<p>In order to find effective measures that meet the requirements for proper groundwater quality and quantity management, there is a need to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) and a suitable modelling tool. Central components of a DSS for groundwater management are thought to be models for surface- and groundwater flow and solute transport. The most feasible approach seems to be integration of available mathematical models, and development of a strategy for evaluation of the uncertainty propagation through these models. The physically distributed hydrological model ECOMAG has been integrated with the groundwater model MODFLOW to form a new integrated watershed modelling system - ECOFLOW. The modelling system ECOFLOW has been developed and embedded in Arc View. The multiple-scale modelling principle, combines a more detailed representation of the groundwater flow conditions with lumped watershed modelling, characterised by simplicity in model use, and a minimised number of model parameters. A Bayesian statistical downscaling procedure has also been developed and implemented in the model. This algorithm implies downscaling of the parameters used in the model, and leads to decreasing of the uncertainty level in the modelling results. The integrated model ECOFLOW has been applied to the Vemmenhög catchment, in Southern Sweden, and the Örsundaån catchment, in central Sweden. The applications demonstrated that the model is capable of simulating, with reasonable accuracy, the hydrological processes within both the agriculturally dominated watershed (Vemmenhög) and the forest dominated catchment area (Örsundaån). The results show that the ECOFLOW model adequately predicts the stream and groundwater flow distribution in these watersheds, and that the model can be used as a possible tool for simulation of surface– and groundwater processes on both local and regional scales. A chemical module ECOMAG-N has been created and tested on the Vemmenhög watershed with a highly dense drainage system and intensive fertilisation practises. The chemical module appeared to provide reliable estimates of spatial nitrate loads in the watershed. The observed and simulated nitrogen concentration values were found to be in close agreement at most of the reference points. The proposed future research includes further development of this model for contaminant transport in the surface- and ground water for point and non-point source contamination modelling. Further development of the model will be oriented towards integration of the ECOFLOW model system into a planned Decision Support System.</p>

Educational transitions in the UK are related to social background characteristics such as social class and, to a lesser extent, ethnicity and gender. This thesis presents a case study of admission to the University of Oxford to understand why, conditional on application, admissions patterns into selective higher eduction in Britain show an advantage for already privileged strata of society. Specifically, net of attainment, the professional middle class, white, male and state school applicants fare particularly well in securing offers for undergraduate study at Oxford. With the exception of the state school effect, the admissions privilege advantages already privileged strata of society. In the first empirical section, the analysis of purposefully generated survey data on 1,929 applicants for admission to the University of Oxford finds that quantifiable measures of merit fail to fully explain differential admissions patterns. The logistic regression models also uncover that while applicants from the private sector initially have similar gross chances of gaining an offer to their state school educated peers, they actually face a penalty in the selection process when taking into account their higher levels of prior academic attainment. Furthermore, the analysis shows that while measures of cultural capital, motivation, aspiration and learning style are meaningfully related to selection decisions, they do not explain the lower transition rates for ethnic minority applicants, those from non-professional class backgrounds, female applicants and private school applicants. The second step in the empirical investigations then aims to understand the generative mechanisms behind these findings from the perspective of the decision makers in the selection process. This section draws on interviews with 25 admissions tutors and the observation of eight admissions meetings. The analysis here finds that selectors view the admissions exercise as involving risks and uncertainties. Also, many participating tutors routinely considered schooling in their selection decisions and discounted the performance of applicants who had come from very high achieving schools but who were not top achievers within this peer group. The mechanism of homo-social reproduction in decisions involving uncertainty is then put forward as a possible explanation for the unequal transition patterns. Finally, the third empirical analysis section investigates links between degree performance in final university examinations and admissions relevant factors. This section includes the degree performance of Oxford students as well as those who subsequently embarked on their degree course at universities other than Oxford. The most striking finding is that among the Oxford graduates, female and private school students are less likely to achieve first class degrees than their male and state school educated peers. One interpretation of this finding is that the discounting that selectors apply in the admissions process for these applicants is not only justified but may not even go far enough. But it is also possible, in particular with regard to the female effect, that the Oxford study environment or the examination system, or both are more conducive to male achievements. This thesis contributes to sociological theory by showing that existing models of educational transition have paid insufficient attention to the role of gatekeepers and their individual preferences in generating aggregate selection patterns. Incorporating selectors as actors in transition models increases our understanding of unequal access to educational institutions and the challenges faced in striving towards equal opportunities in an education based meritocracy. The findings presented here have implications for other fields of sociological inquiry that need to account for the role of individual decision makers such as labour market research. The work presented here has implications for policy making regarding selection processes within the University of Oxford and British higher education more generally. It could also aid university systems such as Germany, that are moving towards selective admission, to think about the challenges of designing truly equitable selection processes.

