市場研究首先面對的課題就是價格與供需，習慣上研究者多採取「價格與需求」或「價格與供給」的配對方式來處理，或者在價格與交易量同時決定的市場均衡假設下，直接以「價格」的討論做為市場研究的對象。 本研究認為「價格與供需」在既有的理論基礎之外，更重要的意義是提供一些較為適宜的研究切入點，然後讓研究者依據現實的觀察與理論的推演，來探討市場變數之間各種可能的關係。因此，本研究依據台灣住宅市場的主要特性，並且從價格與數量兩種變數的各項關係，建立分析台灣住宅市場的理論基礎與發展方向。 基本上，價格與供需數量是市場上最重要的資訊，分別表示著供需雙方進入是場所面對的成本與收益水準，以及供需雙方對當前價格的接受程度以及對未來價格的預期，市場上的任何變遷實際上都是市場參與者行為的結果。因此本研究先將住宅供幾者分為建商與一般售屋者，將需求者分為投資需求者與消費需求者，並且探討各類市場參與者的行為特性，以及在不同的市場景氣下，各種供需行為的加總對市場價格與交易量波動的影響，然後據此結果建立住宅市場景氣循環的個體行為基礎。這樣的分析方式，一方面可補充過去直接以總體經濟變數分析市場景氣循環的不足，同時也可以瞭解住宅市場景氣循環的個體面原因。 此外，因為住宅具有異質性，因此可從財貨類型、區位﹍等角度區隔為多種次市場，且在各種次市場的各種住宅價格與供需數量之間存在著不同的理論關係。然而此項課題涉及的研究領域十分廣泛，因此本研究僅探討台灣住宅市場最具特色的預售屋市場與成屋市場的關係。 本研究對此項課題是以住宅存量-流量模型為基礎，一方面納入預售市場於建築期間即可銷售的特性，以及國人以購屋為主的住宅消費習慣，同時探討住宅生產時間落差現象，進而建立解釋成屋市場與預售屋市場價格與數量關係的理論基礎。 另外，住宅次市場的概念引發了本研究對個別次市場之間，以及整體市場與次市場之間相互關係的討論，這是既有研究尚未深入探討的領域。在變數方面，本研究以住宅次市場「價格比例」與「市場規模」取代傳統的價格水準與交易戶數；在理論基礎上，則以封閉市場的假設條件下，探討整體市場與個別次市場的相互關係；關於各次市場之間，則假設彼此具有相互競爭與合作兩種關係，並以開放市場的概念來討論。 此項研究課題對重新建構住宅市場的理論體系具有十分重要的意義。此項理論關係，一方面打破過去將單一住宅次市場視為封閉體系的研究假設，提出各住宅次市場之間的橫向關係，以及次市場與整體市場的縱向關係。更重要的是，可以透過此項理論結構探討住宅市場資源（金）在各個次市場的配置關係與原因，對解釋台灣住宅市場的亂象深具意義。 在前述的理念體系與理論基礎下，本研究進行各項理論上的推演與實證分析，所得結果說明如下： 一、從住宅市場供需雙方行為特性配合市場景氣循環過程的影響得知：在景氣循環過程中，住宅供需雙方的行為結果，將使得市場價格與交易量均衡點的移動軌跡呈現逆時針旋轉的趨勢。另經由單根檢定與共積檢定，發現台北市住宅價格波動會對交易量脫離長期均衡時能夠產生調整的功能；然而，當市場價格脫離長期均衡時，交易量反而是朝發散的方向波動，顯示台北市住宅市場的投資需求以及投機的影響確實十分明顯。 二、從成屋與預售屋市場之價格與供給量的關係，配合國人偏好購屋以及住宅生產期間長的特性，重新界定住宅存量市場與流量市場的理論結構，並修正住宅存量-流量模型。實證結果顯示，台北市成屋市場與預售屋市場的價格與供給量的關係，並不完全符合存量-流量模型。 此外，成屋與預售屋市場的價格波動具有促進市場向長期均衡收斂的功能，且預售屋市場價格的調整速率高於成屋市場，顯示預售屋制度有提昇市場效率的作用。但是預售屋供給量並無法發揮調節成屋市場供需落差的功能，顯示台北市住宅供給量資訊的市場意義仍未明顯發揮，這也是為何近年來市場餘屋大量增加下，市場價格下跌卻十分有限的原因之一。 三、本研究假設整體市場規模是由個別次市場規模加總而來，而非假設整體市場規模固定，再分配到個別次市場之中，並以「價格比例」與「市場規模」的相互影響關係，建立住宅空間次市場相互影響關係的靜態與比較靜態理論基礎。由理論分析得知，住宅空間次市場的價格比例與市場規模是相互連動的，且各住宅次市場同時受到整體市場景氣趨勢的同向波動影響，以及相互競爭的反向波動影響。 實證結果顯示，台北市與台北縣住宅空間次市場的規模之間並不是純然的競爭關係，而是呈現齊漲齊跌的情況。顯示台北市縣住宅市場的競爭程度低於共同反應預期景氣的相互拉抬合作程度。此外，在住宅價格比例長期遞減趨勢下，台北市住宅市場的規模將會逐漸縮減，台北縣住宅市場規模則持續擴大，且兩次市場住宅價格比例也將逐漸持續降低。 / This dissertation combined by three relative essays. In the first paper I analyze the relationship between price and volume of housing market in Taiwan. The analysis suggests a counter-clock cyclical pattern of housing price and volume in the standard price-quantity plane. Empirical results through cointegration tests confirm our analysis that, in the long run, the fluctuation of Taipei's housing transaction volume causes the housing price to fluctuate. In the second paper I discusses the relationship between existing and pre-sales housing market. Basically, existing housing market is similar as spot market, pre-sales housing market is similar to futures or forwards market (Chang & Ward, 1993). Restated, the goods of pre-sales housing market are the housing units under construction. We modify the stock-flow model of Fisher(1992) and DiPasquale & Wheaton(1992, 1994) to analyze the price-volume relationship between existing housing market and pre-sales housing market. By the empirical test of Taiwan's housing market, the consequences imply that pre-sales market price adjustment rate to the long-run equilibrium price is rapid than the price adjustment rate in existing housing market. In other words, the pre-sales system can improve the market efficiency. The result of supply adjustment rate is insignificant, which implying that housing market is basically influenced by price not by volume in Taiwan. The final paper established the price, volume and mutual interrelation basis through the housing price ratio and market size to provide housing market framework researchers a new point. Then I conducted an empirical analysis of the Taipei City and Taipei County housing markets. Finding that the competition between the two sub-markets is low. Furthermore, there is a signification correlation between market size and price ratio fluctuation, and the price ratio is a better of market economical cycle indicator than price fluctuation.

