Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Cape Town, 1989. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 143-154).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1988. / Supervised by Mark Cane and Philip Richardson. "January 1988." Funding provided by the National Science Foundation, grant numbers OCE 82-08744, and OCE 85-14885. Includes bibliographical references (p. 339-351).

As a global climate phenomenon, the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) involves the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere. Most climate prediction studies have, by far, only investigated the teleconnections between global climatic anomalies and the ???surface??? predictors of ENSO. The prediction models resulting from these studies have generally suffered from inadequate, if not the lack of, skill across the so-called boreal ???spring barrier???. This is illustrated in the first part of this thesis where the applicability of the SOI phase for long-lead rainfall projections in Australia is discussed. With the increasing availability of subsurface ocean temperature data, the characteristics of the Pacific Ocean???s heat content and its role in ENSO are now better understood. The second part of this thesis investigated the predictability of ENSO using the thermocline as a predictor. While the persistence and SST-based ENSO hindcasts dropped in skill across the spring barrier, the thermocline-based hindcasts remained skillful even up to a lag of eighteen months. Continuing on the favorable results of ENSO prediction, the third part of this thesis extended the use of the thermocline in the prediction of Australia???s rainfall and streamflow. When compared to models that use ???surface??? predictors, the model that incorporated thermocline information resulted in more skillful projections of rainfall and streamflow especially at long lead-times. More importantly, significant increases in skill of autumn and winter projections demonstrate the ability of the subsurface ocean to retain some climatic memory across the predictability barrier. This resilience can be attributed to the high persistence of the ocean heat content during the first half of the year. Based on weighting, the model averaging exercise also affirmed the superiority of the ???subsurface??? model over the ???surface??? models in terms of streamflow projections. The encouraging findings of this study could have far-reaching implications not only to the science of ENSO prediction but also to the more pragmatic realm of hydrologic forecasting. What this study has demonstrated is an alternative predictor that is suitable for the long range forecasting of ENSO, rainfall and streamflow. With better hydrologic forecasting comes significant improvement in the management of reservoirs which eventually leads to an increase in the reliability and sufficiency of water supply provision.

As a global climate phenomenon, the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) involves the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere. Most climate prediction studies have, by far, only investigated the teleconnections between global climatic anomalies and the ???surface??? predictors of ENSO. The prediction models resulting from these studies have generally suffered from inadequate, if not the lack of, skill across the so-called boreal ???spring barrier???. This is illustrated in the first part of this thesis where the applicability of the SOI phase for long-lead rainfall projections in Australia is discussed. With the increasing availability of subsurface ocean temperature data, the characteristics of the Pacific Ocean???s heat content and its role in ENSO are now better understood. The second part of this thesis investigated the predictability of ENSO using the thermocline as a predictor. While the persistence and SST-based ENSO hindcasts dropped in skill across the spring barrier, the thermocline-based hindcasts remained skillful even up to a lag of eighteen months. Continuing on the favorable results of ENSO prediction, the third part of this thesis extended the use of the thermocline in the prediction of Australia???s rainfall and streamflow. When compared to models that use ???surface??? predictors, the model that incorporated thermocline information resulted in more skillful projections of rainfall and streamflow especially at long lead-times. More importantly, significant increases in skill of autumn and winter projections demonstrate the ability of the subsurface ocean to retain some climatic memory across the predictability barrier. This resilience can be attributed to the high persistence of the ocean heat content during the first half of the year. Based on weighting, the model averaging exercise also affirmed the superiority of the ???subsurface??? model over the ???surface??? models in terms of streamflow projections. The encouraging findings of this study could have far-reaching implications not only to the science of ENSO prediction but also to the more pragmatic realm of hydrologic forecasting. What this study has demonstrated is an alternative predictor that is suitable for the long range forecasting of ENSO, rainfall and streamflow. With better hydrologic forecasting comes significant improvement in the management of reservoirs which eventually leads to an increase in the reliability and sufficiency of water supply provision.

Thesis (M.S.)--Naval Postgraduate School, 1994. / "September 1994." Includes bibliographical references (p. 77-78).

