Organizations responsible for managing commercial fisheries conduct annual stock assessments to monitor stock and, in principle, reduce the risk of overexploitation. These are fundamental to setting the total allowable catch for the upcoming fishing year. While there have been many attempts to estimate uncertainty associated with certain components and estimates of stock assessments, to date there has been no systematic assessment of their forecasted predicted value. Using data from annual stock assessments from 65 commercial fisheries around the world, estimates were obtained of both predicted (from the previous year) and observed (in the current year) catch-at-age. When comparing observed (actual) and predicted catch-at-age for a given stock, estimates were obtained of the predictive power of next-season forecasts. Using other attributes of the fishery and the stock (biological (e.g. life history) and management (e.g. assessment model employed)), empirical models were constructed that attempt to determine variability in predictive power among stocks. It was observed that, on average, within-year predictive powers (age-series within time samples) were higher than year over year predictive powers (time-series within age samples). While focusing on time-series within age, it was observed that change over the period of record (in natural mortality rate, assessment model employed, etc.) reduced predictive power; while for age-series within time, it was shown that cumulative landings reduced predictive power. This study represents one of the first attempts to quantify systematically the predictive power of fisheries stock assessment models.

In this study, we consider the mechanism design problem for the optimal allocation of fishing quotas at different total allowable catch (TAC) levels. An age-structured fish population model is employed. Fishing technologies are embedded in the economic model as a key determinant. As a result, we showed that the quota allocation mechanism is important to minimize the impact of fishing on total fish biomass or achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Moreover, we indicated technology-based optimality conditions for allocation of quotas at different TAC levels, which minimize the impact of fishing on total fish biomass or enable us to achieve MSY. Under the consideration that the fishermen fulfill their remaining quotas through capturing untargeted (less revenue-generating) fish after the targeted fish population is fully caught, the fix ratio of the catch of targeted fish to untargeted fish is not valid anymore. Concordantly, we indicated technology-based optimal quota levels, including the interior solutions. In the EU, TACs are distributed among states according to the principle of &lsquo / relative stability&rsquo / which prescribes that the fishing quotas should be allocated based on historical catches of the EU states. In this context, rather than allocating the quotas based on historical catches, our main suggestion is that the structure of the fishing industry should be considered for allocation of quotas to provide the sustainability of EU fisheries and achieve responsible and effective management of the fishing industry in the EU.

<p>The study begins with a historical background over the fisheries development in North America and in the Baltic Sea area in Finland and Sweden. As we can see the fisheries development depends on the interaction between ecology, state of production, politic and also social factors. In Sweden the fishery politic has changed over the period of the study. In the 1970: s the main politic focus was on the fisheries progress, expansion and rationalization. The State in Sweden took a vast part in this development and gave economic support. In the 1980: s the fishery politic in Sweden started to change and the environmental politics began to enter the fishery politic. The environmental problems in the Baltic Sea were given attention and it was a great anxiety over the eutrophication. In the 1980: s the codpopulation declined and with them the catches declined. The conflict over the White zone 1978-1988 between Former Soviet Union and Sweden resulted in a plunder fishery in the area east of Bornholm. This plunder fishery effected the cod population enormous and the effect has continued to the late 1990: s. </p><p>In 1995 Sweden joined the European Union and the common fishery politic replaced the Swedish fishery politic. </p><p>The system with TAC (Total Allowable Catch) is central in the common politic and it is used to control the cod catches. But the problem is that the TAC -volume has been higher than the codpopulation could stand. Despite the politic goal in Sweden and EU to preserve the codpopulation in the Baltic Sea, the codpopulation has continued to decline. The reason to this politic failure is that the limit of the ecology has been overseen. Instead, the economic and social values have been dominating the politic and together with a to weak control of the catches and environmental problems in the Baltic Sea, the situation for the cod has been devastating.</p>

The study begins with a historical background over the fisheries development in North America and in the Baltic Sea area in Finland and Sweden. As we can see the fisheries development depends on the interaction between ecology, state of production, politic and also social factors. In Sweden the fishery politic has changed over the period of the study. In the 1970: s the main politic focus was on the fisheries progress, expansion and rationalization. The State in Sweden took a vast part in this development and gave economic support. In the 1980: s the fishery politic in Sweden started to change and the environmental politics began to enter the fishery politic. The environmental problems in the Baltic Sea were given attention and it was a great anxiety over the eutrophication. In the 1980: s the codpopulation declined and with them the catches declined. The conflict over the White zone 1978-1988 between Former Soviet Union and Sweden resulted in a plunder fishery in the area east of Bornholm. This plunder fishery effected the cod population enormous and the effect has continued to the late 1990: s. In 1995 Sweden joined the European Union and the common fishery politic replaced the Swedish fishery politic. The system with TAC (Total Allowable Catch) is central in the common politic and it is used to control the cod catches. But the problem is that the TAC -volume has been higher than the codpopulation could stand. Despite the politic goal in Sweden and EU to preserve the codpopulation in the Baltic Sea, the codpopulation has continued to decline. The reason to this politic failure is that the limit of the ecology has been overseen. Instead, the economic and social values have been dominating the politic and together with a to weak control of the catches and environmental problems in the Baltic Sea, the situation for the cod has been devastating.

