Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:27:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 3635755 bytes, checksum: b5b997989b5eac8d749ff8739618bcb2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-02-17 / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais / This work investigates impacts of deforestation on the regional climatic changes of the Turvo Sujo River Basin, MG during the past 24 years. Landsat images of 1984, 1989, 2000 and 2008 were used to define the deforestation rate. Annual NDVI data ( Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ) for the period from 1984 to 2006 generated from NOAA satellites were used to generate deforestation tendency. This tendency was compared to temporal evolution of temperature and precipitation to investigate the impacts of deforestation on local climate changes. The results showed that vegetative area increased from 21.01% in 1984 to 24.00% in 1900, 29.56% in 2000 and 25.96% in 2008. It indicated that the studied basin was under reforestation during the years before 2000 which resulted a better climatic change but and deforestation and land degradation afterward. From the temporal evolution analysis, it was observed that NDVI was closed related to precipitation but inversely related to temperature. From the tendency analysis of NDVI, precipitation and temperature, it was observed that NDVI increased slightly from 6.60 to 6.64, precipitation from 1200 mm to 1220 mm and temperature from 19.6 °C to 20.5 °C. It is concluded that the time series of annual NDVI, generated from the NOAA satellites, provides us an important source to investigate the deforestation impacts on regional climatic changes as well as the reforestation effects on minimizing local climatic changes. It is suggested that suitable actions of reforestation and natural resources management should be taken to reverse the current tendency of temperature increase in the Basin. / Este trabalho investiga os impactos do desmatamento nas mudanças climáticas regionais da Bacia do Rio Turvo Sujo, localizada no estado de Minas Gerais, durante os últimos 24 anos. As imagens obtidas do sensor TM/Landsat referente aos anos de 1984, 1989, 2000 e 2008 foram usadas para calcular a taxa de desmatamento existente na área de estudo. Os dados de NDVI anuais ("Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ) referentes ao período de 1984 a 2006 gerados a partir do sensor NOAA/AVHRR foram empregados no cálculo da tendência de desmatamento. Esta tendência foi comparada a evolução temporal de temperatura e precipitação de forma a proporcionar uma análise dos impactos do desmatamento nas mudanças climáticas locais. Os resultados mostraram que a taxa do desmatamento foi reduzida e a área com cobertura vegetal aumentada de 21,01% em 1984 a 24,00% em 1989, 29.56% em 2000 diminuindo para 25.96% em 2008. Estes dados indicaram aumento do reflorestamento durante o período de 1984 a 2000 e uma tendência de desaceleração após 2000. Da análise da evolução temporal, foi observado que o NDVI relacionou-se diretamente com a precipitação, mas inversamente com a temperatura. Da análise de tendência do NDVI, da precipitação e da temperatura, foi observado que NDVI aumentou ligeiramente de 6.60 a 6.64, a precipitação de 1200 mm para 1220 mm e a temperatura de 19.6 °C para 20.5 °C. Concluiu-se que as séries temporais da média anual de NDVI geradas a partir do satélite NOAA provêem uma importante fonte de investigação dos impactos de desmatamento nas mudanças climáticas regionais como também o reflorestamento minimiza as mudanças climáticas locais. É sugerido que haja melhor administração dos recursos naturais e implantação de novas áreas de reflorestamento de forma a inverter a tendência atual de aumento da temperatura na na Bacia.

