Jamaica, the third largest island in the Caribbean, has been affected significantly by flooding and flood-related damage. Hence assessing the probability of flooding and susceptibility of a place to flood hazard has become a vital part of planning and development. In addition to heavy rainfall from tropical storms and Atlantic hurricanes, several terrestrial factors play significant roles in flooding, including local geology, geomorphology, hydrology and land-use. In this study, a GIS-based multi-criteria statistical methodology was developed to quantify hazard potential and to map flood characteristics. Fourteen factors potentially responsible for flooding were identified and used as initial input in a hybrid model that combined principal component analysis with logistic regression and frequency distribution analysis. Of these factors, seven explained 65 % of the variation in the data: elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, flow accumulation, a topographic wetness index, proximity to a stream network, and hydro-stratigraphic units. These were used to prepare the island’s first map of flood hazard potential. Hazard potential was classified from very low to very high, nearly one-fifth (19.4 %) of the island was included within high or very high flood hazard zones. Further analysis revealed that areas prone to flooding are often low-lying and flat, or have shallow north- or northwest-facing slopes, are in close proximity to the stream network, and are situated on underlying impermeable lithology. The multi-criteria hybrid approach developed could classify 86.8 % of flood events correctly and produced a satisfactory validation result based on the receiver operating characteristic curve. The statistical method can be easily repeated and refined upon the availability of additional or higher quality data such as a high resolution digital elevation model. Additionally, the approach used in this study can be adopted to evaluate flood hazard in countries with similar characteristics, landscapes and climatic conditions, such as other Caribbean or Pacific Small Island Developing States.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第24172号 / 理博第4863号 / 新制||理||1696(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 宮澤 理稔, 教授 久家 慶子, 准教授 ENESCU Bogdan Dumitru / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

<p> The models derived from classical light scattering theory for predicting Rayleigh light scattering contain useful parameters such as polymer weight average molecular weight, z-average radius of gyration and virial coefficients. The methods used to estimate these model parameters have not been based on sound statistical principles. It is with improved statistical estimation methods for these parameters that this thesis is concerned with. The methods of linear least squares, non-linear least squares and error propagation were applied to the analysis of wide angle and low angle laser light scattering data and the results compared.</p> <p> From the theory of dynamic light scattering, methods have been developed to reconstruct particle size distributions of unimodal, bimodal and polydisperse polymer solutions from the data accumulated in a single experiment. Some of these methods of reconstruction are based upon the estimation of the coefficients in a sum of exponentials. Estimating sums of exponentials is a highly ill-conditioned problem and the problems encountered thereof are examined in this thesis. Linear least squares, non-linear least squares and exponential sampling techniques were applied to experimental data from a number of simulated polymer distributions and the final results compared.</p> / Thesis / Master of Engineering (MEngr)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are a key enabling technology in the global energy transition towards a more sustainable future. However, PV generation is highly variable due to the dynamic shading caused by clouds. To mitigate the effects of PV variability on electrical grid stability, grid operators rely on solar forecasts to proactively dispatch grid assets and balance supply and demand. To gain insights into the nature of solar variability, which is key for effective solar forecasting, this thesis presents a statistical assessment of high resolution spectral and broadband solar irradiance in Ottawa, Canada. The statistical assessment investigates the first- and second-order spectral and temporal dependencies of irradiance time series within the context of stationarity. The temporal structures indicate that solar irradiance processes are at best weakly stationary, and the implications for forecasting are discussed. The results of the statistical assessment are leveraged to develop several deterministic machine learning solar forecasting models (LSTM, XGBoost, and 1D-CNN). These models are implemented and compared in terms of computational complexity and prediction accuracy. It was found that under all sky conditions, the inclusion of spectral irradiance data improved forecasting performance compared to only using broadband irradiance. A ramp regime classification algorithm is then described, which enables the training and testing specialized ramp regime forecasting sub-models. These specialized sub-models were found to yield even greater forecasting accuracy within their respective ramp regimes, compared with the all-sky models. Further optimization and ensembling of the presented solar forecasting models is recommended for future work.

No description available.