The aim of this thesis is to on one hand give a good overview of finds found in gotlandic stonefoundationhouses (kämpgravar) that were commonly built during the Iron Age and on the other hand investigate the possibility of separating some houses from others and trace social stratification and hierarchies based on the finds. The items of special interest for this goal were those that could be connected to wealth such as drinking objects, Roman objects and objects made of silver and gold. This investigation has shown that on Gotland it actually existed some, often enormous, houses that had a special tendency to hoard exotic valuables. The real standout houses on this subject are the one in Stavgard and the recently excavated building in Hellvi. A secondart goal was to investigate the possibility to date the buildings based on the finds, which was found to be very problematic. (Two years master’s thesis in Archaeology) / Det huvudsakliga målet med denna uppsats är dels att ge bra överblick över fynden som påträffats i de gotländska stengrundshusen (kämpgravar) som byggdes flitigt under järnåldern och att dels se om det är möjligt att separera vissa hus från andra och spåra social stratifikation och hierarkier baserat på fyndmaterialet. De föremål som var av speciellt intresse för detta mål är de som kan kopplas till rikedom såsom exempelvis exotiska dryckesföremål, romerska föremål och föremål av ädelmetall. Undersökningen har visat att det på Gotland faktiskt fanns en del, ofta enorma, hus som hade en speciell benägenhet att hamstra exotiska dyrgripar. De riktiga utstickarna på det här temat är huset känt som Stavgard och även den nyligen undersökta byggnaden i Hellvi. Båda hade rika mängder av dryckesobjekt såsom glaskärl och dryckeshorn och en del, för ön, unika romerska föremål. Ett sidomål var att även undersöka möjligheten att datera husen baserat på fynden, vilket visade sig vara högst problematiskt. (Master-uppsats i Arkeologi)

The development of new concepts and methods for improving the efficiency of power networks needs performance evaluation with realistic grid topology. However, much of the realistic grid data needed by researchers cannot be shared publicly due to the security and privacy challenges. With this in mind, power researchers studied statistical properties of power grids and introduced synthetic power grid topology as appropriate methodology to provide enough realistic power grid case studies. If the synthetic networks are truly representative and if the concepts or methods test well in this environment they would test well on any instance of such a network as the IEEE model systems or other existing grid models. In the past, power researchers proposed a synthetic grid model, called RT-nested-smallworld, based on the findings from a comprehensive study of the topology properties of a number of realistic grids. This model can be used to produce a sufficiently large number of power grid test cases with scalable network size featuring the same kind of small-world topology and electrical characteristics found in realistic grids. However, in the proposed RT-nested-smallworld model the approaches to address some electrical and topological settings such as (1) bus types assignment, (2) generation and load settings, and (3) transmission line capacity assignments, are not sufficient enough to apply to realistic simulations. In fact, such drawbacks may possibly cause deviation in the grid settings therefore give misleading results in the following evaluation and analysis. To address this challenges, the first part of this thesis proposes a statistical methodology to solve the bus type assignment problem. This method includes a novel measure, called the Bus Type Entropy, the derivation of scaling property, and the optimized search algorithm. The second part of this work includes a comprehensive study on generation/Load settings based on both topology metrics and electrical characteristics. In this section a set of approaches has been developed to generate a statistically correct random set of generation capacities and assign them to the generation buses in a grid. Then we determine the generation dispatch of each generation unit according to its capacity and the dispatch ratio statistics, which we collected and derived from a number of realistic grid test cases. The proposed approaches is readily applied to determining the load settings in a synthetic grid model and to studying the statistics of the flow distribution and to estimating the transmission constraint settings. Considering the results from the first two sections, the third part of this thesis will expand earlier works on the RT-nested-smallworld model and develop a new methodology to appropriately characterize the line capacity assignment and improve the synthetic power grid modeling.

