This study uses Transition Analysis on the Mimbres skeletal remains of the NAN Ranch Ruin to provide a more complete picture of its demography. Previous attempts to reconstruct the demographic structure of prehistoric populations have been hindered by aging methods that provide biased age distribution. Early methods had a tendency to produce age distribution similar to that of the reference sample that was used to create them. In addition, they often overlooked sexual dimorphism and left out the senescent portion of the population which in turns produced inaccurate population structures. Transition Analysis is a multifactorial approach to estimate the age-at-death of adult skeletons that focuses on the cranium, the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium. The method relies heavily on the Bayesian probability that a given trait or a given combination of traits is displayed at a given age, it recognizes sexual dimorphism, performs well on fragmentary skeletons and allows for the age estimation of older individuals. The NAN Ranch Ruin sample consists of over 240 individuals, including 185 from the Classic Period. A previous study focused on the 81 individuals from the Classic period that were collected during the first five years of excavations. Following age estimation of adult skeleton I constructed composite abridged life tables. For the Classic Period, I found a high infant mortality rate (47%) and low life expectancy at birth (21.14 years) as expected. However, this analysis produced different mortality patterns than older demographic studies, where mid adult mortality increases only slightly, decreases in late adulthood (40-55 years old) and increases again in senescence (55-80 years old), instead of increasing steadily in adulthood to culminate at age 50. This difference is a consequence of the aging methods that have been used to analyze other southwestern prehistoric samples. Finally, while I was not able to confirm different mortality patterns between males and females, I found that people from the east roomblock enjoyed greater longevity than those from the south roomblock, though the difference is not statistically significant.

Uncertainty surrounds the future evolution of key factors affecting the attractiveness of various nuclear fuel cycles, rendering the concept of a unique optimal fuel cycle transition strategy invalid. This work applies decision-making under uncertainty to fuel cycle transition analysis, demonstrating a new, systematic methodology for choosing flexible, adaptable hedging strategies that yield middle-of-the-road results until uncertainties are resolved. A case study involving transition from the current once-through light water reactor (LWR) fuel cycle to one relying on continuous recycle in fast reactors (FRs) is cast as a no-data decision problem. The transition is subject to uncertainty in the cost of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW) disposal in a geologic repository, slated to open some years into the future. Following the repository open date, the cost of SNF and HLW disposal is made known, and may take on one of five possible values. Strategies for the transition are enumerated and simulated using VEGAS, a systems model of the nuclear fuel cycle that solves for its material balance and applies input cost data to calculate the associated annual levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Perfect information strategies are found using the lowest average, maximum, and integrated LCOE objective functions. The loss in savings for following a strategy other than the perfect information strategy is the “regret” which is calculated by evaluating the performance of each strategy for every end-state. Hedging strategies are then selected by either minimizing the maximum or the expected regret. Generally, the optimal hedging strategy identified using the decision methodology suggests a partial transition to a closed fuel cycle prior to the repository open date. Once the repository opens, the transition may be abandoned or accelerated depending on which disposal cost outcome is realized. The lowest average and integrated LCOE objective functions perform similarly; however, the lowest maximum LCOE objective function appears overly sensitive to aberrations in the annual LCOE that arise due to idle reprocessing capacity. The minimax regret choice criterion is shown to be more conservative than the lowest expected regret choice criterion, as it acts to hedge against the worst-case outcome. By following a hedging strategy, agents may alter their fuel cycle strategy more readily once uncertainties are resolved. This results since hedging strategies provide flexibility in the nuclear fuel cycle, preserving what options exist. To this end, the work presented here may provide guidance for agent-based, behavioral modeling in fuel cycle simulators, as well as decision-making in real world applications. / text

This study uses latent class analysis and latent transition analysis to model and compare patterns of offending over time for males and females by: (1) identifying qualitative dimensions of offending; (2) modeling how patterns of offending change over time; and (3) exploring factors related to patterns of offending. This is a secondary analysis of data from the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transition and Crime, a longitudinal study consisting of a cohort of about 4,000 young people from secondary schools in the City of Edinburgh who responded to questionnaires administered between 1988 and 2001, when they were about 12, 13, 14, and 15 years old. Previous studies of offending have used trajectory modeling to explore the course of offending from onset to termination, but the models are generally based on a count of types of offences aggregated across individuals over time, making it difficult to determine whether individuals exhibit more versatility or specialization in offending or switch offences from one point in time to another. In addition, most of the studies on patterns of offending have focused primarily on males. An understanding of patterns of offending over time for both males and females is important for the design and selection of developmentally appropriate prevention/treatment strategies. The present study adds to the literature by (1) further exploring the small and understudied literature on offence transitions; (2) examining more closely the development of female offending separately from and in relation to male offending; and (3) exploring a range of factors (criminogenic and non-criminogenic) related to the development of offending for both males and females. While the same number of qualitative dimensions (latent classes) characterised male and female offending in this study, there were some structural differences. There was also evidence of shifts in the qualitative dimensions for males and females over time. Finally, those factors classified as criminogenic were more likely to differentiate among the latent classes than those classified as non-criminogenic.

