Tempestades severas ocorrem na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) principalmente nos meses quentes e úmidos do ano. Nesta tese, os mecanismos de disparo da convecção profunda são estudados por meio de análises observacionais e simulações numéricas com o Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). A metodologia proposta compreende o uso da parametrização microfísica fria na simulação dos processos físicos que levam à formação de nuvens cumulonimbus, sem o uso da parametrização de cúmulos nas grades de altíssima resolução espacial. Nos eventos estudados, as primeiras células de precipitação observadas e simuladas surgiram em razão da interação entre o escoamento atmosférico na camada limite planetária e a topografia local. As células secundárias foram geralmente mais intensas, uma vez que elas surgiram após o aquecimento diabático adicional. O mecanismo de disparo das células secundárias foi a corrente ascendente induzida pela propagação horizontal das frentes de rajada em baixos níveis da atmosfera das correntes descendentes das células primárias. As frentes de rajada tiveram velocidade de propagação horizontal típica de 6 m s-1. No evento de 02 de fevereiro de 2004, células convectivas profundas foram simuladas com alto grau de realismo no domínio da grade de 3 km de resolução espacial. Observou-se que, neste caso, a frente de brisa marítima pôde atuar como guia de ondas para a colisão entre duas frentes de rajada. A propagação da frente de brisa marítima para o interior do continente ocorreu em conjunção a um forte gradiente de vapor dágua nos níveis mais baixos da troposfera. As células convectivas profundas secundárias surgiram e se desenvolveram exatamente nesta zona de interface, a qual representa o contraste entre as diferentes massas de ar marítima e continental. No evento de 04 de fevereiro de 2004, na grade de 1 km de resolução, a análise objetiva com as medidas das estações de superfície na RMSP correspondente às 1800 UTC indicou a presença de uma ilha de calor urbana com até 4 oC de aquecimento diferencial entre a Capital e vizinhanças. O principal efeito da assimilação destas medidas foi a redução do NCL em até 80 hPa, o que favoreceu o disparo da convecção naquela área. / Severe thunderstorms occur in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) mainly in the warm and wet months of the year. In this work, the triggering mechanisms of deep convection are studied through observed data and numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The proposed methodology focuses in the use of microphysics parameterization of cold clouds to simulate physical process linked to the life cycle of thunderstorms. The cumulus cloud parameterization isnt used in high resolution numerical grids. In the real case studies, both observed and simulated, early convective cells developed as a consequence of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer atmospheric flow and the local topography. The secondary convective cells were generally strongest, once they developed after additional surface diabatic heating. The triggering mechanism of these secondary cells was the updraft induced by gust fronts generated by downdrafts of primary cells. The gust fronts had a typical horizontal propagation velocity of 6 m s-1. In the February 02 2004 event, deep convective cells were simulated with high degree of realism with a 3 km resolution grid. It was observed that, in this case, the sea-breeze front could act as a wave guide to the collision between two different gust fronts. In addition, the sea breeze front propagated to the continental area together with a strong low level water vapor gradient. The secondary deep convective cells arose and developed exactly on this interface zone, which represents the contrast between the oceanic and continental air masses. The interface zone was marked by a water vapor mixing rate of 14 g kg-1. In the February 04 2004 event, the objective analysis, made with some MASP´s surface stations measurements at 1800 UTC in the 1 km resolution grid, indicates the presence of an urban heat island with up to 4 oC of differential heating between São Paulo city and its neighboring area. The main effect in assimilating these surface measurements was the lowering of the lift condensation level up to 80 hPa, which favored the triggering of convection in that area.

<p> It has been hypothesized that some measurable properties of $Z_{DR}$ arcs in supercells may change in the minutes prior to tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis failure, and that $Z_{DR}$ arc area will change with SRH and can be used as a real-time proxy to estimate SRH. Output form the Cloud Model 1 (CM1) along with a polarimetric emulator is used to simulate $Z_{DR}$ arcs in 9 tornadic and 9 non-tornadic supercells. A random forest algorithm is used to automatically identify the $Z_{DR}$ arcs. Finally the inflow sector SRH is calculated at times when $Z_{DR}$ arcs are identified. To analyze the change in intensity and area a comparison between the average $Z_{DR}$ value inside and outside of the arc, as well as the spatial size of the arc and storm was done. Model calculated SRH is then compared to these metrics.</p> <p> </p> <p> It has also been observed that hail fallout complicates the automatic identification of $Z_{DR}$ arcs. In this study, three experiments are run where the simulated $Z_{DR}$ arcs are produced. One using all categories of hydrometeors, one where wet growth and melting of hail is excluded, and one excluding the contribution to $Z_{DR}$ from the hail hydrometeor category. The same analysis as above is repeated for all three experiments. Finally observed $Z_{DR}$ arcs are analyzed to see if these results are applicable to the real world. </p>

