It¡¦s recently with increasing frequency of ¡§divided government¡¨ caused by ¡§split-ticket voting¡¨, the straight- and split-ticket voting acts of electors are set great stores by the studies of voting attitude. The major and councilor elections in the end of 2002 was just right the model of straight- and split-ticket voting study that elector could vote major and councilor, which are with or without the same party. Both the aggregate- and individual-level data were analyzed in this study. The aggregate data announced by Central Election Commission was assay by King EI model to evaluate the ratio of the four voting categories. The individual-level data made after elections was based on the ¡§2002 Taiwan¡¦s Election and Democratization Study¡¨ (TEDS 2002), which was by visiting electors, and the Survey Center of National Sun Yat-sen University (NSYU), which was by phone call. The survey data of Kaohsiung elections was analyzed to find the main factors that influence the straight- and split-ticket voting, and this may help to find the true manner of voting behavior. Based on the unusually political environment, this study defined the particular ¡§general sense¡¨ straight- and split-ticket voting, including ¡§blue¡¨ and ¡§green¡¨ camps. By cross-table and logit model analysis, the properties of split-ticket voters and the recessive voters which were exclude in ¡§narrow sense¡¨ were identified. Finally, the major cause of split-ticket voting is the satisfaction of political affairs, and the principal cause of straight-ticket voting is the identification of political parties.

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鑑於我國分裂投票研究多數著重於縣市層級的地方首長與民意代表選舉，本文探討台灣首次於同日舉行的2012年總統暨立法委員選舉，援引「政治矛盾」（political ambivalence）做為研究架構，分析選民的一致與分裂投票。作者假設，選民的政治矛盾程度愈高，愈可能進行分裂投票；反之，民眾的政治矛盾態度愈低，愈可能採取一致投票。作者擷取「2009年至2012年『選舉與民主化調查』三年期研究規劃（3/3）：2012年總統與立法委員選舉面訪案」調查資料，運用「勝算對數模型」（Binary Logit）與「多項勝算對數模型」（Multinomial Logit）進行檢證。資料顯示，在總統與區域立法委員選舉，以及總統與不分區立委選舉的分裂投票實證模型中，在控制其他變數的效應之下，選民的政治矛盾態度對於分裂與一致投票，確實具有顯著影響。此外，選民的省籍、制衡觀與政策平衡等因素，也與一致與分裂投票有關。在結論中，本文摘述分析要點，並提出政治矛盾態度的研究意涵。 / In light of many election studies on straight and split ticket voting for the head of local government and councilors in Taiwan, I focus on people's ticket splitting of the 2012 presidential and legislative campaign which is the first election holding on one day. This article introduces political "ambivalence" to explain why people vote split or not. I assume the voters who have more ambivalent about KMT and DPP, more ticket splitting; and the straight ticket voters should be less ambivalence. My dates are based on "Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2012: Presidential and Legislative Election," and analyzed with Binary Logit and Multinomial Logit. When controlling other variables, party ambivalence intensively affects voters' straight and split ticket voting not only for president and constituency legislators but for president and party block legislators, and nearly all coefficients are statistically significant. By the way, provincial origin, cognitive Madisonianism, and policy balancing on independence issue or social welfare correlate to straight and split ticket voting in models. I conclude the major findings and research limitations at the end.