Located in the far western equatorial Pacific, the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is a greater than 10 million km² area of the warmest water on the planet. The WPWP therefore facilitates intense atmospheric convection and participates in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, regional monsoons, and the shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone. The WPWP is also a water mass crossroads where thermocline-depth western boundary currents (WBCs) such as the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCUC) facilitate the transfer of mass, heat, and nutrients vertically, zonally, and meridionally in the ocean. In this dissertation I focus mostly on reconstructing WPWP upper ocean temperature, salinity, nutrient, and productivity dynamics via a suite of physical and geochemical paleoclimate proxies. I apply these proxies in bulk sediments and planktic foraminifera from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1486 over the Pleistocene (2580 ka to 11.7 ka) and Holocene (11.7 ka to present). Site U1486 is located at 2°22’S, 144°36’E in the Bismarck Sea north of New Guinea in the southern WPWP, and is ideally situated to track changes to the WPWP upper water column forced by the South Pacific. The presence of glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability within WPWP records is particularly important for determining local versus high-latitude climatic influences on the WPWP – with climate shifts such as the mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; ~1250 – 700 ka) and mid-Brunhes Event (MBE; ~430 ka) of particular interest in the long-term records I present. In chapter 1, I explore the paleoceanography of the low-latitude Pacific via upper ocean nitrate dynamics. I present a new bulk sediment ẟ¹⁵N record from Site U1486 that spans from 1420 to 0.67 ka – over a million years longer than any nearby records. Via analysis of orbital variability and secular trends at Site U1486 and in records directly along the equator in the Pacific, I find that nitrate dynamics were largely unrelated in the two regions in the Middle and Late Pleistocene. Whereas ẟ¹⁵N at Site U1486 is in line with patterns of eastern Pacific denitrification, increasing ẟ¹⁵N after the MPT at sites located directly along the equator appears linked to increasing Southern Ocean nitrate utilization. Enhanced nitrate utilization is an indicator of a strengthened biological pump – a major contributor to the reduction of atmospheric 𝑝CO₂ during the last glacial. A post-MPT increase in nitrate utilization may therefore point to the Southern Ocean biological pump as a driver for the deeper and longer glacial periods of the 100-kyr world after the MPT. In Chapter 2, I investigate changes in the vertical temperature and salinity structure of the southern sector of the WPWP in relation to the upper ocean’s response to climate change. When combined with Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and δ¹⁸O_sw, my 670-kyr record of Δẟ¹⁸O between the surface-dwelling foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (sensu stricto) and the thermocline-dwelling foraminifera Pulleniatina obliquiloculata and Globorotalia tumida suggests enhanced thermocline shoaling and a progressively increasing vertical salinity gradient commencing near 240 ka. This secular change in upper water column dynamics does not appear to be associated with previously documented changes in G-IG variability such as the MPT or MBE. Via comparison to other records, I identify widespread cooling of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific after ~240 ka. After combining these reconstructions with ²³⁰Th-derived focusing factors I validate previous model results indicating obliquity-driven strengthening of low-latitude ocean currents and extend this to imply the periodic increased transport of high-salinity thermocline water masses. These results strengthen previous evidence that the structure of the WPWP thermocline is relatively independent from the drivers of climate at the surface and support that variability in WPWP thermocline circulation is substantially influenced by obliquity. Because of the nitrate dynamics in the Bismarck Sea, bulk sediment ẟ¹⁵N cannot be used to reconstruct productivity. However, chapter 3 constrains variability in productivity via the analysis of new ²³⁰Th-normalized records of preserved biogenic flux and its components at Site U1486 over the last 138 kyr. Here, I assess the drivers of variability in paleo-productivity by reconstructing paleo-stratification, as in the modern Bismarck Sea productivity is stimulated by the delivery of nutrients to the surface during increased upwelling (reduced stratification). Paleo-stratification is approximated by calculating upper ocean density gradients between the calcification depths of G. ruber, P. obliquiloculata, and G. tumida using Mg/Ca temperatures and δ¹⁸O_sw-estimated salinity. Decreased paleo-stratification (a reduced vertical density gradient) was associated with increased productivity and is generally in phase with maximum orbital precession. Paleo-productivity therefore appears to respond to monsoonal increases in coastal upwelling when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was at its southernmost extent. This illustrates that the unique and more direct method of constraining stratification presented here, which is subject to greater uncertainty, yields results consistent with our current understanding of upper ocean dynamics. I also identify a period between 100 and 60 ka during a potential reorganization of the upper water column in which variability in productivity occurs at a higher frequency than that of precession. Finally, while also related to ITCZ shifts, a nearby record closer to the equator is phase-lagged from Site U1486 – emphasizing the fine-scale regional differences in the drivers of primary productivity in the WPWP.

