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Type 2 diabetes is a significant health problem because of its high prevalence and strong association with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. An increase of type 2 diabetes is predicted due to increasing obesity and sedentary lifestyle habits. The development from latent to diagnostic disease spans many years and during this time it is possible to prevent or postpone type 2 diabetes using lifestyle and pharmacological interventions. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and describe early patterns and risk indicators of type 2 diabetes. The focus is on type 2 diabetes as one component in metabolic syndrome, i.e. the clustering of several cardiovascular risk markers. Two studies based on the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) provided the data; one case-referent study nested within VIP which includes 237 diabetes cases that were clinically diagnosed 5.4 years after the health survey, each with two referents; and one panel study with 5 consecutive annual cohorts including subjects that participated in VIP between1990 and 1994 and returned to a follow-up after 10 years, a total of 16 492 individuals. Associations between risk markers and type 2 diabetes or metabolic syndrome are evaluated by several statistical techniques. A model of metabolic syndrome is hypothesized. A prediction model for developing type 2 diabetes among middle-aged individuals is proposed, where high risk is defined as having at least two out of three risk criteria (fasting plasma glucose ≥6.1 mmol/L, HbA1c ≥4.7% (Swedish Mono-S standard) and BMI ≥27 in men and BMI ≥30 in women). With positive predictive values of 32% in men and 46% in women, this model performs at least as well as other published prediction models. Information on family history of diabetes does not improve the result and the cumbersome oral glucose tolerance test is not needed. Therefore this model should be feasible for use in routine care. A model of metabolic syndrome with five composite factors, based on 14 variables including markers produced by adipose tissue and b-cells, suggest that obesity with insulin resistance and b-cell decompensation are the core perturbations in the early stages of type 2 diabetes, while inflammation and dyslipidemia could not be shown to be independent early risk indicators. The composite factors do not improve the prediction as compared to the single markers of fasting glucose, BMI and proinsulin and, possibly blood pressure values. Stress (measured as passive or tense working conditions) and weak social support (measured as emotional support), are suggested to be strong risk indicators along with high BMI for type 2 diabetes in women. In men BMI is predictive, but the stress variables are not shown to be associated with future type 2 diabetes. A social gap is indicated by double risk of metabolic syndrome among subjects with low (≤ 9 years at school) compared to high education (≥ 13 years). High consumption of Swedish smokeless tobacco, snuff (>4 cans/week), is independently associated with metabolic syndrome, obesity and hypertriglyceridemia, but not with dysregulation of glucose. To conclude, single markers, that are commonly used in daily practice, are useful and sufficient for identification of subjects that are in the early stages of type 2 diabetes. Obesity with insulin resistance and b-cell decompensation are the core perturbations in early development to T2DM. Lifestyle, socioeconomic and psychosocial markers, in addition to biomarkers, are important determinants of future type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome, albeit not similarly among men and women.

