This study investigates the relevance of dynamic traffic assignment models under uncertainty. In the last years researchers have dealt with advanced traffic control systems since road provision is not regarded as a proper solution to relieve congestion. Dynamic assignment which is an essential component of investment planning is regarded as a new research area in the field of urban transportation. In this study the performance of dynamic traffic assignment method, which incorporates time dependent flow, is compared with that of static model. Research outcomes showed that dynamic assignment method provides more reliable outcomes in predicting traffic flow / therefore its solution algorithm is integrated to conventional four staged model. Literature survey showed that researches have hot provided an appropriate framework for transforming networks. This study investigates travel demand variations in a dynamic city and discuses possible strategies to respond dynamic and uncertain properties of individuals&rsquo / travel behavior. Research findings showed that both external and internal uncertainties have significant influences on reliability of the model. Recommended procedure aims reducing uncertainty in order to improve reliability of model. Finally, the relevancy of the problem and the applicability of recently developed methods are discussed in Ankara case.

After World War II, automobile use expanded rapidly in the developed countries. As a result, travel pattern changed entirely and automobile has become the dominant form of transport in cities. As a result, the city has been shaped and sized in response to automobile needs. Such increase caused traffic problems in the Central Business Districts and surrounding areas. The problems of traffic congestion and pedestrian circulation have become an important issue in the whole city. As traffic problems have grown in developed cities, they had to be engaged in managing travel demand of people in order to provide mobility and access with reference to the advancing principles of sustainability. In this scope, this study shows the need of travel demand management to create a sustainable transport system. As a case, this study will evaluate the transport problems of Ankara and the place of the city in the urban transport policy process. At this point, transport problems and the transformation of road network and their impacts on the city will be examined in four periods. As a conclusion, urban transportation strategies needed for creating a sustainable transport system are overviewed for the city of Ankara.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Cover title. "April 2006." Includes bibliographical references.

abstract: Rapid developments are occurring in the arena of activity-based microsimulation models. Advances in computational power, econometric methodologies and data collection have all contributed to the development of microsimulation tools for planning applications. There has also been interest in modeling child daily activity-travel patterns and their influence on those of adults in the household using activity-based microsimulation tools. It is conceivable that most of the children are largely dependent on adults for their activity engagement and travel needs and hence would have considerable influence on the activity-travel schedules of adult members in the household. In this context, a detailed comparison of various activity-travel characteristics of adults in households with and without children is made using the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. The analysis is used to quantify and decipher the nature of the impact of activities of children on the daily activity-travel patterns of adults. It is found that adults in households with children make a significantly higher proportion of high occupancy vehicle (HOV) trips and lower proportion of single occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips when compared to those in households without children. They also engage in more serve passenger activities and fewer personal business, shopping and social activities. A framework for modeling activities and travel of dependent children is proposed. The framework consists of six sub-models to simulate the choice of going to school/pre-school on a travel day, the dependency status of the child, the activity type, the destination, the activity duration, and the joint activity engagement with an accompanying adult. Econometric formulations such as binary probit and multinomial logit are used to obtain behaviorally intuitive models that predict children's activity skeletons. The model framework is tested using a 5% sample of a synthetic population of children for Maricopa County, Arizona and the resulting patterns are validated against those found in NHTS data. Microsimulation of these dependencies of children can be used to constrain the adult daily activity schedules. The deployment of this framework prior to the simulation of adult non-mandatory activities is expected to significantly enhance the representation of the interactions between children and adults in activity-based microsimulation models. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2010

