International Community-University Research Alliance (ICURA) 2009-2015 project.

Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) impacts the displacement of the world’s coasts and shorelinedifferently due to it being contingent on local topographic and geological conditions. The island of Gotlandis located in the Fennoscandian Shield which lies at the intersection between GMSLR and post-glacialrebound (PGR), at rates that vary latitudinally and, in some areas, are at equal levels. Therefore, the future for the shorelines on the Swedish island can be uncertain due to the shoreline displacement being non-uniform. In this thesis, Själsö, a village located on the north-eastern coast of the island with a higher GMSLR than PGR rate was studied to analyse the shoreline displacement and temporally project thepermanent inundation of the study area. Through a more a deductive analysis, the inundation of the studyarea is projected to take place in approx. 4000 yr. This result was compared with the results from anothermore inductive analysis based on finding displacement rates of the study area through satellite and aerialimagery presenting a wide-ranging results based on two particular set of data, early and late displacementrates. The former inductive results yielded a range between 177-211 yr. while the latter inductive resultsyielded a range between 500-588 yr. The inductive results suggest that the GMSLR is not the onlycontributing factor but also accounts for short-term SLR fluctuations, with the later displacementprojections being slightly more accurate than the early when comparing their results with the deductivelycalculated projection that only takes the GMSLR into consideration.