Thunderstorms, due to their high frequency of occurrence over southern Africa, and their major contribution to summer rainfall are the primary focus of very short range forecasting and nowcasting efforts in South Africa. With a limited number of surface and upper-air observations and the limited availability of numerical model output most southern African countries are heavily reliant on satellite technology. In developing tools for the first twelve forecast hours the South African Weather Service has to address both the national and regional needs. Thus, the blending of techniques in an optimal manner is essential. This study initially describes how the Global Instability Index product derived from the European Meteosat Second Generation Satellite was adapted for South African circumstances using a different numerical model to provide background information – creating the Regional Instability Indices (RII). The focus of the study is the development of a new convection indicator, called the Combined Instability Index (CII), which calculates the probability of convection from satellite derived instability indices and moisture, as well as height above sea level early in the morning when the sky is relatively cloud free. Early morning CII values were evaluated statistically against the occurrence of lightning over South Africa, where a lightning network is available, as well as against satellite derived precipitation over southern Africa, later in the same day. It is shown that the CII not only performs well, but also outperforms the individual RII when compared to the occurrence of lightning. The CII will be beneficial to operational forecasters to focus their attention on the area which is most favourable for the development of convection later in the day. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)

From the Proceedings of the 1975 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 11-12, 1975, Tempe, Arizona / The universal soil loss equation (USLE) is widely used for estimating annual and individual storm erosion from field-sized watersheds. Records from a single precipitation gage in climatic areas dominated by thunderstorms can be used to estimate the erosion index (EI) only for the point in question on individual storms or for a specific annual value. Extrapolating the results for more than about a mile leads to serious error in estimating the erosion by the use of the USLE. Short time intervals must be used to obtain an adequate estimate of the EI when using the USLE. The variability of the annual EI can be approximated with a log-normal distribution. All studies indicated that investigations are needed to facilitate estimating the average annual EI from precipitation data as reported by state climatological summaries for states west of the 104th meridian. Additional work is needed to facilitate estimating the EI value from the precipitation data available in most areas of the southwest where thunderstorms dominate the rainfall pattern.

A ten year analysis was conducted on the ten county Nashville metro area to determine which atmospheric thermodynamic parameters are important for thunderstorm development in North-Central Tennessee. Spatiotemporal patterns of thunderstorm activity around the city were also studied. Two case studies depicting initiation (July 10, 2009) and bifurcation (June 13, 2010) of thunderstorms were additionally discussed. The purpose of the analysis was to determine whether heat from the urban heat island (UHI) or moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was a larger factor in thunderstorm formation. A similar methodology completed by Dixon and Mote (2003) for Atlanta, Georgia was used for Nashville, Tennessee. Two land based weather stations collecting dry-bulb temperatures, twice daily radiosonde measurements, and local NEXRAD weather radar were used to determine where, when, and how thunderstorms developed around Nashville. One-sample t-test hypothesis testing of 24-hour land-surface temperature differences ahead of each event along with average daily radiosondes dry-bulb and dewpoint temperatures at five standard pressure levels were examined to determine if statistically significant mean differences (α = 0.05) were found between average study days. Atmospheric stability indices and other moisture parameters such as precipitable water (PWAT), mixing ratio, theta-e, and lapse rates were examined for average differences between average study days. Ultimately, 22 events were found (18 initiations and 4 bifurcating) over the 10-year period with the non-drought years 2005 and 2010 exhibiting the most events. The warm season month of August showed the largest distribution of events with 8 events during diurnal hours (between 2 p.m.-4 p.m. CDT). The analysis also found 12 storm centers (32%) formed within 1km of interstate highways with 77% (23) of initiation locations falling within 3 km of limited access highways. Statistical results showed that moisture, rather than heat from the UHI, were a larger component to thunderstorm formation over the city of Nashville. / Department of Geography

