本研究旨在探討少子化趨勢對我國新北市國民中學教師供需之影響與相關對策。 首先係從我國學齡人口結構現況及趨勢作切入，進而縮小範圍至新北市為對象，探究少子化趨勢對新北市國民中學師資現況之影響，並分析國民中學教師供需之現況與未來趨勢。最後本研究藉以百分比統計、時間序列分析、灰色預測法等統計方法，分析新北市國民中學教師資供需之現況、預測及策略方案之評估，進而提出相關因應對策，提供主管教育機關做相關教育政策時之參考。 本研究依研究目的所獲得之主要研究結論有以下幾點： 一、全國以及新北市國民中學103 學年至 107 學年國中新生預估減少率都維持3%至5%之降幅。新北市近年，總人口數有微幅增加的情形。但國中學生人數仍逐年減少，整體比率與全國大致相當。 二、新北市國民中學教師人力之現況，為預期少子化來臨造成教師超額，已作提早之準備，做教師員額管。因此也造成國中教育現場，兼代課教師比率偏高的問題，影響教學品質。 三、預測未來新北市國民中學教師資供需量， 本研究用文件分析方式及灰預測GM(1,1)模式推估，結果雖略有差異，就大方向看，新北市教師供給量而言，近期內均呈逐年下降趨勢，而且會維持一段時間，趨勢可供師培機構以及教育主管機關做為參考 四、因應少子化新北市國民中學師資供需因應策略，政府可視財政政狀況就以下可行性方案：(一)調降班級人數方案，(二)調高每班級教師員額編制數，(三) 降低員額控管比率。做為調整國民中學師資供需方案。 綜上結論，提出下列建議，以供教育行政機關及後續研究的參考： 一、對教育行政機關的建議： (一)、市政府教育局應確實掌握未來各學年度學齡學生數之變化，並正視因少子化衍生超額教師問題，妥適研擬與修訂相關人事法規與制度。(二)審慎評估調節國民中學師資供需數量。(三)研擬再調整國民中學教師員額編制。(四)師資供需預測，宜做長期性研究，應委由專責單位進行全國及各縣市師資供需推估工作。 二、對後續研究的建議 (一)研究主題方面，可加以探討少子化趨勢所造成學校整併、學校退場機制、閒置教室空間規劃、教育資源規劃及學校行銷因應策略等議題。(二)研究範圍方面，日後從事相關研究者可採單一縣市為研究範圍外，針對各類型態縣市做分析比較，可以增加其結果的推廣性。俾利符應台灣各縣市於少子化趨勢下之差異性。(三)研究對象方面，未來之研究可擴大與延伸研究對象，針對高中職與大專校院之相對衝擊與因應策略進行研究，將使研究結果更為廣泛推論。(四)統計方法方面，建議未來從事相關研究者，可採以模糊時間數列分析或多變量模糊時間數列等統計方法預測教師供需量。 關鍵字：少子化、師資供需

本研究旨在瞭解少子化對教育環境與國民中學學校經營之影響、教育行政機關在政策面及實務面因應少子化之道、少子化下國民中學學校經營之因應策略及其重要性等方面。研究對象為臺北縣市教育行政機關人員及臺北縣市公立國民中學之校長、候用校長與教務主任為訪談及問卷施測之對象。問卷發出277份，回收218份，問卷回收率為78.70%。資料分析採平均數與標準差等方法。 綜合問卷與訪談結果，本研究歸納幾點結論： 一、少子化對教育環境的影響包括對社會整體、學校環境、教師及家長等層面之影響。 二、教育行政機關因應之道，中央行政機關的政策面與實務面因應之道包括：(一)建立裁併校指標、(二)教師方面培養教師第二專長、增加輔導教師人力及規劃教師共聘機制、(三)學校層面降低班級人數提昇教學品質、編列教育補助預算、(四)推動教師及師培機構評鑑機制等層面；地方行政機關的政策面與實務面因應之道包括：(一)學校教師員額管控與聘任新進教師、(二)教師專業成長、(三)偏遠地區學校裁併與新設校之考量、(四)學校空間規劃與硬體之改善等層面。 三、少子化對國民中學學校經營之影響層面包括：(一)少子化對國民中學學校經營之衝擊、(二)少子化對國民中學學校經營之新契機、(三)少子化對國民中學教師帶來之改變。 四、少子化國民中學學校經營之因應策略及其重要性為：(一)建立品牌形象、(二)精進教師專業成長、(三)強化學校招生策略、(四)推動學校創新經營、(五)加強校本課程、(六)運用學校校園閒置空間等層面。 依據上述研究結果，針對中央及地方教育行政機關、對國民中學學校經營、對後續研究提出幾項具體建議，供教育行政機關及學校校長等相關政策規劃及學校經營上之參考。 / The object of this research is focused on exploring and understanding how a birth rate policy affects junior high school education, school management, administrative authorities for education policy and practice ;therefore ,responds the adaption to the changing environment,and concludes the implication and importance for school management strategy . This research was conducted under the questionnaire survey aiming at Taipei public and private authorities staffs , schools principals and its candidates , and academic affair supervisors with sampling size of 277 volunteers and withdrew 218 copies thereof effective, i.e. withdrawing rate 78.70%. Regarding the research tool includes mean and standard deviation analysis. According to the research analysis and discussion, it comes to the conclusions as following： 1.A birth rate policy influences on education environment including society, school, teacher and parent aspects. 2.As regards Central education authorities responding the policy and practice to the changing environment include. (1)establish school close down and consolidation indicators. (2)cultivate and train teachers with secondary specialty , enhance faculty counseling staffs and planning mechanism for co-selecting teachers. (3)scale down the number of a class student , promote education quality, and propose a education supplementary budgets. (4)promote teacher performance and appraisal implement mechanism ; and further,Local education authorities responding the policy and practice are (1)Control the number of faculty and new teachers recruitment. (2)Cultivate and promote teachers specialty. (3)Feasibility study on remote district schools close down or consolidation. (4)Improving the campus space and hardware facility . 