Thesis advisor: Arthur Lewbel / This dissertation consists of two independent studies that seek to improve public policies in developing country context. I first study how anti-poverty programs in developing countries can improve their screening procedure so that they can better direct resources to the poor over time. Then, I investigate the impacts of trade openness on fertility decisions in countries known for son preference, thereby informing governments in those countries of the unintended consequences of such growth-focused trade policies. In the first chapter, “Bunching and Learning in Targeting Poverty: Evidence from Vietnam,” I examine how households manipulate eligibility criteria in order to appear eligible for an anti-poverty program. Despite ample evidence that households manipulate these criteria, little is known about how such behaviors evolve over time in a long-term program. Using data from Vietnam, I find that, early on in each phase of its National Anti-Poverty Program, about 1-2% of the population (or 8-18% relative to the program size) bunch at the official income cutoff in order to appear eligible. However, this fraction falls by 60-100% towards the end of the phase, only to increase yet again when a new phase starts with a new income cutoff. To explain this temporal pattern of bunching, I develop a model in which over time the program staff learn to rely on housing conditions, a less-manipulable criteria, to select households. This refined information, in turns, discourages households from manipulating their income. I find that an increase of 0.5 standard deviation in the housing quality index further reduces the chance of being accepted to the program by 25.11% after two years. Meanwhile, other criteria, including reported income and asset holdings, do not contribute any additional predictive power to the program status over the same period. Without this learning process, the program would have misallocated about 1.7%, or equivalently 32.3-36.4 million USD (PPP), of its budget to non-poor households during the first phase of the program. In the second chapter, “Why does the sex ratio at birth rise? Evidence from Vietnam,” joint with Nghiem Huynh, we investigate the causal link between a major trade agreement between the US and Vietnam and the rise in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam. We test three theories of the rise in sex ratio at birth and find evidence that the fertility mechanism explains the recent increase in Vietnam. Using the 2001 US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement as an exogenous shock, we show that mothers exposed to larger tariff cuts are more likely to have boys, work more hours and less likely to give birth. These results hold up when we account for other competing mechanisms, including changes in fathers' exposure to the policy and daughters’ economic returns in repeated cross-sectional and panel data. This chapter highlights the trade-off between work and children for mothers, and the potential role of trade policy in heightening this trade-off, leading to lower fertility and higher sex selection. Although both studies are situated in Vietnam, their results and implications are relevant to policy discussions in many developing countries. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2023. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

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De l'Albanie à la Chine, différents pays dans le monde sont affectés par des déséquilibres du rapport de masculinité à la naissance. Le Viêt Nam est de ceux parmi lesquels le phénomène est le plus récent, mais la hausse mesurée depuis 2006 est extrêmement rapide : il s'établit aujourd'hui à 112 naissances de garçons pour 100 naissances de filles au niveau national, et excède 120 dans plusieurs provinces. Au Viêt Nam, cette hausse est exclusivement liée à la sélection sexuelle prénatale, qui résulte de la combinaison de trois facteurs (Guilmoto, 2009), que cette recherche se propose de comprendre. Les couples qui ont recours aux avortements sexo-sélectifs sont disposés à le faire (facteur de demande), parce qu'ils ont une préférence pour les garçons liée à différents arguments sociaux, culturels et économiques. Ils en ont également la possibilité (facteur d'offre), grâce à la légalité du recours à l'avortement provoqué et à l'accès aux échographies qui s'est généralisé au cours de la dernière décennie, dans la majorité des zones urbaines et rurales. Enfin, il y a un facteur de pression, exercée par le faible niveau de fécondité - allant de 1,7 à 2,6 enfants par femme selon les régions en 2009 -, qui accroît le risque de ne pas avoir de fils. S'il existe de fortes disparités régionales dans les statistiques de la masculinité des naissances, partiellement liées à des différences de fécondité et de prospérité, ce sont les variations dans l'intensité de la préférence