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Trendschätzung in Large-Scale Assessments bei differenziellem ItemfunktionierenSachse, Karoline A. 27 February 2020 (has links)
Differenzielles Itemfunktionieren bedeutet für die Trendschätzung durch Linking in querschnittlich angelegten Large-Scale Assessments eine Voraussetzungsverletzung. Solche Voraussetzungsverletzungen können sich negativ auf die Eigenschaften von Trendschätzern auswirken, woraus sich Einschränkungen für die Interpretierbarkeit der Trendschätzung ergeben können. Die vorliegende Arbeit umfasst, eingebettet in einen Rahmungstext, drei Einzelbeiträge, die sich mit der Prüfung der Auswirkung differenziellen Itemfunktionierens unterschiedlicher Provenienz auseinandersetzen.
Im ersten Einzelbeitrag wird die Interaktion von Linkingdesigns und Linkingmethoden mit zwischen Ländern und über die Zeit unsystematisch unterschiedlich funktionierenden Items untersucht. Dabei zeigte sich, dass die Wahl des Designs von großer Bedeutung sein kann, während der Performanzunterschied zwischen gängigen Linkingmethoden marginal war. Darüber hinaus führte der häufig praktizierte Ausschluss von differenziell funktionierenden Items zu einem Effizienzverlust.
Im zweiten Einzelbeitrag wird die Unsicherheit der Trendschätzung, die entsteht, wenn Items zwischen Ländern und über die Zeit unsystematisch unterschiedlich funktionieren, quantifiziert und in die Berechnung der zugehörigen Standardfehler integriert.
Im dritten Einzelbeitrag wird betrachtet, wie differenziellem Itemfunktionieren begegnet werden kann, das durch fehlende Werte und wechselnde Ausfallmechanismen zustande kommt. Wurden die fehlenden Werte inadäquat behandelt, verloren die Trendschätzer ihre Erwartungstreue und Konsistenz sowie an Effizienz.
In der Summe wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit identifiziert und hervorgehoben, dass es in den untersuchten Bedingungen je nach Art des differenziellen Itemfunktionierens effektive Möglichkeiten des Umgangs mit diesem gibt, die potenziellen Einschränkungen bei der validen Interpretation der Trendschätzung zumindest teilweise entgegenwirken können. / Differential item functioning signifies a violation of the prerequisites required for trend
estimation, which involves the linking of cross-sectional large-scale assessments. Such
violations can negatively affect the properties of the trend estimators. Hence, the interpretability of trend estimates will be limited under such circumstances. Embedded within an overarching framework, three individual contributions that examine and deal with the effects of differential item functioning from different origins are presented in the current dissertation.
The first article examines the interactions of linking designs and linking methods with
items that show unsystematic and differential functioning between countries and across
time. It showed that the choice of the design can be of great importance, whereas the
difference in performance between common linking methods was marginal. In addition,
the exclusion of differentially functioning items, an approach that is frequently used in
practice, led to a loss of efficiency.
In the second contribution, the uncertainty for the trend estimation resulting from
items that show unsystematic and differential functioning between countries and across
time is quantified and incorporated into the calculation of the trends' standard errors.
The third article focuses on differential item functioning that is induced by missing
values and nonresponse mechanisms that change over time. When the missing values were
treated inappropriately, the trend estimators lost their unbiasedness, their consistency, and
their efficiency.
In sum, this dissertation identifies and emphasizes the ideas that, depending on the
type of differential item functioning, there are effective ways to deal with it under the
investigated conditions, and these can at least partially counteract potential limitations
so that the trend estimates can still be interpreted validly.
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Contemporary attitudes towards music in South African Protestant churchesLagerwall, Renée 11 1900 (has links)
This dissertation examines the attitudes of people regarding the worship music that is being used in South African Protestant churches during the last decade of the twentieth century. The research is aimed at the man-in-the-pew to identify general trends across a variety of denominations. 4920
questionnaires were sent to 980 churches countrywide and completed anonymously. Questions are divided into three categories: personal information, church related, personal opinions. Every question has space for comments.
Chapter one is a general discussion on people's opinions and attitudes and the aim and method used.
Chapter two is an historical synopsis.
Chapter three is an analysis of the questionnaire including hypotheses, graphs, results and comments.