O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a evolução, principalmente nas últimas três décadas, e a configuração atual da indústria siderúrgica no Brasil sob a ótica do paradigma estrutura-conduta-desempenho (ECD), desenvolvido por Joe Bain, e das teorias de estrutura de mercado (em especial das teorias de submercados e de rotas tecnológicas) de John Sutton (1991 e 1998). Pretende-se elucidar as seguintes indagações: o por quê das usinas integradas se manterem no Brasil frente à ascensão das aciarias elétricas (mini-mills) que ocorre no cenário mundial? Qual é a evolução tecnológica dessa indústria e seus impactos sobre sua estrutura? E, por fim, quais são as razões para o uso tanto de carvão vegetal quanto de carvão mineral na produção de aço bruto em grande escala no Brasil, mas não em outros países? Os dois arcabouços teóricos considerados auxiliam na explicação de na indústria siderúrgica do Brasil haver dois submercados independentes que se diferenciam por suas rotas tecnológicas (usinas integradas versus usinas semi-integradas) e por sua classe de produtos (aços planos versus aços longos). Sob a ótica da teoria de Sutton (1998) ainda é possível fazer algumas inferências quanto à tomada de decisão em nível da empresa, a qual se depara com duas estratégias distintas: a de escalada e a de proliferação. A primeira diz respeito ao montante ao ser investido em P&D e a segunda se refere em quantas trajetórias e diferentes grupos de produtos a empresa irá atuar. Diante dessa segmentação da indústria buscou-se, a partir de análise econométrica, considerando os anos de 1996 a 2009, fundamentar as premissas de que tais submercados (aços longos versus planos) têm dinâmicas distintas nas relações entre concentração e investimentos, sendo possível identificar relação causal positiva entre investimentos em tecnologia e concentração na produção, principalmente no submercado produtor de aços longos, ou seja, à medida que aumentam os investimentos em tecnologia, a indústria tem sua estrutura alterada, passando a integrar suas rotas tecnológicas e, consequentemente, elevando a concentração do mercado. Já no submercado de aços planos, fica ilustrada a maturidade deste segmento da indústria siderúrgica no Brasil, com a concentração sendo marginalmente reduzida diante de variações no tamanho do mercado e nos investimentos. Além disso, os resultados econométricos mostram que, em ambos os submercados analisados (aço planos e longos), o papel do BNDES não foi fundamental em afetar a concentração no período de 1996 a 2009, apesar de ter tido esse papel em anos anteriores. / The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the evolution of the steel industry, mainly in the last three decades, and its recent configuration in Brazil under structureconduct- performance paradigm and Sutton\'s theories. It is aimed to answer some questions, such as: why the integrated mills still exist in Brazil as the mini-mills are surging in the world scenario; what is this industry technology evolution and how does it affect the industry structure? And so far, which are the main reasons to the existing of steel mills based on charcoal and coal at the same time, rather than in other countries? The two theoretical frameworks interact in the explanation of the existing of two independent submarkets in the steel industry in Brazil that are distinguished by their technological trajectories (integrated versus mini-mills) and by their list of products (flat versus long steel). From the Sutton\'s theory perspective, it is still possible to highlight some topics related to the firm decisionmaking level, which is faced with two distinct strategies: the escalation and the proliferation parameters. The first is related to the amount to be invested in R&D and the later refers to how many trajectories and groups the company will operate. Based on econometric analysis, in the time period from 1996 to 2009, are valid the assumptions that these submarkets have different dynamics in the relationship between concentration and investments. Also it is possible to identify positive causal effects concerning technology investments and industry concentration mainly on the long steel submarket, reflecting that as investments are increased, the industry structure is amended to integrate their technology trajectories and thus increasing industry concentration. About flat steel submarket it is showed the maturity of this segment as the concentration is marginally reduced in response to variations in market size and investment. Furthermore, in both submarkets (flat and long steel) it is evident that the BNDES\'s role was not crucial in affecting the concentration in the time period from 1996 to 2009, despite having had this role in previous years.

