本研究旨在瞭解少子化對教育環境與國民中學學校經營之影響、教育行政機關在政策面及實務面因應少子化之道、少子化下國民中學學校經營之因應策略及其重要性等方面。研究對象為臺北縣市教育行政機關人員及臺北縣市公立國民中學之校長、候用校長與教務主任為訪談及問卷施測之對象。問卷發出277份，回收218份，問卷回收率為78.70%。資料分析採平均數與標準差等方法。 綜合問卷與訪談結果，本研究歸納幾點結論： 一、少子化對教育環境的影響包括對社會整體、學校環境、教師及家長等層面之影響。 二、教育行政機關因應之道，中央行政機關的政策面與實務面因應之道包括：(一)建立裁併校指標、(二)教師方面培養教師第二專長、增加輔導教師人力及規劃教師共聘機制、(三)學校層面降低班級人數提昇教學品質、編列教育補助預算、(四)推動教師及師培機構評鑑機制等層面；地方行政機關的政策面與實務面因應之道包括：(一)學校教師員額管控與聘任新進教師、(二)教師專業成長、(三)偏遠地區學校裁併與新設校之考量、(四)學校空間規劃與硬體之改善等層面。 三、少子化對國民中學學校經營之影響層面包括：(一)少子化對國民中學學校經營之衝擊、(二)少子化對國民中學學校經營之新契機、(三)少子化對國民中學教師帶來之改變。 四、少子化國民中學學校經營之因應策略及其重要性為：(一)建立品牌形象、(二)精進教師專業成長、(三)強化學校招生策略、(四)推動學校創新經營、(五)加強校本課程、(六)運用學校校園閒置空間等層面。 依據上述研究結果，針對中央及地方教育行政機關、對國民中學學校經營、對後續研究提出幾項具體建議，供教育行政機關及學校校長等相關政策規劃及學校經營上之參考。 / The object of this research is focused on exploring and understanding how a birth rate policy affects junior high school education, school management, administrative authorities for education policy and practice ;therefore ,responds the adaption to the changing environment,and concludes the implication and importance for school management strategy . This research was conducted under the questionnaire survey aiming at Taipei public and private authorities staffs , schools principals and its candidates , and academic affair supervisors with sampling size of 277 volunteers and withdrew 218 copies thereof effective, i.e. withdrawing rate 78.70%. Regarding the research tool includes mean and standard deviation analysis. According to the research analysis and discussion, it comes to the conclusions as following： 1.A birth rate policy influences on education environment including society, school, teacher and parent aspects. 2.As regards Central education authorities responding the policy and practice to the changing environment include. (1)establish school close down and consolidation indicators. (2)cultivate and train teachers with secondary specialty , enhance faculty counseling staffs and planning mechanism for co-selecting teachers. (3)scale down the number of a class student , promote education quality, and propose a education supplementary budgets. (4)promote teacher performance and appraisal implement mechanism ; and further,Local education authorities responding the policy and practice are (1)Control the number of faculty and new teachers recruitment. (2)Cultivate and promote teachers specialty. (3)Feasibility study on remote district schools close down or consolidation. (4)Improving the campus space and hardware facility . 3.A birth rate policy influences on junior high school management respects are: (1) Impacting on school administration and management. (2)Emerging incidentally new opportunity from those influences. (3)As far as junior high schools’ teachers are concerned, changing incidentally with those influences. 4.The said policy implication and importance for school management strategy including： (1)To establish brand image. (2)Cultivate and promote teachers specialty. (3)To strengthen the student enrollment strategy. (4)Creating an innovative school management strategy. (5)Upgrade and intensify the course contents and level. (6)To utilize the unused or idle space or facility. Finally, according to the research findings and conclusions, I propose some suggestions regarding practice applications and subsequent studies respectively to school principal and education authorities for implementing the related policy and management strategy.

“Taiwan's birth rate at world record low”, opening the newspapers in Taiwan, we often could see the similar titles once in a while, the total fertility rate is 1.03‰ in 2010 which means each woman only give birth to 1.03 child a life. The population is one of the key factors to form the country. The low birth rate phenomenon occurred not only in Taiwan, but also in many developed countries. Demographers, governmental and international institutions have feared that lowest-low fertility might prove to be persistent in both developed and developing countries. Demographers in the mid-1990s could not have predicted that fertility would fall so rapidly to such levels. Not only did fertility but also other indicators related to fertility and the family adjusted suddenly and we are approaching the recent fertility decline from a broader perspective that considers the traditional and cultural legacies which affect the everyday life of ordinary citizens. The article would take the experience of OECD countries and discuss the phenomenon of the fertility measures and observe the plausible approaches of education authorities deal with low birth rate in developed countries and Taiwan.

