The objectives of the research study are to review existing subnational credit rating methodologies and their applicability in the South African context, to develop the quantitative parts of credit rating methodologies for two provincial departments (Department of Health and Department of Education) that best predict future payment behaviour, to test the appropriateness of the proposed methodologies and to construct the datasets needed. The literature study includes background information regarding the uniqueness of South Africa’s provinces and credit rating methodologies in general. This is followed by information on subnational credit rating methodologies, including a review of existing subnational credit rating methodologies and an assessment of the applicability of the information provided in the South African context. Lastly, the applicable laws and regulations within the South African regulatory framework are provided. The knowledge gained from the literature study is applied to the data that have been collected to predict the two departments’ future payment behaviour. Linear regression modelling is used to identify the factors that best predict future payment behaviour and to assign weights to the identified factors in a scientific manner. The resulting payment behaviour models can be viewed as the quantitative part of the credit ratings. This is followed by a discussion on further investigations to improve the models. The developed models (both the simple and the advanced models) are tested with regard to prediction accuracies using RAG (Red, Amber or Green) statuses. This is followed by recommendations regarding future model usage that conclude that the department-specific models outperform the generic models in terms of prediction accuracies. / PhD (Risk analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

The objectives of the research study are to review existing subnational credit rating methodologies and their applicability in the South African context, to develop the quantitative parts of credit rating methodologies for two provincial departments (Department of Health and Department of Education) that best predict future payment behaviour, to test the appropriateness of the proposed methodologies and to construct the datasets needed. The literature study includes background information regarding the uniqueness of South Africa’s provinces and credit rating methodologies in general. This is followed by information on subnational credit rating methodologies, including a review of existing subnational credit rating methodologies and an assessment of the applicability of the information provided in the South African context. Lastly, the applicable laws and regulations within the South African regulatory framework are provided. The knowledge gained from the literature study is applied to the data that have been collected to predict the two departments’ future payment behaviour. Linear regression modelling is used to identify the factors that best predict future payment behaviour and to assign weights to the identified factors in a scientific manner. The resulting payment behaviour models can be viewed as the quantitative part of the credit ratings. This is followed by a discussion on further investigations to improve the models. The developed models (both the simple and the advanced models) are tested with regard to prediction accuracies using RAG (Red, Amber or Green) statuses. This is followed by recommendations regarding future model usage that conclude that the department-specific models outperform the generic models in terms of prediction accuracies. / PhD (Risk analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

The aim of this study is to analyse and describe the role of sub-national governments (SNG’s) in foreign policy and how the conduct of diplomacy has developed in the South African context, and to assess why and how provinces engage in this phenomenon. The theoretical approach to this study is embedded in neo-functionalism. In order to illustrate this, the South African province, the Limpopo Province is used as an illustrative case study. In particular, the study will analyse the role of the International Relations Unit (IRU) within the Office of the Premier (OtP) in the Limpopo Province as a case study. Limpopo is the main focus of this study because it, inter alia, borders on three sovereign states (Botswana, Mozambique and Zimbabwe) which place the province in a good position to engage in international relations, mutual intentions and friendly relations with its neighbouring and other distant countries. The results of this study is that provinces have become important foreign policy and international relations actors in the area of low politics; however the national government remains as the main actor in the international relations and foreign policy making process. The results also indicate that Limpopo is being proactive in facilitating and accelerating the realisation of the foreign policy objectives since provinces engage with international activities that run in parallel with the objectives and principles of the national foreign policy. The study contributes to the literature on SNG’s diplomacy in South Africa. It also lays the foundation for further research in other SNG’s diplomacy especially in Africa by employing other theories that have been ignored including African theories. / Political Sciences / M.A. (Politics)

The aim of this study is to analyse and describe the role of sub-national governments (SNG’s) in foreign policy and how the conduct of diplomacy has developed in the South African context, and to assess why and how provinces engage in this phenomenon. The theoretical approach to this study is embedded in neo-functionalism. In order to illustrate this, the South African province, the Limpopo Province is used as an illustrative case study. In particular, the study will analyse the role of the International Relations Unit (IRU) within the Office of the Premier (OtP) in the Limpopo Province as a case study. Limpopo is the main focus of this study because it, inter alia, borders on three sovereign states (Botswana, Mozambique and Zimbabwe) which place the province in a good position to engage in international relations, mutual intentions and friendly relations with its neighbouring and other distant countries. The results of this study is that provinces have become important foreign policy and international relations actors in the area of low politics; however the national government remains as the main actor in the international relations and foreign policy making process. The results also indicate that Limpopo is being proactive in facilitating and accelerating the realisation of the foreign policy objectives since provinces engage with international activities that run in parallel with the objectives and principles of the national foreign policy. The study contributes to the literature on SNG’s diplomacy in South Africa. It also lays the foundation for further research in other SNG’s diplomacy especially in Africa by employing other theories that have been ignored including African theories. / Political Sciences / M.A. (Politics)