During the synthesis of well arrayed nano/micro structures through wet chemical methods, plenty of parameters are usually involved. Consequently, it is extremely time- and cost-consuming to find out the optimized synthesis conditions by using the conventional "changing one separate factor at a time" (COST) strategy. Instead, the "statistical experimental design" method has been proven in a few works to be an efficient method for experiments involving many parameters.  With this method, the responses could be optimized efficiently by using only a few experiments. Besides, several responses can be optimized simultaneously. Also, models could be built up and the changing tendency can be plotted to predict the required experimental settings for specific tasks. Two types of well arrayed structures including monolayer arrays of silica spheres and vertically aligned ZnO rod arrays were investigated in this work. Monolayer arrays of silica spheres were synthesized by using a dual-speed spin coating method. With assistance of statistical experimental design, the accelerating rate, the second rotation speed and time of the dual-speed spin coating system were found as non-significant parameters to the ordering degree of the obtained monolayer, and thus they can be fixed. This finding could remarkably increase the feasibility of optimizing the practical process. On the other hand, the relative humidity, the first rotation speed and the suspension concentration are identified as the significant parameters to the structures of the monolayer. Moreover, the optimal values for these three parameters were identified: 23% for the relative humidity, 1000 rpm for the first rotation speed and 30 wt.% for the suspension concentration. With these optimized parameters, the area of the obtained silica sphere monolayers reached over 1 cm2 and the defect-free domain size reached over 4000 μm2. These values are considerably higher compared to the previously reported values. Vertically aligned ZnO rod arrays were fabricated by chemical bath deposition. Parameters including precursor concentration, pH value, reaction temperature, reaction time and addition of capping agent were optimized by using statistical experimental design to improve and optimize the growth quality of ZnO rod arrays. Through several stages of optimization, the growth quality of the obtained structures was remarkably enhanced from sparse or clustered ZnO rods to upright and dense ZnO rods. The boundary conditions to achieve vertically aligned ZnO rods, such as a neutral solution and a precursor concentration over 0.02M, were determined. The changing tendency of the texture coefficient and aspect ratio with the factors was also plotted to predict the required experimental settings for specific requests. The points or regions to achieve the optimal properties were identified as well. For instance, the concentration should be as close as to 0.1 M, while the reaction temperature should be limited to 80-90 ◦C, to achieve the ideal preferential growth. With the optimized parameters, the texture coefficient reached almost the perfect value 1, and the aspect ratio was elevated to 21. Moreover, to obtain a dense ZnO thin film, tri-sodium citrate was added to the reaction system. The diameter was systematically controlled through varying the parameters. When both the diameter and the texture coefficient reached the optimal values, the rods were merged together to form a dense ZnO thin film. Furthermore, comments on the statistical experimental method are proposed, and both the advantages and disadvantages are presented according to the present thesis work. This might help the researchers to avoid the disadvantages and thus to employ this method more efficiently in the future. / <p>QC 20150903</p>

Two procedures for detection of differential item functioning (DIF) for polytomous items were generalized to detection of differential testlet functioning (DTLF). The methods compared were the logistic discriminant function analysis procedure for uniform and non-uniform DTLF (LDFA-U and LDFA-N), and the Mantel score test procedure. Further analysis included comparison of results of DTLF analysis using the Mantel procedure with DIF analysis of individual testlet items using the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) procedure. Over 600 chi-squares were analyzed and compared for rejection of null hypotheses. Samples of 500, 1,000, and 2,000 were drawn by gender subgroups from the NELS:88 data set, which contains demographic and test data from over 25,000 eighth graders. Three types of testlets (totalling 29) from the NELS:88 test were analyzed for DTLF. The first type, the common passage testlet, followed the conventional testlet definition: items grouped together by a common reading passage, figure, or graph. The other two types were based upon common content and common process. as outlined in the NELS test specification.

