The land surface is a key component of the climate system and exchanges energy, water and carbon with the overlying atmosphere. It is the location of the terrestrial carbon sink and changes in the land surface can impact weather and climate at various time and spatial scales. It's ability to act as a source or a sink can influence atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Both models and observations have shown the reduced ability of the land surface to absorb increased anthropogenic CO2 emissions with results from the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have shown that the terrestrial carbon cycle is a major source of model uncertainty. Land surface models (LSMs) represent the interaction between the biosphere and atmosphere in earth system models (ESMs) and are important for simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle. In the context of land surface modelling, uncertainty arises from an incomplete understanding of land surface processes and the inability to model these processes correctly. As LSMs become more advanced, there is a need to understand their accuracy. In this thesis, the ability of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), the land surface scheme of the UK Met Office United Model, to simulate Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) fluxes is evaluated at various spatial scales (point, regional and global) in order to identify and quantify sources of uncertainty in the model. This thesis has three main objectives. Firstly, JULES is evaluated at the point scale across a range of biomes and climatic conditions using local (site-specific), global and satellite datasets. It was found that JULES is biased with total annual GPP underestimated by 16% and 30% across all sites compared to observations when using local and global data, respectively. The model's phenology module was tested by comparing results from simulations using the default phenology model to those forced with leaf area index (LAI) from the MODIS sensor. Model parameters were found to be a minor source of uncertainty compared to the meteorological driving data at the point scale as was the default phenology module in JULES. Secondly, in addition to evaluating simulated GPP fluxes at the point scale, the ability of JULES to simulate GPP at the global and regional scale for 2000-2010 was investigated with being able to simulate interannual variability and simulated global GPP estimates were found to be greater than the observation-based estimates, FLUXNET-MTE and MODIS, by 8% and 25%, respectively. At the regional scale, differences in GPP between JULES, FLUXNET-MTE and MODIS were observed mostly in the tropics and this was the reason for differences at the global scale. Simulating tropical GPP was found to be a major source of uncertainty in JULES. JULES was found to be insensitive to spatial resolution and when driven with the PRINCETON meteorological dataset, differences between model simulations driven using WFDEI-GPCC and PRINCETON occurred in the tropics (at 5°N-5°S) and extratropics (at 30°N-60°N). Finally, the response of JULES to changes in climate (surface air temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentrations) was explored at the global and regional scale. Simulated GPP was found to have greater sensitivity to changes in precipitation and CO2 concentrations than air temperature at the global scale while LAI was sensitive only to changes in temperature and insensitive to changes in precipitation and CO2 concentrations. It was found that model sensitivity to climate at the global scale was determined by its behaviour at the regional scale.

This study advances understanding of how the changes in ecosystem structure and function associated with woody shrub encroachment in semi-arid grasslands alter ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics. In terms of both magnitude and dynamism, dryland ecosystems represent a major component of the global C cycle. Woody shrub encroachment is a widespread phenomenon globally, which is known to substantially alter ecosystem structure and function, with resultant impacts on C dynamics. A series of focal sites were studied at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico, USA. A space-for-time analogue was used to identify how landscape structure and function change at four stages over a grassland to shrubland transition. The research had three key threads: 1. Soil-associated carbon: Stocks of organic and inorganic C in the near-surface soil, and the redistribution of these C stocks by erosion during high-intensity rainfall events were quantified using hillslope-scale monitoring plots. Coarse (>2 mm) clasts were found to account for a substantial proportion of the organic and inorganic C in these calcareous soils, and the erosional effluxes of both inorganic and organic C increased substantially across the vegetation ecotone. Eroded sediment was found to be significantly enriched in organic C relative to the contributing soil with systematic changes in OC enrichment across the vegetation transition. The OC enrichment dynamics observed were inconsistent with existing understanding (derived largely from reductionist, laboratory-based experiments) that OC enrichment is largely insignificant in the erosional redistribution of C. 2. Plant biomass: Cutting-edge proximal remote sensing approaches, using a remotely piloted lightweight multirotor drone combined with structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry were developed and used to quantify biomass carbon stocks at the focal field sites. In such spatially heterogeneous and temporally dynamic ecosystems existing measurement techniques (e.g. on-the-ground observations or satellite- or aircraft-based remote sensing) struggle to capture the complexity of fine-grained vegetation structure, which is crucial for accurately estimating biomass. The data products available from the novel SfM approach developed for this research quantified plants just 15 mm high, achieving a fidelity nearly two orders of magnitude finer than previous implementations of the method. The approach developed here will revolutionise the study of biomass dynamics in short-sward ecogeomorphic systems. 3. Ecohydrological modelling: Understanding the effects of water-mediated degradation processes on ecosystem carbon dynamics over greater than observable spatio-temporal scales is complicated by significant scale-dependencies and thus requires detailed mechanistic understanding. A process-based, spatially-explicit ecohydrological modelling approach (MAHLERAN - Model for Assessing Hillslope to Landscape Erosion, Runoff and Nutrients) was therefore comprehensively evaluated against a large assemblage of rainfall runoff events. This evaluation highlighted both areas of strength in the current model structure, and also areas of weakness for further development. The research has improved understanding of ecosystem degradation processes in semi-arid rangelands, and demonstrates that woody shrub encroachment may lead to a long-term reduction in ecosystem C storage, which is contrary to the widely promulgated view that woody shrub encroachment increases C storage in terrestrial ecosystems.

