Hypertension is the number one cause of death worldwide. Low-grade inflammation has been identified as one of the mechanisms contributing to blood pressure elevation and remodeling of the vasculature in hypertension. Mechanisms involved in vascular inflammation and hypertension remain elusive. Vasoactive peptides such as endothelin-1 (ET-1) and angiotensin II (Ang II), oxidative stress and infiltration of immune cells are increased in cardiovascular tissues of hypertensive individuals. Since the vasculature is a major regulator of blood pressure levels, the hypothesis has been proposed that vascular inflammatory responses contribute to development of hypertension. / Objectives of this thesis were 1) to investigate the role of T cells in development of vascular inflammation observed in genetically hypertensive rats, 2) to identify vascular sources of reactive oxygen species production in mineralocorticoid-induced hypertension and 3) to study the effect of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-gamma activators on vascular pro-inflammatory signaling pathways in Ang II-induced hypertension. / The first study that is part of this thesis shows that the transfer of chromosome 2 from normotensive to hypertensive rats reduces plasma levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, expression of adhesion molecules and infiltration of T cells in aorta as well as resulting in lower blood pressure levels. These effects are accompanied by increased regulatory T cell mediators. We discovered that regulatory T cells are regulated by chromosome 2 and may be responsible for reducing inflammatory responses in hypertensive rats. / The second study of this thesis demonstrates in DOCA-salt hypertensive rats that superoxide (·O2-) production originates in part from xanthine oxidase activity induced by the ET-1 system and from mitochondrial sources, particularly complex II of the respiratory chain. We thus have uncovered two sources of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that can stimulate inflammatory responses in hypertension, since vascular ·O 2- production in this model was shown to induce vascular inflammation. / The third study of the thesis shows that activators of PPAR-gamma reduce blood pressure levels and signaling pathways including Akt/PKB, SHIP2, ERK1/2, 4E-BP1 in aorta and resistance arteries in Ang II-induced hypertension. PPARy acts as an anti-inflammatory transcription factor, and the present study suggests that Ang II down-regulates PPAR-gamma activity to exert its pro-inflammatory effects. / In conclusion, by targeting inflammatory mediators, it may be possible to reduce blood pressure levels in hypertensive animals. This suggests that inflammatory responses may play a crucial role in development of high blood pressure.

<p>Conclusion of this study: These data suggest that 6 weeks of high-fat feeding induces hypertension but does not produce obesity, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance. However, this model may be useful in studying vascular reactivity in hypertension in the absence of insulin resistance.</p>