Chapter four, the conclusion, identifies general trends regarding formality and informality, choirs and music groups, background music, traditional versus contemporary, education and influence of leaders, the need for policies, use of media and instruments. Proposals are suggested. / Art History, Visual Arts & Musicology / M. Mus.
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Extinction and recovery dynamics of Triassic-Jurassic macro-invertebrate communitiesOpazo Mella, Luis Felipe January 2012 (has links)
This work is focused on characterising and evaluating the intensity and selectivity of the marine fauna during the Tr/J mass extinction and recovery of the ecosystem in different localities throughout Pangaea. To address this, four localities were studied: St. Audrie’s Bay, Larne and Pinhay Bay in the UK, and Portezuelo Providencia in Chile. From each locality, samples were taken at approximately 1m intervals throughout the Tr/J sections. Species abundance per sample was estimated and each species was classified according to autoecological information derived from the literature. In order to assess changes in the structure and composition of the assemblages, NMDS and beta diversity index were performed, dominance and richness were estimated and the data were tested against five rank abundance (RAD) models. Ecospace modelling was used to estimate the loss in ecological diversity. Measures of the body size of bivalves and ichno-parameters were recorded on each section. Through the UK sections, the richness, dominance and the composition rate shifted abruptly during the extinction event. A geometric model shows the best fit during extinction events and, in contrast, a log-normal model best fits the pre-extinction and recovery event. The body size of the bivalves did not decrease during the Tr/J, while the coverage, richness and body size of ichnofossils increased during the recovery. The Chile Tr/J section records low richness, but the ecological complexity and richness decreases through the interval and composition records high turnover, while the dominance increases. The results indicate that the Tr/J disruption changed species composition in a relatively short time period, which decreased the ecological functionality of the invertebrate marine assemblage. In spatial terms, the UK fauna show a clear response to the extinction effect, but the diversity response of the Chilean assemblage is not clear at all, which may be related to taphonomical bias. Alternatively, this work analysed stage-by-stage occupation of ecospace of 3181 genera recorded from Sepkoski`s compendium for the marine fauna from the Late Permian to Early Jurassic. The ecospace can be represented as a combination of the three axes of tiering, motility and feeding, each divided into six subcategories. From the Cambrian to Recent, ecospace utilisation has tripled, however the trend through the Phanerozoic remains unclear. This result indicates that from the Guadalupian to Sinemurian the number of modes of life did not increase significantly, but the ecospace packing does. There was a significant positive correlation between abundance of predators and both infaunalisation and motility. However, the ecospace utilisation decreased 35% and 16% at the end of Permian and Triassic, respectively. During the extinction events, non-motile animals, organisms with little physiological control of biocalcification and the epifaunal forms, were heavily affected. This indicates that the mass extinction had a particular ecological effect on the biota and is an important episode of ecological changes due to ecological selectivity. Parallel, the appearance of adaptations to new trophic niches during the Triassic, like durophagy, presumably increased predation pressure and drove the increase in benthic infaunalisation. This series of adaptation could be potentially associated with the Marine Mesozoic Revolution.