This thesis research consists of two separate studies. The first study presents the assessment and representation of the effects of soil macropores on the soil hydraulic properties in land surface models for more accurate simulations of soil moisture and surface hydrology. Hydraulic properties determine the soil water content and its transport in the soil. They are provided in most current climate models as empirical formulas by functions of the soil texture. Such is not realistic if the soil contains a substantial amount of macropores. A two-mode soil pore size distribution is incorporated into a land surface model and tested using an observational dataset at a tropical forest site with aggregated soils. The result showed that the existence of macropores greatly affects the estimation of hydraulic properties. Their influence can be included in land models by adding a second function to the pore-size distribution. A practical hydraulic scheme with macropore considerations was proposed given that the existing schemes are not applicable for large-scale simulations. The developed scheme was based on the physical attributes of the water in soil capillary pores and the statistics of several global soil databases. The preliminary test showed that it captures part of soil macropore hydraulic features without sacrificing the estimation accuracy of hydraulic properties of water in soil matrix. The second study presents the development of an integrated land/ecosystem model by combining the advanced features of a biophysically based land model, the Community Land Model, and an ecosystem biochemical model. The results from tests of the integrated model at four forest sites showed that the model reasonably captures the seasonal and interannual dynamics of leaf area index and leaf nitrogen control on carbon assimilation across different environments. With being coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the integrated model showed a strong ability to simulate terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes together with heat and water fluxes. Its simulated land surface physical variables are reasonable in both geographic distribution and temporal variation with considering the interactive vegetation parameters.

Reliable prediction of climate change and its impact on and feedbacks from terrestrial carbon cycles requires realistic representation of physiological and ecological processes in coupled climate-carbon models. This is hampered by various deficiencies in model structures and parameters. The goal of my study is to improve model realism by incorporating latest advances of fundamental eco-physiological processes and further to use such improved models to investigate climate-carbon interactions at regional to global scales. I focus on the CO₂ diffusion within leaves (a key plant physiological process) and large-scale disturbances (a fundamental ecological process) as extremely important but not yet in current models. The CO₂ diffusion within plant leaves is characterized by mesophyll conductance (g[subscript m]), which strongly influences photosynthesis. I developed a g[subscript m] model by synthesizing new advances in plant-physiological studies and incorporated this model into the Community Land Model (CLM), a state-of-art climate-carbon model. I updated associated photosynthetic parameters based on a large dataset of leaf gas exchange measurements. Major findings are: (1) omission of g[subscript m] underestimates the maximum carboxylation rate and distorts its relationships with other parameters, leading to an incomplete understanding of leaf-level photosynthesis machinery; (2) proper representation of g[subscript m] is necessary for climate-carbon models to realistically predict carbon fluxes and their responsiveness to CO₂ fertilization; (3) fine tuning of parameters may compensate for model structural errors in contemporary simulations but introduce large biases in future predictions. Further, I have corrected a numerical deficiency of CLM in its calculation of carbon/water fluxes, which otherwise can bias model simulations. Large-scale disturbances of terrestrial ecosystems strongly affect their carbon sink strength. To provide insights for modeling these processes, I used satellite products to examine the temporal-spatial patterns of greenness after a massive ice storm. I found that the greenness of impacted vegetation recovered rapidly, especially in lightly and severely impacted regions. The slowest rebound occurred over moderately impacted areas. This nonlinear pattern was caused by an integrated effect of natural regrowth and human interventions. My results demonstrate mechanisms by which terrestrial carbon sinks could be significantly affected and help determine how these sinks will behave and so affect future climate. / text