To investigate seasonal patterns of precipitation, statistical analysis was performed on a dataset of daily rainfall observed at 63 south Louisiana stations from 1836 to 2002. Each station record was examined for data quality and continuity with special attention to time periods surrounding station relocation or equipment exchange. Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) sheets were compiled for every month from 1836 to 2002 to document the daily rainfall across south Louisiana and neighboring portions of southern and coastal Mississippi. Using these MAP sheets, missing data was examined to see if a reasonable value could be substituted to extend the continuity of a station's rainfall record. Once these data quality and continuity checks were completed, a series of statistical tests were conducted to determine an accurate scheme to form station groups. To group stations together, each station was required to have a normal distribution of monthly average rainfall, a statistically equivalent variance, and a statistically equivalent mean when compared with other stations in the group. As a result of the Shapiro-Wilk Test, the F-Test, and the Student T-test, eight station groups were formed. To define seasonal rainfall patterns across south Louisiana, statistical tests were conducted for a 12 month period and six and three month intervals. For the six month intervals, group rainfall averages and pooled variances were calculated for each interval beginning with January-July and ending with December-May. For the three month intervals, group rainfall averages and pooled variances were calculated for January-March and concluded with December-February. To test the hypothesis of a statistically significant difference in mean rainfall between the eight groups for a 12, six, and three month period, the Student T-test was conducted. For an annual basis, there is a statistically significant difference in average rainfall at a five percent level of significance between all of the groups except the Southshore (S.S) group when compared to the SW1 group. For six and three month intervals, statistically significant differences exist between the eight groups especially during winter and segments of the Hurricane season from June to November.

Este estudo utilizou três simulações do RegCM4 forçado por três diferentes modelos globais (GFDL, HadGEM2 e MPI) do CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) para avaliar o clima presente (1981-2005) e o cenário futuro RCP8.5 (2006-2096) sobre regiões de topografia complexa dos Andes. A avaliação do desempenho do modelo na cordilheira dos Andes (CA) foi feita através de comparações com dados de estações meteorológicas e dados interpolados (CRU - Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS - Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation e CPC-Climate Prediction Center) em quatro sub-regiões representativas, obtidas por análise de cluster. No clima presente, as três simulações do RegCM4 superestimam a precipitação em regiões situadas em alturas entre 3000 e 4200 m. Em geral, nas montanhas dos Andes, as amplitudes dos ciclos anuais de precipitação são maiores no RegCM4 do que nas observações. Indica que o RegCM4 simula grande disponibilidade de vapor de água na atmosfera, resultando em maiores taxas de precipitação, principalmente quando ocorre o período úmido (Decembro, Janeiro e Fevereiro). Em termos de circulação, no clima presente os ventos em 850 hPa, através do Jato de Baixos Níveis (JBN), indicam forte convergência de massa sobre os Andes favorecendo movimentos ascendentes intensos que estaria contribuindo o aumento de precipitação nos modelos e um deslocamento para oeste da AB comparado com a reanálise (ERA-Interim). Estes fatores contribuem para explicar a superestimativa de chuva na região nas simulações. As simulações representam a variabilidade interanual de temperatura e precipitação, mas em geral, nota-se uma intensificação desse sinal em comparação com as observações. As projeções climáticas futuras em função da latitude foram analisadas em um período de 30 anos (2030-2060) e mostram predominância de tendência de aquecimento em todas as latitudes e de redução da chuva no futuro, exceto na simulação do RegCM4 forçado pelo MPI. Para a temperatura do ar, as funções densidade de probabilidade de (PDF) mostram um deslocamento para a direita no clima futuro (20302060), com consequente aumento de eventos extremos o que pode afetar o ciclo hidrológico na CA. / This study used three simulations of RegCM4 forced by three different global models (GFDL, HadGEM2 and MPI) of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) to evaluate the present climate (1981-2005) and future scenario RCP8.5 (2006-2096) over regions of complex topography like the Andes. The evaluation of the performance of the model in over Andes (CA) was made through comparisons with data from meteorological stations and interpolated data (CHIRPS) in four sub-regions, obtained by cluster analysis. In the present climate, the three RegCM4 simulations overestimate the precipitation in regions located at heights between 3000 and 4200 m. In general, in the Andes mountains, the amplitudes of annual precipitation cycles are higher in RegCM4 than in observations. It indicates that RegCM4 simulates high availability of water vapor in the atmosphere, resulting in higher precipitation rates, especially when the wet period occurs (December, January and February). In terms of circulation, in the present climate the 850 hPa winds through the Low Level Jet (JBN) indicate a strong mass convergence on the Andes favoring intense upward movements that would be contributing to the increase of precipitation in the models and a displacement towards the west compared to the reanalysis (ERA-Interim). These factors contribute to explain the overestimation of rainfall in the region in the simulations. The simulations represent the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation, but in general, an intensification of this signal is observed in comparison with the observations. Future latitudinal projections were analyzed over a 30-year period (2030-2060) and show a predominance of warming trend at all latitudes and rainfall reduction in the future, except for the simulation of RegCM4 forced by MPI. For air temperature, the probability density functions of (PDF) show a shift to the right in the future climate (2030-2060), with consequent increase of extreme events which can affect the hydrological cycle in the CA.