Desde 1994, ininterruptamente o PSDB elege seus candidatos ao governo do Estado de São Paulo. Hegemonia eleitoral de tamanha duração vitória em seis eleições consecutivas não foi alcançada por nenhum outro partido em pleitos estaduais na história democrática brasileira recente. Tal feito é ainda mais relevante ao levarmos em conta a trajetória eleitoral paulista, historicamente associada a quadros partidários e resultados das urnas surpreendentes. Assim, o objetivo desta pesquisa é identificar as bases sociais e territoriais do voto nos principais partidos do Estado de São Paulo, com ênfase no PSDB. Para tanto, utilizamos as seguintes variáveis: pesquisas eleitorais estratificadas por renda e escolaridade; tamanho dos municípios; nível de desenvolvimento médio das localidades (ao nível das zonas eleitorais e municípios) para duas regiões previamente estabelecidas a Grande São Paulo e o interior. Identificamos que o partido tucano obtém apoio crescente na medida em que se elevam os índices socioeconômicos do eleitorado. O partido, porém, mantém um importante suporte entre os setores populares sobretudo no interior do Estado. Por fim, ainda que obtenha penetração elevada em todos os municípios paulistas, o PSDB possui melhores resultados nas pequenas localidades. Ao final, discutimos estes achados à luz do panorama eleitoral, partidário e federativo no Brasil. / Since 1994 until this date the Social Democrat Brazilian Party PSDB has been continuously able to elect its candidates to the government of the state of São Paulo. Electoral hegemony for a very long time victory in 6 consecutive elections, it has been unmatched by any other party in any State of the federation in the history of Brazilian Democracy. This is extraordinary especially if we take on account the electoral politics in the history of São Paulo where political parties and election results are usually full of surprises. Thus the objective of this research is to identify the social and territorial localization of voters according to the major parties present in the State of São Paulo, emphasizing the PSDB. In order to achieve this analysis we work with the following variables: electoral surveys stratified by income and level of education; size of the municipalities; average development of the localities (at the level of constituencies and municipalities) for two regions previously selected: the Great São Paulo and the inland. We identified a growing support to PSDB as the income rises. Nevertheless the party maintains an important level of support among the popular sectors - especially in the inland of the State of São Paulo. Finally, although it has obtained a high level of support in all the municipalities of the State of São Paulo, PSDB had its best results in the small localities. These data are discussed in the light of the political and electoral panorama in Brazil.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo Carvalho Tapia Lira.pdf: 1286443 bytes, checksum: 62f3cefe3bc713ec45e832d58c5d8dec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-06-02 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This study consists in analysis of the application of oil revenues in Brazil. Depart from the hypothesis that this application should be attentive to the intergenerational justice, as it is a non-renewable mineral resource and much of its use should be invested in public policy on future generations. Our analysis will focus on the capture of these rents by the State of Rio de Janeiro, in the form of royalties and special taxes which were used to pay the public debt with the Federal Government as part of the fiscal adjustment program. In our investigation, the application of these rents, justified in the interests of macroeconomic equilibrium, it can be explain by the fundamentals elements of contemporary capitalism, the financialization" / Este trabalho se propõe a estudar a aplicação das rendas do petróleo no Brasil. Partiremos da hipótese de que sua aplicação deve se ater à questão intergeracional, uma vez que se trata de um recurso mineral não renovável e boa parte de seu uso deveria ser investido em políticas públicas voltadas às gerações futuras. Nossa análise se concentrará na captação destas rendas pelo Estado do Rio de Janeiro, sob a forma de tributos (royalties e participações especiais), que foram entregues à União a fim de saldar parte de suas dívidas negociadas no Programa de Apoio à Reestruturação e ao Ajuste Fiscal dos Estados. Em nossa interpretação, a forma de aplicação atual destas rendas, justificadas em prol de um equilíbrio financeiro e fiscal do governo federal, faz parte do movimento de financeirização da economia

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:46:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 HENRIQUE SARTORI DE ALMEIDA PRADO.pdf: 1393843 bytes, checksum: 65740b84b25a2695bc9be330a0b0e775 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-07-02 / This dissertation deals with the subject "The insertion of subnational actors in the process of regional integration: the case of MERCOSUL." This study aims to examine the involvement of subnational actors in the process of regional integration, through the paradiplomacy, based on the integrative experience of the Southern area of South America. The research deals with the historical development, characteristics and development of the regional integration process and outlines a comparative study on the constitutional limitations of foreign participation of subnational entities of Member States of MERCOSUL. Finally, this work describes the experiences of subnational integration within MERCOSUL and the concern to justify the action of these actors in the international sphere. / A presente dissertação dispõe sobre o tema A inserção dos atores subnacionais no processo de integração regional: o caso do MERCOSUL . Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar a participação dos atores subnacionais no processo de integração regional, através do instituto da paradiplomacia, tendo como base a experiência integrativa do Cone Sul da América do Sul. A pesquisa dispõe sobre a evolução histórica, características e desenvolvimento do processo de integração regional e traça um estudo comparativo sobre as limitações constitucionais da participação externa dos entes subnacionais dos Estados Parte do MERCOSUL. Por fim, este trabalho descreve as experiências de integração subnacional no âmbito do MERCOSUL e a preocupação em legitimar a ação desses atores na esfera internacional.

