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Improving The Production Forecasts : Developing a Forecasting Model Using Exponential SmoothingAda Fatemeh, Rezai January 2024 (has links)
This research is motivated by identified gaps in contemporary planning practices and production processes within firms. Relying solely on experiential knowledge has proven limiting, necessitating a more systematic approach. Previous instances of data anomalies, particularly ongoing challenges in achieving satisfactory delivery reliability, have underlined the need for deeper insights into underlying patterns. The objectives of this study are: • To identify and analyze specific obstacles and challenges affecting load balance and delivery security in Borl.nge's production system. • To explore various methods or strategies aimed at enhancing the process of generating reliable capacity forecasting methods. Both primary and secondary research methods were employed. Primary methods included interviews and the development of a forecast model, while secondary studies encompassed the latest research in the field. The thesis revealed five primary factors hindering capacity attainment: 1. WIP(work in progress)/ slabs material shortages disrupt production flow and escalate costs due to the need for external sourcing of slabs. 2. Transport issues, including incorrect internal deliveries and the weather conditions, pose challenges. 3. Personnel shortages hinder the efficient utilization of production capacity. 4. Machine breakdowns result in production interruptions, leading to capacity loss and inefficiency. 5. Inventory problems, such as insufficient capacity and poor management, impede smooth production operations. Additionally, the second objective was addressed by implementing exponential smoothing for capacity planning forecasts. By updating forecasts every 13 weeks, this study improves the production forecast.
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Sales and Operations Planning Framework : How to balance demand and supply for a project-oriented and complex organization operating inthe aerospace and defence industryBergstedt, Malin January 2019 (has links)
One challenge organizations are facing in all industries is determining the likely events of the future and developing strategies to handle these challenges. Sales and operations planning are a decision-making process and tool that helps organizations to allocate resources not only to handle the challenges but also to take advantage of future conditions by balancing supply and demand. There is only a limited amount of framework and models available today. This project will divulge and reveal a new framework for sales and operations planning which has been developed in collaboration with an organization operating in the aerospace and defence industry. The basis of the framework consists of a monthly five step process that facilitates the organization in making decisions based on long term (five-years) organizational goals and tying them in with project specific needs. Ultimately, this will provide a centralized system in meeting current project specific demands whilst ensuring future operations are not compromised but enhanced. The company’s current sales and operations planning maturity level was evaluated and compared to the developed framework to find gaps of what needs to change for the company to have proactive sales and operations planning.
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Výkonnost dodavatelsko-odběratelských vztahů na prvním stupni dodavatelského řetězce / The Performance of Supplier Customer Relationhips in first Stage of the Supply Chain.Chytilová, Ekaterina January 2013 (has links)
The construction of firm flexible logic chains is one of the priority directions in present-day market research and development. According to experts (M. Zelený, K. S. Kim,H. Liang, G.A. Knight), nowadays we face the relatively swift growth of small-scale and medium-scale companies which are taking all anvantages in the market. That’s why the customer-supplier relationship in a medium-scale business is now one of the lines of potential scientific research. This thesis provides the research of the customer-supplier relationship with first-level suppliers in the medium-scale companies with discontinuous custom production and other types of business without strict resrictions on geographic region. That’s why the customer-supplier relationship without both country-related conditions and characteristics of the business is under investigation. The main goal of the thesis is to develop the method of the selection of the first-level supplier in order to optimize an custom management in the medium-scale companies with the custom production and other types of business (delivery and/or providing services). The main goal to be achieved, the thesis contains: 1) The analysis of company’s satisfaction with the current level of provided relationship with the first-level supplier in logic chains in the medium-scale companies with the custom production and other types of business (delivery and/or providing services), the carying-out of the pilot research with the following analysis of the results. 2) The critical evaluation of currently provided information in the field of the customer-supplier relationship in a given type of companies. 3) The determination of criteria to evaluate the customer-supplier relationship and the elaboration of the universal tool to provide the comprehensive evaluation of the first-level suppliers in the given type of companies. 4) The primal affirmation and examination of the ability of the elaborated tool to operate. 5) The compilation of comparative visual case study. 6) The determination both research restrictions and the conditions of the practical use of the elaborated tool and the evaluation of the thesis contribution to science.