As dificuldades de aprendizagem sobre estatística e suas aplicações simplesmente em razão da matemática envolvida, principalmente, pelos alunos dos cursos de humanas, fazem dela um desafio para o professor que a ministra e também para o aluno que aprende. Assim, esta tese busca mostrar o quanto à elaboração e o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta de avaliação tipo teste em um ambiente virtual pode contribuir como apoio ao ensino presencial do estudo de ferramentas estatísticas multivariadas para os alunos de graduação em Administração da FEARP/USP, matriculados na disciplina Estatística Aplicada à Administração II. Este trabalho faz parte do projeto virtual denominado LaViE, que é um ambiente virtual de ensino-aprendizagem de estatística, e que está fundamentado em três dimensões: Pedagogia Virtual, Tecnologia da Comunicação e Processo de Validação. Para a criação dessa ferramenta de avaliação tipo teste online foi necessário, primeiramente, a elaboração de um protocolo para desenvolvimento e implementação desse sistema no LaViE. A metodologia, então, foi baseada em três etapas: 1) elaboração do protocolo fundamentado na pesquisa exploratória de pedagogia virtual com base na teoria sobre processo de ensino-aprendizagem para o desenvolvimento de um conjunto de regras e passos que balizasse a criação de questões testes on-line com níveis diferentes de ?adaptação? pelo aluno para cada módulo apresentado na disciplina em questão. Neste caso, foram criados três níveis de adaptação: básico (I), intermediário (II) e avançado (III); 2) implementação dessa ferramenta de avaliação no LaViE (teste seu conhecimento), com o desenvolvimento das questões baseadas nos assuntos sobre análise estatística multivariada e; 3) avaliação quantitativa da opinião dos alunos (usuários) quanto à usabilidade do sistema ?teste seu conhecimento? desenvolvido. Esses dados foram coletados quando essa disciplina foi ministrada, porém em dois períodos diferentes; no segundo semestre de 2005 como projeto-piloto, e no segundo semestre de 2006. Dessa forma, pôde ser feita uma análise comparativa da opinião dos alunos sobre o sistema em dois momentos diferentes. Para esse levantamento foram utilizados dois questionários aplicados diretamente aos alunos em sala de aula momentos antes da avaliação presencial da disciplina e um outro logo após essa avaliação presencial. Essas três etapas finalizadas deram condição de existência de uma ferramenta que faz parte de uma das três dimensões citadas do LaViE ? Processo de Validação. / The mathematical knowledge involved in the process of learning statistics and its applications, brings about difficulties to the Humanities department students, thus making it a challenge not only to those who teach it but also to the ones who learn it. Therefore, this work aims at showing the contribution the elaboration and development of a tool such as an online evaluation test can give, as a support to the presencial teaching of the study of multivariate statistical resources, to the FEARP/USP Business Management undergraduate students, registered in Applied Statistics to Business Management II. This study is part of a virtual project named LaViE which is a virtual environment of teaching-learning of Statistics based on three dimensions: Virtual Pedagogy, Communication Technology and Validation Process. For the development and implementation of the online evaluation test in the LaViE project, a protocol was elaborated. The methodology involved is based on three phases: 1) protocol production built on the virtual pedagogy exploratory research founded on the theory concerning the teaching-learning process in order to develop a set of rules and measures which support the creation of online test problems presenting different levels of adaptation for each module of the mentioned discipline. Thus, three levels of adaptation were created: basic (I), intermediate (II), and advanced (III); 2) implementation of such evaluation tool in the LaViE project (test your knowledge) by developing questions based on topics about multivariate statistical analysis; 3) quantitative evaluation of the users? opinion as to the usability of the ?test your knowledge? system. Data were collected in two distinct occasions: second semester of 2005, as a pilot project, and second semester of 2006, what enabled a comparative analysis of the system by the users at two different moments. This survey was conducted by means of two questionnaires completed in class by the students, being the first before the presencial discipline evaluation, and the second immediately after it. At the completion of the three phases previously mentioned, the Validation Process was obtained.