O fenômeno da globalização acelerou e intensificou a inserção de novos atores no Sistema internacional, especialmente durante as duas últimas décadas. Este trabalho propõe-se a revisar os principais aportes teóricos feitos sobre o tema, utilizando como análise prática um projeto de cooperação internacional de um ente subnacional brasileiro com outro de atuação internacional. Desde teorias consolidadas das Relações Internacionais como a Interdependência Complexa, ou o Construtivismo, passando pela discussão do papel do Estado no Sistema Internacional, novas teorias surgem para consolidar a inserção destes novos atores no Sistema e seus impactos no aumento do desenvolvimento sócio econômico global. Neste trabalho, iremos retomar não só as perspectivas clássicas, mas também novas contribuições teóricas a respeito do papel do ente subnacional como ator internacional. Focalizaremos nosso estudo em um projeto de cooperação internacional entre dois atores distintos, verificando a importância desta parceria através de indicadores (relevância, eficácia, efetividade, impactos e sustentabilidade) para demonstrar se o processo de descentralização da cooperação internacional impactou ou não sobre os resultados obtidos. Para tanto, foi feita a escolha de um estudo de caso, o Projeto de Polícia Comunitária designado Sistema KOBAN, entre a Agência de Cooperação Internacional Japonesa - JICA e a Polícia Militar do Estado de São Paulo - PMESP. O projeto foi estabelecido em duas etapas, uma centralizada e outra descentralizada. A primeira fase do projeto foi realizada entre 2005-2007, com 8 bases pilotos distribuídas pelo município de São Paulo. No final de 2006, as unidades foram expandidas em razão dos bons resultados obtidos, em mais 12 (doze) Bases Comunitárias de Segurança, sendo 8 (oito) na capital do estado de São Paulo, 2 (duas) na região metropolitana e mais 2 (duas) no interior. Em 2008, mais uma ampliação foi feita das Bases Piloto, de forma que até o ano de 2011, atuavam 54 (cinquenta e quatro) bases dentro do Projeto. A segunda etapa foi acordada em um novo projeto, agora entre a Secretaria Nacional de Segurança Pública SENASP e a JICA, com contribuição da PMESP para expansão e replicação do projeto em outros estados brasileiros. / The globalization phenomenon has accelerated and intensified the inclusion of new actors in the international system, especially during the last two decades. This study aims to review the main theoretical contributions made on the topic, using as practical analysis of an international cooperation project of a subnational entity with another of international operation. From consolidated theories of International Relations, as Complex Interdependence, or Constructivism, through the discussion of the role of the State in the International System, new theories arise to consolidate the integration of these new actors in the system and their impact on increasing the overall socio-economic development. In this work, we will recover not only the classical perspectives, but also new theoretical contributions on the role of sub-national entity as an international actor. We will focus our study on a project of international cooperation between two distinct actors, verifying the importance of this partnership through indicators (relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainability) to demonstrate the process of decentralization of international cooperation and its impacts on the results. To that end, the present work followed a specific case study: a community policing system project denominated \"KOBAN\", between the Japanese International Cooperation Agency - JICA and the Military Police of the State of São Paulo - PMESP. The project was established in two stages, one centralized and one decentralized. The first phase of the project was carried out between 2005-2007, with 8 experimental bases distributed over the municipality of São Paulo. In late 2006, the units were expanded due to the good results obtained into twelve (12) Community Safety Bases, 8 (eight) in the capital of the state of São Paulo, two (2) in the metropolitan area and 2 more (two) inside. In 2008, another expansion was made, so that by the year 2011, 54 (fifty-four) bases worked within the Project. The second stage was agreed on a new project, now between the National Public Security - SENASP and JICA, with the contribution of PMESP on the expansion and replication of the project in other states.

