Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering / Stacy L. Hutchinson / The Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is widely used to estimate direct runoff from rainfall events; however, the method does not account for the dynamic rainfall-runoff relationship. This study used back-calculated curve numbers (CNs) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to develop NDVI-based CNs (CN[subscript]NDV) using four small northeastern Kansas grassland watersheds with average areas of 1 km² and twelve years (2001–2012) of daily precipitation and runoff data. Analysis indicated that the CN[subscript]NDVI model improved runoff predictions compared to the SCS-CN method. The CN[subscript]NDVI also showed greater variability in CNs, especially during growing season, thereby increasing the model’s ability to estimate relatively accurate runoff from rainfall events since most rainfall occurs during the growing season. The CN[subscript]NDVI model was applied to small, disturbed grassland watersheds to assess the model’s ability to detect land cover change impact for military maneuver damage and large, diverse land use/cover watersheds to assess the impact of scaling up the model. CN[subscript]NDVI application was assessed using a paired watershed study at Fort Riley, Kansas. Paired watersheds were identified through k-means and hierarchical-agglomerative clustering techniques. At the large watershed scale, Daymet precipitation was used to estimate runoff, which was compared to direct runoff extracted from stream flow at gauging points for Chapman (grassland dominated) and Upper Delaware (agriculture dominated) watersheds. In large, diverse watersheds, CN[subscript]NDVI performed better in moderate and overall flow years. Overall, CN[subscript]NDVI more accurately simulated runoff compared to SCS-CN results: The calibrated model increased by 0.91 for every unit increase in observed flow (r = 0.83), while standard CN-based flow increased by 0.506 for every unit increase in observed flow (r = 0.404). Therefore, CN[subscript]NDVI could help identify land use/cover changes and disturbances and spatiotemporal changes in runoff at various scales. CN[subscript]NDVI could also be used to accurately estimate runoff from precipitation events in order to instigate more timely land management decisions.

<p>Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins (PUB) is a process generating streamflow time series at ungauged reaches in a river network. PUB is essential for facilitating various engineering tasks such as managing stormwater, water resources, and water-related environmental impacts. Machine Learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for PUB using its generalization process to capture the streamflow generation processes from hydrological datasets (observations). ML’s generalization process is impacted by two major components: data splitting process of observations and the architecture design. To unveil the potential limitations of ML’s generalization process, this dissertation explores its robustness and associated uncertainty. More precisely, this dissertation has three objectives: (1) analyzing the potential uncertainty caused by the data splitting process for ML modeling, (2) investigating the improvement of ML models’ performance by incorporating hydrological processes within their architectures, and (3) identifying the potential biases in ML’s generalization process regarding the trend and periodicity of streamflow simulations.</p><p>The first objective of this dissertation is to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty caused by the regular data splitting process for ML modeling. The regular data splitting process in ML was initially designed for homogeneous and stationary datasets, but it may not be suitable for hydrological datasets in the context of PUB studies. Hydrological datasets usually consist of data collected from diverse watersheds with distinct streamflow generation regimes influenced by varying meteorological forcing and watershed characteristics. To address the potential inconsistency in the data splitting process, multiple data splitting scenarios are generated using the Monte Carlo method. The scenario with random data splitting results accounts for frequent covariate shift and tends to add uncertainty and biases to ML’s generalization process. The findings in this objective suggest the importance of avoiding the covariate shift during the data splitting process when developing ML models for PUB to enhance the robustness and reliability of ML’s performance.</p><p>The second objective of this dissertation is to investigate the improvement of ML models’ performance brought by Physics-Guided Architecture (PGA), which incorporates ML with the rainfall abstraction process. PGA is a theory-guided machine learning framework integrating conceptual tutors (CTs) with ML models. In this study, CTs correspond to rainfall abstractions estimated by Green-Ampt (GA) and SCS-CN models. Integrating the GA model’s CTs, which involves information on dynamic soil properties, into PGA models leads to better performance than a regular ML model. On the contrary, PGA models integrating the SCS-CN model's CTs yield no significant improvement of ML model’s performance. The results of this objective demonstrate that the ML’s generalization process can be improved by incorporating CTs involving dynamic soil properties.</p><p>The third objective of this dissertation is to explore the limitations of ML’s generalization process in capturing trend and periodicity for streamflow simulations. Trend and periodicity are essential components of streamflow time series, representing the long-term correlations and periodic patterns, respectively. When the ML models generate streamflow simulations, they tend to have relatively strong long-term periodic components, such as yearly and multiyear periodic patterns. In addition, compared to the observed streamflow data, the ML models display relatively weak short-term periodic components, such as daily and weekly periodic patterns. As a result, the ML’s generalization process may struggle to capture the short-term periodic patterns in the streamflow simulations. The biases in ML’s generalization process emphasize the demands for external knowledge to improve the representation of the short-term periodic components in simulating streamflow.</p>