Due to the strong genetic component of dental development, research has shown that mineralization patterns of the human dentition are relatively buffered against environmental influences that normally affect bone growth and development. It is because of this resistance to environmental factors and the continuous growth of the permanent dentition throughout childhood and adolescence that the evaluation of dental development patterns has become the preferred method of age estimation in living and deceased children. Researchers (Harris and Mckee 1990; Tompkins 1996; Blankenship et al. 2007; Kasper et al. 2009) have suggested that the timing of dental development varies by ancestral descent and geographic populations. However, further evaluations of these perceived differences in the timing of dental development among populations are necessary as classical statistical methods result in age estimations that are biased toward the age structure of the reference population. However, the Bayesian approach is beneficial since it incorporates relevant prior knowledge into the analysis and formalizes the relationship between assumptions and conclusions (Buck et al. 1996). Therefore, the purpose of this research is to incorporate methods in Bayesian analysis to compare the timing of dental development between two contemporary populations of the Southeastern United States, as well as test the accuracy of dental development age parameters devised by Moorrees et al. (1963) on a contemporary Florida Population. For this study, 51 panoramic radiographs of individuals from a contemporary Florida population ranging in age from 7.7-20.4 years were reviewed. Statistical analyses incorporated a Bayesian approach to compare the timing of dental development for individuals comprising the contemporary Florida sample with the timing of dental development for a contemporary Middle Tennessee population by utilizing the age structure of the Middle Tennessee population as informed prior knowledge, otherwise referred to as an informed prior. Transition distributions for age, given stage of dental development, were also modeled for individuals comprising the contemporary Florida sample. The accurate observation and comparison of probability density distributions for age can serve as a noninvasive method for evaluating the probability of whether or not an unknown individual is a particular age, given the stage of dental development. Results of this research indicate that there is a consistent underestimation of age for individuals comprising the contemporary Florida population when the age structure of the Middle Tennessee population is utilized as an informed prior. Additionally, the results of this thesis indicate that there is a consistent underestimation of age when utilizing age parameters of Moorrees et al. (1963) for the estimation of age for individuals from a contemporary Florida population. By incorporating a Bayesian approach to compare two contemporary populations of the Southeastern United States, a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between age and stage of dental development can be achieved. Therefore, the results of this thesis support Bayesian analysis as an appropriate method of evaluating perceived differences in the timing of dental development between contemporary populations. Furthermore, the results of this research are beneficial to the field of forensic anthropology as the observation of advanced stages of molar development utilizing panoramic radiographs serves as a noninvasive method in estimating age for unknown juveniles and young adults, and can also assist courts within the United States in determining whether or not an individual is legally considered a minor or an adult.

This study uses latent class analysis and latent transition analysis to model and compare patterns of offending over time for males and females by: (1) identifying qualitative dimensions of offending; (2) modeling how patterns of offending change over time; and (3) exploring factors related to patterns of offending. This is a secondary analysis of data from the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transition and Crime, a longitudinal study consisting of a cohort of about 4,000 young people from secondary schools in the City of Edinburgh who responded to questionnaires administered between 1988 and 2001, when they were about 12, 13, 14, and 15 years old. Previous studies of offending have used trajectory modeling to explore the course of offending from onset to termination, but the models are generally based on a count of types of offences aggregated across individuals over time, making it difficult to determine whether individuals exhibit more versatility or specialization in offending or switch offences from one point in time to another. In addition, most of the studies on patterns of offending have focused primarily on males. An understanding of patterns of offending over time for both males and females is important for the design and selection of developmentally appropriate prevention/treatment strategies. The present study adds to the literature by (1) further exploring the small and understudied literature on offence transitions; (2) examining more closely the development of female offending separately from and in relation to male offending; and (3) exploring a range of factors (criminogenic and non-criminogenic) related to the development of offending for both males and females. While the same number of qualitative dimensions (latent classes) characterised male and female offending in this study, there were some structural differences. There was also evidence of shifts in the qualitative dimensions for males and females over time. Finally, those factors classified as criminogenic were more likely to differentiate among the latent classes than those classified as non-criminogenic.

