Amphibians are in decline globally and a significantly greater percentage of ambystomatid salamander species are in decline relative to other species; habitat loss contributes significantly to this decline. The goals of this thesis is to better understand extinction risk in a marbled salamander (ambystoma opacum) population and how forestry effects extinction risk. To achieve this goal we first estimated an important life history parameter (Chapter 1) then used a metapopulation model to estimate population viability and determine what aspects of their life history put them most at risk (Chapter 2) and finally predicted extinction risk in response to hypothetical forestry scenarios (Chapter 3). In Chapter 1 we estimated one of the requisite parameters for the model, juvenile survival, based on 8 years of field data. We estimated juvenile survival probabilities (to first breeding) at 17% for males and 11% for females. To our knowledge, these are the first estimates for marbled salamanders that include both returning and dispersing individuals. In Chapter 2 we used a metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk and sensitivity of extinction risk to changes in vital rates and other model parameters. We found that although there is considerable uncertainty in our estimate it is likely that extinction risk is low at our study site. Sensitivity analysis revealed that small changes in adult survival lead to relatively large changes in persistence and the presence of an apparent threshold in reproductive failure probabilities beyond which extinction risk rapidly increased. In Chapter 3 we used the extinction risk and sensitivity estimates to model the effects of forestry on the metapopulation. We parameterized several different levels of impact of forestry on salamander survival; for each parameterization we calculated the extinction risk for 20 different forestry scenarios involving buffer size (30 to 300 meters) and complete or partial restrictions on cutting (5 different levels). We found for all but the most optimistic parameterizations large buffers (around 200 meters) with high restrictions on cutting within the buffer were necessary to maintain a low extinction risk. Overall we show that although the population at our intensively studied field site is unlikely to go extinct under present conditions small decreases in adult survival, small increases in catastrophe rate, and intensive forestry can all make extinction likely.

No description available.

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in a range of locations along Sweden's coastline, but Sweden's largest lake, Vänern, also harbors a population of salmon; the rare freshwater migratory form. The majority of the salmon in Lake Vänern migrate upstream in River Klarälven in order to spawn, where they are assisted by humans through the "trap and transport" method to get past Klarälven's eight hydropower dams, which otherwise constitute definite obstacles to upstream migration. When the salmon later migrate downstream to Lake Vänern they receive no assistance and experience a high mortality rate as they are partially forced to swim through the turbines. The wild salmon population today includes over 1000 spawners annually, an increase from <200 in the 196os, but far below historic records of over 10,000 spawners.  This report therefore aimed to investigate the population growth rate and extinction risk for the salmon in Klarälven, both in the current situation and with passages installed past the hydropower plants, and in doing so answer the questions 1) How large is the population growth rate and risk of extinction for today’s population of salmon in Klarälven over the course of 100 years? and 2) How would passage solutions past the hydropower plants in Klarälven affect the population growth rate and risk of extinction for today’s population of salmon in Klarälven over the course of 100 years? These questions were answered by running a population viability analysis in the program Extinction Vortex, which allows the programming of model populations and the manipulation of parameters to test different scenarios. The scenarios that were tested were 1) Scenario 1: Today's method with trap and transport and total lack of passages, 2) Scenario 2: Trap and transport continues, and downstream passages are installed past all eight power plants, and 3) Scenario 3: Upstream and downstream passages are installed past all eight power plants and trap and transport ceases. The results of the vulnerability analysis did not show any risk of extinction for the next 100 years, but a long-term negative trend for the salmon in Klarälven using today's method was