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Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / The transport of excess nutrients, sediment, and other contaminants to surface waters has been shown to cause a number of environmental and human health concerns. An understanding of the export pathways that these contaminants follow to surrounding water bodies is crucial to the anticipation and management of peak concentration events. Several studies have demonstrated that the majority of annual contaminant loading in the Midwest occurs during periods of elevated discharge. However, many studies use a limited number of sampling points to determine concentration patterns, loadings, and fluxes which decreases accuracy. Through high-resolution storm sampling conducted in a 2945 km2 (1137 mi2) area of central Indiana’s Upper White River Watershed, this research has documented the complex concentration signals and fluxes associated with a suite of cations, nutrients, and contaminants and isolated their primary transport pathways. Additionally, by comparing the results of similar studies conducted on smaller areas within this watershed, differences in concentration patterns and fluxes, as they relate to drainage area, have also been documented. Similar to the results of previous studies, NO3- concentrations lacked a well-defined relationship relative to discharge and was attributed to primarily subsurface contribution. DOC was exported along a shallow, lateral subsurface pathway, TP and TSS via overland flow, and TKN through a combination of both. Near or in-channel scouring of sediment increased DOC, TKN, TP, and TSS concentrations during Storm 2. Atrazine export was attributed to a combination of overland and subsurface pathways. 2-MIB and geosmin derived from different sources and pathways despite being produced by similar organisms. 2-MIB concentration patterns were characterized by dilution of an in-stream source during Storm 1 and potential sediment export during Storm 2 while in-stream concentrations or a sediment source of geosmin was rapidly exhausted during Storm 1. Many of the concentration patterns were subject to an exaggerated averaging effect due to the mixing of several larger watersheds, especially during Storm 1. This research illustrates the need for high-frequency sampling to accurately quantify contaminant loads for total maximum daily load (TMDL) values, developing best management practices (BMPs), and confronting the challenges associated with modeling increasingly larger-scale watersheds.

<p>  </p> <p>The management of water resources in East Africa is inherently challenged by rainfall variability and the uneven spatial distribution of freshwater resources. In addition to these issues, meteorological and water data collection has been inconsistent over the past decades, and unclearly defined purposes or end goals for collected data have left many datasets ineffectively curated. In light of the data intensiveness of current modelling and planning methods, data scarcity and inaccessibility have become substantial impediments to informed decision-making. Among the outputs of this research are 1) a revised technique for evaluating bias correction performance on reanalysis data for use in regions where precipitation data is temporally discontinuous which can potentially be applied to other types of climate data as well, 2) a new methodology for quantifying qualitative information contained in legislation and official documents and websites for the assessment of relationships between documented meteorological and water data policies and resulting outcomes in terms of data availability and accessibility, and 3) a fresh look at data needs and the value data holds with respect to water resources decision-making and management in the region.</p>

<p> The hydrological cycle is affected by land use variability. Land use spatial and temporal variability has the power to alter watershed runoff, water resource quantity and quality, ecosystems, and environmental sustainability. In recent decades, agriculture lands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have increased, resulting in significant increases in energy, water, and fertilizer usage, as well as significant biodiversity losses. </p>

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