Background and Purpose: The endothelium is a single-cell layer positioned at the blood-vascular wall interface, where in response to blood-borne signals and hemodynamic forces, endothelial cells act as central regulators of vascular homeostatic processes including vascular tone, growth and remodeling, inflammation and adhesion, and blood fluidity and coagulation. Agonist- or flow-stimulated endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation becomes impaired in states of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and has been identified as a possible biomarker of overall endothelial dysfunction leading to vascular dysregulation and disease pathogenesis. Accordingly, it is important to elucidate the mechanisms accounting for this endothelial vasomotor dysfunction. Upon stimulation, endothelial cells can synthesize and release a variety of endothelium-derived relaxing factors (EDRFs), the most prominent of which is nitric oxide (NO) derived from NO synthase (NOS). In addition, under certain CVD risk conditions including hypertension and aging, stimulated endothelial cells can become a prominent source of endothelium-derived contracting factors (EDCFs) produced in a cyclooxygenase (COX)-dependent manner. Consequently, endothelial dysfunction may be caused by under-active EDRF signaling and/or competitive over-active EDCF signaling. Much attention has been given to elucidating the mechanisms of under-active EDRF signaling and its role in causing endothelial dysfunction, wherein excess reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulation and oxidative stress under CVD risk conditions have been recognized as major factors in reducing NO bioavailability thus causing under-active EDRF signaling and endothelial dysfunction. Less attention however, has been given to elucidating the mechanisms of over-active COX-mediated EDCF signaling and its role in causing endothelial dysfunction. Moreover, while COX-mediated EDCF signaling activity has been investigated in some segments of the vasculature, most notably the aorta, it has not been well-investigated in the common carotid artery (CCA), a highly accessible cerebral blood flow conduit particularly advantageous in exploring the roles of the endothelium in vascular pathogenesis. It was the global purpose of this thesis to gain a better understanding of the cellular-molecular mechanisms accounting for endothelial dysfunction in the CCA of animal models known to exhibit COX-mediated EDCF signaling activity, in particular essential (spontaneous) hypertension and aging. Experimental Objective and Approach: This thesis comprises three studies. Study I and Study II investigated the CCA of young-adult (16-24wk old) normotensive Wistar Kyoto (WKY) and Spontaneously Hypertensive (SHR) rats. Study III investigated the CCA of Adult (25-36wks old) and Aging (60-75wks old) Sprague Dawley (SD) rats treated in vivo (or not; CON) with L-buthionine sulfoximine (BSO) to chronically deplete the cellular anti-oxidant glutathione (GSH) and increase ROS accumulation and oxidative stress. The global objective and approach across these studies was to systematically examine the relative contributions of NOS and COX signaling pathways in mediating the acetylcholine (ACh)-stimulated endothelium-dependent relaxation (EDRF) and contractile (EDCF) activities of isometrically-mounted CCA in tissue baths in vitro, with a particular focus on elucidating the mechanisms of COX-mediated EDCF signaling activity. An added objective was to examine the in vivo hemodynamic characteristics of the CCA in each animal model investigated, serving both to identify the pressure-flow environment that the CCA is exposed to in vivo and to provide assessment of potential hypertension, aging, and oxidative stress effects on large artery hemodynamics. Key Findings: Study I hemodynamic analysis confirmed a hypertensive state in young adult SHR while also exposing a reduction in mean CCA blood flow in SHR compared to WKY accompanied by a multi-faceted pressure-flow interaction across the cardiac cycle relating to flow and pressure augmentation. Study III hemodynamic analysis found that neither aging nor chronic BSO-induced GSH depletion affected CCA blood pressure or blood flow parameters in SD rats. Study I and II demonstrated that a COX-mediated EDCF response impaired ACh-stimulated endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation in pre-contracted CCA from young adult SHR, while EDRF signaling activity, predominantly mediated by NO, remained well-preserved compared to WKY. Examining ACh-stimulated contractile function specifically from a quiescent (non pre-contracted) state revealed that EDCF activity did exist in WKY CCA but could be completely suppressed by NO-mediated EDRF signaling activity, whereas the similarly robust NO-meditated EDRF signaling activity in SHR CCA could not fully suppress its >2-fold augmented EDCF activity vs. WKY CCA. Further pharmaco-dissection of ACh-stimulated contractile function in the SHR-WKY CCA model revealed that the EDCF signaling activity was completely dependent on the COX-1 (but not COX-2) isoform of COX and was almost exclusively mediated by the thromboxane-prostanoid (TP) sub-type of the prostaglandin (PG) G-protein coupled receptor family and by Rho-associated kinase (ROCK), a down-stream effector of the molecular switch RhoA. Furthermore, it was found that while exogenous ROS-stimulated CCA contractile function was similarly >2-fold augmented in SHR vs. WKY and dependent on COX-1 and TP receptor and ROCK effectors, ACh-stimulated CCA EDCF signaling activity was only minimally affected by in-bath ROS manipulating compounds. Additional biochemical and molecular analysis revealed that ACh stimulation was associated with PG over-production from an over-expressed COX-1 in SHR CCA, and with CCA plasma membrane localization and activation of RhoA. Study III demonstrated that a COX-mediated EDCF response impaired ACh-stimulated endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation in pre-contracted CCA from Aging SD rats, while EDRF signaling activity, predominantly mediated by NO, remained well-preserved compared to Adult SD rats. Specific examination of ACh-stimulated contractile function revealed that EDCF activity did exist in Adult CCA but could be completely suppressed by NO-mediated EDRF signaling activity, whereas the similarly robust NO-meditated EDRF signaling activity in Aging CCA could not fully suppress its >3-fold augmented EDCF activity vs. Adult CCA. Further pharmaco-dissection of ACh-stimulated contractile function in the Adult-Aging SD rat CCA model revealed that EDCF signaling activity was completely dependent on COX-1, but while exogenous ROS was able to elicit a COX-dependent CCA contractile response, in-bath ROS manipulating compounds were found to be without effect on ACh-stimulated CCA EDCF signaling activity. Furthermore, biochemical analysis revealed that aging was not associated with a change in tissue (liver and vascular) GSH content or ROS accumulation. Chronic in vivo BSO treatment was effective in depleting tissue GSH content and increasing ROS accumulation, to a similar extent, in both Adult and Aging SD rats. However, regardless of age, neither ACh-stimulated NO-mediated EDRF signaling activity nor COX-mediated EDCF signaling activity were affected by these BSO-induced perturbations. Conclusions and Perspective: In the CCA of animals at the early pathological stages of either essential hypertension (young adult SHR) or normotensive aging (Aging SD rats), endothelial vasomotor dysfunction can be caused solely by over-active EDCF signaling, apparently disconnected from changes in NO bioavailability or oxidative stress. While NO and ROS may act, respectively, as negative and positive modulators of the established COX-PG-TP receptor-RhoA-ROCK cell-signaling axis mediating endothelium-dependent contractile activity, these factors do not appear to be essential to the mechanism(s) underlying the development of over-active EDCF signaling. Further elucidation of the cellular-molecular causes of over-active EDCF signaling, and its patho-biological consequences, in the SHR-WKY and Adult-Aging SD rat CCA models of EDCF activity established and hemodynamically characterized in this thesis, may help to identify new or more effective targets to be used in prevention or treatment strategies to combat the pathogenesis of CVD.