Atmospheric inversion has recently become an important tool in estimating CO2 sinks and sources albeit that the existing inversion results are often uncertain and differ considerably in terms of the spatiotemporal variations of the inverted carbon flux. More measurements combined with terrestrial ecosystem information are expected to improve the estimates of global surface carbon fluxes which are used to understand the relationships between variabilities of the terrestrial carbon cycle and anomalies of climatic factors. Inversions using more observations have often been hampered by the intense diurnal variations of CO2 concentrations at continental sites. Diurnal variations of the surface flux are included with atmospheric boundary dynamics in order to improve the atmospheric inversion accuracy. Modeling experiments conducted in this study show that inverse estimates of the carbon flux are more sensitive to the variation of the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics than to the diurnal variation in the surface flux. It is however generally better to consider both diurnal variations in the inversion than to consider only either of them. Forest carbon dynamics is closely related to stand age. This useful terrestrial ecosystem information has been used as an additional constraint to the atmospheric inversion. The inverse estimates with this constraint over North America exhibit an improved correlation with carbon sink estimates derived from eddy-covariance measurements and remotely-sensed data, indicating that the use of age information can improve the accuracy of atmospheric inversions. Terrestrial carbon uptake is found mainly in northern land, and a strong flux density is revealed in southeastern North America in an improved multi-year inversion from 2002 to 2007. The global interannual variability of the flux is dominated by terrestrial ecosystems. The interannual variabilities of regional terrestrial carbon cycles could be mostly explained by monthly anomalies of climatic conditions or short-time extreme meteorological events. Monthly anomalies of the inverted fluxes have been further analyzed against the monthly anomalies of temperature and precipitation to quantitatively assess the responses of the global terrestrial carbon cycle to climatic variabilities and to determine the dominant mechanisms controlling the variations of terrestrial carbon exchange.

Atmospheric inversion has recently become an important tool in estimating CO2 sinks and sources albeit that the existing inversion results are often uncertain and differ considerably in terms of the spatiotemporal variations of the inverted carbon flux. More measurements combined with terrestrial ecosystem information are expected to improve the estimates of global surface carbon fluxes which are used to understand the relationships between variabilities of the terrestrial carbon cycle and anomalies of climatic factors. Inversions using more observations have often been hampered by the intense diurnal variations of CO2 concentrations at continental sites. Diurnal variations of the surface flux are included with atmospheric boundary dynamics in order to improve the atmospheric inversion accuracy. Modeling experiments conducted in this study show that inverse estimates of the carbon flux are more sensitive to the variation of the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics than to the diurnal variation in the surface flux. It is however generally better to consider both diurnal variations in the inversion than to consider only either of them. Forest carbon dynamics is closely related to stand age. This useful terrestrial ecosystem information has been used as an additional constraint to the atmospheric inversion. The inverse estimates with this constraint over North America exhibit an improved correlation with carbon sink estimates derived from eddy-covariance measurements and remotely-sensed data, indicating that the use of age information can improve the accuracy of atmospheric inversions. Terrestrial carbon uptake is found mainly in northern land, and a strong flux density is revealed in southeastern North America in an improved multi-year inversion from 2002 to 2007. The global interannual variability of the flux is dominated by terrestrial ecosystems. The interannual variabilities of regional terrestrial carbon cycles could be mostly explained by monthly anomalies of climatic conditions or short-time extreme meteorological events. Monthly anomalies of the inverted fluxes have been further analyzed against the monthly anomalies of temperature and precipitation to quantitatively assess the responses of the global terrestrial carbon cycle to climatic variabilities and to determine the dominant mechanisms controlling the variations of terrestrial carbon exchange.