Orientador: Irenilza de Alencar Naas / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Agricola / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T17:11:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Salgado_DouglasD'Alessandro_M.pdf: 1159784 bytes, checksum: 04b0448382e6168d211ac0d4f2949f23 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: O estudo de reprodutoras de frangos de corte é de grande importância para o país, uma vez que o frango de corte é o terceiro maior item agropecuário em exportação, e o Brasil, o segundo maior exportador do mundo desta carne. O estudo de comportamento de matrizes é de interesse científico, por buscar padrões que possam determinar saúde e bem-estar nessas aves. O galpão de produção deve fornecer um ambiente interno que venha de encontro com as necessidades do conforto térmico das aves. Este trabalho teve como objetivo a implementação de ferramentas e metodologia de análise estatística, que sirva de base para a criação de um sistema de monitoramento eletrônico de comportamento. O trabalho foi desenvolvido com dados coletados em ambiente controlado, utilizando a linhagem Hybro - PG, submetidas a diferentes níveis de temperatura, energia de ração e idade. Os dados foram tabulados utilizando os softwares Minitab@ e SAS@. Foram procedidas as análises descritiva e exploratória e, posteriormente, a modelagem - utilizando as Equações de Estimação Generalizadas (EEG). A pesquisa permitiu o desenvolvimento de modelos estatísticos de simulação e predição de comportamento de matrizes pesadas, que possibilitam a criação de um sistema inteligente para acionamento de sistemas de controle de ambiente em galpões de produção, inclusive com indicativo de bem-estar / Abstract: The study of female broiler breeders is of great importance for the country as broiler production is the third largest export item, and Brazil is the world second largest producer. The study of female breeder behavior is of scientific interest as it searches of specific pattern that may determine health and welfare in those birds. Production housing needs to provide inside environmental conditions that reaches bird's thermal comfort. This research has as objective the implementation of statistical and methodology analysis tools that may contribute to develop a system of electronic behavior monitoring. The experiment was developed with data collected under controlled environmental conditions, using birds from one genetic, and submitted to three distinct levels of ambient temperature, feed energy and age. Data were organized and processes using the software Minitab@ and SAS@. The descriptive, and exploratory analysis were applied, and afterwards the modeling - using the Generalized Estimate Equation. This research allowed the development of simulation statistical models for predicting female broiler breeders behavior, that may permit the building of an expert system for controlling production housing environment, as well as an indicative of welfare / Mestrado / Construções Rurais e Ambiencia / Mestre em Engenharia Agrícola

Orientador: Michel Daoud Yacoub / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T07:51:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tejerina_GustavoRodriguesdeLima_M.pdf: 2552947 bytes, checksum: 548284b36d8cce64c55081cadc010fe4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Esta dissertação propõe um modelo generalizado para a distribuição de desvanecimento eta-mu. O novo modelo está fundamentado na introdução de um parâmetro que afeta o equilíbrio do número de clusters de multipercurso nos sinais fase e quadratura. Apesar da inserção deste novo parâmetro, algumas expressões relativas à distribuição da fase foram obtidas em sua forma fechada. Também, foi observado por meio de métodos numéricos que a distribuição da envoltória foi afetada pelo parâmetro em questão. Alguns gráficos são apresentados com o intuito de retratar o comportamento das novas distribuições marginais. Reescrevendo o novo parâmetro em termos do parâmetro de desvanecimento mu, novas expressões simplificadas de fase são definidas. Diante do proposto, estatísticas de ordem superior relativas à taxa de cruzamento de fase são determinadas e alguns gráficos são apresentados / Abstract: This dissertation proposes an improved and more realistic model for the eta-mu fading distribution. The principle behind this new model consists in the introduction of a parameter affecting the balance of number of multipath clusters in the phase and quadrature signals. Regardless of this new parameter, the phase-related formulations are still presented in closed-form expressions. On the other hand, the envelope distribution was affected by this parameter, unfortunately, no closed-form equations were found for this case. Plots are shown to describe the phase and the envelope of the new proposed distribution. Assuming some specific conditions, the new parameter may be rewritten as a function of fading parameter mu, and a new simplified phase distribution is attained. Moreover, with the proposed fading model, high order statistics related to phase crossing rate are then derived / Mestrado / Telecomunicações e Telemática / Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