O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a evolução, principalmente nas últimas três décadas, e a configuração atual da indústria siderúrgica no Brasil sob a ótica do paradigma estrutura-conduta-desempenho (ECD), desenvolvido por Joe Bain, e das teorias de estrutura de mercado (em especial das teorias de submercados e de rotas tecnológicas) de John Sutton (1991 e 1998). Pretende-se elucidar as seguintes indagações: o por quê das usinas integradas se manterem no Brasil frente à ascensão das aciarias elétricas (mini-mills) que ocorre no cenário mundial? Qual é a evolução tecnológica dessa indústria e seus impactos sobre sua estrutura? E, por fim, quais são as razões para o uso tanto de carvão vegetal quanto de carvão mineral na produção de aço bruto em grande escala no Brasil, mas não em outros países? Os dois arcabouços teóricos considerados auxiliam na explicação de na indústria siderúrgica do Brasil haver dois submercados independentes que se diferenciam por suas rotas tecnológicas (usinas integradas versus usinas semi-integradas) e por sua classe de produtos (aços planos versus aços longos). Sob a ótica da teoria de Sutton (1998) ainda é possível fazer algumas inferências quanto à tomada de decisão em nível da empresa, a qual se depara com duas estratégias distintas: a de escalada e a de proliferação. A primeira diz respeito ao montante ao ser investido em P&D e a segunda se refere em quantas trajetórias e diferentes grupos de produtos a empresa irá atuar. Diante dessa segmentação da indústria buscou-se, a partir de análise econométrica, considerando os anos de 1996 a 2009, fundamentar as premissas de que tais submercados (aços longos versus planos) têm dinâmicas distintas nas relações entre concentração e investimentos, sendo possível identificar relação causal positiva entre investimentos em tecnologia e concentração na produção, principalmente no submercado produtor de aços longos, ou seja, à medida que aumentam os investimentos em tecnologia, a indústria tem sua estrutura alterada, passando a integrar suas rotas tecnológicas e, consequentemente, elevando a concentração do mercado. Já no submercado de aços planos, fica ilustrada a maturidade deste segmento da indústria siderúrgica no Brasil, com a concentração sendo marginalmente reduzida diante de variações no tamanho do mercado e nos investimentos. Além disso, os resultados econométricos mostram que, em ambos os submercados analisados (aço planos e longos), o papel do BNDES não foi fundamental em afetar a concentração no período de 1996 a 2009, apesar de ter tido esse papel em anos anteriores. / The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the evolution of the steel industry, mainly in the last three decades, and its recent configuration in Brazil under structureconduct- performance paradigm and Sutton\'s theories. It is aimed to answer some questions, such as: why the integrated mills still exist in Brazil as the mini-mills are surging in the world scenario; what is this industry technology evolution and how does it affect the industry structure? And so far, which are the main reasons to the existing of steel mills based on charcoal and coal at the same time, rather than in other countries? The two theoretical frameworks interact in the explanation of the existing of two independent submarkets in the steel industry in Brazil that are distinguished by their technological trajectories (integrated versus mini-mills) and by their list of products (flat versus long steel). From the Sutton\'s theory perspective, it is still possible to highlight some topics related to the firm decisionmaking level, which is faced with two distinct strategies: the escalation and the proliferation parameters. The first is related to the amount to be invested in R&D and the later refers to how many trajectories and groups the company will operate. Based on econometric analysis, in the time period from 1996 to 2009, are valid the assumptions that these submarkets have different dynamics in the relationship between concentration and investments. Also it is possible to identify positive causal effects concerning technology investments and industry concentration mainly on the long steel submarket, reflecting that as investments are increased, the industry structure is amended to integrate their technology trajectories and thus increasing industry concentration. About flat steel submarket it is showed the maturity of this segment as the concentration is marginally reduced in response to variations in market size and investment. Furthermore, in both submarkets (flat and long steel) it is evident that the BNDES\'s role was not crucial in affecting the concentration in the time period from 1996 to 2009, despite having had this role in previous years.