本研究旨在探討少子化趨勢對我國國民教育師資供需之影響與相關對策。首先係從我國學齡人口結構現況及趨勢作切入，進而探究少子化趨勢對師資培育政策之影響，並分析國民教育師資供需之現況與趨勢，最後本研究藉以百分比統計、集群分析、時間序列分析、灰色預測及模糊德菲法等統計方法，分析國民教育階段師資供需之現況、預測及策略方案之評估，進而提出相關因應對策，提供政策設計者之決策參考，以期透過適當的調節與管控機制，俾利國民教育師資市場的供需均衡。 本研究依研究目的所獲得之主要研究結論有以下幾點： 一、國民教育學齡學生數之發展趨勢，已顯見受到少子化趨勢之衝擊。惟各縣市所反映之衝擊情形不同，其中以高雄市、臺北縣、基隆市、臺中市、嘉義市及臺南市等六縣市之衝擊情形最大。 二、各縣市國民小學師資人力現況受少子化趨勢之影響不一，尤其臺北市、高雄市、臺北縣、苗栗縣、臺中縣、彰化縣、南投縣、嘉義縣、 臺南縣、高雄縣、屏東縣、花蓮縣、基隆市與臺南市等縣市已呈現師資人力過剩飽和之現況。 三、各縣市國民中學師資人力現況，尚未因學齡人口數減少受明顯之衝擊，各縣市師資人力的波動情形仍屬混沌，惟其中以臺北市、彰化縣、南投縣、雲林縣、嘉義縣、屏東縣與臺南縣等屬師資人力遞減之地區。 四、以時間序列分析單變量ARIMA模式與灰色預測GM（1,1）模式進行國民教育教師人數預測之效果良好，尤其灰色預測方法平均準確率多達99％以上。 五、各縣市95-100學年度國民小學教師人數預估約減少5,703人，減少百分比為5.47％。除桃園縣、臺東縣及新竹市教師人數略有成長外，其餘各縣市教師人數皆明顯遞減，尤其南投縣、基隆市、臺北縣及屏東縣教師人數減少比率皆超過10％。 六、各縣市95-100學年度國民中學教師人數預估約增加118人，增加百分比為0.247％。其中，以臺東縣、新竹縣、嘉義市、桃園縣及澎湖縣教師人數屬穩定成長之縣市，惟雲林縣、嘉義縣、臺北市及屏東縣則屬教師人數大幅減少之縣市，其減少比率皆超過10％。 七、為期有效解決國民教育師資供需失衡之問題，於政策方案上，首要之務應先從「教師離退制度」及「教師員額編制」之體制面改革著手。 根據以上之研究結果，本研究提出以下建議，供教育行政機估決策與未來研究時之參考： 一、對教育行政機關的建議 （一）各縣市政府教育局應確實掌握未來各學年度學齡學生數之變化，並正視超額留用教師人數將逐年增加之趨勢，妥適研擬與修訂相關人事法規與制度。 （二）加強不適任教師之督導淘汰機制，推動教師專業發展評鑑，符應「專業本位、保優汰劣」之要求。 （三）健全師資培育機構組織，持續評估調節師資供需數量，落實「適量優質儲備」之措施。 （四）適當調整國民中小學教師員額編制，達成「小班小校」之理念。 （五）師資估需預測宜進行縱貫性長期研究，並委由專責單位進行全國各級學校師資推估工作。 二、對後續研究的建議 （一）在研究主題方面，可探討少子化趨勢所造成學校整併、閒置教室空間規劃、學生單位成本改變及學校行銷因應策略等議題。 （二）在研究範圍方面，可採單一縣市為研究範圍，且持續在不同的時間進行預測與評估，在研究結果之推論上將更符合現況之需求。 （三）在研究對象方面，未來之研究可針對高中職與大專校院之相對衝擊與因應策略進行研究，將使研究結果更為廣泛推論。 （四）在研究方法方面，在專家意見整合方面可改用焦點團體法或腦力激盪法；在意見調查方面可兼採質化方法。 （五）在統計方法方面，在師資供需預測方面可採以時間數列分析、模糊時間數列分析、類神經網路、多變量模糊時間數列等統計方法，藉以比較預測結果之統計差異。 / The low birth rate--the influence and strategy of the supply and demand of teacher in compulsory education Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyze the policy of teacher education by the point view of population composition and probe into the state of teacher supply and demand, with its trend of development. The article analyze by percentage, cluster analysis, time series analysis, grey forecasting, and fuzzy Delphi method to realize the current situation, forecast and solving strategies of teacher supply and demand bring related solving strategies. Marjor findings include the following: 1.The trend of students in compulsory education was to affect by the low birth rate. Every county in the low birth rate was different, especially the most influence were Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Keelung city, Taichung city, Chiayi city, and Tainan city. 2.The teacher supply and demand of different counties in elementary education were not the same, especially the most saturated membership of teachers were Taipei city, Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Miaoli county, Taichung county, Changhua county, Nantou county, Chiayi county, Tainan county, Kaohsiung county, Pingtung county, Hualien county, Keelung city, and Tainan city. 3. The teacher supply and demand of different counties in middle education were disorderly by the low birth rate influence, but these counties’ teachers development trend were cut down, including Taipei city, Chiayi county, Nantou county, Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Pingtung county, and Tainan county. 