Orientador: José Cândido Silveira Santos Filho / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T19:49:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Teixeira_BernardoVieira_M.pdf: 1970441 bytes, checksum: 67f065ec5f220f208a22685648840f7e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Em comunicações sem fio, o fenômeno de desvanecimento por múltiplos percursos é modelado por meio de várias distribuições estatísticas, como por exemplo, Rayleigh, Rice, Hoyt e Nakagami-m. Este trabalho propõe e analisa um novo esquema de simulação fase-envoltória para canais de desvanecimento do tipo Nakagami-m. As principais vantagens do esquema proposto são (i) permitir valores reais arbitrários do parâmetro de desvanecimento, (ii) corresponder às estatísticas de primeira ordem exatas do modelo Nakagami-m e (iii) fornecer uma excelente aproximação às estatísticas de segunda ordem associadas tradicionalmente ao modelo Nakagami-m. A análise do simulador proposto é feita com base na obtenção de expressões exatas e em forma fechada para estatísticas importantes de segunda ordem, a saber: (i) funções densidade de probabilidade conjuntas envolvendo a envoltória, a fase e suas derivadas temporais, (ii) função densidade de probabilidade de segunda ordem da envoltória, (iii) taxa de cruzamento de nível, (iv) duração média de desvanecimento e (v) taxa de cruzamento de fase. Como subproduto, são também obtidas expressões exatas em forma fechada para a função de distribuição acumulada da fase Nakagami-m e sua inversa. O esquema proposto á baseado na combinação em cascata de dois simuladores existentes para canais Nakagami-m, random-mixture e rank - matching, superando ambos em desempenho. Para efeito de comparação, algumas estatísticas de segunda ordem desconhecidas para estes dois simuladores são também obtidas de forma exata e fechada / Abstract: In wireless communications, the multipath fading phenomenon is modeled by various statistical distributions such as Rayleigh, Rice, Hoyt, and Nakagami-m. This work proposes and analyzes a new phase-envelope simulation scheme for Nakagami- m fading channels. The main advantages of the proposed scheme are (i) to allow for arbitrary real values of the fading parameter, (ii) to exactly match the Nakagami-m first order statistics, and (iii) to closely match the second-order statistics classically assigned to Nakagami-m fading. The analysis of the proposed simulator is performed by deriving exact closed-form expressions for important second-order statistics, namely (i) joint probability density functions involving the envelope, the phase, and their time derivatives, (ii) second-order probability density function of the envelope, (iii) level crossing rate, (iv) average fade duration, and (v) phase crossing rate. As a byproduct, we also obtain exact closed-form expressions for the cumulative distribution function of the Nakagami-m phase and its inverse. The proposed scheme is based on a cascade combination of two existing Nakagami-m fading channel simulators, random - mixture and rank - matching, outperforming the both. For comparison, some unknown second-order statistics of these two simulators are also obtained in exact closed form / Mestrado / Telecomunicações e Telemática / Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

Wide availability of computing resources at the edge of the network has lead to the appearance of new services based on peer-to-peer architectures. In a peer-to-peer network nodes have the capability to act both as client and server. They self-organize and cooperate with each other to perform more efficiently operations related to peer discovery, content search and content distribution. The main goal of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the network traffic generated by Gnutella peers. Gnutella is a well-known, heavily decentralized file-sharing peer-to-peer network. It is based on open protocol specifications for peer signaling, which enable detailed measurements and analysis down to individual messages. File transfers are performed using HTTP. An 11-days long Gnutella link-layer packet trace collected at BTH is systematically decoded and analyzed. Analysis results include various traffic characteristics and statistical models. The emphasis for the characteristics has been on accuracy and detail, while for the traffic models the emphasis has been on analytical tractability and ease of simulation. To the author's best knowledge this is the first work on Gnutella that presents statistics down to message level. The results show that incoming requests to open a session follow a Poisson distribution. Incoming messages of mixed types can be described by a compound Poisson distribution. Mixture distribution models for message transfer rates include a heavy-tailed component. / http://www.its.bth.se/staff/dil/