seen. However, the development became significantly more positive for the salmon in Klarälven when the installation of downstream passages was simulated, but after that not significantly more positive when the installation of upstream passages was simulated as well. This result provided answers to the research questions and based on them it could be concluded that even though the salmon in Klarälven are not under any acute threat at the moment, and that there may be other fish populations in other regulated streams and rivers that would benefit more from environmental adaptation, measures need to be taken also in Klarälven, to ensure the long-term conservation of the unique freshwater migrating salmon that inhabit the area. / Laxen (Salmo salar) förekommer på flera håll längst Sveriges havskuster, men även Sveriges största insjö Vänern hyser en population av lax; den sällsynta sötvattensvandrande formen. Majoriteten av Vänerlaxarna migrerar upp för att leka i Klarälven, där de assisteras av människan genom metoden ”trap and transport” som tar dem förbi Klarälvens åtta vattenkraftverk vilka annars utgör definitiva vandringshinder. När laxen sedan ska ta sig tillbaka ner till Vänern får de ingen assistans, i stället tvingas de delvis simma genom turbinerna med stor dödlighet som följd. Laxpopulationen idag består av över 1000 lekande fiskar varje år, en ökning från <200 individer på 1960-talet, men långt under historiska siffror på över 10 000 lekande laxar. Detta arbete syftade därför till att undersöka populationsutvecklingen och utdöenderisken för Klarälvslaxen, såväl i nuläget som vid en installation av passager förbi kraftverken, och genom detta besvara frågeställningarna 1) Hur stor är populationsutvecklingen och utdöenderisken för dagens population av Klarälvslax över kommande 100 år? och 2) Hur skulle passagelösningar förbi vattenkraftverken i Klarälven påverka populationsutvecklingen och utdöenderisken för dagens population av Klarälvslax över kommande 100 år? Dessa frågeställningar besvarades med hjälp av en sårbarhetsanalys i programmet Extinction Vortex, som tillåter uppbyggandet av modellpopulationer och manipulation av parametrar för att testa olika scenarier. Scenarierna som testades var 1) Scenario 1: Dagens metod med trap and transport och total avsaknad av passager, 2) Scenario 2: Trap and transport fortsätter samt nedströmspassager installeras förbi alla åtta kraftverk, och 3) Scenario 3: Upp- och nedströmspassager installeras förbi alla åtta kraftverk och trap and transport upphör. Resultatet av sårbarhetsanalysen visade inte på någon utdöenderisk kommande 100 år, men en negativ trend för Klarälvslaxens långsiktiga populationsutveckling med dagens metod. Utvecklingen blev dock signifikant mer positiv för Klarälvslaxen vid den simulerade installationen av nedströmspassager, och ännu något stabilare när även uppströmspassager installerades. Detta resultat gav svar på frågeställningarna, och utifrån detta kunde slutsatsen dras att trots att Klarälvslaxen inte befinner sig under något akut hot för närvarande, och att det kan finnas andra fiskpopulationer i andra vattendrag som är i mer akut behov av miljöanpassning, så behöver åtgärder komma på plats även i Klarälven, för att säkerställa det långsiktiga bevarandet av den unika sötvattensvandrande Klarälvslaxen.

The eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) has a wide distribution and occurs in the palearctic region. In Europe, the lynx has been persecuted and exterminated from several of its natural distribution areas and has also been subject to persecution in Sweden, where a high hunting pressure led to a reduced population that almost went extinct. Today, the Swedish lynx population has recovered but is kept down by licensed hunting, which is strictly controlled due to the lynx's protection status. However, Sweden's government has backed a proposal for reduced protection that could potentially lead to higher hunting quotas and thus threaten the lynx's future, because of predators’ vulnerability to high hunting pressures and smaller populations’ vulnerability to stochastic events such as catastrophes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the development of the Swedish lynx population and how high the risk of extinction is now, with increased hunting quotas and if catastrophes would occur both with current hunting quotas and increased hunting quotas. Based on the purpose, the questions that were answered were the following: 1) What does the population development and extinction risk look like for the Swedish lynx population in the next 100 years with current hunting quotas? 