The analgesic effect of 600 mg and 1500 mg of a pain killing drug to metastatic bone pain, and associated side effects, were assessed. The experimental design was a double-blind cross over clinical trial involving 44 patients known to suffer from metastatic bone pain. Each patient received the active drug in one of two dosages and the placebo in a random order, each lasting about 14 consecutive days. The data consisted of daily measurements of several pain and side effect variables. A few covariates were available. It was found that the patient and the investigator achieved a high degree of agreement on the blinded preference of the active drug to the placebo. A multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) on three different summary scores (mean, median, trmean) calculated on the daily measurements for which the patient received the active drug and on those for which the patient received the placebo was conducted. It was found that for the group of pain variables the order of application and the treatment do not have a significant effect marginally, but that they interact significantly. Variation between subjects was also significant. For the group of side effect variables, however, only significant variation between subjects was found. This suggests that the drug does not have noticeable overall side effects. To account for correlations among the response measurements within each patient, the methodology of generalized estimating equations was used to assess the significance of the effects of the predictors. Although the results are less reliable as they depend on the asymptotic behaviour of statistics, it was found that regardless of the level of correlation within patient response measurements, only the interaction of order of application with treatment has a significant effect on each of the pain variables. All the statistical analyses were carried out using Minitab, SAS, Matlab and Splus. / Thesis / Master of Science (MS)

The main goal of this project was to compare the changes in statistical variation and Weibull characteristics of the strength of glass rods as modified by heat treatment with and without an ion exchange bath. Several sample groups of 30 sodium borosilicate glass rod specimens were heat treated at various temperatures in air and in a potassium nitrate salt bath to induce an ion exchange process. All samples were then tested to failure in 4-point bending to assess the resulting Modulus of Rupture (MOR). Statistical analysis techniques and Weibull analysis were used to study the variations which occur within and between strength distributions of each sample group. A smaller sampling of test groups was subjected to fractographic analysis to study the effect of ion exchange on fracture features. The data shows that the ion exchange process caused a statistically significant increase in the strength of the glass rods. Samples which were heat treated do not show any significant changes in average strength. The fractographic analysis suggests that no changes in fracture morphology occurred as a result of ion exchange process, and that the critical flaw size population was not significantly different. / Master of Science

The apple growers and packaging houses are interested in methods that can evaluate the quality of apples non-destructively. Harvested fruits are a mixture of immature, mature, and over mature fruits, thereby posing a great problem in deciding their end use and storage time. It is expected that the technique developed from the present project could be effectively used to classify the harvested fruit into immature, mature and over mature apples, rapidly and non-destructively. It would also help the growers to predict the optimum dates to harvest the fruits. York and Gala were the varieties of apples that were used in this study and were obtained from Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Kentland Farm. Apples were harvested at different times resulting in different maturity groups (immature, mature and ripe). Gala apples were harvested on three dates with an interval of 10 days, while York apples were harvested on four dates with an interval of 14 days. They were stored at 0oC until sampled. For each harvest date, the experiments were conducted in two sets (10 each) on two consecutive days. First the ethylene levels were measured, followed by gas chromatograph and electronic nose. Then the maturity indices were measured. Three maturity indices, starch index, firmness and soluble solids were used as the three variables for the statistical analysis to identify and categorize the fruits into three maturity categories referred as immature, mature and over mature fruits. Apples were also categorized into three maturity groups based on the emanation levels of the aroma compounds evolved from the fruits. Then electronic nose sensor responses were categorized into the above maturity categories, and their effectiveness was determined using a statistical procedure called Discriminant Analysis (DA). From the DA cross validation results the correct classification percentage for Gala and York apples into maturity groups was 95%. The Electronic nose sensor's effectiveness to categorize the same observations based on sensor responses in to the above classified maturity categories was 83% correct in case Gala apples and 69% for York apples. The EN sensors response data were analyzed by the EN system software and the correct classification percentage for Gala was 83% and for York was 81%. Aroma-based categorization for Gala apples was 100% correct, while the electronic nose for the same analysis was 80%. Based on the three physical parameters, an objective evaluation of maturity could be accomplished. Principal Component Analysis, Canonical Discriminant Analysis and DA results demonstrated that the electronic nose could be used to classify apples into three identified maturity-based groups. The EN sensors (Gala apples), could also classify the apples into aroma-based categories. Thus, it can be concluded that the EN system holds promise as non-destructive evaluation technique to determine the maturity of an apple. / Master of Science