Abstract Although smoking in adolescents and young adults has been declining in the 21st century in Finland, about 17% of 18-year-olds still smoke on a daily basis. Young adults are in fact one of the age groups that are most likely to smoke in several countries. Nevertheless, a large proportion of them are known to want to quit smoking. Relatively little is known about the smoking habits of young adults. There are no evidence-based guidelines for smoking cessation in this age group. In many cases, they have been included within studies of adolescents or older adults without any separate analysis. Consequently, smoking cessation interventions demonstrated to be effective in middle-aged smokers are often adapted for young adults even though their culture, somatic features and smoking habits in many ways are different from those of middle-aged people. This study focused on 18–26-year-olds in northern parts of Finland. Specific aims were 1) to describe their smoking habits, 2) to compare health and lifestyle in tobacco users and non-tobacco users, 3) to study their nicotine dependence and motivation to quit smoking, and 4) to examine the use and effectiveness of smoking cessation pharmacotherapy in this age group. A total of 1163 male military recruits from northern parts of Finland filled in the study questionnaire. The survey study revealed that young adult males in northern parts of the country used tobacco products relatively often. Their smoking was associated with lower education, higher body mass index, inactivity in sports and impaired physical fitness. In addition, a great part of young smokers displayed symptoms of chronic bronchitis. Although most daily smokers were clearly dependent on nicotine and had previously tried to quit smoking, only 47% of the quitters had utilized any pharmacological aids in their attempts. Snus use seemed to be related to more severe nicotine dependence in smokers. The prospective study consisted of 314 voluntary young adult daily smokers who were motivated to quit smoking. The study was a randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial, and the results indicated that varenicline might be more effective than nicotine patches in smoking cessation of young adult heavy smokers, at least in short term. Abstinence rates during the follow-up were similar when the nicotine patch and placebo patch were compared in young adult light smokers. / Tiivistelmä Suomessa nuorten keskuudessa tupakointi on ollut 2000-luvun aikana laskusuuntainen. Kuitenkin arviolta n. 17 % 18-vuotiaista tupakoi edelleen päivittäin. Nuoret aikuiset ovatkin useissa maissa yksi eniten tupakoivia ikäryhmiä. Silti suuren osan tupakoivista nuorista aikuisista on todettu olevan halukkaita llopettamaan tupakoinnin. Nuorten aikuisten tupakointia on tutkittu verrattain vähän. Heille suunnattuja tieteelliseen näyttöön perustuvia hoitomuotoja tupakoinnin lopettamiseen ei ole. He ovat usein osana teini-ikäisten tai vaihtoehtoisesti vanhempien aikuisten ryhmää tupakointiin liittyvissä tutkimuksissa, eikä heitä yleensä ole analysoitu erikseen. Usein heitä hoidetaankin keski-ikäisiltä aikuisilta saadun tutkimusnäytön pohjalta. Kuitenkin nuorten kulttuuri, biologinen pohja ja tupakointitavat eroavat merkittävästi vanhemmista tupakoitsijoista. Tämä työ on keskittynyt tutkimaan 18–26-vuotiaita nuoria aikuisia Pohjois-Suomessa. Sen tavoitteina on ollut 1) kuvata heidän tupakointitottumuksiaan, 2) selvittää tupakoinnin yhteyttä terveyteen ja elämäntapaan, 3) tutkia heidän nikotiiniriippuvuuttaan sekä motivaatiota lopettaa tupakointi, sekä 4) selvittää tupakkavieroituslääkkeiden käyttöä ja niiden tehoa tässä ikäryhmässä. Terveystottumuskyselyymme vastasi 1163 Pohjois-Suomen varusmiestä. Selvisi, että varusmiehet käyttivät tupakkatuotteita Pohjois-Suomessa valtakunnallisia arvioita enemmän. Tupakoinnin todettiin liittyvän varusmiehillä alempaan koulutustasoon, suurentuneeseen painoindeksiin, vähäisempään fyysiseen aktiivisuuteen ja huonompaan aerobiseen suorituskykyyn. Lisäksi tupakoivilla varusmiehillä kroonisen bronkiitin oireet olivat yleisiä. Vaikka valtaosa heistä oli selvästi nikotiiniriippuvaisia ja oli yrittänyt lopettaa tupakointinsa, vain 47% lopetusta yrittäneistä oli kokeillut tupakkavieroituslääkettä. Nuuskan käyttö vaikutti liittyvän vahvempaan nikotiiniriippuvuuteen tupakoitsijoilla. Prospektiiviseen, satunnaistettuun ja lumekontrolloituun kliiniseen kokeeseen osallistui 314 vapaaehtoista päivittäin tupakoivaa nuorta aikuista, jotka olivat halukkaita tupakoinnin lopetukseen. Tulokset viittasivat siihen, että varenikliini saattaa olla nikotiinilaastaria tehokkaampi tupakoinnista vieroituksessa vahvasti nikotiiniriippuvaisilla nuorilla aikuisilla ainakin lyhyellä aikavälillä. Kevyemmin tupakasta riippuvaisilla nikotiinilaastari ei ollut lumelaastaria tehokkaampi.