Terrestrial carbon-isotope stratigraphy has proven a promising tool for stratigraphic correlation between the different exchangeable carbon-isotope reservoirs, as well as a powerful approach to reconstructing the evolution of δ13C of atmospheric CO2, which is closely associated with the evolution of palaeoenvironment and palaeoclimate. However, the limited understanding of pitfalls in specific application potentially restricts the method’s utility for stratigraphic correlation and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. This thesis takes advantage of three case studies at two vital geological intervals which are both characterized by the significant carbon-isotope perturbation in the exchangeable reservoirs, to explore the nature of terrestrial carbon-isotope stratigraphy. Two of the case studies focus on the late Early to Middle Miocene, the period of the so called Monterey Event that is marked by remarkable positive carbon-isotope excursions in benthic and pelagic marine carbonate records. There are few terrestrial carbon-isotope records for the Monterey Event. In the present study, shallow marine sediments were collected from boreholes in the New Jersey margin, USA (IODP, Expedition 313) and North Sea Basin, Denmark. Phytoclasts are concentrated from palynological residues as the basis for a terrestrial carbon-isotope stratigraphy from the two locations. The carbon-isotope curves obtained can be correlated in detail locally, and correlated crudely on a global scale. However, there are no definite positive carbon-isotope excursions observed in the terrestrial isotopic stratigraphic records through the biostratigraphically determined Langhian interval equivalent to the Monterey Event. The reasons for the absence of relatively positive carbon-isotope excursions in terrestrial carbon-isotope stratigraphy might be caused by the reworking deposits of woody phytoclasts from older strata or some other process related to reworking. Another case study centres on the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and Early Jurassic fluvial and lacustrine succession in the Kuqa section, Tarim Basin, NW China. Macrofossil wood samples were collected to generate the terrestrial carbon-isotope stratigraphy. On the basis of the biostratigraphy and potential Stage/Age (sub-) boundaries implied by biological overturns, the terrestrial carbon-isotope stratigraphy in the Kuqa section can be well correlated with both terrestrial and marine carbon-isotope stratigraphic records from UK through the Early Jurassic. For the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, more precise correlation was made globally and an exact the position of Triassic-Jurassic boundary is proposed in the Kuqa section. In light of the biostratigraphy and the carbon-isotope stratigraphy obtained in the present study, an updated age assignment of the lithostratigraphic units is proposed to Age/Stage level in the Early Jurassic across the Northern Tarim Basin. The carbon-isotope stratigraphy thus significantly improves the terrestrial stratigraphic resolution. Terrestrial carbon-isotope stratigraphy is a powerful tool for global stratigraphic correlation and unifies stratigraphic correlation over marine and non-marine strata in cases when potential biasing factors are excluded.

Climate variability and the carbon cycle (C-cycle) are tied together in complex feedback loops and due to these complexities there are still knowledge-gaps of this coupling. However, to make accurate predictions of future climate, profound understanding of the C-cycle and climate variability is essential. To gain more knowledge of climate variability, the study aims to identify recurring spatial patterns of the variability of precipitation anomalies over Scandinavia during spring and summer respectively between 1981 to 2014. These patterns will be related to the C-cycle through changes in summer vegetation greenness, measured as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Finally, the correlation between the patterns of precipitation variability in summer and the teleconnection patterns over the North Atlantic will be investigated. The precipitation data was obtained from ERA5 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the patterns of variability were found through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOFs of the spring and the summer precipitation anomalies together explained 73.5 % and 65.5 % of the variance respectively. The patterns of precipitation variability bore apparent similarities when comparing the spring and summer patterns and the Scandes were identified to be important for the precipitation variability in