The Peruvian anchoveta fishery was for nearly 60 years characterized by the unsustainable dynamics of open access resource pools. This thesis investigates whether the 2009 Peruvian Legislative Decree 1084 on Individual Vessel Quotas (IVQ's) is an effective response to the industrial overcapacity and race-to-fish problems that threatened the environment before its implementation. It employs Common-Pool Resource theory to assess the impact of the new IVQ scheme on collective dynamics, and Ribot and Peluso's access theory (2009) to elucidate evolving power relations in the fishery. In this framework, DL1084 is evaluated as a regulatory instrument, as a lens on fisheries governance in Peru, and as a source of insight into how environmental impact serves in developing regulations of natural resource exploitation. A triangulated mixed-method design is employed: (1) a two-stream literature review of fisheries management and of the fishery's political ecology; (2) a quantitative analysis of daily state-published landings reports; and (3) seven in-depth intensive interviews with key actors in the fishery, conducted in Peru over two field-trips of approximately 2 months in total. Results indicate that although IVQ's supported existing trends towards large-scale economic efficiency and altered extreme competitive strategies previously associated with open access, fishing companies have built larger ships, favour bigger catches and still concentrate fishing effort around a given annual peak. Meanwhile, capacity has again increased in the unregulated artisanal fishery sector. DL1084 appears to reflect a broader process of growing private sector involvement in managing the fishery, made official by its institutionalization of market self-regulation. Ultimately, it evidences deep structure and capacity limitations in the state's ability to govern marine resources. The law was nevertheless seen as a landmark for the environmental legal process in Peru and an opportunity for reform. This thesis suggests that studying such legislations can provide insight into state identity and the evolving relationship between a nation and its geography. / Durante casi 60 años, la pesquería peruana de anchoveta estaba caracterizada por las dinámicas insostenibles de la explotación de recursos de propiedad común en situación de acceso abierto. Esta tesis investiga si el Decreto Legislativo Peruano 1084 (DL1084) sobre Límites Máximos de Captura por Embarcación (LMCE) es una respuesta efectiva a los problemas de sobrecapacidad industrial y de carrera por el recurso que amenazaban el ambiente antes de su aplicación en 2009. Se basa en la teoría de los Recursos de Propiedad Común (Common-Pool Resource theory) para evaluar el impacto del nuevo modelo de gestión por LMCE sobre las dinámicas colectivas, y en la teoría del Acceso de Ribot y Peluso (2009) para trazar la evolución de las relaciones de poder en la pesquería. En este marco, el DL1084 es evaluado como herramienta regulatoria, como lente sobre la gobernanza pesquera en el Perú y como reflejo del proceso por el cual el impacto ambiental sirve como base para el desarrollo de regulaciones sobre el acceso a recursos naturales. Sigue un diseño triangulado de métodos combinados: (1) una revisión de literatura en dos ramas de la gestión de pesquería como campo general y de la ecología política de la pesquería de anchoveta; (2) un análisis cuantitativo de los informes diarios de desembarques publicados por el estado (IMARPE); y (3) siete entrevistas intensivas de fondo con actores claves en la pesquería, realizadas en Perú durante dos visitas de aproximadamente dos meses en total. Los resultados indican que a pesar de que los LMCE soportaron una tendencia existente hacia una eficiencia económica de mayor escala y alteraron las estrategias competitivas extremas asociadas con el acceso abierto, las empresas pesqueras han construido embarcaciones más grandes, favorecen capturas de mayor tamaño y todavía concentran su esfuerzo pesquero alrededor de un pico anual de abundancia. En paralelo, ha aumentado la capacidad de captura en el sector artesanal, el cual no cuenta con límites de captura. El DL1084 aparece como parte de un proceso más general de creciente involucramiento del sector privado en el manejo de la pesquería, haciéndolo oficial por su misma institucionalización de la autorregulación del mercado. Por último, pone en evidencia profundas limitaciones de estructura y de capacidad en el estado en cuanto a cómo gobierna los recursos marinos. La ley ha sin embargo sido vista como un precedente importante para el proceso legislativo ambiental en el Perú así como una oportunidad para impulsar otras reformas. Esta tesis sugiere que el estudio de tales legislaciones puede ofrecer una mirada sobre los procesos de formación de la identidad de un estado y sobre la evolución de la relación entre una nación y su geografía.