2) How do higher hunting quotas affect the Swedish lynx population development and extinction risk in the next 100 years? 3) How would catastrophes with current hunting quotas and increased hunting quotas affect the Swedish lynx population development and extinction risk in the next 100 years? The questions were answered through a population viability analysis performed in Vortex 10 where four scenarios were created. In scenario 1, the null scenario, the Swedish lynx population development and extinction risk over 100 years were investigated in relation to current hunting quotas. In scenario 2, the Swedish lynx population development and extinction risk over 100 years were investigated in relation to current hunting quotas and catastrophes. In scenario 3, the Swedish lynx population development and extinction risk over 100 years were investigated in relation to increased hunting quotas. In scenario 4, the Swedish lynx population development and extinction risk over 100 years were investigated in relation to increased hunting quotas and catastrophes. The scenarios with the largest and smallest average population size after 100 years were scenario 1 and scenario 4, respectively. The growth rate was highest and lowest for scenario 1 and scenario 4, respectively. Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 had a negative growth rate. The extinction risk for scenarios 1 and 2 was 0% and scenarios 3 and 4 had an extinction risk of 1%. To conclude, the results indicate that the current hunting quotas do not threaten the Swedish lynx population, but that catastrophes have a negative impact on population growth at current hunting quotas, and that the increased hunting quotas have a negative impact as they result in a reduced population and a negative growth rate both with and without catastrophes. / Det eurasiska lodjuret (Lynx lynx) har en vid utbredning och förekommer i den palearktiska regionen. Lodjuret har i Europa förföljts och utrotats från flera av dess naturliga utbredningsområden och även i Sverige har lodjuret varit utsatt för förföljelse där ett högt jakttryck ledde till en minskad population som nästan utrotades. Idag har den svenska lodjursstammen återhämtat sig men hålls nere genom licensjakt, som är strikt kontrollerad på grund av lodjurets skyddsstatus. Däremot har Sveriges regering ställt sig bakom ett förslag till minskat skydd som potentiellt kan leda till högre jaktkvoter och därmed hota lodjurets framtid eftersom rovdjur är sårbara för höga jakttryck, samt att mindre populationer är mer sårbara för slumpmässiga händelser såsom katastrofer. Syftet med arbetet var att undersöka den svenska lodjursstammens utveckling och utdöenderisk i nuläget, vid förhöjda jaktkvoter, samt om katastrofer skulle inträffa vid nuvarande jaktkvoter respektive förhöjda jaktkvoter. Utifrån syftet besvarades följande frågeställningar: 1) Hur ser populationsutvecklingen och utdöenderisken ut för den svenska lodjursstammen under kommande 100 år med nuvarande jaktkvoter? 2) Hur påverkar högre jaktkvoter den svenska lodjursstammens populationsutveckling och utdöenderisk under kommande 100 år? 3) Hur skulle katastrofer vid nuvarande jaktkvoter respektive förhöjda jaktkvoter påverka den svenska lodjursstammens populationsutveckling och utdöenderisk under kommande 100 år? Frågeställningarna besvarades genom en sårbarhetsanalys som utfördes i Vortex 10 där fyra scenarier skapades. I scenario 1, grundscenariot, undersöktes den svenska lodjursstammens populationsutveckling och utdöenderisk över 100 år i förhållande till nuvarande jaktkvoter. I scenario 2 undersöktes den svenska lodjursstammens populationsutveckling och utdöenderisk över 100 år i förhållande till nuvarande jaktkvoter och katastrofer. I scenario 3 undersöktes den svenska lodjursstammens populationsutveckling och utdöenderisk över 100 år i förhållande till förhöjda jaktkvoter. I scenario 4 undersöktes den svenska lodjursstammens populationsutveckling och utdöenderisk över 100 år i förhållande till förhöjda jaktkvoter och katastrofer. Största respektive minsta genomsnittlig populationsstorlek efter 100 år fick scenario 1 respektive scenario 4. Tillväxthastigheten var högst respektive lägst för scenario 1 respektive scenario 4. Scenario 2, 3 och 4 hade alla en negativ tillväxthastighet. Utdöenderisken för scenario 1 och 2 blev 0% och scenario 3 och 4 hade en utdöenderisk på 1%. Resultaten tyder på att de nuvarande jaktkvoterna inte hotar den svenska lodjursstammen men att katastrofer ger en negativ påverkan på populationstillväxten vid nuvarande jaktkvoter, samt att de förhöjda jaktkvoterna har en negativ påverkan då de ger en minskad population och en negativ tillväxthastighet både med och utan katastrofer.