Thesis (M.S.)--Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 181-191). / In this thesis I have endeavored to determine the factors and physical processes that controlled SST and thermocline depth at 10⁰N, 125⁰W during the Pan Amer- ican Climate Study (PACS) field program. Analysis based on the PACS data set, TOPEX/Poseidon sea surface height data, European Remote Sensing satellite wind data, and model simulations and experiments reveals that the dominant mechanisms affecting the thermocline depth and SST at the mooring site during the measurement period were local surface fluxes, Ekman pumping, and vertical mixing associated with enhancement of the vertical shear by strong near-inertial waves in the upper ocean superimposed upon intra-seasonal baroclinic Rossby waves and the large scale zonal flow. / by J. Thomas Farrar. / M.S.

A key determinant of atmospheric circulation patterns and regional climatic conditions is sea surface temperature (SST). This has been the motivation for the development of various teleconnection methods aiming to forecast hydro-climatic variables. Among such methods are linear projections based on teleconnection gross indices (such as the ENSO, IOD, and NAO) or leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). However, these methods deteriorate drastically if the predefined indices or EOFs cannot account for climatic variability in the region of interest. This study introduces a new hydro-climatic forecasting method that identifies SST predictors in the form of dipole structures. An SST dipole that mimics major teleconnection patterns is defined as a function of average SST anomalies over two oceanic areas of appropriate sizes and geographic locations. The screening process of SST-dipole predictors is based on an optimization algorithm that sifts through all possible dipole configurations (with progressively refined data resolutions) and identifies dipoles with the strongest teleconnection to the external hydro-climatic series. The strength of the teleconnection is measured by the Gerrity Skill Score. The significant dipoles are cross-validated and used to generate ensemble hydro-climatic forecasts. The dipole teleconnection method is applied to the forecasting of seasonal precipitation over the southeastern US and East Africa, and the forecasting of streamflow-related variables in the Yangtze and Congo Rivers. These studies show that the new method is indeed able to identify dipoles related to well-known patterns (e.g., ENSO and IOD) as well as to quantify more prominent predictor-predictand relationships at different lead times. Furthermore, the dipole method compares favorably with existing statistical forecasting schemes. An operational forecasting framework to support better water resources management through coupling with detailed hydrologic and water resources models is also demonstrated.

The shape of the thermocline and the depth of the lysoline in the western tropical Pacific are both influenced by the overlying atmosphere, and both the shape of thermocline and the depth of the lysocline can be reconstructed from foraminifera-based paleo-proxies. Paleoclimate proxy evidence suggests a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during times of Northern Hemisphere cooling, including the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 19-23 ka before present. However, evidence for movement over the Pacific has mainly been limited to precipitation reconstructions near the continents, and the position of the Pacific marine ITCZ is less well constrained. In this study, I address this problem by taking advantage of the fact that the upper ocean density structure reflects the overlying wind field. I reconstruct changes in the upper ocean density structure during the LGM using oxygen isotope measurements on the planktonic foraminifera G. ruber and G. tumida in a transect of sediment cores from the Western Tropical Pacific. The data suggest a ridge in the thermocline just north of the present-day ITCZ persists for at least part of the LGM, and a structure in the Southern Hemisphere that differs from today. The reconstructed structure is consistent with that produced in a General Circulation Model with both a Northern and Southern Hemisphere ITCZ. I also attempt to reconstruct the upper ocean density structure for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 6, the interglacial and glacial periods, respectively, previous to the LGM. The data show a Northern Hemisphere thermocline ridge for both of these periods. There is insufficient data to draw any conclusions about the Southern Hemisphere thermocline. Using the same set of sediment cores, I also attempt to reconstruct lysocline depth over the last 23,000 years using benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope ratios, planktonic foraminiferal masses, and sediment coarse fraction percentage. Paleoclimate proxy evidence and modeling studies suggest that the deglaciation following the LGM is associated with a deepening of the lysocline and an increase in sedimentary calcite preservation. Although my data lack the resolution to constrain the depth of the lysocline, they do show an increase in calcite preservation during the last deglaciation, consistent with lysocline deepening as carbon moves from the deep ocean to the atmosphere.