Scandinavia during both seasons. Anomalous events of the spring EOFs indicated that spring precipitation variability had little impact on anomalies of summer NDVI. Contradictory, summer precipitation variability seemed to impact anomalies of summer NDVI in central- and northeastern Scandinavia, thus indicating that summer precipitation variability modulates some of the terrestrial C-cycle in these regions. Correlations were found between a large part of the summer precipitation variability and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic pattern. Hence, there is a possibility these teleconnections have some impact, through the summer precipitation variability, on the terrestrial C-cycle. / Förändringar och variation i klimatet är sammankopplade med kolcykeln genom komplexa återkopplingsmekanismer. På grund av denna komplexitet är kunskapen om kopplingen mellan klimatvariation och kolcykeln fortfarande bristande, men för att möjliggöra precisa prognoser om framtida klimat är det viktigt att ha kunskap om denna koppling. För att få mer kunskap om klimatvariation syftar därför denna studie till att identifiera återkommande strukturer av nederbördsvariation över Skandinavien under vår respektive sommar från 1981 till 2014. Dessa relateras till förändringar i sommarväxtlighetens grönhet, uppmätt som skillnaden i normaliserat vegetationsindex (NDVI). Även korrelationen mellan sommarstrukturerna av nederbördsvariationen och storskaliga atmosfäriska svängningar, s.k. "teleconnections", över Nordatlanten undersöks. Nederbördsdatan erhölls från ERA5 analysdata från Europacentret för Medellånga Väderprognoser och strukturer av nederbördsvariationen identifierades genom empirisk ortogonal funktionsanalys (EOF) av nederbördsavvikelser. De tre första EOF av vår- respektive sommarnederbördsavvikelser förklarade tillsammans 73,5 % respektive 65,5 % av nederbördsvariationen. Strukturerna av nederbördsvariation under vår respektive sommar uppvisade tydliga likheter sinsemellan. Dessutom identifierades Skanderna vara av stor vikt för nederbördsvariationen i Skandinavien under båda årstider. Avvikande år av nederbördsvariation under våren indikerade att sagda nederbördsvariation haft liten påverkan på NDVI-avvikelser under sommaren. Emellertid verkade nederbördsvariationen under sommaren påverkat NDVI-avvikelser under sommaren i centrala och nordöstra Skandinavien. Detta indikerar att nederbördsvariationen under sommaren till viss del styr den terrestra kolcykeln i dessa regioner. För nederbördsvariationen under sommaren fanns korrelation mellan både Nordatlantiska sommaroscillationen och Östatlantiska svängningen. Det finns således en möjlighet att dessa "teleconnections" har en viss påverkan på den terrestra kolcykeln genom nederbördsvariationen under sommaren.

Soils contain a large amount of carbon (C) that is a critical regulator of the global C budget. Already small changes in the processes governing soil C cycling have the potential to release considerable amounts of CO2, a greenhouse gas (GHG), adding additional radiative forcing to the atmosphere and hence to changing climate. Increased temperatures will probably create a feedback, causing soils to release more GHGs. Furthermore changes in soil C balance impact soil fertility and soil quality, potentially degrading soils and reducing soils function as important resource. Consequently the assessment of soil C dynamics under present, recent past and future environmental conditions is not only of scientific interest and requires an integrated consideration of main factors and processes governing soil C dynamics. To perform this assessment an eco-hydrological modelling tool was used and extended by a process-based description of coupled soil carbon and nitrogen turnover. The extended model aims at delivering sound information on soil C storage changes beside changes in water quality, quantity and vegetation growth under global change impacts in meso- to macro-scale river basins, exemplary demonstrated for a Central European river basin (the Elbe). As a result this study: ▪ Provides information on joint effects of land-use (land cover and land management) and climate changes on croplands soil C balance in the Elbe river basin (Central Europe) presently and in the future. ▪ Evaluates which processes, and at what level of process detail, have to be considered to perform an integrated simulation of soil C dynamics at the meso- to macro-scale and demonstrates the model’s capability to simulate these processes compared to observations. ▪ Proposes a process description relating soil C pools and turnover properties to readily measurable quantities. This reduces the number of model