Thunderstorms, due to their high frequency of occurrence over southern Africa, and their major contribution to summer rainfall are the primary focus of very short range forecasting and nowcasting efforts in South Africa. With a limited number of surface and upper-air observations and the limited availability of numerical model output most southern African countries are heavily reliant on satellite technology. In developing tools for the first twelve forecast hours the South African Weather Service has to address both the national and regional needs. Thus, the blending of techniques in an optimal manner is essential. This study initially describes how the Global Instability Index product derived from the European Meteosat Second Generation Satellite was adapted for South African circumstances using a different numerical model to provide background information – creating the Regional Instability Indices (RII). The focus of the study is the development of a new convection indicator, called the Combined Instability Index (CII), which calculates the probability of convection from satellite derived instability indices and moisture, as well as height above sea level early in the morning when the sky is relatively cloud free. Early morning CII values were evaluated statistically against the occurrence of lightning over South Africa, where a lightning network is available, as well as against satellite derived precipitation over southern Africa, later in the same day. It is shown that the CII not only performs well, but also outperforms the individual RII when compared to the occurrence of lightning. The CII will be beneficial to operational forecasters to focus their attention on the area which is most favourable for the development of convection later in the day. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / Quantitative descriptions of regional differences of rainfall amounts and intensities in the southwest, such as depth-duration frequencies, generally have ignored differences in the storm system that generated the rainfall and have lumped essentially different storm systems together. Thunderstorm rainfall in southern Arizona and New Mexico were analyzed using data from both recording and standard rain gages. The results were somewhat conflicting. Possibly because of more frontal activity and less distance from the Gulf of Mexico., the thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico can be more intense than those in southeastern Arizona. Recording rain gage records suggest that air-mass thunderstorms produce a larger number of more intense short-duration (about 1 hour or less) rains in southeastern Arizona than in other parts of southern Arizona. However, standard rain gage records from southern Arizona indicate that rainfall from individual air-mass thunderstorms may be greater in south-central Arizona than in se or sw Arizona. But frequency analysis of standard gage data from air-mass storms shows that the 100-year point rainfall is about 3 inches in all 3 regions. With more data becoming available, especially from remote areas, more exact separation of thunderstorm types and a better definition of rainfall will soon be possible.

From the Proceedings of the 1972 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 5-6, 1972, Prescott, Arizona / An average of 6 to 13 streamflows from intense summer convective storms occurs annually in the walnut gulch experimental station, 58 square miles in southeastern Arizona. Flows last generally less than 6 hours, and the channels are dry 99 percent of the time. The limiting factors imposed by the geology and geomorphology of the channel to transmission losses of a 6 square mile channel in the station are described. The Precambrian to quaternary geology is outlined, and geomorphology of the channels are described. Volume, porosity and specific yield of alluvium were determined. There is 106 acre-feet of alluvium with a mean specific yield of 28 percent, and a maximum water absorbing capacity of 29 acre-feet or 7 acre-feet per mile of reach. Channel slope is insensitive to changes in geological material beneath it or to changes in flow regime. Channel cross section is highly sensitive to geology and flow regime. Transmission losses were highly correlated to volume of inflow.

From the Proceedings of the 1972 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 5-6, 1972, Prescott, Arizona / Almost all runoff from semiarid rangeland watersheds in southern Arizona results from intense highly variable thunderstorm rainfall. Abstractions, or transmission losses, are important in diminishing streamflow, supporting riparian vegetation and providing natural groundwater recharge. A flood routing procedure is developed using data from the walnut gulch experimental watershed, where flood movement and transmission losses are represented by a system using storage in the channel reach as a state variable which determines loss rates. Abstractions are computed as a cascade of general components in linear form. Wide variation in the parameters of this linear model with increasing inflow indicates that a linear relation between losses and storage is probably incorrect for ephemeral channels.

From the Proceedings of the 1977 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 15-16, 1977, Las Vegas, Nevada / Thunderstorms produce most of the annual rainfall and almost all runoff from arid and semiarid rangelands in the southwest U.S. A model was developed to be used for predicting runoff in river basins, flood plane zonings, estimating flood damage, erosion, and sediment transport, and estimating precipitation available for forage growth. This rainfall occurrence model has three parameters: elevation, latitude and longitude, and takes into account rainfall occurrence in 22 stations located in Arizona and New Mexico. From these variables, mathematical equations were developed in an effort to predict point rainfall occurrence. Estimates of the number of seasonal occurrences were used as a check of the equations within the model.