Cette thèse prend pour objet les transformations de l’analyse macroéconomique aux États-Unis durant les années 1970 tout en questionnant la manière d’étudier et d’analyser ces transformations. Du point de vue de l’histoire des faits, la période semble marquer une rupture par rapport à la relative stabilité économique de l’après-guerre. Cette période d’instabilité économique, qu’on nomme stagflation, fait écho à l’instabilité de la théorie macroéconomique aux États-Unis. Le consensus de l’époque, considéré comme « keynésien », se retrouve attaqué par les économistes dits « monétaristes » et « nouveaux classiques ». Le dernier des groupes cités est celui des « révolutionnaires », celui dont on considère qu’il a changé radicalement la discipline. Le but de ma thèse est d’étudier l’influence des nouveaux classiques sur la macroéconomie dans les années 1970 en mobilisant un appareil historiographique qui met au cœur de l’étude le rôle joué par la stagflation, et de confronter les résultats de cette étude avec l’histoire « conventionnelle » de la macroéconomie. La thèse s’articule autour de quatre articles indépendants les uns des autres. Le premier chapitre propose une comparaison entre les méthodologies de Lucas et Sargent, et montre que le second tente de donner un caractère plus réaliste aux modèles de la Nouvelle Économie Classique, en utilisant les anticipations rationnelles pour décrire différents phénomènes économiques. Le second chapitre prend pour objet la confrontation entre Lucas et Sargent d’un côté, et les défenseurs des modèles macroéconométriques structurels de l’autre. Le chapitre 3 étudie l’évolution des travaux de Robert Gordon sur l’inflation dans les années 1970 et documente la manière dont celui-ci adopte petit à petit l’hypothèse de taux de chômage naturel. Le chapitre 4 enfin s’intéresse aux débats empiriques au début des années 1980, autour de la crise de Lucas. / This thesis focuses on the transformations of macroeconomics in the United States during the 1970s, while questioning the way to study and to analyze these transformations. From the point of view of economic history, the period seems to mark a break with the relative stability post World War II years. This period of economic stability, that one calls “stagflation”, echoes the instability of U.S. macroeconomic theory. The consensus of the time, regarded as “Keynesian”, is attacked by economists labeled as “Monetarist” and “New Classical”. The last group is the one of “revolutionaries”, regarding as having radically transformed the discipline, as the Copernican revolution overthrown the geocentric representation of the universe. My goal in the thesis is to study the influence of New Classical economists on macroeconomics in the 1970s, by appealing to an historiographical framework which outs at the heart the role played by stagflation, and by confronting the results of this work to the standard narrative. This thesis is built around four articles, independent from one another. The first chapter proposes a comparison between the methodologies of Lucas and Sargent, and shows how the latter intend to give a more realistic character to the new classical economy models, by using rational expectations to describe different economic phenomena. The second chapter takes interest in the confrontation between Lucas and Sargent on one side, and the defenders of structural econometric models on the other. The third chapter studies the evolution in the works of Robert Gordon on inflation in the 1970s, and documents the way he gradually adopts the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. Finally, the chapter four is interested in the empirical debates in the early 1980s, about the Lucas critique.

<p>Aggressive fiscal and monetary policies by governments of countries and central banks in developed markets could somehow push inflation to some very high level in the long run. Due to the decreasing of pension fund benefits and increasing inflation rate, pension companies are selling inflation-linked products to hedge against inflation risk. Such companies are seriously considering the possible effects of inflation volatility on their investment, and some of them tend to include inflationary allowances in the pension payment plan. In this dissertation we study the management of pension funds of the defined contribution type in the presence of inflation-recession. We study how the fund manager maximizes his fund&rsquo / s wealth when the salaries and stocks are affected by inflation. In this regard, we consider the case of a pension company which invests in a stock, inflation-linked bonds and a money market account, while basing its investment on the contribution of the plan member. We use a benchmarking approach and martingale methods to compute an optimal strategy which maximizes the fund wealth.</p>

<p>Aggressive fiscal and monetary policies by governments of countries and central banks in developed markets could somehow push inflation to some very high level in the long run. Due to the decreasing of pension fund benefits and increasing inflation rate, pension companies are selling inflation-linked products to hedge against inflation risk. Such companies are seriously considering the possible effects of inflation volatility on their investment, and some of them tend to include inflationary allowances in the pension payment plan. In this dissertation we study the management of pension funds of the defined contribution type in the presence of inflation-recession. We study how the fund manager maximizes his fund&rsquo / s wealth when the salaries and stocks are affected by inflation. In this regard, we consider the case of a pension company which invests in a stock, inflation-linked bonds and a money market account, while basing its investment on the contribution of the plan member. We use a benchmarking approach and martingale methods to compute an optimal strategy which maximizes the fund wealth.</p>