A contínua ampliação da infraestrutura viária já se provou ineficaz em resolver os problemas de congestionamento nos grandes centros urbanos e uma solução não sustentável tendo em vista os altos investimentos envolvidos. Em contraposição ao tradicional aumento da capacidade viária, surge a Gestão da Demanda de Viagens (GDV). Uma das medidas englobadas pela GDV é a mobilidade corporativa que visa a promover o uso de opções de transporte mais sustentáveis e eficientes nos deslocamentos casa-trabalho das pessoas. Aproximadamente 50% dos deslocamentos diários nas cidades brasileiras ocorrem por motivo de trabalho. Por isso organizações públicas e privadas desempenham um papel fundamental em questões atreladas ao transporte. Embora não controlem a forma como seus funcionários vão ao trabalho, as organizações, por muitas vezes, podem estimular a mudança de hábitos de deslocamento ao prover informações e incentivos para isso. Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar a aplicabilidade da adoção de estratégias de mobilidade corporativa em organizações situadas no Brasil. Em um primeiro momento, apresenta-se mais profundamente o conceito, os benefícios e as medidas de mobilidade corporativa que podem ser implementadas. A seguir, são comparados e analisados diferentes métodos existentes para a elaboração de planos de mobilidade corporativa. Propõe-se um novo método adaptado à realidade local composto por sete passos que totalizam 26 atividades que devem ser cumpridas para a construção de um plano bem-sucedido. Realiza-se uma pesquisa-ação em um complexo administrativo que reúne 17 mil funcionários e está localizado a 20 km do centro da cidade. Investiga-se o padrão de deslocamento casa-trabalho dos funcionários da organização e são analisadas que medidas de mobilidade corporativa poderiam ser adotadas para estimular o transporte sustentável entre os funcionários deste local. / The continuous expansion of road infrastructure has proven to be ineffective in solving the problem of congestion in large urban areas. It is also an unsustainable solution due to the high investments involved. Instead of increasing road capacity, Travel Demand Management (TDM) emerges as an alternative to deal with the problem. One of TDM’s measures is corporate mobility, which aims to promote more sustainable and efficient transport options for commuting to work. Approximately 50% of daily trips in Brazilian cities are work related. Therefore public and private organizations play a key role in issues related to transportation. Although they do not control how employees commute to work, organizations have the ability to stimulate travel behavior change by providing information and incentives. This study aims to verify the applicability of the adoption of corporate mobility strategies in organizations located in Brazil. At first, a more in depth concept is explained in addition to the benefits and corporate mobility measures that can be implemented. Then, we compare and analyze different existing methods for the construction of corporate mobility plans. We propose a new method based on the local context. The method is composed by seven steps totalizing 26 activities which must be followed for developing of a successful plan. Finally, we describe the application of the method that was carried out in an Administrative Center which gathers 17 thousand employees and is located 20 km away from the city center. We investigate employees’ commute patterns and analyze which corporate mobility measures could be implemented to promote a more sustainable commute pattern to work.

This study utilized both quantitative and qualitative methods to investigate different actors and layers of policy, implementation, and reception of pro-environmental Travel Demand Management policy and measures in Umeå. One initiative by Upab (Umeå Parkering AB) and Umeå municipality, Grönt parkeringsköp, which means moving parking spaces from the central area of Umeå and replacing them with facilities that promote sustainable travel, was investigated more thoroughly. The data was collected through a manually distributed survey in three properties that have implemented Grönt parkeringsköp, as well as through interviews with property owners. Utilizing discourse analysis, thematic analysis as well as OLS-regressions, the results have shown that the comprehensive plan of Umeå puts emphasis on sustainable growth to 200 000 inhabitants, as well as minimising car traffic in the central areas of town, mainly through densification of already built-up areas. The property owners stated several motives to implement such policies, including ecological, financial as well as brandstrengthening benefits. Attitudes amongst survey respondents are generally positive towards measures that improve conditions for bicycle users, and more negative towards push-measures. There are different predictors for attitudes and perceived importance of Travel Demand Management measures, including altruism and self-interest. The use of the installed measures through Grönt parkeringsköp however appear to be limited, possibly due to a lack of information.

A contínua ampliação da infraestrutura viária já se provou ineficaz em resolver os problemas de congestionamento nos grandes centros urbanos e uma solução não sustentável tendo em vista os altos investimentos envolvidos. Em contraposição ao tradicional aumento da capacidade viária, surge a Gestão da Demanda de Viagens (GDV). Uma das medidas englobadas pela GDV é a mobilidade corporativa que visa a promover o uso de opções de transporte mais sustentáveis e eficientes nos deslocamentos casa-trabalho das pessoas. Aproximadamente 50% dos deslocamentos diários nas cidades brasileiras ocorrem por motivo de trabalho. Por isso organizações públicas e privadas desempenham um papel fundamental em questões atreladas ao transporte. Embora não controlem a forma como seus funcionários vão ao trabalho, as organizações, por muitas vezes, podem estimular a mudança de hábitos de deslocamento ao prover informações e incentivos para isso. Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar a aplicabilidade da adoção de estratégias de mobilidade corporativa em organizações situadas no Brasil. Em um primeiro momento, apresenta-se mais profundamente o conceito, os benefícios e as medidas de mobilidade corporativa que podem ser implementadas. A seguir, são comparados e analisados diferentes métodos existentes para a elaboração de planos de mobilidade corporativa. Propõe-se um novo método adaptado à realidade local composto por sete passos que totalizam 26 atividades que devem ser cumpridas para a construção de um plano bem-sucedido. Realiza-se uma pesquisa-ação em um complexo administrativo que reúne 17 mil funcionários e está localizado a 20 km do centro da cidade. Investiga-se o padrão de deslocamento casa-trabalho dos funcionários da organização e são analisadas que medidas de mobilidade corporativa poderiam ser adotadas para estimular o transporte sustentável entre os funcionários deste local. / The continuous expansion of road infrastructure has proven to be ineffective in solving the problem of congestion in large urban areas. It is also an unsustainable solution due to the high investments involved. Instead of increasing road capacity, Travel Demand Management (TDM) emerges as an alternative to deal with the problem. One of TDM’s measures is corporate mobility, which aims to promote more sustainable and efficient transport options for commuting to work. Approximately 50% of daily trips in Brazilian cities are work related. Therefore public and private organizations play a key role in issues related to transportation. Although they do not control how employees commute to work, organizations have the ability to stimulate travel behavior change by providing information and incentives. This study aims to verify the applicability of the adoption of corporate mobility strategies in organizations located in Brazil. At first, a more in depth concept is explained in addition to the benefits and corporate mobility measures that can be implemented. Then, we compare and analyze different existing methods for the construction of corporate mobility plans. We propose a new method based on the local context. The method is composed by seven steps totalizing 26 activities which must be followed for developing of a successful plan. Finally, we describe the application of the method that was carried out in an Administrative Center which gathers 17 thousand employees and is located 20 km away from the city center. We investigate employees’ commute patterns and analyze which corporate mobility measures could be implemented to promote a more sustainable commute pattern to work.

O presente estudo procura identificar grupos homogêneos de indivíduos quanto aos padrões de seqüências de atividades diárias que estes realizam. As atividades são caracterizadas por múltiplos atributos, fazendo com que as seqüências sejam multidimensionais. Como atributos, ou características, são considerados a natureza da atividade realizada, ou motivo da viagem, e o período de realização da mesma, ambos separados em categorias. É estudado o efeito da inclusão da forma de acesso à atividade, ou modo de viagem, como uma terceira dimensão. Este atributo, entretanto, dados os resultados obtidos, não é utilizado nas análises finais. É também considerada a adoção de diferentes categorizações para a dimensão motivo. São usados dados da pesquisa Origem e Destino realizada em 1997, na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. No trabalho são considerados os indivíduos com 12 anos ou mais, com pelo menos duas viagens diárias e com seqüência de viagens iniciada e terminada em sua residência, sem inconsistências internas. O número de indivíduos que atende a estes critérios é 49.616. A classificação, ou agrupamento, das seqüências de atividades em classes ou grupos é feita considerando uma medida de distância ou dissimilaridade calculada entre as seqüências, que é baseada no esforço necessário para igualá-las. Esta medida é chamada de OT-MDSAM (uni-dimensional Optimum Trajectories-based MultiDimensional Sequence Alignment Method). A partir da matriz de dissimilaridades é executado um processo estatístico de agrupamento hierárquico aglomerativo usando o Método de Ward. Os grupos de seqüências formados são analisados considerando características das próprias seqüências e atributos sóciodemográficas e econômicas dos indivíduos que os compõem, e usados em um modelo de segmentação do tipo árvore de decisão, usando o CHAID (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector). Resultados indicam que os grupos formados são bastante homogêneos quanto aos padrões de seqüências de atividades que representam e aos indivíduos associados a eles. / The main objective of the dissertation is to identify homogeneous groups of individuals, with regard to the daily activity/travel sequences performed in a weekday. Activities are characterized by multiple attributes, thus generating mutidimensional seguences. In this study, the nature of the activity (travel purpose) and the starting period of engagement in the activity (ending time of a trip) were the dimensions considered in the characterization of activities. Access mode to the activity was also considered as a third dimension, but the results had led to the decision not to include it in the final analysis. Alternative categorizations of the activity nature dimension were also studied, that resulted in further disaggregation than adopted in previous analyses of the same data. The study used data from the 1997 Origin-Destination household survey of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. The analysis considered all individuals aged 12 or over that conducted two or more trips (starting and ending at home) on the survey day, resulting in a sample of 49,616 individuals. A sequence alignment method - OT-MDSUM (uni-dimensional Optimum Trajectories-based MultiDimensional Sequence Alignment Method) - was used to compare and calculate distances between pairs of different activity/travel sequences. These distances were then fed into a Ward hierarchical clustering algorithm to create classes of groups of activity/travel patterns. These groups were then analyzed according to the characteristics of the activity/travel sequences included and to the sociodemographic and economic characteristics of individuals who performed these patterns. The data were then utilized to develop a decision tree model using CHAID - Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detector, having the group of activity/travel sequences as the response variable and the characteristics of individuals and their families as independent variables. The results indicate that the groups formed through this procedure present a good degree of homogeneity regarding the activity patterns they represent and that they can be clearly associated to the characteristics of the individuals which perform these patterns.

This thesis examines several nuanced issues, including equitable access, regarding long-distance intercity travel. In the United States, studies of transportation equity focus on affordable access to local destinations and basic services. The limited studies of long-distance intercity travel focus on observed demand, ignoring latent or unmet demand. Both quantitative and qualitative data are used to explore the differences between those who participate in long-distance travel and those with unmet need for it. This thesis found that the ability to participate in long-distance travel plays a role in one’s overall well-being. Undertaking long-distance trips facilitates access to opportunity for cultural and educational experiences, as well as the maintenance and creation of social capital, factors which were indicated by study participants. The first part of the thesis examines equity in access to long-distance travel between individuals by using data from a state-wide survey completed by 2,232 Vermonters for the Vermont Agency of Transportation in 2016. Five ordinal logistic regression models that approximate different levels of realized and unmet travel are used to understand how access to intercity travel differs by socioeconomic, geographic location, and household characteristics. A total of 22 percent of respondents indicated they had unmet demand at least once per year. Furthermore, there was a significant correlation between those who had unmet demand within Vermont and outside of Vermont, proxies for local and intercity travel, respectively. Income level, Internet access, and education level were found to be significant predictors of realized long-distance travel. Household size and composition, household vehicles, age, income, and self-reported urban residence were predictors of both unmet local and long-distance travel need. In addition, full-time employment was significant for local unmet need, while miles to the nearest metropolitan area was a significant predictor for longer travel needs. Models of actual travel were stronger than for unmet demand, indicating that other unmeasured predictor variables may be important, thus requiring qualitative exploration. The second part of the thesis consists of an in-depth examination using semi-structured interviews regarding intercity travel with 24 women living in Chittenden County, Vermont. In addition to the qualitative survey methods, data from a social network geography survey designed specifically for the study and an overall well-being survey were used. Interviews were coded by theme relating to travel type, barriers to travel, and impact on quality of life. A majority of participants felt long-distance travel was very important or essential to their well-being and they wished to increase the amount they did. Additionally, participants felt the need to meet with friends and family in-person, therefore necessitating long-distance travel to those who lived further away. There was also a discrepancy between the desire to meet with friends and family and how often the participants actually were able to do so. Those with higher incomes had less unmet long-distance travel need.

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is a critical input to many transportation analyses. By definition, AADT is the average 24-hour volume at a highway location over a full year. Traditionally, AADT is estimated using a mix of permanent and temporary traffic counts. Because field collection of traffic counts is expensive, it is usually done for only the major roads, thus leaving most of the local roads without any AADT information. However, AADTs are needed for local roads for many applications. For example, AADTs are used by state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) to calculate the crash rates of all local roads in order to identify the top five percent of hazardous locations for annual reporting to the U.S. DOT. This dissertation develops a new method for estimating AADTs for local roads using travel demand modeling. A major component of the new method involves a parcel-level trip generation model that estimates the trips generated by each parcel. The model uses the tax parcel data together with the trip generation rates and equations provided by the ITE Trip Generation Report. The generated trips are then distributed to existing traffic count sites using a parcel-level trip distribution gravity model. The all-or-nothing assignment method is then used to assign the trips onto the roadway network to estimate the final AADTs. The entire process was implemented in the Cube demand modeling system with extensive spatial data processing using ArcGIS. To evaluate the performance of the new method, data from several study areas in Broward County in Florida were used. The estimated AADTs were compared with those from two existing methods using actual traffic counts as the ground truths. The results show that the new method performs better than both existing methods. One limitation with the new method is that it relies on Cube which limits the number of zones to 32,000. Accordingly, a study area exceeding this limit must be partitioned into smaller areas. Because AADT estimates for roads near the boundary areas were found to be less accurate, further research could examine the best way to partition a study area to minimize the impact.