A despeito da crescente literatura sobre a atuação internacional dos governos locais, permanece a percepção de que faltam perspectivas teóricas e empíricas que abordem os fatores que influenciam na formação das estruturas e estratégias internacionais na gestão pública local. Tendo em vista tais carências, a presente tese tem por objetivos apresentar (i) uma discussão teórica e conceitual sobre o tema, propondo a utilização do termo \"relações externas subnacionais\" como conceito mais adequado à descrição do fenômeno em estudo; (ii) um instrumento de análise que relaciona os principais fatores impulsionadores das relações externas subnacionais propostos por Kuznetsov (2015) aos três níveis da paradiplomacia propostos por Lecours (2008) - econômico, político e de cooperação; e (iii) uma análise comparativa dos casos de São Paulo e Toronto, explorando os respectivos processos de institucionalização das relações externas destas duas cidades. Analisando-se o processo de institucionalização das relações externas na gestão local das duas cidades, verificou-se a existência de três principais aspectos que influenciaram tal processo: (i) o contexto econômico, político e social de cada cidade; (ii) a relação entre o tipo de federalismo existente no Brasil e Canadá e o estabelecimento de relações externas no nível local; e (iii) o perfil de atuação do gestor público local. / Despite a growing literature on the subject of the international insertion of local governments, there is still a lack of theoretical and empirical perspectives that appropriately approach the several factors that influence the formation of the structures that deal with the international strategies within local public management. Due to this shortage, this thesis is focused on offering (i) a conceptual and theoretical discussion on the subject, proposing the adoption of the term \"subnational foreign relations\" as a more adequate concept to describe the phenomenon in analysis; (ii) an analytical framework that connect the main causes for boosting subnational foreign relations, according to Kuznetsov (2015) to the three layers of paradiplomacy according to Lecours (2008) - economic, cooperation and political; and (iii) a comparative analysis between the cases of São Paulo and Toronto, exploring the processes of institutionalization of foreign relations in the public management of both cities. By describing and analyzing these processes, this thesis encountered the existence of three main causes for a deepening institutionalization of the foreign relations in the local public apparatus on both cities: (i) the economic, political and social context of each city; (ii) the relationship between the type of federalism of Brazil and Canada and the establishment of foreign relations in the local level; and (iii) the performance profile the mayor.

Submitted by Elesbão Santiago Neto (neto10uepb@cche.uepb.edu.br) on 2016-09-12T18:49:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - João Ricardo Pessoa Xavier de Siqueira.pdf: 8301901 bytes, checksum: 9eb463c2bcaf20c5be4bfaa1b894ca5b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-12T18:49:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - João Ricardo Pessoa Xavier de Siqueira.pdf: 8301901 bytes, checksum: 9eb463c2bcaf20c5be4bfaa1b894ca5b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-11-30 / CAPES / The contemporary international scenario, outlined by the paradigm of globalization, is characterized by the admission of new players that can articulate themselves in an interdependent manner. Inserted in the wide range which consists the group of these new players, are subnational governments and their international articulation models that characterize the phenomenon of paradiplomacy. Among the objectives that guided the research, we tried to approach the paradiplomatic phenomenon as a result of changes in the prevailing world order, characterizing it as an effect of the subnational actors‟ behavior in face to the new governance standards. Furthermore, paradiplomacy was framed up as a viable institute for the development of the Brazilian federation‟s constituent units. Therefore, the work was based on a case study with descriptive-analytical character that had as objects of observation the state of Pernambuco and the city of Recife, with their respective models of international insertion and articulation. We took as guiding theoretical referential the literature already produced in the area consisting primarily on the studies by Soldatos, Paquin, Lecours and Prieto. In the present study it was possible to set up the analysis on the efficacy of paradiplomatic activity on two levels: state and municipal through paradiplomacy performed by the two subnational governments already mentioned via autonomous agencies. / O cenário internacional contemporâneo, delineado pelo paradigma da globalização, caracteriza-se pela admissão de novos atores que se articulam de maneira interdependente. Inseridos na ampla gama que constitui o grupo desses novos agentes, encontram-se os governos subnacionais e os modelos de articulação internacional que caracterizam o fenômeno da paradiplomacia. Dentre os objetivos norteadores da pesquisa, buscou-se a abordagem do fenômeno paradiplomático como resultado das transformações na ordem mundial vigente, caracterizando-o como efeito do comportamento de atores subnacionais frente aos novos padrões de governança. Além disso, enquadramos a paradiplomacia como um instituto viável ao desenvolvimento das unidades constituintes da federação brasileira. Para tanto, o trabalho valeu-se de um estudo de caso de caráter descritivo-analítico que teve como objetos de observação o estado de Pernambuco e a cidade do Recife, com seus respectivos modelos de inserção e articulação internacional. Tomou-se como referencial teórico norteador a bibliografia já produzida na área, constituída principalmente pelos estudos de Soldatos, Paquin, Lecours e Prieto. Pelo presente estudo foi possível estabelecer a análise da eficácia da atuação paradiplomática em dois níveis: estadual e municipal, através da paradiplomacia desempenhada pelos dois governos subnacionais supracitados via órgãos autonomamente considerados.