Dissertation (Ph.D.)--University of South Florida, 2007. / Title from PDF of title page. Document formatted into pages; contains 214 pages. Includes vita. Includes bibliographical references.

The purpose of this investigation was to examine selected biochemical mechanisms known to influence contractility and energy metabolism in the myocardium, with particular emphasis placed on the regulatory role of protein phosphorylation in the ventricular myocardium. The investigation was conducted in three phases; initially the cardiac contraction cycle was examined to determine whether reported fluctuations in myocardial cAMP levels were associated with other biochemical events known to be cAMP-dependent. The second phase involved the determination of specific kinase activities and endogenous substrates in a highly purified cardiac sarcolemmal preparation. In the final phase, ventricular myocytes were utilized to examine the ability of adenosinergic and muscarinic agonists to influence the isoproterenol-induced increases in protein phosphorylation. Studies in the first phase examined cyclic AMP levels and selected kinase activities in hearts frozen at various stages of the cardiac cycle. An automated clamping device, capable of freezing a perfused rat heart in less than 50 msec, was utilized to separate the cardiac cycle into various phases. Three different timing schemes were employed to divide the cycle into 2 to 4 segments. These different timing schemes revealed no significant differences in cAMP during the cardiac cycle. Myocardial cAMP values ranged from 2.5 to 4.1 pmol/min/mg protein in all phases. However, in one scheme there was a tendency for cAMP to be elevated in early systole, with minimal values occurring diastole. There were also no significant differences seen for either glycogen phosphorylase or cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) activity between various phases of the cardiac cycle. Since no significant fluctuations were observed in the levels of cAMP or the activities of PKA or glycogen phosphorylase during a single cardiac contraction cycle, it would appear that these agents do not exert their effects on cardiac function on a beat to beat basis. The second phase of study examined the nature and function of individual protein kinases in the myocardium. Using a highly purified cardiac sarcolemmal preparation, kinase specific, synthetic substrates were employed to quantify the activities of cAMP-dependent (PKA), calcium/calmodulin-dependent (PKCM), calcium/phospholipid-dependent (PKC) and cGMP-dependent (PKG) protein kinases. Additionally, endogenous protein substrates were examined in this preparation to provide possible insight as to the function of these kinases in the heart. The activities of PKA, PKG, PKCM, and PKC in nmol 32P/min/μg protein were as follows: PKA, 1606; PKG, 35.7; PKCM, 353; and PKC, 13.2. Three endogenous protein substrates of apparent molecular weights of 15kD, 28kD and 92kD were phosphorylated. While no endogenous protein phosphorylation was detectable as a result of cG-PK activity, all of the substrates were phosphorylated, to varying degrees, by both PKA and CACM-PK. PKC phosphorylated only the 15kD substrate. Even though several endogenous kinases are evident in the sarcolemmal preparation, cAMP-dependent protein kinase demonstrates the greatest degree of activity. This kinase also appeared to be the most abundant; however, there is some concern as to the source of these kinases in the membrane preparation since endothelial membranes as well as cardiac membranes appeared to be present. Evidence for endothelial contamination was provided by the finding that the membrane preparation contained appreciable amounts of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) activity, an enzyme felt to reside in the vascular endothelium. Since studies with this preparation could not exclude contribution of nonmuscle cell membranes a model consisting solely of dispersed ventricular myocytes was developed. The third phase of these studies examined protein phosphorylation in primary cultures of ventricular myocytes. Specifically, these studies examined protein phosphorylation induced by exposure to isoproterenol (ISO), a catecholamine known to effect changes in the phosphorylation state of proteins in the heart by means of a β-adrenergic-mediated/cAMP-dependent mechanism was examined. Additionally, the effects of phenylisopropy-ladenosine (PIA) and carbamyl choline chloride (CARB) were examined with regard to their anti-adrenergic role(s) in this process. Adherent, collagenase-dispersed, radiolabelled (32p) ventricular myocytes exposed to ISO demonstrated a dose and time dependent increase in 32p incorporation into several endogenous protein substrates. When the myocytes were exposed (60 sec) to either PIA or CARB prior to the exposure to ISO, ISO-induced 32p incorporation into protein substrates of apparent molecular weight of 6kD, 31kD and 155kD was reduced up to 67% when compared to the effects of ISO alone. Additionally, both PIA and CARB attenuated the ISO-induced increase in PKA activity in the myocyte, yet only CARB was seen to produce an inhibitory effect on the ISO-induced increase in cAMP levels in the myocytes. The effects of CARB were dose-dependent and inhibited the effects of ISO on 32p incorporation at all doses tested. PIA elicited biphasic effects: lower PIA concentrations were inhibitory in nature, while higher concentrations of PIA appeared to potentiate the increase in 32p incorporation induced by ISO. Based on electrophoretic mobilities (SDS/PAGE) of the 6kD and the 155kD substrates, these substrates have been tentatively identified as the monomeric form of the sarcoplasmic reticulum-associated protein, phospholamban, and the contractile filament-associated protein, C protein, respectively. The 31kD substrate has been identified, by means of immunoblot, as the contractile filament-associated protein, troponin I. The role of protein phosphorylation in the myocardium involves complex, inter-related mechanisms that encompass extracellular, transmembranal and cytoplasmic elements in the heart. It is well understood that certain mechanisms of the contraction cycle known to vary on a beat to beat basis, such as myosin ATPase, involve changes in protein phosphorylation. However, the nature of the various kinases and substrates examined in this study appear to influence longer-term events of myocardial contractility. Mechanisms coupled with hormone action, modulation of second messenger-dependent components, and factors associated with changes in contractility seen with aging and disease are more likely to exhibit changes similar to those described herein. A better understanding of the underlying biochemistry may provide greater insight into the importance of these metabolic changes.