Magister Scientiae - MSc / Aggressive fiscal and monetary policies by governments of countries and central banks in developed markets could somehow push inflation to some very high level in the long run. Due to the decreasing of pension fund benefits and increasing inflation rate, pension companies are selling inflation-linked products to hedge against inflation risk. Such companies are seriously considering the possible effects of inflation volatility on their investment, and some of them tend to include inflationary allowances in the pension payment plan. In this dissertation we study the management of pension funds of the defined contribution type in the presence of inflation-recession. We study how the fund manager maximizes his fund's wealth when the salaries and stocks are affected by inflation. In this regard, we consider the case of a pension company which invests in a stock, inflation-linked bonds and a money market account, while basing its investment on the contribution of the plan member. We use a benchmarking approach and martingale methods to compute an optimal strategy which maximizes the fund wealth. / South Africa

The magister thesis makes comparison of monetary causes of the crises in 1970s and the current crises in the United States of America. On the basis of theoretical part that analyzes the Austrian theory of the business cycle derives work in analytical part the consequences of monetary policy on the economy in both of observed periods. Through the use of history of monetary policy finds the thesis advice for solution to current crises. The thesis analyzes monetary instruments of American central bank and explains the mechanism of transfer of money into the economy. In the terms of current economic debates the thesis conclusion answers the question if or on what condition can actual situation of the economy of the United States of America leads in stagflation development.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:34:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio Jose Zeri Nunes.pdf: 3730557 bytes, checksum: eb4c696875c9954c6b15d1523f813ade (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-05 / This study aims to analyze the economics of stagflation, extremely deleterious condition characterized by the presence of stagnation of the economy associated with high inflation, thus it is a situation of great macroeconomic imbalance, with significant social implications, and interest in law. Initially, this research will study the theme through the economic field. In this way, the analysis of inflation side of the disorder denotes impact on price stability, arbitrary redistribution of resources, wage disorder, discouragement of savings and investments, in addition to imply increased interest rate, and negative influence on economic growth in the long run. The recessive side demonstrates reduced production of goods and services, fall of social welfare, non-use of productive resources, and increase of unemployment. After, the analysis will be made of its interaction with science of law, through constitutional paradigm. This correlation shows contrast between this situation and the constitutional economic order, with opposition to its fundamentals of human labor and free enterprise, to its purposes of dignified existence and social justice, and contrasts with the constitutional economics principles of sovereignty, free competition, consumer protection, reduction of regional and social inequalities, pursuit of full employment and favorable treatment for small businesses. This research will investigate the related economic policies. Inadequate policies are etiologic factors for Stagflation, in this way, as all state actions, are subject to limits and controls, especially constitutional. Finally, this study will discuss the interrelationship between economic policy, stagflation and development. The macroeconomics of stagflation is the polar opposite of a development macroeconomics, so governments should implement economic policies that combat stagflation and boost development. / O presente estudo visa analisar a economia da estagflação, condição extremamente nociva, caracterizada pela presença de estagnação da economia associada à inflação alta; deste modo configura-se como situação de grande desequilíbrio macroeconômico, com importantes repercussões sociais, e de interesse ao Direito. Inicialmente, esta pesquisa estudará o tema através da visão da ciência econômica. Sob este prisma, a análise do polo inflacionário do distúrbio denota impacto sobre a estabilidade dos preços, desordem salarial, redistribuição arbitrária de recursos, desestímulo à poupança e a investimentos, além de implicar aumento de juros, com influência negativa no crescimento econômico a longo prazo. O polo recessivo demonstra redução da produção de bens e serviços, queda do bem-estar social, não aproveitamento de recursos produtivos, e tendência ao desemprego. Posteriormente, será feita análise de sua interação com o Direito, por meio do paradigma constitucional. Esta correlação demonstra contraposição entre esta conjuntura e a Ordem Econômica Constitucional, com oposição aos fundamentos de valorização do trabalho humano e da livre iniciativa, às finalidades de existência digna e de justiça social, bem como se contrapõe aos princípios econômico-constitucionais da soberania, livre concorrência, defesa do consumidor, redução das desigualdades regionais e sociais, pleno emprego e tratamento favorecido para as empresas de pequeno porte. A presente pesquisa ainda irá investigar as políticas econômicas correlacionadas. Políticas inadequadas são fatores etiológicos para estagflação; assim, como todos os atos do Estado, são sujeitas a limites e controles, especialmente jurídicoconstitucionais. Por fim, este estudo discutirá a inter-relação entre políticas econômicas, estagflação e desenvolvimento. A macroeconomia da estagflação é o polo oposto de uma macroeconomia do desenvolvimento, portanto, os governos devem aplicar políticas econômicas que combatam a primeira e impulsionem o desenvolvimento.