Dans ce travail nous étudions les collisions 40,48 Ca + 40,48 Ca à E = 35 AMeV , mesurées au GANIL avec le couplage unique du spectromètre VAMOS et du multi-détecteur INDRA. Lors de telles collisions les modèles dynamiques prédisent la formation d’un col à basse densité entre deux fragments chauds cinématiquement proches du projectile et de la cible. L’identification isotopique du projectile désexcité (PLF) apportée par VAMOS, et la topologie des espèces détectées en coïncidence dans INDRA, montrent que l’ évolution du rapport N/Z des produits est influencée par le N/Z du système (projectile et cible). Les multiplicités moyennes des particules légères chargées (LCP, Z ≤ 2) suivent en particulier une hiérarchie selon le N/Z du système, et celles des deutons et particules alphas semblent refléter une production dynamique. Une étude des rapports isotopiques a ensuite mis en exergue les mécanismes de transport de l’isospin : la migration et la diffusion de l’isospin, tous deux liés au terme d’ énergie de symétrie de l’ équation d’ état nucléaire. Un objectif de ce travail a été notamment de contraindre les modèles théoriques grâce à l’expérience. Nous avons ainsi appliqué une étude comparative entre les données, le modèle géométrique ELIE et le modèle de transport AMD, désexcités par le code GEMINI++ et filtrés. Cette étude a mis en exergue que le modèle AMD avec un potentiel effectif Gogny asysoft reproduit mieux l’ évolution expérimentale du N/Z du PLF et la hiérarchie des multiplicités des LCP. Enfin nous avons observé que les rapports isotopiques issus des modèles ne reproduisent pas d’enrichissement en neutrons à la mi-rapidité contrairement à l’expérience. / In this work we study the 40,48 Ca+ 40,48 Ca collisions at E = 35 AM eV , measured at GANIL with the coupling of the large acceptance spectrometer VAMOS and the multi-detector array INDRA. During such collisions transport models predict the formation of a low-density neckbetween two hot fragments kinematicaly close to the projectile and the target. The isotopic identification of the projectile-like fragment (PLF) provided by VAMOS, coupled to the topology of the light-charged particles (LCP) detected in coincidence with INDRA, show that the N/Z ratio of the products is influenced by the N/Z of the system (projectile and target). The mean multiplicities associated to the LCP follow a hierarchy according to the system, and the one associated to deuterons and α particles may well reflect a dynamical production. A studyof the isotopic ratios have highlighted isospin transport mechanisms : the isospin drift and the isospin diffusion, both linked to the symmetry energy term of the nuclear equation of state. A goal of this work was also to constrain theoretical models using experiment. We have thenapplied a systematic study to compare data with the geometrical model elie and the transport model amd, both filtered, and using gemini++ as after-burner. This study have highlighted that the amd model with an asysoft equation of state better fits the experimental evolutionof the N/Z of the PLF and also the LCP mean multiplicites shapes. Finally we have observed that the isotopic ratios don’t reproduce the neutron-enrichment of the mid-rapidity observed in the data.

Goodness-of-fit tests have been studied by many researchers. Among them, an alternative statistical test for uniformity was proposed by Chen and Ye (2009). The test was used by Xiong (2010) to test normality for the case that both location parameter and scale parameter of the normal distribution are known. The purpose of the present thesis is to extend the result to the case that the parameters are unknown. A table for the critical values of the test statistic is obtained using Monte Carlo simulation. The performance of the proposed test is compared with the Shapiro-Wilk test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that proposed test performs better than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in many cases. The Shapiro Wilk test is still the most powerful test although in some cases the test proposed in the present research performs better.

Bird migration is a poorly-known yet important phenomenon, as understanding movement patterns of birds can inform conservation strategies and public health policy for animal-borne diseases. Recent advances in wildlife tracking technology, in particular the Motus system, have allowed researchers to track even small flying birds and insects with radio transmitters that weigh fractions of a gram. This system relies on a community-based distributed sensor network that detects tagged animals as they move through the detection nodes on journeys that range from small local movements to intercontinental migrations. The quantity of data generated by the Motus system is unprecedented, is on its way to surpass the size of all other centralized databases of animal detection and requires novel statistical methods. Building from the bsam package in R, I propose two new biologically informed Bayesian state-space models for animal movement in JAGS that include informed assumptions about songbird behavior. I evaluate the models using a simulation study in realistic conditions of data missingness. One of these models is generalized to a hierarchical version that fits population-level movement through joint estimation of movement parameters over multiple animal tracks. To apply the models, I then employ a localization routine on a Motus data set from migrating songbirds (Red-eyed Vireos - Vireo olivaceus) from the Eastern coast of North America. This allows me to apply the new hierarchical model and its predecessor to estimate unobserved locations and behaviors. Migratory flights were observed to occur mostly in the evenings along the coast and directed migratory flights were detected over water over e.g. the Bay of Fundy, the Long Island Sound and the New York Bight. Area-restricted searches were confined to coastal areas, in particular the Gulf of Maine, Long Island and Cape May.