Magister Scientiae (Medical Bioscience) - MSc(MBS) / Conclusion of this study: These data suggest that 6 weeks of high-fat feeding induces hypertension but does not produce obesity, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance. However, this model may be useful in studying vascular reactivity in hypertension in the absence of insulin resistance. / South Africa

Magister Scientiae (Medical Bioscience) - MSc(MBS) / Background: It is well known that some genetic factors and dietary factors, such as excessive salt intake and excessive caloric intake (resulting in obesity) are risk factors for hypertension. Fifty percent of all hypertensive patients are also insulin resistant. Both hypertension and insulin resistance are again risk factors for other cardiovascular diseases such as atherosclerosis and heart failure. The nature of the association between hypertension and insulin resistance has not been clearly elucidated. Spontaneously hypertensive rats are the ideal models to study the aspects of the relationships between hypertension and insulin resistance. Models of high-fat feeding induce obesity,hypertension and insulin resistance and are thus used extensively to study hypertension because these models closely mimic some of the renal and cardiovascular changes found in human hypertensive patients. The present study was initiated to evaluate if insulin resistance will develop within 6 weeks in a model of high-fat diet induced hypertension and if so, to determine whether captopril will affect the presence of insulin resistance.This model should in future be used to study vascular reactivity to phenylephrine (PHE),acetylcholine (ACH) and sodium nitroprusside (SNP) in hypertensive animals in theabsence or presence of insulin resistance and in normotensive insulin resistant animals. Methods: In a series of experiments, rats were divided into four groups that received different treatments: (i) laboratory pellets, (ii) high-fat diet, (iii) high-fat diet plus captopril and (iv) high-fat diet plus vehicle. Body weight was measured weekly for 6 weeks. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were measured every week during the 6-weeks feeding period by the tail cuff method using a two channel computerized non-invasive system from Kent Scientific Corporation, USA.m Intraperitonealy glucose tolerance tests (IPGTTs) were performed at week 3 and week 6.After 6 weeks, and after an overnight fast, the plasma lipid profile was determined using a portable CardiochekTM blood test system. Fasting plasma insulin was determined using an immunoenzymatic assay for the in vitro quantitative measurement of rat insulin (INS) in serum and plasma. Insulin sensitivity was estimated by the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) using the fasting plasma insulin and fasting glucose levels. After week 6 on the high-fat diet, thoracic aortae from the control and high-fat fed(HFD) animals were excised and vascular response to PHE, ACH and SNP were assessed in intact and denuded endothelium.Result: High-fat feeding did not cause a significant increase in body weight. High-fat feeding significantly increased systolic blood pressure from 125±2.1 mmHg in control animals to 155±5.9 mmHg in the HFD group (P < 0.05) and 158±5.6 mmHg in the HFDV group (P < 0.05). Diastolic blood pressure was increased from 86±2.8 mmHg in the control group to 117±2.5 mmHg in the HFD group (P < 0.05) and 113±3.4 mmHg in the HFDV group (P < 0.05). Visceral fat was increased from 0.8±0.1g in the control group to 3.1±0.6 g in the HFD group and 3.8±0.6 g in the HFDV group. IPGTTs performed at weeks 3 and 6 respectively did not differ significantly from the control group as evidenced from the AUC’s at weeks 3 and 6 respectively. High-fat feeding had no significant effects on blood cholesterol, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) values or and fasting plasma insulin levels. The KCl induced contraction in both aortic rings with intact and denuded endothelium did not differ significantly between the control and HFD groups (P= 0.4 and 0.8) respectively. The contraction mediated by KCl in aortic rings with intact and denuded endothelium from the control or HFD groups also did not differ significantly(control: intact vs denuded, P = 0.2; HFD: intact vs denuded, P = 1). Dose responsecurves(1-10 μM) to PHE indicated slightly stronger contractions in the high-fat fed animals at submaximal doses tested. The maximum contraction achieved was however the same (94±19% and 99±2.6% relative to KCl induced contraction, in the control and HFD group respectively, P<0.05). Relaxation responses to ACH and SNP represent preliminary data.Conclusion: These data suggest that 6 weeks of high-fat feeding induces hypertension but does not produce obesity, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance. However, this model may be useful in studying vascular reactivity in hypertension in the absence of insulin resistance.