The northern Norwegian killer whale (Orcinus orca) is an important predator but little is known about its population dynamics, particular in response to changes in its main prey, the highly dynamic Norwegian spring spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus). The main aims of this thesis were to estimate killer whale population parameters, to explore the future viability of the population, and to explore the response of this predator to changes in distribution and abundance of its main prey over the last 25 years. Population size was estimated as ~ 700 individuals, taking heterogeneity of capture probabilities into account and correcting for unmarked animals. Apparent survival rates of 0.974 (SE = 0.006) for adult males and 0.984 (SE = 0.006) for adult females were estimated accounting for temporary emigration, transience and trap-dependency. Temporary emigration was greater for males than females. Calving intervals ranged from 3 to 14 years (mean = 5.06); equivalent to 0.197 calves per mature female per year. Future viability of the killer whale population was evaluated under various plausible scenarios. The baseline scenario using the best available information predicted a viable population and indicated that the population may be increasing size. Analysis of data on naval sonar activity, killer whale sightings and herring abundance showed that naval sonar activity appeared to have a negative effect on killer whale presence during a period of low prey availability. A time lag of four years was found between the first sign of NSS herring changing its distribution and reduced killer whale presence inside the fjord system. Analysis of energy budgets showed that killer whales spent more time travelling/foraging in 2005/06 than the 1990s. The fjord system was inferred to be a preferred habitat for killer whales when there was a higher density of NSS herring in this area compared to offshore area.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 2009. / Title from title page screen (viewed on Mar. 8, 2010). Thesis advisor: Frank T. van Manen. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

This dissertation analyses the effects of current fisheries practices and management regulations of the green spiny lobster (Panulirus gracilis) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Region (ETP). P. gracilis has reached a critical state in the ETP. Country-based studies report that between 60 and 98% of lobsters caught in the wild are under the minimum landing size (MLS). This means that spiny lobsters are being extracted before reproducing and contributing to the replenishment of interconnected populations. The recovery of green spiny lobster populations in the ETP and the future maintenance of a sustainable fishery will depend on effective management decisions and on taking in account environmental factors that influence the population dynamics of the lobsters. In the first study (Chapter 2), the B52 Spiny Lobster individual based simulation model was used for conducting a population viability analysis to quantify the effect of current fishing practices and the effect of varying management regulations on minimum landing size (MLS) and fishing effort. The best suit of regulations to maintain the highest abundance, production of offspring and catch is to protect juveniles and egged females, and to establish a MLS that assures the reproduction of individuals before being extracted. This study revealed regional variations, however the patterns and the causes for variation were not yet clear. This led to the next chapters in this dissertation. In Chapter 3, I used a meta-analysis to explore regional lobster variability by comparing published studies from the ETP. The objective was to identify patterns of variation related to geographic and environmental factors of the region that can inform the establishment and evaluation of coordinated regulations. Morphological relationships showed to be more variable at northern latitudes, where the mean annual sea surface temperatures are higher than at lower temperatures at the Equator. In terms of management, MLS regulations should be adapted accounting for the effect of sea surface temperature and its variation. Additionally, it was observed that monitoring methodologies are not standardized within the region and even in some cases, neither within countries. Furthermore, in most places monitoring of the spiny lobster fishery happens sporadically, only in Galapagos takes place every year. Identifying patterns of variations can improve the accuracy of prediction models which can help to explore, design, and apply more effective management measures, as well as promote regional coordination to support the recovery and maintenance of spiny lobsters. In Chapter 4, I contrast current Ecuadorian minimum landing size (MLS) regulation to lobster empirical measurements within Ecuador in order to recognize potential pitfalls for management enforcement. I used linear regression and multiple regression models with the objective of identifying potential relative size variations of the individuals caught in the wild over time and in the different fishing areas in Ecuador, as well as to analyse the effect of locality, sex, age and mean SST on the tail length/total length ratio. Morphological relations were significantly different among sexes, in time and by all sites. Most importantly, this study shows that current minimum size regulations are not applicable to all sites. Additionally, I found that water temperature has a significant effect on morphological relationship variations. However, it was not the main site-specific variable responsible for explaining such variations. In general, this work emphasizes the need for length data collection standardization and the consideration of temporal and spatial variation implications in national and regional fishery management planning, enforcement and evaluation.

Diploma thesis analyzes the viability of the selected species populations in the Czech Republic. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first part contains a stochastic model simulating possible scenarios of the Eurasian lynx population size in the Czech Republic. For this model program Vortex was used. The second part is focused on Time series analysis of the Grey Partridge and the Common Kingfisher population, where data was obtained from the Czech Society for Ornithology. This analysis aims on identification of factors that may affect the viability of the two bird species.