Forensic anthropologists and taphonomists are often tasked with interpreting the sequence of events from death through decomposition to skeletonisation. Discovery of burnt bone often evokes questions as to the condition of the body prior to the burn event. The purpose of this study was to evaluate features of thermal damage on bones in relationship to the condition of the bone (dry/wet) and progression of decomposition. Twenty-five pigs in various stages of decomposition (fresh, early, advanced, early & late skeletonisation) were exposed to fire for 30 minutes. The skeletal elements were scored and features included: colour change (unaltered, charred, calcined), brown and heat borders, heat lines, delineation, greasy bone, joint shielding, predictable and minimal cracking, delamination and heatinduced fractures. Colour changes were scored according to a ranked percentage scale (0 – 3) and the remaining traits as absent or present (0/1). Cohen’s Kappa statistics evaluated intraand interobserver error. Density plots and frequency distributions were constructed and multiple regression (categorical variables) and transition analysis were employed. The majority (8) of the 13 traits displayed potential to predict decomposition stage from burned remains. An increase in calcined and charred bone occurred synchronously with an advancement in decomposition. The organic composition of bone and presence of flesh affect the characteristics features of burned bone. Greasy bone occurred most often in the early/fresh stages (fleshed bone). Heat borders, heat lines, delineation, joint shielding, predictable and minimal cracking were associated with wet tissue/bone; whereas brown burn/borders, delamination and other heat-induced fractures were associated with early and late skeletonisation. No statistically significant differences were noted among observers for the majority of the traits except for predictable and minimal cracking and heat-induced fractures in the cranium. Heat-induced changes may assist in estimating decomposition stage from unknown, burnt remains and thereby aid in a providing an indication as to the condition of the bone prior to the burn event. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2014 / Anatomy / unrestricted

Transition analysis transforms skeletal traits with an invariant, unidirectional series of stages into a likelihood function with a maximum likelihood value and a 95% confidence interval. Boldsen et al. used transition analysis to develop an adult age estimation method employing components of the cranial sutures, pubic symphysis and ilial portion of the sacroiliac joint, used either in combination or individually. This validation study aimed to use the 36 transition analysis numerical, categorical scores for the anatomical features in conjunction with the ADBOU computer program to assess the accuracy and precision of the age estimates for 149 black individuals from the Pretoria Bone Collection. In addition, the effect of observer variability in scoring of these traits was assessed. Six age estimations were generated by the ADBOU computer program using 1) the cranial sutures only, 2) the pubic symphysis only, 3) the auricular surface of the ilium only, 4) all three features combined, 5) all three features combined and modified by a forensic prior distribution and 6) all three features combined and modified by an archaeological prior distribution. The six point estimate categories, calculated from the maximum likelihood values, were evaluated for accuracy using mean absolute values. The 95% confidence intervals were evaluated for range width and accuracy. Cohen’s Kappa statistics were used to analyse repeatability of the scoring procedure through inter- and intra-observer agreement and Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA statistics to determine the effect of observer differences on the final age estimates. The usefulness of the age ranges were diminished by large widths encompassing up to 95 years. The accuracy for the point estimates fared better for the combined skeletal indicators and overall accuracy was improved by using the archaeological prior distribution. The archaeological prior distribution was also responsible for narrowing the age ranges, especially in the older ages (over 70 years). Age estimates did not differ significantly when using inter- and intra-observer scores, but experience with the method did seem to improve results. Overall, age ranges were too wide, but accuracy could potentially be improved by adding more skeletal components to the method and using a population-specific prior distribution. The method would need considerable adjustments to make it usable in a South African setting. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / tm2015 / Anatomy / MSc / Unrestricted

Thesis advisor: Jacqueline V. Lerner / Young people identifying as Black, Latino/a/x, Hispanic, Asian, and other races and ethnicities that are minoritized and marginalized have constrained opportunities for positive development in the United States due to oppression grounded in white supremacy (NASEM, 2019). Importantly, youth of color engage in critical consciousness: interrogating and dismantling systems of oppression (Freire, 1970/2016). My aim was to illuminate the variation within youth of color in their development of critical consciousness, and to consider the implications for their overall development as viewed from a positive youth development perspective (Lerner et al., 2015). Associations between patterns of critical consciousness development and two variables measuring youths’ perceptions of their school context were examined. Using latent profile transition analysis, I explored variation among a sample of youth of color (n = 335) in cognitive, socioemotional, and behavioral processes of critical consciousness (Diemer et al., 2016; Watts et al., 2011) over a short longitudinal period. The mean age was fourteen at time 1 (which took place in 2016) and fifteen at time 2. Group-differential patterns in critical consciousness development were related to contribution—supporting the development of self and giving back to community; engagement in risk and problem behaviors; and emotional problems. Associations between patterns of critical consciousness development and (1) classroom discussions about social justice and (2) open classroom climate were estimated. Multiple patterns of engagement with critical consciousness were identified. Some youth shifted in their patterns of critical consciousness over time. Many participants reported a pattern of low engagement in multiple components of critical consciousness across both time points; higher classroom discussions about social justice were associated with a lower likelihood of youth following this pattern. These youth concurrently reported low contribution. Young people who sustained high levels across all dimensions of critical consciousness had high levels of emotional problems and risk and problem behaviors. Findings indicate broad involvement in critical consciousness can be associated with negative outcomes. Nevertheless, young people who were participating less in critical consciousness may struggle to promote positive development within themselves and their contexts through contribution. Implications for supporting the thriving of youth of color are discussed. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education. / Discipline: Counseling, Developmental and Educational Psychology.

Thesis advisor: Scott C. Seider / Engagement in sociopolitical activism, such as protesting, has important implications for youth of color and for the communities in which they live (Ballard & Ozer, 2016; Ginwright, 2010; Hope & Spencer, 2017). Critical Consciousness (CC; Freire, 1970/1998; Watts et al., 2011) and Youth Sociopolitical Development Theory (Youth SPD; Watts & Flanagan, 2007) are two prominent frameworks for investigating sociopolitical activism among youth of color. Although both frameworks position motivation as one of the key factors influencing youth activism, motivation is narrowly defined as a single construct—one’s sense of efficacy to effect change. Using motivation constructs from two established motivation frameworks, Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 2008; Ryan & Deci, 2000) and Regulatory Focus Theory (RFT; Higgins, 1997), this dissertation investigated the multidimensional nature of motivation in relation to Black and Latinx adolescents’ commitment to activism. Drawing from a longitudinal data set examining Black and Latinx adolescents’ civic development over four years of high school (N = 733), I used group differential approaches (latent profile analysis, latent profile transition analysis, and latent profile moderation) to (a) identify distinct combinations of motivations among Black and Latinx high school students in ninth, tenth, and twelfth grade, (b) assess whether and the extent to which adolescents changed profile membership across high school, (c) examine motivation profiles in tenth grade as predictors of commitment to activism in twelfth grade, and (d) examine motivation profiles in tenth grade as moderators of the relation between adolescents’ analysis of social problems in tenth grade and their commitment to activism addressing these problems in twelfth grade (controlling for their initial commitment to activism). I identified two motivation profiles in ninth grade, four motivation profiles in tenth grade, and four motivation profiles in twelfth grade. At both tenth and twelfth grade, I named the motivation profiles: “Low Motivation,” “High Motivation,” “Moderate Motivation, Low Autonomy,” and “Moderate Motivation, High Autonomy.” At both time points, the “Low Motivation” profile comprised the smallest proportion of the sample and the “Moderate Motivation, High Autonomy” profile comprised the largest proportion of the sample. Most youth shifted to a different motivation profile over time. Adolescents in the “High Motivation” profile at the end of tenth grade reported the highest average commitment to activism at the end of twelfth grade; however, this number was only statistically significantly higher than the “Moderate Motivation, Low Autonomy” profile. Contrary to expectations, youths’ social analysis in tenth grade was not predictive of their commitment to activism in twelfth grade; thus, there was no latent profile moderation in relation to social analysis and commitment to activism. Instead, I did find evidence that motivation profile membership moderated the relation between commitment to activism at the end of tenth grade on commitment to activism at the end of twelfth grade. Overall, results suggest that adolescents’ motivation is multidimensional and incredibly dynamic. Future CC/Youth SPD research should consider investigating a more complete set of established motivation constructs in relation to youths’ sociopolitical development. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2022. / Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education. / Discipline: Counseling, Developmental and Educational Psychology.

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