pour les garçons qui expliquent en premier lieu cette diversité. Le Delta du Fleuve Rouge, dans le Nord, est marqué par un système de parenté patriarcal et patrilinéaire, dans lequel avoir un fils apparaît indispensable pour légitimer le statut des femmes au sein de leur famille et de la société. La situation au sud du Viêt Nam apparaît plus complexe : la mixité de la descendance est privilégiée, en raison notamment du brassage culturel des Khmer bilatéraux et des Cham matrilinéaires, avec les Kinh traditionnellement patrilinéaires, qui s'est développé à travers les siècles. En outre, le Doi Moi à la fin des années 80 et la libéralisation du marché économique ont entraîné un désengagement de l'État de nombreuses structures sociales collectives et engendré une résurgence des traditions rituelles et familiales, qui ont renforcé la dimension patriarcale de la société; c'est cependant moins marqué dans le Sud, en raison de la fracture qui s'est établie durant plusieurs décennies du XXe siècle entre les deux parties du pays. Ce travail de thèse associe une analyse statistique approfondie des données du recensement de 2009 et de l'enquête intercensitaire 2014, et une étude sociologique des différents rôles de genre au sein du couple et de la famille, notamment grâce à la conduite de trois enquêtes qualitatives au Nord et au Sud du Viêt Nam. Il décrit les variations régionales de la préférence de genre, et compare les effets distincts de plusieurs caractéristiques (notamment zone urbaine ou rurale, niveau d'éducation, statut socio-économique, origine ethnique, composition sexuelle de la descendance) sur les comportements de fécondité. / From Albania to China, several countries in the world experience unbalanced Sex Ratio at Birth. In Vietnam, the phenomenon is very recent (2006), but rapidly increasing. Currently, the national sex ratio at birth is 112 boys for 100 girls, and exceeds 120 in several provinces. The rising proportion of male births is directly linked to prenatal sex selection, that is abortion of female fetuses. It results from the combination of three factors (Guilmoto, 2009): expanding access to ultrasonography and abortion in both urban and rural areas (supply factor), low fertility level increasing the risk of remaining « sonless » (squeeze factor) and preference for sons (demand factor). However, important regional disparities exist, partly associated with differences in fertility and prosperity levels. But discrepancies in son preference appear to be the main factor. Northern Vietnam presents a very strong preference for sons, linked to a patriarchal descent system, where the birth of a son legitimizes women's status within their family and the society. However, mixed offspring is privileged in the South, since cultural mixing of bilateral Khmer and matrilineal Cham people, with Kinh population traditionally patrilineal, developed through centuries. Moreover, the Doi Moi economic reforms in the 80's lead the State to withdraw from collective social structures and yielded a resurgence of ritual and familial traditions, which reinforced the patriarcal aspect of society; however the split of the country for several decades during the 20th century makes it less noticeable in the South. This thesis combines statistical analysis of the 2009 census data and the 2014 intercensal survey, and a sociological study of different gender roles within couples and families, based on three qualitatives surveys conducted in Northern and Southern Vietnam. It describes regional variations of gender preference, and compares the distinct effects of several characteristics (including rural/urban areas, level of education, socio-economic status, ethnicity, sex composition of offspring) on fertility behaviors.

The thesis is mainly focused on the analysis and evaluation of the effects influencing the sex ratio of live births. After studying of the foreign language literature, main factors influencing the sex ratio are defined. Data used in the thesis (births by the sex) are retrieved from The Human Mortality Database, database of United Nations Statistics Division and from particular statistical offices. Based on the results of the exploratory data analysis, countries with unreliable data (data skewed due to the manipulation or due to the not appropriate standard of the registration of born) are specified. Subsequently, the countries with abnormal values of the sex ratio at birth resulting from the cultural traditions or technological development are defined. For countries with not evident influence of the factors mentioned the analysis of the relations and dependencies between sex ratio at birth and variables chosen (groups of the geographical, socioeconomics and demographical impacts). On the basis of this analysis it has been proved that the sex ratio at birth depends primarily, but not exclusively, on the total fertility rate and life expectancy.