4.The ARIMA model and grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting the supply and demand of teacher were good methods, especially the grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting degree of accuracy exceeds 99 percent. 5.Elementary education is forecasted reducing rough 5,703 teachers in 95-100 session. Besides Taoyuan county, Taitung county, and Hsinchu city have growth of teachers, the others’ teachers have obvious reducing, especially Nantou county, Keelung city, Taipei county, and Penghu county reduce teachers exceeding 10 percent. 6.The earlier stage of Middle education is forecasted increase rough 118 teachers in 95-100 session. Among countries belong to the growth of teachers are Taitung county, Hsinchu county, Chiayi city, Taoyuan county, and Penghu county. However, Among countries belong to the reducing of teachers are Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Taipei city, and Pingtung county, which reducing percentage over 10 percent. 7. To solving the imbalance of teacher supply and demand must be started in teachers’ retirement and evaluation reform, and teacher membership of organization reform. Based on the finding, several recommendations were made for the superior authorities, for the governments of education administration as well as for further research.

少子化是目前台灣面臨的一大危機，從歷史脈絡來看，台灣屬於標準的移民社會，然而，因早年戒嚴等政治因素使我國對於入出境人流管制相當嚴格，同時亦不重視移民政策，直至近年來外籍配偶及大陸配偶人數大量增加，政府單位逐漸注意此一新興社會現象。 同時，台灣與新加坡皆為亞洲四小龍成員，在人口結構來講，同屬以華人為主體的多元族群國家，兩者皆面臨全球化衝擊，以及面臨國土資源不足、生育率逐年降低、人口老化等社會與人口結構改變的隱憂。而新加坡對移民政策的重視則遠超過我國，其相關法令的制定、多元的教育、豐富的獎勵刺激移民與生育都是值得我們所學習的。 回顧其發展過程，新加坡的移民政策與法令也讓社會產生程度不一的反彈，這些優缺利弊都是讓我國借鑒的範例，藉他山之石，檢視我國移民法令的侷限，為了有效刺激外來人口移入與降低不同文化產生的衝突，新加坡經驗是值得參考的對象。 / Low birth rate is one of the major challenges faced by Taiwanese government nowadays. Taiwan can be categorized as a typical immigrant society from the view of history. However, the immigration control was very strict during the early days due to political issues and the implementation of martial laws. The immigration policies have been ignored for long until the population of foreign and mainland spouse rose tremendously hence gradually caught the attention of Taiwanese government. Taiwan and Singapore are both viewed as the members of Four Asian Tigers. Both islandsare composed by multi-racial population and with Chinese as majority. Meanwhile, both nations face the challenges such as impact of globalization, relatively insufficient domestic resources, low birth rate, and aging population. Singapore government takes immigration policies more seriously than Taiwan, the regulations of laws, educational diversity, and abundant rewards for encouraging immigration and birth rate of Singapore are worth to learn from. Singapore’s immigration policies and regulations also aroused backlash from the public. The pros and cons of their policies should also be taken into considerations while making the proper policies for Taiwan. The experience of Singapore would benefit on the spurring of immigration to Taiwan and easing the conflicts result from cultural differences.