3.A birth rate policy influences on junior high school management respects are: (1) Impacting on school administration and management. (2)Emerging incidentally new opportunity from those influences. (3)As far as junior high schools’ teachers are concerned, changing incidentally with those influences. 4.The said policy implication and importance for school management strategy including： (1)To establish brand image. (2)Cultivate and promote teachers specialty. (3)To strengthen the student enrollment strategy. (4)Creating an innovative school management strategy. (5)Upgrade and intensify the course contents and level. (6)To utilize the unused or idle space or facility. Finally, according to the research findings and conclusions, I propose some suggestions regarding practice applications and subsequent studies respectively to school principal and education authorities for implementing the related policy and management strategy.

根據內政部的數據顯示少子化、單人家戶已成為現代社會中的趨勢，而在這樣的社會趨勢底下，人們的價值觀和消費型態也逐漸發生改變。 台灣自1960年代實施的家庭計畫使得生育率開始下降，直到2010年甚至跌到只剩0.895（內政部2010），成為全球生育率最低的國家；不僅是少子化衝擊台灣的社會，單人家戶不斷攀高也是其中一項，從2001年其佔總戶數比例為24%，到2010年上升至28.7%，這再再顯示出台灣的現在和未來，將會有一群龐大的單身族群，這群人可能沒有兄弟姊妹，或是婚姻關係，這變化不單影響著個人的生命歷程，其消費模式都將產生劇烈轉變。 本研究針對此現象，以新竹地區三家星巴克的單身消費的顧客，以及內部員工為對象，探討關於一個人的消費型態。其研究發現長期一個人進入星巴克消費者的動機，不僅消費咖啡、環境，更是消費與夥伴之間的互動關係，而這種消費型態本文稱之為「寂寞消費」，此消費動機有別於過往購買物質性商品的模式，即商品的品質和價錢，其寂寞消費者的動機，更在乎場域之間彼此的「關係」，這群消費者多半來自於單身、親密關係較為缺乏的生活環境，以及喜愛與他人互動的性格，從這些現象可以得出，當未來人們趨於單身時，如何可以消費中同時獲得社會性滿足將會是新的商機。 / According to the statistics provided by the Interior ministry, the low-birth rate and single-family household rate have been a trend nowadays. Under such a circumstance, people’s values and consuming types are gradually changing. Since 1960, the birth rate has started to decrease resulting from the implement of Family Project(家庭計畫) in Taiwan. Till 2010, the birth rate had fallen to 0.895 (Interior ministry 2010), which is the lowest birth rate in the world. It is noted that not only the trend of fewer children(少子化) but the increasing of single-family household (單人家戶) strike Taiwan society. Specifically, the rate of single-family household in Taiwan keeps increasing from 24% to 28.7% in 2001 and 2010, respectively. This phenomenon implies that there has been and will be a large group of people having no brothers, sisters or marriage relation in Taiwan. Such changes in social structure will affect the life experience for each single person and significantly change people’s consuming types. In this thesis, in order to investigate the above-mentioned phenomenon, we took single consumers and staff of three STARBUCKS shops in Hsinchu as samples to explore the consuming type of a single person. It is found that a long-term consumer who is single consumes not merely coffee and environment but the interaction with staff in STARBUCKS. Such consuming type is called loneliness consuming in this study. Looking into the causes of loneliness consuming, the motivation behind such consuming is to establish relationship with people through places. It is observed that the lonely consumers in general like to interact with people but are single or from the environment with less close relationship. Accordingly, in the trend of more people being single, how to simultaneously satisfy the sociality in the behavior of consuming for consumers may yield new business opportunities.