L’ouverture du contact béton-rocher des barrages-voûtes est un phénomène fréquemment observé, qui se traduit par une piézométrie locale caractérisée par des effets non-linéaires : effet de seuil et couplage de ses facteurs explicatifs (effets hydrostatiques, thermiques, et temporels). Afin d’interpréter les mesures d’auscultation correspondantes, il est nécessaire de tenir compte de la non-additivité de ces influences, ce que ne permettent pas les modèles physico-statistiques de type régression linéaire multiple actuellement utilisés par l’ingénierie. Dans ce contexte, les objectifs de cette thèse sont d’aboutir à une meilleure compréhension des phénomènes hydrauliques ayant lieu à l’interface béton-rocher grâce à l’analyse et interprétation des mesures d’auscultation, et de caractériser l’état de dégradation du contact, en particulier son extension spatiale, à partir de ces mesures. À cet effet, deux modèles ont été développés, l’un basé sur les réseaux de neurones artificiels, l’autre sur une formulation non-linéaire du modèle HST, permettant d’expliciter l’effet des différentes charges sur l’écoulement. L’interprétation de la piézométrie en termes d’effets réversibles et irréversibles a permis de proposer une caractérisation d’ordre géométrique de l’état du contact dans un profil amont-aval, basée uniquement sur la lecture de ces effets. Puis, un modèle analytique d’écoulement a été formulé et investigué, construit à partir de cette description géométrique du contact, qui permet d’interpréter le champ de pression en plusieurs points de mesure d’un même profil. / The aperture of the rock-concrete interface of arch dams is a frequently observed phenomenon that shows through the non-linear features it induces in the local piezometry: threshold effects, couplings between its explanatory factors (hydrostatic effects, thermal effects, temporal effects). In order to interpret the corresponding monitoring measurements, it is necessary to take into account the non-additivity of those influences. This is not feasible with the multi-linear regression models that are commonly used in engineering. In that context, the aim of this thesis is to come to a better understanding of the hydraulic phenomena that occur at the rock-concrete interface based on the analysis and interpretation of monitoring measurements. In parallel, the objective is to characterise the state of deterioration of the contact, and more particularly its spatial extent, thanks to those measurements. To that end, two models were developed, the first one based on artificial neural networks, the second one based on a non-linear formulation of HST, enabling to make explicit the effects of the different loads on the flow. The interpretation of the piezometry in terms of reversible and irreversible effects made it possible to propose a geometrical characterisation of the contact state in an upstream-downstream profile, based only on the analysis of those effects. Then, an analytical flow model was expressed and investigated, built on this geometrical description of the contact. It permits to interpret the pressure field in several measuring points in one profile.

Statistical inference is a tool for creating models that can accurately display real-world events. Special importance is given to the financial methods that model risk and large price movements. A parameter that describes tail heaviness, and risk overall, is α. This research finds a representative distribution that models α. The absolute value of standardized stock returns from the Center for Research on Security Prices are used in this research. The inference is performed using R. Approximations for α are found using the ptsuite package. The GAMLSS package employs maximum likelihood estimation to estimate distribution parameters using the CRSP data. The distributions are selected by using AIC and worm plots. The Skew t family is found to be representative for the parameter α based on subsets of the CRSP data. The Skew t type 2 distribution is robust for multiple subsets of values calculated from the CRSP stock return data.