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This study uses an ARDL(p, q)-model to express a long-run relationship between ‘Stockholm Interbank Offered Rate Tomorrow/Next’ and the inflation in Sweden between 2007 and 2016 to see how efficient the ‘interest rate-weapon’ as a monetary policy-tool have been in affecting the inflation. The study shows that no such relationship can be expressed – hence the conclusion that the expectations of inflation are the most important variable affecting the inflation, and that the agents in the Swedish economy have rational expectations and a trust in the central bank of Sweden to reach its target of a 2 percent inflation rate.

Vi har i denna uppsats studerat vilka faktorer som påverkar de rörliga bolåneräntorna på den svenska marknaden. Detta har vi gjort genom att intervjua fem svenska banker, en tillsynsmyndighet samt ta del av information från Riksbanken. Vi har även undersökt sambandet mellan Riksbankens reporänta och de utvalda svenska bankernas rörliga (3 månader) bolåneräntor över en tioårsperiod. Sambandet har visat sig starkt men det har försvagats sedan finanskrisen 2008. Vår undersökning visar att de viktigaste faktorerna som påverkar rörliga bolåneräntor är: bankernas upplåning, regleringsstandarder, klimatet på finansiella marknader, bankernas strategier, produktkostnader, riskpremier, konkurrenter, bankernas marknadsförutsättningar samt låntagarens förutsättningar. I arbetet belyser vi även hur vissa av dessa faktorer skiljer sig mellan bankerna.

The global financial crisis of 2007 caused abrupt changes in the financial markets. Interest rates that were known to follow each other diverged. Furthermore, both regulation and an increased awareness of counterparty credit risks have fuelled a growth of collateralised contracts. As a consequence, pre-crisis swap pricing methods are no longer valid. In light of this, the purpose of this thesis is to apply a framework to the Swedish swap market that is able to consistently price interest rate and cross currency swaps in the presence of non-negligible cross currency basis spreads, and to investigate the pricing differences arising from the use and type of collat- eral. Through the implementation of a framework proposed by Fujii, Shimada and Takahashi (2010b), it is shown that the usage of collateral has a noticeable impact on the pricing. Ten year forward starting swaps are found to be priced at lower rates under collateral. Moreover, the results from pricing off-market swaps show that disregarding the impact of collateral would cause one to consistently underestimate the change in value of a contract, whether in or out of the money. The choice of collateral currency is also shown to matter, as pricing under SEK and USD as the collateral currencies yielded different results, in terms of constructed curves as well as in the pricing of spot starting, forward starting and off-market swaps. Based on the results from the pricing of off-market swaps, two scenarios are outlined that exemplify the importance of correct pricing methods when terminating and novating swaps. It is concluded that a market participant who fails to recognise the pricing implications from the usage and type of collateral could incur substantial losses. / Finanskrisens utbrott år 2007 orsakade abrupta förändringar i finansmarknaden. Räntor som tidigare följt varandra divergerade. Vidare gav både reglering av finansmarknaden och en ökad medvetenhet om motparters kreditrisk upphov till en tillväxt av kontrakt med ställda säkerheter. Följaktligen är det inte längre korrekt att prissätta swappar enligt metoder från tiden före finanskrisen. Mot bakgrund av detta är syftet med denna uppsats att applicera ett ramverk på den svenska swapmarknaden som på ett konsekvent sätt kan prissätta ränte- och valutaswappar med icke negligerbara räntespreadar, samt att undersöka prisskillnaderna som uppstår från användandet och typen av ställda säkerheter. Genom implementering av ett ramverk av Fujii, Shimada och Takahashi (2010b) visar denna studie att användandet av ställda säkerheter har en noterbar påverkan på prissättningen. Swappar med tio års löptider och framtida startdatum prissattes lägre när ställda säkerheter inkluderades i prissättningen. Vidare visar resultaten från prissättningen av off-market swappar att genom att bortse från effekten av ställda säkerheter så undervärderas ett kontrakts värdeförändring genomgående, oavsett om kontraktet är in the money eller out of the money. Valet av valuta på de ställda säkerheterna visade sig också spela roll, då prissättningen med SEK och USD som säkerhetsvalutor gav olika resultat i termer av konstruerade kurvor och i prissättning av spot-startande, framtida startande och off-market swappar. Baserat på resultaten ovan genererades två scenarion som påvisade vikten av en korrekt prissättningsmetod vid byte av motpart eller stängning av en swap. Härifrån dras slutsatsen att en marknadsaktör som inte inser vilken påverkan valet av ställda säkerheter har på prissättningen kan drabbas av betydande förluster.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine how changes in long and short interest rates as well as in the slope of the yield curve affect the stock returns of the four major Swedish banks; Svenska Handelsbanken, Nordea Bank, Swedbank, and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken. Further, the aim of the research is to compare these findings to how the banks perceive that such changes affect their stock returns. The objective is thereof to detect differences and similarities between regressions and interviews, in order to contribute with insights to how the banks can handle their exposure to interest rate risk. Theoretical Framework: Previous research show that banks’ stock returns are affected by many factors, including cash flow news, interest rates, size of the business, and the macroeconomy as a whole. However, banks’ interest rate margins are set to market rates so these are more exposed to and affected by changes in interest rates, especially short ones, than are non-financial institutions. Furthermore, the low interest rate levels and forecasting errors that have been seen lately have contributed to greater uncertainty and higher risk exposures, making banks’ sensitivity increase. Methodology: A mixture of a qualitative and a quantitative methodology is used, where the former consists of interviewing the banks and the latter of regressions through secondary data from Thomson Reuters Eikon and the Riksbank. Conclusion: The major Swedish banks’ stock returns are generally affected by changes in short interest rates but not by changes in long interest rates, with the exception of Handelsbanken being impervious to all such changes. Swedbank’s stock returns are most sensitive than the other banks’ stock returns and it is the only bank affected by changes in the yield curve slope. However, the banks seem to perceive no crucial difference in how their stock returns are affected by changes in short interest rates and long interest rates, concluding that their perceptions of long interest rates are not as in line with our results as are their perceptions of short interest rates. However, it tends to be a more diffuse relationship between changes in long interest rates and stock returns than between changes in short interest rates and stock returns.