因應台灣少子化所帶來的社會衝擊，學者提出減緩少子化應從強化幼兒教育開始，馬英九總統遂於2008年大選期間的教育政見提出了具體主張：「5歲免費入學，促進幼托合一」。此項看似利多或回應民意的措施，卻引起社會各界的反彈與質疑，並針對少子化下的幼兒教育政策提出了不同政策替選方案。 而政策工具的研究大致上可分為二個大類，其中之一為對於政策工具本身的關注，也就是說政策工具本身的特徵，包含類型、優缺點、適用情境等等；另外一部分則是關注於政策工具如何與為何被選擇出來，亦即外在於政策工具本身之環境因素，如何影響政策工具選擇的過程。由此，本研究目的在於從相關文獻與相關政策行動者的深度訪談中，瞭解台灣5歲幼兒教育政策所使用之政策工具，各個主要的政策工具在強制性、直接性、自動性、透明度、可接受性等五個重要政策工具分析面向所呈現之特徵；接著，具體的分析、探討98學年度5歲幼兒教育政策之內涵、政策發展的背景脈絡與政策行動者對此政策的觀感與建議；再者，由於政策工具最終的選擇往往不只是理性分析的結果，反而受到許多非客觀因素的影響，使得政府很難提供「最佳的」政策工具來解決問題，因此本研究從與關鍵政策行動者進行之前測訪談與初步資料蒐集過程當中，歸納出本研究個案主要影響政策工具選擇之可能因素，包含理念、行動者與環境脈絡；最後，對台灣相關政策的制定過程提出改革建議。然而，在本研究付梓之際，教育部公佈99學年度「5歲幼兒免學費教育計畫」，筆者在時間緊迫之際，亦將此計畫之實施內容概要的介紹說明。 研究結果發現主要歸納為三個部分：第一，政策工具理論可以提供每一個所使用之工具一個概略之框架，然而實際分析的過程中發現，真實世界中的政策並非如同工具分類那樣單純，因此若欲針對實務上的政策，提供具體建議，必須超越抽象的工具理論，就實際情形深入研究，俾得到解答。 第二，針對目前5歲幼兒教育政策，相關行動者提供了幾項主要建議，包含以改善幼教品質為優先；釐清此政策之定位，為一福利政策或教育體制的一環；欲減緩少子化應重新規劃國家之育兒環境而非單一政策可以達到之目標；政策制定過程缺乏整體一致規劃，人事異動頻繁使得理念無法貫徹，不利於台灣社會之永續發展。 最後，在影響政策工具選擇的因素最重要的即為「理念」，針對此5歲幼兒教育政策相關行動者之理念主要有兩大分歧，其中之一為以學者為首支持幼兒教育公共化、非營利化，另一則為以私立幼教業者為首主張維持現狀、並由政府加以補貼；而行動者的手段與策略亦為一項重要影響政策制定過程之因素，學者由於其專家的身分使其意見具有代表性，私立幼教業者因其所面臨之生存危機，傾向採用激烈方式表達其訴求，如動員遊行、政治教換等，而各重要決策者的偏好，如總統、行政院、教育部、財政部、主計處等，亦對政策之決定有相當影響力。台灣特殊的環境脈絡，包含以私立為主要幼兒教育供給者之歷史背景、日趨嚴重的少子化情形、激烈選戰所衍生選舉支票文化與目前台灣的財政困境，這些因素皆影響著5歲幼兒教育政策的制定過程。

近年來，臺灣因社會觀念、經濟狀況等大幅改變，生育率急速下降；人口結構失衡除了生育數應由政策面加以著手改善，更應藉此提升人口素質，此時負責人口素質第一線的國小教育體系越發重要。觀諸各層級學校之業務運作上，行政業務乃為校務工作成功與否的幕後推手，故學校行政人員的心理感受及行為舉措將間接影響國民小學教學品質，此議題值得深究。本研究旨在探究偏遠地區六班國小行政人員在少子化衝擊下，其工作滿足及生涯規劃之影響，藉由多個面向瞭解受訪者工作滿足程度，並從「個人特質」、「心理動機」及「價值觀」等三種取向分析受訪者生涯之規劃，俾作為後續研究者瞭解此一議題的參考。 本研究採質性研究之深度訪談法。研究對象總數為8人，均為現仍服務於偏遠地區國民小學之專任行政人員。經分析訪談資料後，所得研究發現綜述如下： 一、偏遠地區小型國小因編制員額有限，故絕大部份行政人員業務範圍皆為一般中大型學校行政人員多樣工作複合，易有不滿足感產生。 二、小校因人員有限，同ㄧ處室之行政人員，常常需共同協力完成業務，若其中有人怠惰或拖延，其他人員勢必承擔多出的業務，才能使事情順利完成，此時易有怨言產生。 三、學校之存廢裁併政策應該整體性作考量，並針對偏遠地區訂定例外規定，畢竟學校規模小不是原罪，是否廢校要視多方的指標來善加評估。 四、無論是對於教學工作的支援，使教師及學童無後顧之憂；或者建置完善教學環境，皆指明行政人員係維持校務持續運作的幕後功臣。 五、學生人數下降並非單純因學校教學不佳，而係各種因素交錯產生的結果，少子化僅是因素之一，另學校地理位置偏僻與否、學區內學校多寡、居民經濟狀況…等皆是原因。 本研究根據研究發現，提出以下建議： 一、部份公務機關對於學校行政人員觀感為：抗壓性不足、工作輕鬆、業務單純；為避免年輕有抱負之公務人員視國小行政人員為畏途，且強化國小教育行政力量，應暢通國小行政人員之升遷管道。 二、工友或校園警衛等可使用外包或派遣人力之職務，宜考慮委由民間辦理，不但可節省國小人事經費，亦可藉此導入民間經營效率。 三、偏遠地區國小之業務主管應對於複合工作較繁重之同仁多加溝通，適時紓解其累積之不滿足感；另應定期輪調，使工作不致分配不均。 四、偏遠地區國民小學應積極發展學校特色，結合社區資源，或營造生態校園…等，提升學校價值，可讓學童感受課本外的環境，豐富教育內涵。 關鍵字：少子化、工作滿足、生涯規劃 / In the recent years, the birth rate in Taiwan has been declining rapidly due to the concepts in the society and the economic statuses. The population structure has become unbalanced. Besides increasing the number of newborns, it is more important to improve the quality of the population. And the front line of improving the quality of the population is the elementary school education system. Whether affairs in schools of different levels can be done smoothly depends on administrative works. Thus, school administrative personnel’s mental perception and behaviors may indirectly influence teaching quality in elementary schools. It is worthy to further explore this issue. This study discussed the impact of declining birth rate on the job satisfaction and career