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Beyond the Aquifer : planning for San Antonio's future water supplyLaughlin, Nathan Daniel 24 November 2010 (has links)
This report examines water supply planning issues in San Antonio, Texas. San
Antonio is unique among large cities in the United States in that it relies almost
exclusively on a single source, the Edwards Aquifer, for its water supply. Because San
Antonio’s water demand is projected to outgrow the Aquifer’s capacity, the city must
consider other options to extend and augment its current water supply. After describing
the hydrogeology and water supply history of San Antonio, this report explains the multitiered
water planning structure and current and future water needs for the city. It then
studies and evaluates three short-to-mid term water supply options. By continuing to
develop its already successful water conservation programs and water reclamation
system, San Antonio can delay the need for more costly and environmentally impactful
water supply options down the road, and wisely manage the resources it already draws
from. / text
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Výkonnost dodavatelsko-odběratelských vztahů na prvním stupni dodavatelského řetězce / The Performance of Supplier Customer Relationhips in first Stage of the Supply ChainChytilová, Ekaterina January 2013 (has links)
The construction of solid flexible supply networks is one of the priority trends of research and development in present-day market. According to experts (Zelený M., 2006; Kim K.S., Liang, H., Knight, G.A., 2008), small and medium-sized industrial enterprises are currently developing a relatively fast pace. Therefore, one potential direction of scientific development is the area of supplier-customer relations for small and medium business. This thesis provides the research of the supplier- customer relationship in the first stage for the medium-size enterprises with discontinuous custom production and other types of business. In the dissertation are discussed ties in supplier-customer relationships without specifying the properties and characteristics of entrepreneurship in the European Union and the Russian Federation. The main goal of the thesis is to develop the method of the selection of the first stage supplier to optimize an order management in the companies of selected type. The main goal to be achieved, the thesis contains the partial objectives: • The analysis of company’s satisfaction with the current level of provided relationship with the first stage supplier in logistics chains in enterprises of selected type, the carrying-out of the pilot research with the following analysis of the results. • The critical evaluation of currently provided information in the field of the supplier- customer relationship in a selected type of companies. • The elaboration of the universal tool to provide the comprehensive evaluation of the first stage suppliers in the selected type of companies. • The primal affirmation and examination of the ability of the elaborated tool to operate. The compilation of comparative illustrative case study. • Setting limits and conditions for the application of elaborated tool in practice and evaluation of scientific contribution.
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Hierarquização de ações pré avaliatórias para o gerenciamento dos sistemas de abastecimento de água / Hierarchy of pre evaluative actions for the management of water supply systemsManca, Ricardo da Silva, 1977- 22 January 2015 (has links)
Orientadores: José Gilberto Dalfré Filho, Antonio Carlos Zuffo / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T05:15:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Manca_RicardodaSilva_D.pdf: 9827173 bytes, checksum: 450008bf7cf24543fd46e355c0e9e892 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: A discussão acerca do gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos torna-se mais complexa e importante à medida que ocorre a integração entre todas as medidas cabíveis, tanto na oferta quanto na demanda, que permitem o uso eficiente da água. No entanto, ainda há um longo caminho a percorrer para assegurar a distribuição eficiente e equitativa da água. Se os planos voltados à distribuição de água buscavam somente novas captações, atualmente, precisam incorporar novas ferramentas de gestão, tais como a redução das perdas de água, o reúso, o racionamento, a bonificação e tarifação, as campanhas de incentivo à redução do consumo. Mesmo que todas as alternativas do gerenciamento da demanda sejam importantes, é preciso que se definam quais as ações que realmente podem ser valoradas e mensuradas de acordo com a responsabilidade do gestor do sistema, ou seja, há uma enorme dificuldade em se ponderar opções que poderiam contribuir com o aumento da disponibilidade de água de uma região, mas que dependem de fatores externos não controláveis, como fatores climáticos e conscientização da sociedade. Nesse sentido, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi identificar e hierarquizar as principais ações de atuação na demanda hídrica que podem contribuir para o aumento da disponibilidade de água da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Fazendo uso do método de tomada de decisão Delphi e das metodologias multicriteriais AHP, CP e CGT, a avaliação dos resultados mostra que medidas como o reúso e a redução de perdas são aliados importantes e que podem contribuir para a diminuição da escassez hídrica nesta região. Dessa forma, conhecendo-se as duas principais medidas prioritárias para a Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, o trabalho propõe a criação do Gerenciamento Integrado da Demanda de Água Prioritário (GIDAP), que avalia todas as medidas no estudo da demanda, porém, com valoração maior para o reúso e a redução de perdas de água / Abstract: The discussion about the management of water resources becomes more complex and important as the integration occurs between all appropriate measures, both supply and demand, which allow the efficient use of water. However, there is still a long way to go to ensure the efficient and equitable distribution of water. If the trend of the traditional planning of water distribution is only the search for new funding nowadays it is necessary to incorporate new management tools, such as the reduction of water losses, reuse, rationing, the subsidy and pricing, incentive campaigns to reduction of consumption. Even if all the demand management alternatives are important, it is necessary to define what actions can actually be valued and measured in accordance with the system manager's responsibility, ie, there is a huge difficulty in considering options that could contribute to the increased availability of water in a region, but that depend on uncontrollable external factors such as climatic factors and awareness of society. In this sense, the objective of this research was to identify and prioritize the key working actions in water demand that may contribute to the increased availability of water in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. Making use of the decision-making method Delphi and multicriteria methodologies AHP, CP and CGT, the evaluation of the results shows that measures such as the reuse and waste reduction are important allies and that can contribute to the reduction of water scarcity in the region. Thus, knowing the two main priorities for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, the paper proposes the creation of the Integrated Management of Water Demand Priority (GIDAP), which assesses all the measures on the demand study, however, with valuation highest to reuse and reduction of water losses / Doutorado / Recursos Hidricos, Energeticos e Ambientais / Doutor em Engenharia Civil
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