This thesis provides a thorough analysis of the covered- and uncovered interest parity conditions (CIP, UIP) as well as the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) for Sweden and the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). By studying data on interbank rates in Sweden (STIBOR) and the EMU (EURIBOR) as well as the corresponding spot- and forward exchange rates, monetary integration and country-specific risks are determined and analyzed with direct applications to the potential entry of Sweden into the EMU. As interest rate parity in general gives insight into market efficiency and frictions between the chosen regions, such points are discussed in addition to EMU entry. Drawing on past studies that mainly studied one condition in isolation, a nested formulation of interest rate parity is instead derived and tested using cointegration and robust estimation methods. The results point to a strict rejection of the FRUH for all horizons except the shortest and a case where CIP only holds for the 6-month horizon and partially over one year. This implies, based on the nested formulation, that UIP is rejected for all horizons as well. Ultimately, the study concludes that a Swedish entry into the EMU is not motivated given the lackluster results on UIP and due to the lack of monetary integration. / Den här uppsatsen presenterar en djupgående analys av det kurssäkrade- och icke-kurssäkrade ränteparitetsvillkoret samt den effektiva marknadshypotesen på valutaterminer för Sverige och den europeiska ekonomiska och monetära unionen (EMU). Genom att studera data på interbankräntor i Sverige (STIBOR) och EMU (EURIBOR) samt respektive spot- och valutaterminskurser så skattas och analyseras monetär integration samt landsspecifika risker med en direkt tillämpning på Sveriges eventuella inträde i EMU. Eftersom ränteparitet generellt ger insikt i marknadseffektivitet och friktioner regioner emellan, diskuteras även dessa punkter utöver ett eventuellt EMU-inträde. Genom att bygga på föregående studier som i huvudsak studerar ränteparitetsvillkoren var för sig, härleds en sekventiell formulering av villkoren som sedan testas med kointegration och robusta estimeringsmetoder. Resultaten ger att den effektiva marknadshypotesen strikt förkastas på alla tidshorisonter förutom på en dag respektive en vecka, samt att kurssäkrad ränteparitet håller på 6 och delvis 12 månaders sikt. Baserat på den sekventiella formuleringen så innebär detta att icke-kurssäkrad ränteparitet inte håller på någon tidshorisont. Slutligen, baserat på både resultat och diskussion, är ett svenskt inträde i EMU inte motiverbart givet negativa resultat för icke-kurssäkrad ränteparitet och avsaknaden av fullständig monetär integration mellan regionerna.

This paper describes nationalism as a phenomenon that has become an integral part of Czech society in the 19th century and its manifestations. It describes the main motives Czech nationalist ideology created by T. G. Masaryk. It also described the political situation during the First World War and the circumstances of the independent Czechoslovak state and its share in breaking the Austro - Hungarian monarchy. The work deals with the problem of modernism in the Catholic Church, whose adherents later became the founder of the Church of Czechoslovakia. Briefly describes the lives of the founders of the church and their relationship to nationalist political movements. The core of the work is the analysis of texts relating to the reform movement of the Czech Catholic clergy and the Czechoslovak church, from the period between 1906 - 1931, which is determined by the definition of nationalism seeks to assess its impact on the formation and other life Czechoslovak Church.