planning of the administrative personnel from an elementary school with six classes in a remote area. From different views, this study explored the degrees of job satisfaction of the interviewees and analyzed their career plans from the aspects of “individual characteristics”, “psychological motivation”, and “values”. This study can be used as a reference for future studies regarding this issue. This study adopted a qualitative research method – in-depth interviewing. There were a total of 8 research subjects, who were full-time administrative personnel serving in an elementary school in a remote area. The data obtained from the interviews were analyzed and the findings of this study are listed below: 1. Because the number of personnel in a small elementary school in a remote area is limited, most of the administrative personnel have to cover more complex works than those working in middle or large sized schools. Therefore, it is very common that these personnel are dissatisfied. 2. Because the number of personnel in a small elementary school is limited, the administrative personnel who work in the same department often have to complete tasks together. In case one of them being lazy or delaying, others have to shoulder more burdens to make sure things go smoothly. This is when complaints started to surface. 3. The consideration for the policies of school abolishment must be broad and general. There should be additional regulations for remote areas. After all, being small is not a sin for schools. Whether a school should be abolished should depend on evaluations with indexes of different aspects. 4. The success of supporting teaching works, which relieve teachers’ and children’s worries, and constructing a perfect teaching environment should be attributed to administrative personnel who school affairs on track. 5. The decreasing number of students is a result of various factors and their interactions, not just bad teaching in schools. The factors include declining birth rate, geographic locations of schools, number of schools in the same school district, economic statuses of residents, etc. According to the research findings, this study came up with the following suggestions: 1. Some of the public sectors have the following impressions on school administrative personnel: unable to handle pressure, without heavy burdens, and with simple tasks. In order to avoid the situation that public servants with ambitions being unwilling to serve the posts of elementary school administrative personnel, it is important to improve administrative power of elementary school administration and ensure promotions of elementary school administrative personnel. 2. The works of fellow workers and campus guards can be outsourced or contracted to private companies. This way, personnel expenses of elementary schools can be reduced and efficiencies of private companies can be introduced to schools. 