With the rise of digital platforms for the real estate market in Sweden, and their record of transaction data, there is still a lack of proper utilization and presentation of available data. The traditional geographical city areas are usually too large and varying to perform accurate analysis on. This report explores the possibility of dividing central Stockholm’s predefined city areas into smaller submarkets using data-driven methods. The smaller submarkets would provide a more homogeneous description of their respective area and serve as a better basis for valuation estimators. The creation of the submarkets are done through clustering, a subsection of Machine Learning. Different clustering algorithms are attempted in order to test for their fit to the model. Results are evaluated by analyzing the variance of attributes within and between the clusters, ensuring that variance is low within and high between. The results are also compared to predefined city areas, in order to ascertain the improvement achieved with the data-driven model. The data output is presented graphically in Google Maps for a visual evaluation while also allowing ease-of-use for potential commercial customers. The results were an interactive map with differentiated and mostly non-overlapping clusters. The best clustering algorithm was Hierarchical clustering that lowered the internal variance by 33% and increased the external variance by 171% compared to predefined city areas. A potential future use of properly delineated submarkets could include higher precision valuation estimators or more relevant apartment recommendations for a company such as Booli. / Trots den ökande användningen av digitala plattformar för bostadsmarknaden i Sverige samt mängden transaktionsdata som finns tillgänglig, så finns det få aktörer som utnyttjar detta fullt ut. De traditionella stadsområdena är ofta alltför stora och varierande för att utföra precisa analyser på. Denna rapport utforskar möjligheterna med att dela upp centrala Stockholms fördefinierade stadsområden till mindre submarknader genom datadrivna metoder. Dessa submarknader skulle ge en mer homogen beskrivning av deras respektive områden och fungera som en bättre utgångspunkt för prisvärdering. Framtagningen av submarknaderna görs genom klustring, en del utav maskininlärning. Olika klustringsalgoritmer implementeras för att testa deras förklaringsvärde. Resultaten utvärderades genom att analysera variansen av attributen inom och mellan klustren, sett till att variansen bör vara låg inom klustren och hög mellan klustren. Resultaten jämfördes även med förbestämda stadsområden, för att säkra den datadrivna modellens förbättring. Data outputen är presenterad grafiskt i Google Maps för visuell utvärdering medan det även tillåter enkel användning för potentiella slutkonsumenter. Resultatet av detta är en interaktiv karta med differentierade och mestadels icke-överlappande kluster. Denna rapport fann att den bästa klustringsmodellen var Hierarchical klustring som hade 33% lägre varians inom klustren samt 171% högre varians mellan klustren jämfört med förbestämda stadsområden. En potentiell framtida användning av klustrade submarknader skulle kunna vara mer precisa prisvärderingar eller mer relevanta bostadsrekommendationer för bolag så som Booli.

Cette thèse qui porte sur les marchés de bureaux se présente sous la forme de trois articles. Le premier a pour objectif d'identifier les déterminants persistants et transitoires de l'évolution des loyers de bureaux franciliens, à partir d'analyses de propriétés de co-intégration et de ruptures structurelles. Le second article porte sur l'étude des interactions entre les dynamiques des cinq sous-marchés qui composent le marché des bureaux de Central Paris. Plus précisément, la méthodologie adoptée permet de définir la nature des interactions en termes de substituabilité, complémentarité ou indépendance entre sous-marchés. Le troisième article contribue à l'étude du marché de l'immobilier d'un point de vue financier en analysant le' déterminants du taux de rendement du marché des bureaux au Royaume-Uni. Un modèle non ­linéaire à changement de régime permet de mesurer l'impact relatif de ces déterminants sur le taux de rendement en fonction de l'environnement monétaire et financier. / This thesis which focuses on office markets is composed of three papers. The first one aims at identifying the long-run and short-run determinants of the Greater Paris office market, combining cointegration and structural break approaches. The second paper focuses on the interactions between the dynamics of the five submarkets of the Central Paris area. The methodology used allows determining precisely the nature of the interrelations between the submarkets in terms of complementary, substitutability or independence. Finally, the third article contributes to financial analysis of the real estate field by investigating the determinants of yield in the UK office market. A nonlinear regime switching mode! permits to assess the relative impact of these determinants on yields depending on the overall monetary and financial conditions and notably liquidity conditions.