Inkstų persodinimas yra aktuali priemonė gydant inkstų ligas. Nuo inkstų ligų visame pasaulyje kenčia apie 10 % suaugusių žmonių. Vienas suaugęs žmogus iš dešimties kenčia nuo chroniškų inkstų ligų. Apie 1,5 mln. žmonių gyvybė palaikoma dializės būdu, vidutiniškai jie inkstų persodinimo laukia apie septynerius metus. Šio darbo tikslas — nustatyti ligoniams persodinto inksto atmetimo riziką, išgyvenamumo galimybes bei terapijos įtaką. Darbe buvo tiriami duomenys pasitelkiant Kaplan-Meierio išgyvenamumo analizę, Kokso regresiją, logistinę regresiją ir t.t. Iš viso buvo ištirti 604 tiriamieji, kuriems buvo persodintas inkstas ir nustatyta, kad veiksniai įtakojantys inksto atmetimą yra ligonio amžius, svoris bei kreatino kiekis tyrimo pradžioje. Kaplan-Meierio išgyvenamumo analizė parodė, kad išgyvenamumo kreivės iki inksto atmetimo nepriklauso nuo gydymo. Kokso regresijos modelis atskleidė, kad inksto atmetimas susijęs su kreatino kiekiu pradžioje, svoriu bei amžiumi. Be to, tyrimas rodo, kad kreatino kiekis pabaigoje sumažėja, taikant tiek kontrolinę, tiek gydomąją terapiją. Reikšminiai žodžiai: p-reikšmė, Šapiro–Vilko W kriterijus, Hosmerio–Lemešou kriterijus, Voldo kriterijus. / Kidney transplantation is the actual measure when treating kidney diseases. Approximately 10 percents of adults are suffering from kidney diseases. One adult person from ten suffers from chronic kidney diseases. Lifes of 1,5 millions persons are supported by dialysis. They are waiting for kidney transplantation approximately seven years. The goal of this work is to determine the risk of rejection of kidney transplanted to the patients, possibilities of survival and the influence of therapy. The data were researched in the work, invoking Kaplan-Meyer survival analysis, Cox regression and the logistics regression, and so on. In total 604 studies have been researched with the transplanted kidney and it has been determined that the factors, influencing the kidney rejection are the age of the patient, weight and quantity of creatine in the beginning of the research. Kaplan-Meyer survival analysis has shown that the survival curves until kidney rejection do not depend upon the treatment. Cox regression model has revealed that the kidney rejection is related to the quantity of creatine in the beginning, weight and age. In addition, the research shows that the quantity of creatine has decreased at the end, when either treatment or control therapies were applied. Keywords: P-meaning, Shapiro & Wilk W test, Hosmer & Lemeshow test, Vold test.

Στη παρούσα εργασία παρουσιάζονται τα αποτελέσματα της καταγραφής των επιπλεόντων απορριμμάτων σε δύο θαλάσσιες περιοχές της Δυτικής Ελλάδος: (α) το δυτικό Κορινθιακό κόλπο και (β) το βόρειο τμήμα του Στενού Κέρκυρας Ηγουμενίτσας. Ο δυτικός Κορινθιακός κόλπος χαρακτηρίζεται από ισχυρή συμβολή χερσαίων πηγών ρύπανσης (ποταμοί) ενώ οι ναυσιπλοϊακές γραμμές συνιστούν μια αξιοσημείωτη θαλάσσια πηγή ρύπανσης. Η περιοχή του βόρειου στενού Κέρκυρας-Ηγουμενίτσας ελέγχεται κυρίως από θαλάσσιες πηγές ρύπανσης (ναυσιπλοΐα). Το πλαστικό διαπιστώνεται ότι είναι το κυρίαρχο υλικό και στις δύο περιοχές (83%-82%) ενώ οι γενικές συσκευασίες (23%-21%) και οι συσκευασίες ποτών/αναψυκτικών (32%-22%) οι κυρίαρχες χρήσεις τους. Αναπτύχθηκαν μέθοδοι για τον υπολογισμό και την παρουσίαση της επιφανειακής πυκνότητας των απορριμμάτων και οι μετρήσεις αυτές ερμηνεύτηκαν με βάση τις κυρίαρχες πηγές ρύπανσης. Μέθοδοι στατιστικής ανάλυσης εφαρμόστηκαν για την σύγκριση της σύστασης (υλικό) των επιπλεόντων απορριμμάτων. / In this study, the results of the recording of floating litter in two maritime regions of West Greece are presented: (a) in the west Corinthian gulf and (b) in the north part of the narrow region between Corfu and Igoumenitsa. The west Corinthian gulf is characterized by powerful contribution of overland polluted sources (rivers) while the navigational lines institute one notable maritime source of pollution. The region of the north narrow region between Corfu and Igoumenitsa is controlled mainly from maritime sources of pollution (navigation). It is concluded that the plastic is the predominant material in both regions (83%-82%) while the general packaging (23%-21%) and the beverage packaging (32%-22%) their main uses. Methods have beendeveloped for the calculation and the presentation of the surface density of the litter and these measurements have been interpreted according to the predominant sources of pollution. Methods of statistical analysis have been implemented for the comparison of the consistency (material) of the floating litter.