3. Superintendents in elementary schools in remote areas should help their colleagues with heavy tasks to communicate in order to release their dissatisfaction in time. Also, a rotation system should be implemented so that job arrangement can be fairer. 4. Elementary schools in remote areas should actively develop their own features and integrate them with community resources or build ecological campuses, in order to increase values of schools. This way, children can experience environments outside their text books. These experiences are very educational. Key words: declining birth rate, job satisfaction, career planning

由於台灣近年來生育率有逐年下滑的趨勢，形成少子化的現象，少子化代表著未來人口可能逐漸變少，對於社會結構、經濟發展等各方面都產生重大的影響，因此此一課題值得深究。 本研究以文獻分析及深度訪談法來進行，首先利用文獻資料來分析影響生育意願的相關原因，包括人口結構變遷對總體經濟的影響、生育行為的相關理論、現實經濟的因素、婦女勞動參與等，並歸納整理後作為深度訪談的基礎。深度訪問以大台北地區12位已婚婦女為對象，藉由深入訪談來了解箇中原因，歸結出台灣目前超低生育率的原因所在。 本研究結果發現，目前婦女生育意願低落的原因，主要是第一：傳統養兒防老的觀念式微，女性生育自主意識的崛起；第二：受教育延長、晚婚是催化高齡少子的趨勢之一；第三：現實經濟的考量下，加上養兒不易，導致多數家庭因此將生小孩的數量轉往養育的品質；第四：家庭分工的不平均也是降低婦女生育的意願的重要原因之一；最後現階段的托育政策與制度的不完善，加上生育補助有限，誘因不足之下，因而無法提高婦女的生育意願。 依據研究發現本研究建議(一)強化家庭功能，以增加婦女的社會支援；(二)提高育兒補助並視嬰幼兒為未來國家的資產，以減緩少子化的趨勢；(三)政府應以人口優質及避免人口短缺的方向努力；(四)政府應積極擬訂鼓勵男性參與育兒及家務政策，並將養育責任，由兩性來共同承擔，以達到美滿家庭的目標；(五)加強改善婦女的經濟地位，鼓勵並積極輔導婦女就業及強化專業職能的訓練，不致因婚育而影響其勞動參與，以提高其生育意願；(六)政府應正視目前超低生育率的現象，設立專責機構並參考國外(如日本或法國)生育政策及托育制度，以提高國內生育率。 關鍵字：少子化、超低生育率、生育行為、生育意願 / In Taiwan, the rate of fertility has been continually in decline in recently year, which is called ‘the phenomenon of declining birth rate.’ It signifies a less future population and impacts on every aspects of our social structure and economic development. This, it is worthy of probing. This research is conducted with the method of literature review and in-depth interviews.It first analyzes via literature review those factors influencing the will of bearing children, such as the impact of the structural change of population on the macro economy, the theory of fertility behavior, considerations of livelihood, and the women participation in labor, etc. All those factors are inducted and sorted as the basis of in-depth interview. Then, the in-depth interview is conducted on 12 married women, penetrating on the cause of extremely low fertility rate in Taiwan. This research finds the reasons to cause the low rate of fertility are as below: First, the traditional idea is decline currently to have children caring the agedness. Meanwhile, the females are learning the independent consciousness to decide how many children they want in life. The second: high grade education & late marriage is one of the trends of declining birth rate with elder females. The third: taking consideration into the family’s economy as well as hard teaching on child, most families turn to focus on life quality instead of having kid's amount. The fourth: the heavy loading of housework on females is also the reason to reduce the will of bearing children. Finally, not only the current child care policy/system but also the limited subsidization by the government is not perfect to meet the family’s requirements; which are unable to promote the will of bearing children. Based on such research findings, I come up with six policy recommendations as follows to encourage our country’s bearing rate：(一) to enhance family function according to the research, with increment women of social support；(二) look after the kids as the country’s property to promote the subsidization of bearing children to reduce the declining birth rate；(三) government should forward to superior quality population, and to avoid the population runs short；(四) the government should actively draw up some bearing plans to encourage male’s participation (sharing evenly) on child care, housework & teaching responsibility in family; which is aimed to build a sweet home for couples；(五) to improve the female’s economic position. And, to encourage/guide women to work with complete working training for proper job arrangement, which will encourage their will of bearing children when woman gets independent incomes；(六) the government should notice the serious declining birth rate currently – i.e. not only to establish some responsible organizations, but also to refer successful growing policy and child care system from other countries (such as Japan, France) in order to raise the fertility rate in Taiwan..

近年來台灣人口結構發生改變，人口高齡化及少子化的現象日趨嚴重，對物業管理未來服務策略之影響及發展影響甚鉅；因此因應環境的變動、制訂企業的發展策略、以謀取企業生存和發展，已成為物業管理公司關注的焦點。本研究將以台灣人口結構的改變對台灣物業管理產業之衝擊為前提，探討物業管理業者與個案公司服務策略之變動。 本研究從企業策略管理的基本理論著手，並探討個案公司的基本狀況和發展歷程、對個案公司目前的經營管理狀況給予分析。接著利用SWOT策略管理分析個案公司的優劣勢、機會、威脅。除了採用SWOT分析之外，本研究也使用波特五力分析台灣物業管理產業，並進而參考了日本物業管理之產業現況、日本物業管理加值服務市場現況、日本物業管理未來之發展趨勢與日本高齡化人口的演變，列於附錄之中，以對台灣目前產業環境以及所面臨的人口高齡化議題做相關之印證。經過以上研究步驟，本研究確立了個案公司的市場定位，從而設計出齊家物業個案公司針對人口高齡化之服務策略以及未來展望。 本研究運用了目前企業策略管理的主流理論及分析工具，對個案公司的發展策略做了較為完整的論述，既分析了現狀，確認其發展策略，又為其策略執行提出了有效及可行的方案。本研究希冀為個案公司提供更好在激烈的市場競爭之中正確發展的企業策略，讓個案公司不斷地保持其競爭優勢，並具有重大的市場不可取代定位，以及對從事物業管理產業的相關企業有相當程度的參考價值。

“Taiwan's birth rate at world record low”, opening the newspapers in Taiwan, we often could see the similar titles once in a while, the total fertility rate is 1.03‰ in 2010 which means each woman only give birth to 1.03 child a life. The population is one of the key factors to form the country. The low birth rate phenomenon occurred not only in Taiwan, but also in many developed countries. Demographers, governmental and international institutions have feared that lowest-low fertility might prove to be persistent in both developed and developing countries. Demographers in the mid-1990s could not have predicted that fertility would fall so rapidly to such levels. Not only did fertility but also other indicators related to fertility and the family adjusted suddenly and we are approaching the recent fertility decline from a broader perspective that considers the traditional and cultural legacies which affect the everyday life of ordinary citizens. The article would take the experience of OECD countries and discuss the phenomenon of the fertility measures and observe the plausible approaches of education authorities deal with low birth rate in developed countries and Taiwan.

本研究旨在探討少子化趨勢對我國國民教育師資供需之影響與相關對策。首先係從我國學齡人口結構現況及趨勢作切入，進而探究少子化趨勢對師資培育政策之影響，並分析國民教育師資供需之現況與趨勢，最後本研究藉以百分比統計、集群分析、時間序列分析、灰色預測及模糊德菲法等統計方法，分析國民教育階段師資供需之現況、預測及策略方案之評估，進而提出相關因應對策，提供政策設計者之決策參考，以期透過適當的調節與管控機制，俾利國民教育師資市場的供需均衡。 本研究依研究目的所獲得之主要研究結論有以下幾點： 一、國民教育學齡學生數之發展趨勢，已顯見受到少子化趨勢之衝擊。惟各縣市所反映之衝擊情形不同，其中以高雄市、臺北縣、基隆市、臺中市、嘉義市及臺南市等六縣市之衝擊情形最大。 二、各縣市國民小學師資人力現況受少子化趨勢之影響不一，尤其臺北市、高雄市、臺北縣、苗栗縣、臺中縣、彰化縣、南投縣、嘉義縣、 臺南縣、高雄縣、屏東縣、花蓮縣、基隆市與臺南市等縣市已呈現師資人力過剩飽和之現況。 三、各縣市國民中學師資人力現況，尚未因學齡人口數減少受明顯之衝擊，各縣市師資人力的波動情形仍屬混沌，惟其中以臺北市、彰化縣、南投縣、雲林縣、嘉義縣、屏東縣與臺南縣等屬師資人力遞減之地區。 四、以時間序列分析單變量ARIMA模式與灰色預測GM（1,1）模式進行國民教育教師人數預測之效果良好，尤其灰色預測方法平均準確率多達99％以上。 五、各縣市95-100學年度國民小學教師人數預估約減少5,703人，減少百分比為5.47％。除桃園縣、臺東縣及新竹市教師人數略有成長外，其餘各縣市教師人數皆明顯遞減，尤其南投縣、基隆市、臺北縣及屏東縣教師人數減少比率皆超過10％。 六、各縣市95-100學年度國民中學教師人數預估約增加118人，增加百分比為0.247％。其中，以臺東縣、新竹縣、嘉義市、桃園縣及澎湖縣教師人數屬穩定成長之縣市，惟雲林縣、嘉義縣、臺北市及屏東縣則屬教師人數大幅減少之縣市，其減少比率皆超過10％。 七、為期有效解決國民教育師資供需失衡之問題，於政策方案上，首要之務應先從「教師離退制度」及「教師員額編制」之體制面改革著手。 根據以上之研究結果，本研究提出以下建議，供教育行政機估決策與未來研究時之參考： 一、對教育行政機關的建議 （一）各縣市政府教育局應確實掌握未來各學年度學齡學生數之變化，並正視超額留用教師人數將逐年增加之趨勢，妥適研擬與修訂相關人事法規與制度。 （二）加強不適任教師之督導淘汰機制，推動教師專業發展評鑑，符應「專業本位、保優汰劣」之要求。 （三）健全師資培育機構組織，持續評估調節師資供需數量，落實「適量優質儲備」之措施。 （四）適當調整國民中小學教師員額編制，達成「小班小校」之理念。 （五）師資估需預測宜進行縱貫性長期研究，並委由專責單位進行全國各級學校師資推估工作。 二、對後續研究的建議 （一）在研究主題方面，可探討少子化趨勢所造成學校整併、閒置教室空間規劃、學生單位成本改變及學校行銷因應策略等議題。 （二）在研究範圍方面，可採單一縣市為研究範圍，且持續在不同的時間進行預測與評估，在研究結果之推論上將更符合現況之需求。 （三）在研究對象方面，未來之研究可針對高中職與大專校院之相對衝擊與因應策略進行研究，將使研究結果更為廣泛推論。 （四）在研究方法方面，在專家意見整合方面可改用焦點團體法或腦力激盪法；在意見調查方面可兼採質化方法。 （五）在統計方法方面，在師資供需預測方面可採以時間數列分析、模糊時間數列分析、類神經網路、多變量模糊時間數列等統計方法，藉以比較預測結果之統計差異。 / The low birth rate--the influence and strategy of the supply and demand of teacher in compulsory education Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyze the policy of teacher education by the point view of population composition and probe into the state of teacher supply and demand, with its trend of development. The article analyze by percentage, cluster analysis, time series analysis, grey forecasting, and fuzzy Delphi method to realize the current situation, forecast and solving strategies of teacher supply and demand bring related solving strategies. Marjor findings include the following: 1.The trend of students in compulsory education was to affect by the low birth rate. Every county in the low birth rate was different, especially the most influence were Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Keelung city, Taichung city, Chiayi city, and Tainan city. 2.The teacher supply and demand of different counties in elementary education were not the same, especially the most saturated membership of teachers were Taipei city, Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Miaoli county, Taichung county, Changhua county, Nantou county, Chiayi county, Tainan county, Kaohsiung county, Pingtung county, Hualien county, Keelung city, and Tainan city. 3. The teacher supply and demand of different counties in middle education were disorderly by the low birth rate influence, but these counties’ teachers development trend were cut down, including Taipei city, Chiayi county, Nantou county, Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Pingtung county, and Tainan county. 4.The ARIMA model and grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting the supply and demand of teacher were good methods, especially the grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting degree of accuracy exceeds 99 percent. 5.Elementary education is forecasted reducing rough 5,703 teachers in 95-100 session. Besides Taoyuan county, Taitung county, and Hsinchu city have growth of teachers, the others’ teachers have obvious reducing, especially Nantou county, Keelung city, Taipei county, and Penghu county reduce teachers exceeding 10 percent. 6.The earlier stage of Middle education is forecasted increase rough 118 teachers in 95-100 session. Among countries belong to the growth of teachers are Taitung county, Hsinchu county, Chiayi city, Taoyuan county, and Penghu county. However, Among countries belong to the reducing of teachers are Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Taipei city, and Pingtung county, which reducing percentage over 10 percent. 7. To solving the imbalance of teacher supply and demand must be started in teachers’ retirement and evaluation reform, and teacher membership of organization reform. Based on the finding, several recommendations were made for the superior authorities, for the governments of education administration as well as for further research.

少子化是目前台灣面臨的一大危機，從歷史脈絡來看，台灣屬於標準的移民社會，然而，因早年戒嚴等政治因素使我國對於入出境人流管制相當嚴格，同時亦不重視移民政策，直至近年來外籍配偶及大陸配偶人數大量增加，政府單位逐漸注意此一新興社會現象。 同時，台灣與新加坡皆為亞洲四小龍成員，在人口結構來講，同屬以華人為主體的多元族群國家，兩者皆面臨全球化衝擊，以及面臨國土資源不足、生育率逐年降低、人口老化等社會與人口結構改變的隱憂。而新加坡對移民政策的重視則遠超過我國，其相關法令的制定、多元的教育、豐富的獎勵刺激移民與生育都是值得我們所學習的。 回顧其發展過程，新加坡的移民政策與法令也讓社會產生程度不一的反彈，這些優缺利弊都是讓我國借鑒的範例，藉他山之石，檢視我國移民法令的侷限，為了有效刺激外來人口移入與降低不同文化產生的衝突，新加坡經驗是值得參考的對象。 / Low birth rate is one of the major challenges faced by Taiwanese government nowadays. Taiwan can be categorized as a typical immigrant society from the view of history. However, the immigration control was very strict during the early days due to political issues and the implementation of martial laws. The immigration policies have been ignored for long until the population of foreign and mainland spouse rose tremendously hence gradually caught the attention of Taiwanese government. Taiwan and Singapore are both viewed as the members of Four Asian Tigers. Both islandsare composed by multi-racial population and with Chinese as majority. Meanwhile, both nations face the challenges such as impact of globalization, relatively insufficient domestic resources, low birth rate, and aging population. Singapore government takes immigration policies more seriously than Taiwan, the regulations of laws, educational diversity, and abundant rewards for encouraging immigration and birth rate of Singapore are worth to learn from. Singapore’s immigration policies and regulations also aroused backlash from the public. The pros and cons of their policies should also be taken into considerations while making the proper policies for Taiwan. The experience of Singapore would benefit on the spurring of immigration to Taiwan and easing the conflicts result from cultural differences.