parameters, enhances the comparability of model results to observations, and delivers same performance simulating long-term soil C dynamics as other models. ▪ Presents an extensive assessment of the parameter and input data uncertainty and their importance both temporally and spatially on modelling soil C dynamics. For the basin scale assessments it is estimated that croplands in the Elbe basin currently act as a net source of carbon (net annual C flux of 11 g C m-2 yr-1, 1.57 106 tons CO2 yr-1 entire croplands on average). Although this highly depends on the amount of harvest by-products remaining on the field. Future anticipated climate change and observed climate change in the basin already accelerates soil C loss and increases source strengths (additional 3.2 g C m-2 yr-1, 0.48 106 tons CO2 yr-1 entire croplands). But anticipated changes of agro-economic conditions, translating to altered crop share distributions, display stronger effects on soil C storage than climate change. Depending on future use of land expected to fall out of agricultural use in the future (~ 30 % of croplands area as “surplus” land), the basin either considerably looses soil C and the net annual C flux to the atmosphere increases (surplus used as black fallow) or the basin converts to a net sink of C (sequestering 0.44 106 tons CO2 yr-1 under extensified use as ley-arable) or reacts with decrease in source strength when using bioenergy crops. Bioenergy crops additionally offer a considerable potential for fossil fuel substitution (~37 PJ, 1015 J per year), whereas the basin wide use of harvest by-products for energy generation has to be seen critically although offering an annual energy potential of approximately 125 PJ. Harvest by-products play a central role in soil C reproduction and a percentage between 50 and 80 % should remain on the fields in order to maintain soil quality and fertility. The established modelling tool allows quantifying climate, land use and major land management impacts on soil C balance. New is that the SOM turnover description is embedded in an eco-hydrological river basin model, allowing an integrated consideration of water quantity, water quality, vegetation growth, agricultural productivity and soil carbon changes under different environmental conditions. The methodology and assessment presented here demonstrates the potential for integrated assessment of soil C dynamics alongside with other ecosystem services under global change impacts and provides information on the potentials of soils for climate change mitigation (soil C sequestration) and on their soil fertility status. / Böden speichern große Mengen Kohlenstoff (C) und beeinflussen wesentlich den globalen C Haushalt. Schon geringe Änderungen der Steuergrößen des Bodenkohlenstoffs können dazu führen, dass beträchtliche Mengen CO2, ein Treibhausgas, in die Atmosphäre gelangen und zur globalen Erwärmung und dem Klimawandel beitragen. Der globale Temperaturanstieg verursacht dabei höchstwahrscheinlich eine Rückwirkung auf den Bodenkohlenstoffhaushalt mit einem einhergehenden erhöhten CO2 Fluss der Böden in die Atmosphäre. Weiterhin wirken sich Änderungen im Bodenkohlenstoffhaushalt auf die Bodenfruchtbarkeit und Bodenqualität aus, wobei eine Minderung der Bodenkohlenstoffvorräte wichtige Funtionen des Bodens beeinträchtigt und folglich den Boden als wichtige Ressource nachhaltig beinflusst. Demzufolge ist die Quantifizierung der Bodenkohlenstoffdynamik unter heutigen und zukünftigen Bedingungen von hohem Interesse und erfordert eine integrierte Betrachtung der wesentlichen Faktoren und Prozesse. Zur Quantifizierung wurde ein ökohydrologisches Flusseinzugsgebietsmodell erweitert. Ziel des erweiterten Modells ist es fundierte Informationen zu Veränderungen des Bodenkohlenstoffhaushaltes, neben Veränderungen der Wasserqualität, der Wasserverfügbarkeit und des Vegetationswachstums unter Globalem Wandel in meso- bis makroskaligen Flusseinzugsgebieten bereitzustellen. Dies wird am Beispiel eines zentraleuropäischen Flusseinzugsgebietes (der Elbe) demonstriert. Zusammenfassend ergibt diese Arbeit: ▪ eine Quantifizierung der heutigen und zukünftigen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels sowie von Änderungen der Landnutzung (Bodenbedeckung und Bodenbearbeitung) auf den Bodenkohlenstoffhaushalt agrarisch genutzter Räume im Einzugsgebiet der Elbe. ▪ eine Beurteilung welche Prozesse, und zu welchem Prozessdetail, zur integrierten Simulation der Bodenkohlenstoffdynamik in der meso- bis makroskala zu berücksichtigen sind. Weiterhin wird die Eignung der Modellerweiterung zur Simulation dieser Prozesse unter der Zuhilfenahme von Messwerten dargelegt. ▪ darauf begründet wird eine Prozessbeschreibung vorgeschlagen die die Eigenschaften der Bodenkohlenstoffspeicher und deren Umsetzungsrate mit in der betrachteten Skala zur Verfügung stehenden Messdaten und Geoinformationen verbindet. Die vorgeschlagene Prozessbeschreibung kann als robust hinsichtlich der Parametrisierung angesehen werden, da sie mit vergleichsweise wenigen Modelparametern eine ähnliche Güte wie andere Bodenkohlenstoffmodelle ergibt. ▪ eine umfassende Betrachtung der Modell- und Eingangsdatenunsicherheiten von Modellergebnissen in ihrer räumlichen und zeitlichen Ausprägung. Das in dieser Arbeit vorgestellte Modellsystem erlaubt eine Quantifizierung der Auswirkungen des Klima- und Landnutzungswandels auf den Bodenkohlenstoffhaushalt. Neu dabei ist, dass neben Auswirkungen auf den Bodenkohlenstoffhaushalt auch Auswirkungen auf Wasserverfügbarkeit, Wasserqualität, Vegetationswachstum und landwirtschaftlicher Produktivität erfasst werden können. Die im Rahmen dieser Arbeit dargelegten Ergebnisse erlauben eine integrierte Betrachtung der Auswirkungen des Globalen Wandels auf wichtige Ökosystemfunktionen in meso- bis makro-skaligen Flusseinzugsgebieten. Weiterhin können hier gewonnene Informationen zur Potentialabschätzung der Böden zur Linderung des Klimawandels (durch C Festlegung) und zum Erhalt ihrer Fruchtbarkeit genutzt werden.

<p>At present, carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems slows the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and thereby reduces the impact of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions on the climate system. Changes in climate and land use affect terrestrial biosphere structure and functioning at present, and will likely impact on the terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades - potentially providing a positive feedback to the climate system due to soil carbon releases under a warmer climate. Quantifying changes, and the associated uncertainties, in regional terrestrial carbon budgets resulting from these effects is relevant for the scientific understanding of the Earth system and for long-term climate mitigation strategies.</p> <p>A model describing the relevant processes that govern the terrestrial carbon cycle is a necessary tool to project regional carbon budgets into the future. This study (1) provides an extensive evaluation of the parameter-based uncertainty in model results of a leading terrestrial biosphere model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM), against a range of observations and under climate change, thereby complementing existing studies on other aspects of model uncertainty; (2) evaluates different hypotheses to explain the age-related decline in forest growth, both from theoretical and experimental evidence, and introduces the most promising hypothesis into the model; (3) demonstrates how forest statistics can be successfully integrated with process-based modelling to provide long-term constraints on regional-scale forest carbon budget estimates for a European forest case-study; and (4) elucidates the combined effects of land-use and climate changes on the present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance over Europe for four illustrative scenarios - implemented by four general circulation models - using a comprehensive description of different land-use types within the framework of LPJ-DGVM.</p> <p>This study presents a way to assess and reduce uncertainty in process-based terrestrial carbon estimates on a regional scale. The results of this study demonstrate that simulated present-day land-atmosphere carbon fluxes are relatively well constrained, despite considerable uncertainty in modelled net primary production. Process-based terrestrial modelling and forest statistics are successfully combined to improve model-based estimates of vegetation carbon stocks and their change over time. Application of the advanced model for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with stand age compare favourably with forest inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Driven by historic changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, forest area and wood demand between 1948 and 2000, the model predicts European-scale, present-day age structure of forests, ratio of biomass removals to increment, and vegetation carbon sequestration rates that are consistent with inventory-based estimates. Alternative scenarios of climate and land-use change in the 21^st century suggest carbon sequestration in the European terrestrial biosphere during the coming decades will likely be on magnitudes relevant to climate mitigation strategies. However, the uptake rates are small in comparison to the European emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and will likely decline towards the end of the century. Uncertainty in climate change projections is a key driver for uncertainty in simulated land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and needs to be accounted for in mitigation studies of the terrestrial biosphere.