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Recent climate change over the Arabian Peninsula : trends and mechanismsAlSarmi, Said Hamed Mohammed January 2014 (has links)
The global climate is changing. Compared with many parts of the world, especially North America and Europe, relatively little is known about how climate has changed over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) in recent decades. Quantifying the climate change in the mean and extreme temperature and precipitation variables and understanding the mechanisms behind these changes are essential for establishing adequate and proper adaptation strategies to ensure sustainability, reduce vulnerability and safeguard livelihoods. Four papers in this thesis contribute to that objective, utilising a combination of in situ high quality meteorological station data and high resolution regional climate model data. The first paper quantifies the trends in monthly, seasonal and annual mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) variables and total precipitation. The station dataseries are tested for quality control and homogeneity. A non-parametric test is used to calculate the trends and evaluate the trend significance for individual stations, subregions (Non-monsoonal and Monsoonal) and for the whole area average. There is a high significant increase in the temperature variables especially the minimum temperature (during 1980-2008 and over all the AP the trend of annual minimum temperature is 0.55 °C decade<sup>-1</sup> while the annual maximum temperature trend is 0.32 °C decade<sup>-1</sup>) which leads to significant decrease in the DTR. The precipitation is decline but insignificantly. The non-monsoonal region located north of 20° N has experienced higher rates of warming than the monsoonal region. Spring and summer seasons witness the highest significant warming. The interannual variability of the AP temperature and precipitation shows marked negative association after 1998. The second paper utilises the AP daily data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation to calculate climate extremes indices, evaluate the regional/subregional trends of these indices and assess the trend significance. There is a clear significant decrease of cold temperature extremes and a significant increase in the warm temperature extremes. The increase in the nighttime temperature extremes is remarkable in the last two decades (the rate of increase of the warm night frequency is 3.6% decade<sup>-1</sup> during 1986-2008). The spatial trend patterns reveal a latitudinal distinction whereby the northern AP experiences an increase associated with day-time extremes while for the night-time extremes the trends are higher and significant for the southern region. Precipitation indices trends are weak and although they show general decrease in the last two decades they are insignificant. The changes in the Dew Point (Td) and the Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) indicate possible changes in the regional dynamics. The third paper uses the Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model forced by the European Centre for ERA-Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) to simulate the AP climate during 1990-2008. PRECIS simulation is validated based on climate mean and trends. The model simulation captures the mean climatic conditions and patterns, the increasing temperature tendency, as well as the decreasing precipitation observed in the last two decades. However, PRECIS has cold bias especially with the minimum temperature and it overestimates the precipitation over the high lands or regions close to them over the southwestern mountains and underestimates the precipitation over the southeastern mountains. The model products provide indications on the reasons behind the highest daytime spring warming (decrease of specific humidity) and significant nighttime summer warming (increase of Sea Surface Temperature (SST)). The model fails to simulate the recent increase of the nighttime temperature parameters over AP. The final paper addresses the possible local atmospheric circulations, SST and remote modes of variability associated with the recent AP climate extreme changes. Using the PRECIS simulation, composite difference maps for some surface, upper atmospheric circulation maps and SSTs between two period 1990-1997 and 1998-2008 have been calculated. The composite difference maps reveal significant local changes in these atmospheric and oceanic variables which possibly partly explain the recent regional warming and drying conditions during the last two decades. In addition, relationships of the regional/subregional extremes indices timeseries have been calculated with some known remote modes of variability. There is a clear, strong relation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the AP climate in all the seasons except in winter. The North Atlantic Caspian Sea Pattern (NCP) influences the regional climate in winter especially the temperature variables.
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An Analysis of Voting Patterns in Mobile, Alabama, 1948-1970Voyles, James Everett, 1943- 05 1900 (has links)
The purpose of this thesis is to examine the voting trends in Mobile, Alabama, which have developed since 1948; particular emphasis is placed upon the role of the Negro vote in Mobile politics before and after the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
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Multimediální aplikace ve výuce francouzského jazyka / Multimedia applications in French language teachingSacherová, Jana January 2014 (has links)
TITLE: Multimedia applications in French language teaching SUMMARY: This thesis describes the possibilities of using tablets as educational devices within learning French as a foreign language. The work has a theoretical part and a practical part. In the theoretical part the role of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the educational process is defined. Tablet is characterized and classified in the system of didactic tools. Studies that have dealt with the teaching and learning via tablets are presented and programmes that enable equipping schools with these devices are mentioned. The way of teaching is transforming due to the upcoming educational technology and also the teacher's role in the process of education is changing. The practical part provides a critical review of the applications available in the App Store, which can be used for the development of different language skills in French class and beyond. Furthermore the thesis offers methodological instructions as a teacher's support. Through these materials, lessons containing work with authentic French applications could be introduced in class. The contribution of this thesis is thus both a critical review of selected educational applications that can serve as basic information for newcomers to the environment of multimedia...
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Trendy ve vývoji zahraničních preprimárních a primárních škol / Progress in trends of foreign pre-primary and primary schoolsKellerová, Lucie January 2015 (has links)
This dissertation deals with new approaches of alternative schooling in foreign countries which recently became very popular. These three schools and approaches chosen for this dissertation are not known in Czech Republic yet. The dissertation presents these alternative schools and proposes alternative brushing up of the ideas to the maintain schools. The first school and the first approach of alternative is democratic school or also free school. The oldest democratic school is Summerhill in the east of England. The second interesting approach and school is Te Whāriki from New Zealand. The framework deals with education through socio-cultural context. The last representative of schooling which dissertation deals with will be Reggio Emillia, which is from Italy and based on ideas of Loris Malaguzzi. The dissertation applies to main philosophies of these three alternatives, which appears abroad and mainly in Great Britain. This piece of work evaluates similarities and differences of these alternative schools. According to from which country the concrete school comes from and circumstances influencing the origin. The dissertation should contribute to the extension to Czech awareness of more alternative schools that are developing in the world. Also the piece of work devotes to ideas which could be...
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In store marketing z pohledu dodavatele / In - store marketing from the point of view of the supplierSüll, Szilvia January 2010 (has links)
In my thesis I focus on the in-store marketing from the perspective of the supplier. In the methodological section, I will describe a brief history of this form of advertising, how it developed and where it is going. Because we are in the B2B segment I will subscribe the marketing mix and compare it with the B2C segment. I will introduce the technological tools that are used in this field of business, procedures for the preparation of funds, cooperation with clients, production processes. I will observe the new trends in the present and introduce what to expect in the future. The practical part will present the company Willson & Brown, which has been for many years active in the in - store marketing business designer, manufacturer and supplier of POS materials. I will describe the company's products, technologies that are used in the production. Using the SWOT analysis, I will find out what the strengths and weaknesses of the firm are and what are the opportunities and threats that can challenge the company. I will usea research that was conducted among clients at European level and I will evaluate it. Using the SWOT analysis and the results from the research I will recommend a solution that can help the company grown and possibly lead the European POS market.
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Nové trendy v internetovém marketingu / New trends in Internet marketingDiblíková, Kateřina January 2010 (has links)
Diploma thesis deals with a role of the new medium -- the Internet. The thesis describes historical development of the Internet wordwide, in the Czech republic and analyzes the situation of Internet users in current czech enviroment. It shows a potential growth of global Internet users until the year 2030. A special attention is applied on the current trends of Internet marketing including e-mail marketing, SEM, banners, blogs and viral marketing. The aim of the diploma thesis is to uncover new trends in on-line marketing -- mobile and video marketing, social networks, location based marketing, virtual worlds, discount portals and others. This theoretical data are used in the case study recommanding appropriate usage of Internet marketing tools for REAL HAPPY HOME, Ltd.
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Telemedicina : análise da sua evolução no Brasil / Telemedicine: analysis of its evolution in Brazil.Khouri, Sumaia Georges El 19 August 2003 (has links)
O presente estudo consiste em descrever e analisar a evolução da Telemedicina no Brasil, abrangendo as experiências efetivamente implantadas até dezembro de 2000. Várias instituições no país têm adotado programas de telemedicina, tais como hospitais, laboratórios de análises clínicas, clínicas especializadas em realização de eletrocardiogramas à distância, universidades, o Exército e o próprio Governo. Cada uma das experiências tem diferentes objetivos e não há nenhuma integração entre elas. As aplicações estudadas variam desde aquelas que requerem uma estrutura tecnológica simples como a realização de eletrocardiogramas à distância, até outras mais sofisticadas tecnologicamente como a realização de teleconferências com transmissão de imagens clínicas para segunda opinião médica e monitoração remota de leitos. Para a realização do estudo foram feitas entrevistas com os responsáveis pelos programas e um levantamento de dados em publicações especializadas. As conclusões apontam para a falta de coordenação entre os modelos adotados, para a resistência cultural relativa à informática médica e à telemedicina e para o papel tímido do Governo no fomento da telemedicina. / The present study consists in describing and analyzing the evolution of Telemedicine in Brazil, comprehending the experiences established until December 2000. Several institutions in the country use telemedicine programs, as hospitals, pathology analysis clinics, remote electrocardiograms clinics, universities, the Brazilian Army and the federal Government. Each experience has its own goals and there is no integration among them. The telemedicine programs comprehend a wide range of applications: while some require a plain technological structure as remote electrocardiograms, others demand more sophisticated resources as teleconferences with clinical images transmission and remote bedside monitoring. To accomplish this study it was necessary to conduct interviews with the leaders of the projects and also data mining in specialized publications. The conclusions indicate that there is lack of coordination among the experiences, that there is a cultural resistence both to medical informatics and telemedicine, and the faint Goverment role in stimulating telemedicine.
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