With a declining population of roughly 3000-5000 individuals in Africa, African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are one of the most endangered carnivores in the world. As the global human population expands, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that large portions of land will be set aside for conservation, especially in developing countries. Thus, recent wild dog conservation efforts in South Africa have concentrated on establishing a managed metapopulation. A metapopulation is a group of geographically isolated subpopulations of a species that are managed (using supplementation and harvesting) to mimic natural gene flow. The Great Fish River Nature Reserve (GFRNR) in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa has been identified as a potential reserve to become part of the national wild dog metapopulation. My research aimed to conduct a feasibility assessment of the long-term (~ 25 years) success of a wild dog reintroduction into the GFRNR. This assessment included biological modelling of wild dogs and their expected prey, and determining the potential anthropogenic threats to wild dogs on the private and communal land surrounding the reserve. I used VORTEX population modelling and determined that the GFRNR is likely to have a wild dog carrying capacity of ~22 individuals. Using a 25-year modelling simulation, the most appropriate wild dog reintroduction scenario would be to reintroduce six females and four males initially and supplement the population with one female and two males in years 3, 10, 15 and 23. In addition, the harvesting/removal of one male and one female in years 10 and 20 would be required to ensure 100% population persistence and adequate genetic diversity. Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) and bushbuck (Tragelaphus scriptus) are expected to be the two most important prey species for reintroduced wild dogs in the GFRNR. Furthermore, wild dogs are likely to prefer the north-western and south-western sectors of the reserve because of the relatively high prey densities in these areas. However, regular monitoring of both the potential prey and the wild dog populations is essential to ensure persistence of the wild dogs and to prevent prey populations decreasing precipitously. Using structured questionnaire interviews (n = 128), I found that while neighbouring land owners and local communities were generally positive about the potential wild dog reintroduction (56 % of all respondents), several threats to wild dogs were identified along the reserve boundary and on the adjoining unprotected land. Some private landowners and members of rural communities around the reserve (34 %) stated that they would kill any wild dogs that dispersed onto their land. In addition, some respondents (8 %) admitted to believing in traditional uses for wild dog products (e.g. fur) which could result in the illegal killing of wild dogs outside of the GFRNR for traditional purposes. Poaching and the presence of unvaccinated domestic dogs on neighbouring land were also identified as being potential threats to a reintroduced wild dog population. However, such anthropogenic threats appear to be localised to the western and southern boundaries of the reserve. Therefore, by implementing preventative measures (such as anti-snare collars, anti-poaching patrols and vaccination against rabies and canine distemper) the likelihood of such threats occurring can be reduced. I conclude that the GFRNR can sustain a population of wild dogs and successfully contribute to South Africa‘s national metapopulation. An additional reserve will benefit the country‘s metapopulation by increasing the number of wild dogs available for translocation, thereby increasing genetic diversity and overall resilience (to environmental change, disease etc.) of South Africa‘s wild dog population. This will contribute towards the future conservation of this endangered species.

This dissertation analyses the effects of current fisheries practices and management regulations of the green spiny lobster (Panulirus gracilis) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Region (ETP). P. gracilis has reached a critical state in the ETP. Country-based studies report that between 60 and 98% of lobsters caught in the wild are under the minimum landing size (MLS). This means that spiny lobsters are being extracted before reproducing and contributing to the replenishment of interconnected populations. The recovery of green spiny lobster populations in the ETP and the future maintenance of a sustainable fishery will depend on effective management decisions and on taking in account environmental factors that influence the population dynamics of the lobsters. In the first study (Chapter 2), the B52 Spiny Lobster individual based simulation model was used for conducting a population viability analysis to quantify the effect of current fishing practices and the effect of varying management regulations on minimum landing size (MLS) and fishing effort. The best suit of regulations to maintain the highest abundance, production of offspring and catch is to protect juveniles and egged females, and to establish a MLS that assures the reproduction of individuals before being extracted. This study revealed regional variations, however the patterns and the causes for variation were not yet clear. This led to the next chapters in this dissertation. In Chapter 3, I used a meta-analysis to explore regional lobster variability by comparing published studies from the ETP. The objective was to identify patterns of variation related to geographic and environmental factors of the region that can inform the establishment and evaluation of coordinated regulations. Morphological relationships showed to be more variable at northern latitudes, where the mean annual sea surface temperatures are higher than at lower temperatures at the Equator. In terms of management, MLS regulations should be adapted accounting for the effect of sea surface temperature and its variation. Additionally, it was observed that monitoring methodologies are not standardized within the region and even in some cases, neither within countries. Furthermore, in most places monitoring of the spiny lobster fishery happens sporadically, only in Galapagos takes place every year. Identifying patterns of variations can improve the accuracy of prediction models which can help to explore, design, and apply more effective management measures, as well as promote regional coordination to support the recovery and maintenance of spiny lobsters. In Chapter 4, I contrast current Ecuadorian minimum landing size (MLS) regulation to lobster empirical measurements within Ecuador in order to recognize potential pitfalls for management enforcement. I used linear regression and multiple regression models with the objective of identifying potential relative size variations of the individuals caught in the wild over time and in the different fishing areas in Ecuador, as well as to analyse the effect of locality, sex, age and mean SST on the tail length/total length ratio. Morphological relations were significantly different among sexes, in time and by all sites. Most importantly, this study shows that current minimum size regulations are not applicable to all sites. Additionally, I found that water temperature has a significant effect on morphological relationship variations. However, it was not the main site-specific variable responsible for explaining such variations. In general, this work emphasizes the need for length data collection standardization and the consideration of temporal and spatial variation implications in national and regional fishery management planning, enforcement and evaluation.