Neonatal quinpirole treatment to rats produces long-term increases in D(2) receptor sensitivity that persists throughout the animal's lifetime, a phenomenon referred to as D(2) priming. Male and female Sprague-dawley rats were administered quinpirole (1 mg kg(-1)) or saline from postnatal days (P)1-11. At P60, all animals were given an injection of quinpirole (100 microg kg(-1)), and results showed that rats neonatally treated with quinpirole demonstrated enhanced yawning in response to quinprole, verifying D(2) receptor priming because yawning is a D(2) receptor mediated event. Beginning 1-3 days later, locomotor sensitization was tested through administration of d-amphetamine (1 mg kg(-1)) or saline every other day over 14 days, and horizontal activity and turning behavior were analyzed. Findings indicated that D(2)-priming enhanced horizontal activity in response to amphetamine in females compared to males at Days 1 and 4 of locomotor sensitization testing, and D(2)-priming enhanced turning in response to amphetamine. Seven to ten days after sensitization was complete, microdialysis of the NAcc core was performed using a cumulative dosing regimen of amphetamine (0.1-3.0 mg kg(-1)). D(2)-primed rats administered amphetamine demonstrated a 500% increase in accumbal DA overflow compared to control rats administered amphetamine. Additionally, amphetamine produced a significant increase in NE overflow compared to controls, but this was unaffected by D(2) priming. These results indicate that D(2) receptor priming as is produced by neonatal quinpirole treatment robustly enhances behavioral activation and accumbal DA overflow in response to amphetamine, which may underlie increases in psychostimulant use and abuse within the psychotic population where increased D(2) receptor sensitivity is a hallmark.

Neonatal quinpirole treatment in rats produces increased sensitivity of dopamine D2-like receptors throughout the animal's lifetime, referred to D2 priming. There is little information on the effects of nicotine in adolescent rats, especially in a model that has clinical relevance to psychosis where increased D2 receptor sensitivity is common. Male and female rats were treated with quinpirole (1 mg/kg) or saline from postnatal (P) day P21, given nicotine (0.5 mg/kg) or saline from P33 through P49, and placed into a locomotor arena for behavioral testing. Nicotine or saline treatment was preceded by the D2-like receptor antagonist eticlopride, D3 antagonist nafadotride, or saline. Conditioned hyperactivity was analyzed on P50 in the same context in a drug-free test. In females, D2 priming increased the locomotor response to acute nicotine, but did not affect subsequent nicotine sensitization, and only non–D2-primed females demonstrated conditioned hyperactivity. Eticlopride and nafadotride blocked behavioral sensitization, although nafadotride was more effective at blocking nicotine-conditioned hyperactivity in females. In males, D₂ priming enhanced sensitization to nicotine and produced conditioned hyperactivity, which were blocked by eticlopride and nafadotride. These results have implications for psychosis and comorbidity of nicotine abuse in adolescence.

Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies.