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Risky Predictions, Damn Strange Coincidences, and Theory Appraisal: A Multivariate Corroboration Index for Path Analytic ModelsHogarty, Kristine Y 31 October 2003 (has links)
The empirical testing of theories is an important component of research in any field. Yet despite the long history of science, the extent to which theories are supported or contradicted by the results of empirical research remains ill defined. Quite commonly, support or contradiction is based solely on the "reject" or "fail to reject" decisions that result from tests of null hypotheses that are derived from aspects of theory. Decisions and recommendations based on this forced and often artificial dichotomy have been scrutinized in the past.
In recent years, such an overly simplified approach to theory testing has been vigorously challenged in the past.Theories differ in the extent to which they provide precise predictions about observations. The precision of predictions derived from theories is proportional to the strength of support that may be provided by empirical evidence congruent with the prediction. However, the notion of precision linked to strength of support is surprisingly absent from many discussions regarding the appraisal of theories.
Meehl (1990a) has presented a logically sound index of corroboration to summarize the extent to which empirical tests of theories provide support or contradiction of theories. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of this index of corroboration and its behavior when employing path analytic methods in the context of social science research.
The performance of a multivariate extension of Meehl’s Corroboration Index (Ci) was evaluated using Monte Carlo methods. Correlational data were simulated to correspond to tests of theories via traditional path analysis. Five factors were included in the study: number of variables in the path model, level of intolerance of the theory, correspondence of the theory to the ‘true’ path model used for data generation, sample size and level of collinearity.
Results were evaluated in terms of the mean and standard error of the resulting multivariate Ci values. The level of intolerance was observed to be the strongest influence on mean Ci. Verisimilitude and model complexity were not observed to be strong determinants of the mean Ci. Sample size and collinearity evidenced small relationships with the mean value of Ci, but were more closely related to the sampling error.
Implications for theory and practice include alternatives and complements to tests of statistical significance, a shift from comparing findings to the null hypothesis, to the comparison of alternative theories and models, and the inclusion of additional logical components besides the theory itself. Lastly, an alternative conceptualization of the multivariate corroboration index is advanced to guide future research efforts.
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The Brazilian Fairy Tale – The Union Leader Becomes PresidentWesterlund, Johanna January 2009 (has links)
<p>Brazilian politics has for a long time been considered an elitist system, dealing with corruption and social inequalities. In 2002 something unimagined happened when the former industrial worker Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was elected President of the Republic of Brazil. This case study examines Lula’s authority role as President by testing the theories Cinderella Complex and Max Weber’s theory of Pure Leadership. It also tries to explain what motivates Lula’s actions and what affect this has on Brazilian politics. The case study reveals that Lula is not driven by any ideology, but is motivated by own personal interests of eliminating hunger and poverty. To realise these wishes he creates alliances in order to get enough support for these policies. Even though his government is designed as a bureaucratic administration, Lula has not proven to use rational ideas to establish new reforms. Instead he is dependent on raising enough support and trust, through his charismatic image. This is visible in his election campaigns. This leadership style has implemented some valuable programmes like the Fome Zero and Bolsa Familia, but his endless travels and commitments abroad joint with his approach to the corruption scandal in 2005 has created a new image of Lula as a negligent person.</p><p>This case study is using qualitative methods to explain the leader and President of Brazil.</p>
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The Brazilian Fairy Tale – The Union Leader Becomes PresidentWesterlund, Johanna January 2009 (has links)
Brazilian politics has for a long time been considered an elitist system, dealing with corruption and social inequalities. In 2002 something unimagined happened when the former industrial worker Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was elected President of the Republic of Brazil. This case study examines Lula’s authority role as President by testing the theories Cinderella Complex and Max Weber’s theory of Pure Leadership. It also tries to explain what motivates Lula’s actions and what affect this has on Brazilian politics. The case study reveals that Lula is not driven by any ideology, but is motivated by own personal interests of eliminating hunger and poverty. To realise these wishes he creates alliances in order to get enough support for these policies. Even though his government is designed as a bureaucratic administration, Lula has not proven to use rational ideas to establish new reforms. Instead he is dependent on raising enough support and trust, through his charismatic image. This is visible in his election campaigns. This leadership style has implemented some valuable programmes like the Fome Zero and Bolsa Familia, but his endless travels and commitments abroad joint with his approach to the corruption scandal in 2005 has created a new image of Lula as a negligent person. This case study is using qualitative methods to explain the leader and President of Brazil.
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Risky predictions, damn strange coincidences, and theory appraisal [electronic resource] : a multivariate corroboration index for path analytic models / by Kristine Y. Hogarty.Hogarty, Kristine Y. January 2003 (has links)
Includes vita. / Title from PDF of title page. / Document formatted into pages; contains 158 pages. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of South Florida, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references. / Text (Electronic thesis) in PDF format. / ABSTRACT: The empirical testing of theories is an important component of research in any field. Yet despite the long history of science, the extent to which theories are supported or contradicted by the results of empirical research remains ill defined. Quite commonly, support or contradiction is based solely on the "reject" or "fail to reject" decisions that result from tests of null hypotheses that are derived from aspects of theory. Decisions and recommendations based on this forced and often artificial dichotomy have been scrutinized in the past. Such an overly simplified approach to theory testing has been vigorously challenged in the past. Theories differ in the extent to which they provide precise predictions about observations. The precision of predictions derived from theories is proportional to the strength of support that may be provided by empirical evidence congruent with the prediction. / ABSTRACT: However, the notion of precision linked to strength of support is surprisingly absent from many discussions regarding the appraisal of theories. In the early 1990s, Meehl presented an index of corroboration to summarize the extent to which empirical tests of theories provide support or contradiction of theories. This index is comprised of a closeness component and an estimate of precision. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of this index of corroboration and its behavior when employing path analytic methods in the context of social science research. The performance of a multivariate extension of Meehl's Corroboration Index (Ci) was evaluated using Monte Carlo methods by simulating traditional path analysis. Five factors were included in the study: model complexity, level of intolerance, verisimilitude, sample size and level of collinearity. Results were evaluated in terms of the mean and standard error of the resulting multivariate Ci values. / ABSTRACT: Of the five central design factors investigated, the level of intolerance was observed to be the strongest influence on mean Ci. Verisimilitude and model complexity were not observed to be strong determinants of the mean Ci. The lack of sensitivity of the index to the other design factors led to a proposed alternative conceptualization of the multivariate corroboration index to guide future research efforts. / System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader. / Mode of access: World Wide Web.
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Part-time Nurse Faculty Intent to Remain Employed in the Academic OrganizationFerron, Era Mae 09 January 2014 (has links)
Part-time nurse faculty play an important role in the production and quality of the nursing workforce. However, the shortage of nurse faculty exacerbates current shortages of nurses. In Canada, the shortage is predicted to reach 60,000 full-time equivalent RNs by 2022. Therefore, retaining qualified part-time nurse faculty in academia is a key component in managing the shortage problem. The purpose of this study was to test and refine a model of part-time nurse faculty intent to remain employed in the academic organization. Cross-sectional survey methods were employed. A total of 282 part-time nurse faculty employed within Ontario, Canada colleges or universities were invited to participate. Survey instruments and items measured demographic, workplace, nurse responses to the workplace, and external variables. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were conducted using data from 119 participants (47.6% true response rate). Of the 19 variables hypothesized to affect intent to remain employed in the academic organization, seven influenced intent to remain. The resulting model indicated that the older the part-time nurse faculty member, the lower the level of intent to remain and the more years worked in the organization, the higher the level of intent to remain. The more opportunities perceived to exist outside of the employing organization, the higher the level of intent to remain. Additionally, the more satisfied part-time nurse faculty were with their job overall, the higher their level of intent to remain. In the workplace, the more support from the leader, the more formal or informal recognition received, and the more fair work procedures were perceived to be, the higher levels of part-time nurse faculty intent to remain employed in the academic organization, mediated by job satisfaction. Although age, organizational tenure, and external career opportunities are non-modifiable variables, deans and directors can encourage part-time nurse faculty to remain employed in their academic job by focusing on enhancing overall job satisfaction. Effective strategies may include formal or informal acknowledgement of good performance, consistent verbal and behavioural support, and implementation of procedural practices, such as performance evaluations and pay raises in a fair manner.
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Part-time Nurse Faculty Intent to Remain Employed in the Academic OrganizationFerron, Era Mae 09 January 2014 (has links)
Part-time nurse faculty play an important role in the production and quality of the nursing workforce. However, the shortage of nurse faculty exacerbates current shortages of nurses. In Canada, the shortage is predicted to reach 60,000 full-time equivalent RNs by 2022. Therefore, retaining qualified part-time nurse faculty in academia is a key component in managing the shortage problem. The purpose of this study was to test and refine a model of part-time nurse faculty intent to remain employed in the academic organization. Cross-sectional survey methods were employed. A total of 282 part-time nurse faculty employed within Ontario, Canada colleges or universities were invited to participate. Survey instruments and items measured demographic, workplace, nurse responses to the workplace, and external variables. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were conducted using data from 119 participants (47.6% true response rate). Of the 19 variables hypothesized to affect intent to remain employed in the academic organization, seven influenced intent to remain. The resulting model indicated that the older the part-time nurse faculty member, the lower the level of intent to remain and the more years worked in the organization, the higher the level of intent to remain. The more opportunities perceived to exist outside of the employing organization, the higher the level of intent to remain. Additionally, the more satisfied part-time nurse faculty were with their job overall, the higher their level of intent to remain. In the workplace, the more support from the leader, the more formal or informal recognition received, and the more fair work procedures were perceived to be, the higher levels of part-time nurse faculty intent to remain employed in the academic organization, mediated by job satisfaction. Although age, organizational tenure, and external career opportunities are non-modifiable variables, deans and directors can encourage part-time nurse faculty to remain employed in their academic job by focusing on enhancing overall job satisfaction. Effective strategies may include formal or informal acknowledgement of good performance, consistent verbal and behavioural support, and implementation of procedural practices, such as performance evaluations and pay raises in a fair manner.
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The psychosocial characteristics and on-road behaviour of unlicensed driversWatson, Barry Craig January 2004 (has links)
Unlicensed driving remains a serious problem for road safety, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. While it does not play a direct causative role in road crashes, unlicensed driving undermines the integrity of the driver licensing system and is associated with a range of high-risk behaviours. This thesis documents three studies that were undertaken to explore the scope and nature of unlicensed driving, in order to develop more effective countermeasures to the behaviour.-----
Study One utilised official road crash data from the Australian state of Queensland to compare the crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers with those of licensed drivers. The results confirmed that unlicensed driving is a relatively small, but significant road safety problem. Unlicensed drivers represent over 6% of the drivers involved in fatal crashes and 5% of those in serious injury crashes. Based on a quasi-induced exposure method, unlicensed drivers were found to be almost three times as likely to be involved in a crash than licensed drivers. In the event of a crash, those involving unlicensed drivers were twice as likely to result in a fatality or serious injury. Consistent with these results, the serious crashes involving unlicensed drivers were more likely to feature risky driving behaviours, such as drink driving, speeding and motorcycle use, than those involving licensed drivers.-----
Study Two involved a cross-sectional survey of 309 unlicensed driving offenders who were recruited at the Brisbane Central Magistrates Court. The survey involved a face-to-face interview that took approximately 25 minutes to complete and achieved a response rate of 62.4%. A wide range of offenders participated in the study, including: disqualified and suspended drivers; expired licence holders; drivers without a current or appropriate licence; and those who had never been licensed. The results reinforced concerns about the on-road behaviour of unlicensed drivers. Almost one quarter of all the offenders reported driving unlicensed when they thought they might have been over the alcohol limit. Similarly, 25% reported exceeding the speed limit by 10 km/h or more on most or all occasions, while 15% admitted that they didn't always wear their seat belt. In addition, the results indicated that unlicensed drivers should not be viewed as a homogeneous group. Significant differences were found between the offender types in terms of their socio-demographic characteristics (age, education level, prior criminal convictions); driving history (prior convictions for unlicensed driving and other traffic offences); whether they were aware of being unlicensed; the degree to which they limited their driving while unlicensed; and their drink driving behaviour. In particular, a more deviant sub-group of offenders was identified, that included the disqualified, not currently licensed and never licensed drivers, who reported higher levels of prior criminal offending, alcohol misuse and self-reported drink driving. The results of Study Two also highlight the shortcomings of existing police enforcement practices. Almost one-third of the sample reported that they continued to drive unlicensed after being detected by the police (up until the time of the court hearing), while many offenders reported experiences of punishment avoidance. For example, over one third of the participants reported being pulled over by the police while driving unlicensed and not having their licence checked.-----
Study Three involved the further analysis of the cross-sectional survey data to explore the factors contributing to unlicensed driving. It examined the influence of various personal, social and environmental factors on three aspects of the offenders' behaviour: the frequency of their driving while unlicensed; whether they continued to drive unlicensed after being detected; and their intentions to drive unlicensed in the future. This study was also designed to assess the capacity of a number of different theoretical perspectives to explain unlicensed driving behaviour, including deterrence theory and Akers' (1977) social learning theory. At an applied level, the results of Study Three indicated that personal and social factors exert the strongest influence over unlicensed driving behaviour. The main personal influences on unlicensed driving were: the need to drive for work purposes; exposure to punishment avoidance; personal attitudes to unlicensed driving; and anticipated punishments for the behaviour. The main social influences reflected the social learning construct of differential association, namely being exposed to significant others who both engage in unlicensed driving (behavioural dimension) and hold positive attitudes to the behaviour (normative dimension). At a theoretical level, the results of Study Three have two important implications for traffic psychology and criminology. Firstly, they provided partial support for Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualisation of deterrence theory by demonstrating that the inclusion of punishment avoidance can improve the overall predictive utility of the perspective. Secondly, they suggested that social learning theory represents a more comprehensive framework for predicting illegal driving behaviours, such as unlicensed driving. This is consistent with Akers' (1977; 1990) assertion that formal deterrence processes can be subsumed within social learning theory.-----
Together, the results of the three studies have important implications for road safety. Most importantly, they question the common assumption that unlicensed drivers drive in a more cautious manner to avoid detection. While the findings indicate that many offenders reduce their overall driving exposure in order to avoid detection, this does not appear to result in safer driving. While it remains possible that unlicensed drivers tend to act more cautiously than they would otherwise, it appears that their driving behaviour is primarily designed to reduce their chances of detection. In terms of countermeasures, the research indicates that a multi-strategy approach is required to address the problem of unlicensed driving. Unlicensed drivers do not represent a homogeneous group who are likely to be influenced by the threat of punishment alone. Rather, innovative strategies are required to address the wide range of factors that appear to encourage or facilitate the behaviour. Foremost among these are punishment avoidance and the need to drive for work purposes.
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Investigating Wasp Societies: A Historical and Epistemological StudyJanuary 2016 (has links)
abstract: The study of wasp societies (family Vespidae) has played a central role in advancing our knowledge of why social life evolves and how it functions. This dissertation asks: How have scientists generated and evaluated new concepts and theories about social life and its evolution by investigating wasp societies? It addresses this question both from a narrative/historical and from a reflective/epistemological perspective. The historical narratives reconstruct the investigative pathways of the Italian entomologist Leo Pardi (1915-1990) and the British evolutionary biologist William D. Hamilton (1936-2000). The works of these two scientists represent respectively the beginning of our current understanding of immediate and evolutionary causes of social life. Chapter 1 shows how Pardi, in the 1940s, generated a conceptual framework to explain how wasp colonies function in terms of social and reproductive dominance. Chapter 2 shows how Hamilton, in the 1960s, attempted to evaluate his own theory of inclusive fitness by investigating social wasps. The epistemological reflections revolve around the idea of investigative framework for theory evaluation. Chapter 3 draws on the analysis of important studies on social wasps from the 1960s and 1970s and provides an account of theory evaluation in the form of an investigative framework. The framework shows how inferences from empirical data (bottom-up) and inferences from the theory (top-down) inform one another in the generation of hypotheses, predictions and statements about phenomena of social evolution. It provides an alternative to existing philosophical accounts of scientific inquiry and theory evaluation, which keep a strong, hierarchical distinction between inferences from the theory and inferences from the data. The historical narratives in this dissertation show that important scientists have advanced our knowledge of complex biological phenomena by constantly interweaving empirical, conceptual, and theoretical work. The epistemological reflections argue that we need holistic frameworks that account for how multiple scientific practices synergistically contribute to advance our knowledge of complex phenomena. Both narratives and reflections aim to inspire and inform future work in social evolution capitalizing on lessons learnt from the past. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Biology 2016
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Can Postcolonialism and Neoliberalism Reveal All? : Understanding Celebrity Humanitarianism through a Case Study on Rihanna and Fenty BeautyHuovinen, Nina January 2021 (has links)
Celebrity humanitarianism has become a notable field of research within Communication for Development. Largely built around case studies of individual celebrities engaging in the development and humanitarian fields, mostly postcolonial and neoliberal critique has been put forth regarding the effects of such engagements. These critiques at times go to the extent of suggesting that celebrity humanitarians might be doing more harm than good by for example shifting the focus away from underlying structures. As the field of study often provides more critique than constructive suggestions, this study is built as a deductive case study aiming to test the extent to which current prominent theoretical frameworks are able to understand celebrity humanitarianism when a celebrity humanitarian is studied as a more comprehensive construct. The focus of the case study is the Barbadian singer Rihanna and her cosmetics brand Fenty Beauty. The dominant theories are challenged with including a business aspect of the celebrity’s ‘ecosystem’ and by examining such aspect through a Corporate Social Responsibility lens.
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Street Robbery Patterns: A Mixed Method Test of Situational Action Theory and Crime Pattern TheoryEidson, Jillian L January 2020 (has links)
According to current scholarship on offender decision making, choosing to rob another is based on a variety of individual and situational characteristics. Explanatory models often invoked within environmental criminology include routine activity, rational choice and crime pattern theories. Situational action theory’s suggestion that this decision depends, at least in part, on the interaction between offender criminal propensity and the setting’s moral context has yet to be examined. This investigation tests this idea by conducting structured interviews with active probationers and parolees centered on their decoding of streetscapes to clarify offenders’ perceptions of street robbery opportunities (Part I). These results inform an agent-based simulation contrasting the merits of assumptions made in the previously stated theories to learn how well each generates realistic concentrations of street robbery (Part II). Support emerges for both environmental criminology and situational action theory, but the results differed by the method employed. Implications follow for clarifying the theoretical processes driving these incidents and for promoting public safety. / Criminal Justice
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