一九九八年台北市市長選舉中，影響選舉結果最大的是外省籍選民及新黨選民「分裂投票」現象。大量新黨選民在市長選舉中一面倒地投票給國民黨候選人馬英九，不過市議員、立法委員仍舊投給新黨則是導致這種現象出現的主因。常態下，擁有高滿意度的在位者，常能連任。而在任內施政滿意度常常保持在七成以上的市長陳水扁落選，是相當令人意外的。筆者認為這種現象值得作有系統的分析。 本文利用政治大學選舉研究中心的抽樣調查面訪資料，針對一九九八年台北市選舉中選民分裂投票的行為進行深入分析。本文歸納影響選民分裂投票的六個模型，利用六個模型經過對數成敗比模型的比較，在控制人口基本背景因素之後（性別、年齡、教育程度及籍貫），發現模型影響選民分裂投票的情況：一是政黨認同強度減弱的政黨解組作用導致選民分裂投票。雖然政黨認同在模型中具有明顯的影響力，但台北市近年來並未有政黨解組的趨勢，因此政黨認同減弱並非分裂投票的主因。二為選民的省籍，尤其是外省籍選民分裂投票行為相當明顯，其中年輕世代比年紀大的世代更形嚴重。第三則是統獨議題及相關的中國人/台灣人認同。研究結果發現統獨議題對選民分裂投票不具顯著影響力，但中國人/台灣人則對於市長與立法委員之間的分裂投票有明顯影響力；第四是候選人形象中的裙帶效應並不顯著，對分裂投票與否之間不具明顯差異。五為選民分立制衡觀念。在相同層級的市府及議會之間選民具有分立制衡的觀念，想藉政黨之間相互制衡的方式保護民眾的最大福祉，故採取分裂投票的行為。中央及地方制衡的觀念則不具影響力。第六則為新黨的選民策略投票是影響選民分裂投票的重要因素。新黨選民對於尋求連任的民進黨市長候選人陳水扁相當反感，且新黨市長候選人王建□當選機會不大的情況下，選擇轉投給國民黨馬英九之策略投票，並進而形成分裂投票。從六個模型最後推論的結果，真正決定選民分裂與否最重要的因素是選民的省籍背景導致的情感反應及新黨選民的策略投票。而這兩者的關聯又非常密切。 / Split ticket voting by New Party identifiers and Mainlanders had a crucial influence on the outcome of the 1998 Taipei City mayoral election. Large numbers of voters who identified themselves as New Party supporters voted for the KMT mayoral candidate. However, in the concurrent Legislative Yuan and City Council elections, they voted for New Party candidates. Normally, an incumbent with extremely high approval ratings will win re-election easily, but in this case Chen Shui-bian lost the mayoral race. This surprising result is worth researching. This thesis uses face-to-face interview data collected after the 1998 election. To analyze split ticket voting behavior, we consider six different logit models. After controlling basic demographic variables, including sex, age, education, and ethnic background, it is possible to discover what influences split ticket voting. First, weakening party identification can induce a dealignment process. This, in turn, gives rise to split ticket voting. In the data, the intensity of party identification has an obvious effect on split ticket voting. However, there has been no dealignment. Thus, weakening party identification is not the main reason for split ticket voting. The second factor is ethnic background. Mainlanders, especially young and middle aged voters, are more likely to split their tickets. Third, the related questions of unification or independence and Taiwanese or Chinese identification also have influence. The effect of the unification/independence position is not significant, but the respondents’ ethnic identity is. A fourth finding is that there is no significant coattail effect influencing split ticket voting. Fifth, many voters wish to balance the parties against each other, and so they split their votes. However, this only holds for offices at the same level (mayor and city council) and not for different levels (local and national). Sixth, strategic voting by New Party supporters was very important. New Party supporters were very opposed to Chen Shui-bian, and the New Party nominee did not have much chance of winning. As a result, many split their votes, voting strategically for the KMT mayoral candidate. After examining the six models, we find that the most important factors influencing split ticket voting are ethnic background and strategic voting by New Party supporters. These two factors are intimately connected, of course.

本篇論文的研究目的在探討美國選民的分裂投票行為, 以一九九二年的選舉為研究對象. 資料來源是1992年ＮＥＳ的資料. 本文所指的--分裂投票, 是指選民在該年的總統與眾議員選舉中, 分別投給不同政黨的候選人. 茲分成以下章節一一探討. 第一章包含研究動機, 文獻檢閱, 與研究方法. 在本章中, 我們將美國有關分 裂投票的研究, 做了全面性的探討, 並配合一九九二年特殊的選舉環境, 建構屬於本文的假設. 第二章是在探討分裂投票選民的特質. 第三章則是探討政黨認同對選民分裂投票行為的影響. 當選民的政黨認同越弱時, 選民越傾向分裂投票,合乎我們的假設. 在政黨認同的方向上, 在一九九二年民主黨的認同者比較傾向一致 投票. 第四章在探討候選人因素對分裂投票的影響. 在1980年代的文獻中,相當強調候選人因素的影響, 特別是國會的現任者, 常常是造成選民分裂投票的誘因. 但是在1992年的選舉中, 無論是總統或眾議員候選人都不強. 因此我們認為1992年選民分裂投票的誘因, 應該是議題因素. 在第五章中,我們藉由經濟性投票模式及政策中和模式, 來解釋1992年選民的分裂投票行為.