Chapter 1: This paper offers new causal evidence on how the timing of prenatal temperature shocks affects fetal health, sex ratio at birth, and early-age human capital. Analyzing data on nearly 2 million live births from sub-Saharan African countries and exploiting exogenous spatial and temporal variation in monthly temperature, we uncover three findings. First, we find that a cold temperature shock decreases the likelihood of a male birth. This effect is non-linear, being larger in the first and third trimesters of pregnancy. It is also highly heterogeneous, being larger for older women, higher parity births, and rural areas. Second, combining our empirical estimates with a climate model, we find that the number of fetal deaths caused by climate change will rise from 200 to 400 per 100,000 live births by 2050 throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Third, in contrast to their differential effect on fetal mortality, prenatal temperature shocks increase infant mortality more for females than for males, suggesting that only healthier male fetuses survive to adverse in utero conditions. Our analysis implies that the design of policies to avert the negative impacts of climate change on children should account for stages of fetal development. Chapter 2: Despite its enormous individual and social costs; the fundamental and long- run causes of cognitive aging remain understudied. We study the causal effect of in-utero temperature exposure on cognition during old age. Combining unique data on South African adults between 40 and 99 years of age with geospatial information on historical temperatures, our identification strategy exploits exogenous, within-municipality-of-birth, month-to-month variations in temperature, and controls for contemporaneous weather and location at the time of survey administration. We find that temperature in the first trimester of pregnancy negatively affects the cognitive function score later in life, but temperature in the second and third trimesters has a positive effect on adults cognitive function score. These differing effects result in an overall U-shaped relationship between prenatal exposure to temperature and cognition. This non-linear relationship is robust across measures of memory, reasoning, and information processing speed. Our findings are consistent with the fetal programming theory, which holds that the first trimester of pregnancy is the most crucial window of brain formation. In accordance with this theory, brain development occurring in the first trimester of pregnancy would therefore have the highest vulnerability to external shocks. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of prenatal temperature on cognition is larger for men, individuals over 75 years of age, and individuals with low social capital. Analyzing causal mechanisms, we find that prenatal temperature affects key determinants of individuals' cognitive reserve. We also find that exposure to drought during the first trimester of pregnancy and reduced sleep during adulthood are other potential channels through which the effects of prenatal exposure to temperature operate. Chapter 3: A large literature seeking to understand the labor market impacts associated with the clean energy transitions broadly finds opposite effects. On the one hand, a net positive impact on the workforce i.e. the new green jobs created in renewable energy sectors will compensate for the jobs lost in fossil-fuel sectors, while on the other hand, the so-called regulated dirty energy sector will reduce the fraction of workers hired. However, empirical and simulation models typically ignore transitional impacts associated with environmental regulations on labour. These relate to how workers adjust over time to environmental regulations, not just the steady state impact that is the focus of prior studies. We evaluate an environmental regulation (Ontario coal-fired electricity generating plants phase-out) regarding its transitional and long-term impacts on employee's outcomes including (i) wages; (ii) unemployment insurance; (iii) sector mobility; and (iv) geographic location. Using the Longitudinal Worker File (LWF) and Postal Codes Conversion File (PCCF) maintained by Statistics Canada, we estimate the labor market impacts of clean energy policy by comparing employees from affected coal plants to a comparable group of employees from non-affected plants. We find that, workers exposed to Ontario phase-out coal policy have earned on average 7000 $ CAD yearly less compared to those who weren't exposed. Our findings are consistent across a set of alternative specifications and robustness checks. Moreover, results from the event study approach suggest that the regulation leads to labor costs with the de- cline of wages just in transition. We provide supportive evidence on large labor costs due to environmental regulation policy and shed lights on the importance of reforms and training programs to support workers during the transition.