</p> / <p>Kohlenstoffspeicherung in terrestrischen Ökosystemen reduziert derzeit die Wirkung anthropogener CO₂-Emissionen auf das Klimasystem, indem sie die Wachstumsrate der atmosphärischer CO₂-Konzentration verlangsamt. Die heutige terrestrische Kohlenstoffbilanz wird wesentlich von Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen beeinflusst. Diese Einflussfaktoren werden sich auch in den kommenden Dekaden auf die terrestrische Biosphäre auswirken, und dabei möglicherweise zu einer positiven Rückkopplung zwischen Biosphäre und Klimasystem aufgrund von starken Bodenkohlenstoffverlusten in einem wärmeren Klima führen. Quantitative Abschätzungen der Wirkung dieser Einflussfaktoren - sowie der mit ihnen verbundenen Unsicherheit - auf die terrestrische Kohlenstoffbilanz sind daher sowohl für das Verständnis des Erdsystems, als auch für eine langfristig angelegte Klimaschutzpolitik relevant.</p> <p>Um regionale Kohlenstoffbilanzen in die Zukunft zu projizieren, sind Modelle erforderlich, die die wesentlichen Prozesse des terrestrischen Kohlenstoffkreislaufes beschreiben. Die vorliegende Arbeit (1) analysiert die parameterbasierte Unsicherheit in Modellergebnissen eines der führenden globalen terrestrischen Ökosystemmodelle (LPJ-DGVM) im Vergleich mit unterschiedlichen ökosystemaren Messgrößen, sowie unter Klimawandelprojektionen, und erweitert damit bereits vorliegende Studien zu anderen Aspekten der Modelunsicherheit; (2) diskutiert unter theoretischen und experimentellen Aspekten verschiedene Hypothesen über die altersbedingte Abnahme des Waldwachstums, und implementiert die vielversprechenste Hypothese in das Model; (3) zeigt für eine europäische Fallstudie, wie Waldbestandsstatistiken erfolgreich für eine verbesserte Abschätzung von regionalen Kohlenstoffbilanzen in Wäldern durch prozessbasierten Modelle angewandt werden können; (4) untersucht die Auswirkung möglicher zukünftiger Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen auf die europäische Kohlenstoffbilanz anhand von vier verschiedenen illustrativen Szenarien, jeweils unter Berücksichtigung von Klimawandelprojektionen vier verschiedener Klimamodelle. Eine erweiterte Version von LPJ-DGVM findet hierfür Anwendung, die eine umfassende Beschreibung der Hauptlandnutzungstypen beinhaltet. </p> <p>Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt einen Ansatz vor, um Unsicherheiten in der prozessbasierten Abschätzung von terrestrischen Kohlenstoffbilanzen auf regionaler Skala zu untersuchen und zu reduzieren. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass der Nettokohlenstoffaustausch zwischen terrestrischer Biosphäre und Atmosphäre unter heutigen klimatischen Bedingungen relativ sicher abgeschätzt werden kann, obwohl erhebliche Unsicherheit über die modelbasierte terrestrische Nettoprimärproduktion existiert. Prozessbasierte Modellierung und Waldbestandsstatistiken wurden erfolgreich kombiniert, um verbesserte Abschätzungen von regionalen Kohlenstoffvorräten und ihrer Änderung mit der Zeit zu ermöglichen. Die Anwendung des angepassten Modells in 77 europäischen Regionen zeigt, dass modellbasierte Abschätzungen des Biomasseaufwuchses in Wäldern weitgehend mit inventarbasierten Abschätzungen für verschiede Baumarten übereinstimmen. Unter Berücksichtigung von historischen Änderungen in Klima, atmosphärischem CO₂-Gehalt, Waldfläche und Holzernte (1948-2000) reproduziert das Model auf europäischer Ebene die heutigen, auf Bestandsstatistiken beruhenden, Abschätzungen von Waldaltersstruktur, das Verhältnis von Zuwachs und Entnahme von Biomasse, sowie die Speicherungsraten im Kohlenstoffspeicher der Vegetation. Alternative Szenarien von zukünftigen Landnutzungs- und Klimaänderungen legen nahe, dass die Kohlenstoffaufnahme der europäischen terrestrischen Biosphäre von relevanter Größenordnung für Klimaschutzstrategien sind. Die Speicherungsraten sind jedoch klein im Vergleich zu den absoluten europäischen CO₂-Emissionen, und nehmen zudem sehr wahrscheinlich gegen Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts ab. Unsicherheiten in Klimaprojektionen sind eine Hauptursache für die Unsicherheiten in den modellbasierten Abschätzungen des zukünftigen Nettokohlenstoffaustausches und müssen daher in Klimaschutzanalysen der terrestrischen Biosphäre berücksichtigt werden.</p>