Existe uma polêmica sobre qual deve ser o papel social das empresas. De um lado, considera-se que a responsabilidade de seus gestores é maximizar os resultados em favor de seus acionistas e proprietários e, de outro, que a ação social empreendida pelas empresas traz benefícios à sociedade e também a seus stakeholders. Além disso, alguns autores admitem, inclusive, que não basta seguir as leis e pagar os impostos, mas também ter atitudes éticas e filantrópicas. Essa dissertação é um estudo empírico, de caráter exploratório, que objetiva identificar a existência de relações significativas entre o desempenho financeiro das empresas e o seu nível de investimento em ações de responsabilidade social. A pesquisa envolveu a análise de uma amostra de 897 balanços sociais publicados pelo IBASE no período de 2000 a 2004, por 298 empresas de diversos portes, nacionais e multinacionais, que atuavam no Brasil. Estudos científicos que buscam identificar relacionamentos entre ação social empresarial e seu impacto sobre o desempenho financeiro têm procurado responder, mas ainda não encontraram uma resposta definitiva para essa questão. Algumas dessas pesquisas foram abordadas na revisão bibliográfica demonstrando que o tema ainda carece de mais investigação. O presente estudo avaliou esse relacionamento sob várias condições: influência da situação financeira de lucro ou prejuízo das empresas, setor de atuação, seu porte e a conjuntura econômica e social em que elas operaram, refletida no ano de publicação de seu balanço social. O resultado da análise encontrou significância estatística que confirmou algumas das pesquisas científicas publicadas e também apresentou resultados que responderam questões em aberto de outras pesquisas sobre o mesmo tema. Portanto, apesar da dificuldade natural de percepção integrada dos resultados dos 68 modelos matemáticos envolvidos no estudo, as conclusões são uma oportuna contribuição científica ao tema. / There is a polemic about which should be the social role of companies. At one side, it is considered that the managers\' responsibility is to maximize the results for stockholders and owners, and at the other, the social action undertaken by companies to bring benefits to the society and also to the stakeholders. Besides, some authors admit that is not enough to abide to the laws and to pay taxes, but the firm must also have ethical and philanthropical attitudes. This dissertation is an empiric study, of exploratory nature, aiming at identifying the existence of significant relationships between financial performance of the companies and their investment level in social responsibility. The research involved the analysis of a sample of 897 social accounts published by IBASE in the period of 2000 to 2004, by 298 companies of several sizes, owned by national and multinational capital and operating in Brazil. Scientific studies that seek to identify relationships between managerial social action and their impact on the financial performance have searched to answer this question, but they did not find a definitive answer yet. Some of these researches were mentioned in the bibliographic revision demonstrating that the theme still needs more investigation. The present study evaluated this relationship under several conditions: companies having profit or loss, the business sector where they act, the firm size and the economic and social conjuncture in which they operated, reflected in the year of publication of their social accounting. The result of this analysis found statistical significance that confirmed some of the published scientific researches and also presented original results that answered open matters of other researches about the subject. Therefore, although the natural difficulty of integrated perception of the results of 68 mathematical models involved in the study, the conclusions are an opportune scientific contribution to the theme.