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This is a study of the ways in which citizens construct sense in the voting booth while voting. The experimental design is a pretest posttest control group. The driving theory is that citizens want to convince themselves that they have made sense of the information presented to them. This is their singular value. The reason why this is upheld as the singular value is because without the capacity to construct sense in the voting process, voters would otherwise feel disenfranchised (i.e. deprived of the right to vote) and subsequently feel alienated (i.e. deprived of the rewards that can come from voting). Citizens will be given an opportunity to present bills; they will evoke certain keywords and phrases. The citizen will later evoke varied terminology when confronted with voting patterns from "Senators". The test for the citizen in this experiment will be to remove those Senators who are voting at random and provide reasons for either reelection to or removal from office. There are two anticipated results: 1) Senators voting in random patterns will be removed from office in an equal or lesser proportion than remaining Senators, and 2) responses to non-random voting patterns will evoke lesser variation in terminology employed.

Economic explanations vs. cultural concerns. These two branches of research have been established as the two major approaches in understanding the electoral success of radical populist parties. As for economic hardship, the feeling of neglect by established parties and political discontent are considered as mechanisms translating into the preference of anti-establishment parties with a people-centrist rhetoric. From a cultural perspective, radical populist voting has been linked to people holding on to more conservative viewpoints and rejecting the perceived predominance of trends such as multiculturalism and postmaterialism they assume established parties to focus on. While there is evidence suggesting that an unfavorable socioeconomic status does foster voting in favor of populist parties, multiple previous studies agree that cultural or political concerns surpass the explanatory power of economic insecurity in that regard (e.g. Mudde & Rovira Kaltwasser, 2018; Oesch, 2008, Ramiro & Gomez, 2017). Nonetheless, economic approaches of populist voting should not be discarded. Instead, the inconsistency across previous studies in terms of evidence hints at the possibly crucial impact of the research design on the results to be obtained. In this respect, the predominant use of aggregate data in the field does not allow for conclusions on individual voting behavior whereas even the analysis of individual-level data often comes along with a static perspective on single-election years which makes the results context-dependent and limits their generalizability. Next to the substantial investigation on which aspects of socioeconomic hardship increase support for populism, it is another objective of this thesis to contribute to the state of research by illustrating the methodological impact on the evidence yielded. In order to achieve that, this thesis consists of four substudies, each approaching the research question from another perspective to provide a comprehensive overview on socioeconomic drivers of populist voting. Relying on survey data from the Belgian Election Study 2014, for a start it is analyzed if socioeconomic deprivation shapes populist attitudes. For that, both the individual and the contextual situation are considered. Another deepening of knowledge pursued in the first empirical chapter is the disentanglement of three attitude dimensions which are part of the rhetoric used by populist parties but have been cumulated in previous studies (i.e. anti-immigration views, people-centrism, and anti-elitism). The evidence suggests that populist views are stronger among persons with a lower level of education and a stronger sense of relative deprivation. The effect of relative deprivation on people-centrist views is furthermore stronger when the local surroundings are characterized by higher financial wealth. In the second empirical study, the outcome to be explained is the actual voting behavior in favor of a populist party, using the example of Flemish Interest (Vlaams Belang). Again, the analysis is taking place on a small-scale contextual level. The longitudinal perspective on Flemish municipalities covering the period from 2006 to 2018 is an additional contribution. Through the estimation of fixed effects panel regression models, possible sources of biased findings may be partially eliminated. This advantageous statistical method is not only exploited for substantial purposes but also to point out its benefits when contrasting it to other longitudinal strategies, such as separate year-specific and pooled models. Unexpectedly, the local unemployment rate is negatively related to the aggregate success of Vlaams Belang. Nonetheless, the comparison across analytical approaches underlines the relevance of advantageous statistical methods that reduce the risk of an omitted variable biasand allow to consider time trends. The third chapter also relies on a longitudinal design and illustrates the analytical benefits of panel data but gives attention to the individual level, using information from the Dutch LISS panel survey. Like in the previous sub-study, there is evidence illustrating the analytical potential of panel data. In substantial terms, however, multiple characteristics of individual deprivation do not significantly influence the support for radical populist parties. The fourth and final empirical chapter broadens the perspective in several regards as it gives up the previous focus on single countries in favor of a cross-country analysis on the election for the European Parliament 2019. What is more, another form of voting behavior is considered that is theoretically similar to populist voting, namely abstaining. With that alternative outcome being part of the study, additional analyses are conducted to identify attitudinal mechanisms which explain the preference for either populist voting or abstaining. Both prove to be more likely than mainstream party voting among person with a low educational level and frequent educational difficulties. An unfavorable position on the labor market, however, comes along only with an increased tendency of abstention. If socioeconomic vulnerability translates into anti-immigration views, however, radical populist voting is more likely than mainstream party voting or abstaining whereas an emerging political disinterest and feeling of powerlessness explain why socioeconomically vulnerable persons rather choose not to vote at all. The tendency of mainstream party voting is reduced if unemployment or financial troubles translate into the disapproval of politics but neither radical populist party voting nor abstaining are boosted more than the other.

Crime and violence are central issues for citizens in new democracies, many of which are increasingly threatened by organized crime and “brown areas” of lawlessness. The impact of crime concerns on vote choice, however, has been largely overlooked in the existing literature on voting behavior, which has centered on the role of partisanship, clientelistic linkages, or economic voting in explaining electoral outcomes. In this paper, I argue that crime voting explains much of vote choice in high crime new democracies. Using Mexico as a representative case of a new democracy facing rising violence, I find that crime considerations significantly affect vote choice in the country’s recent presidential elections. In 2006, crime views had up to five times the effect on vote choice as economic considerations. In 2012, despite stronger partisanship, clientelism, and economic effects, and a dearth of candidate attention to the issue, crime perceptions remained a significant predictor of vote choice. This finding suggests crime matters to vote choice and should be incorporated into models of voting behavior in violence-plagued new democracies. / text

This dissertation demonstrates that the presence of the initiative process alters voting behavior in the selection of candidates. By allowing constituents to bypass their elected officials to directly select policy, the availability of the initiative leads to substitution between voters' concern over substantive versus symbolic representation. In states with heavy use of the initiative, votes for candidates depend less on the policy positions of the candidates but more on personal characteristics like integrity, attractiveness and descriptive representation. Predictions are derived from a formalization of the theory and are empirically tested using diverse types of data. I demonstrate diminished concern over policy positions through survey data. As use of the initiative increases, a multi-level model demonstrates that votes in that state are less dependent upon the similarity between respondent and candidate policy positions. Increased concern over the integrity of candidates demonstrated through decreased conviction rates for political corruption by the Department of Justice, and increased concern for descriptive representation is demonstrated by a greater balance in the gender of legislators in initiative states. Finally, I find that the personal attractiveness of legislators has a greater effect on votes in initiative states. This theory of substitution depends upon direct democracy leading to more representative policy which is a highly contested claim. This dissertation supports the substitution claim by demonstrating that the initiative does improve representation. I demonstrate how representation should be measured conceptually and statistically, replicate previous models, and then test the theory on an extensive new dataset.

During campaigns, voters often learn that their party's candidate advocates policy positions that conflict with their own attitudes. These cross-pressured voters can either adjust their policy positions to be consonant with their party's candidate or voting for others. I use monthly NES Panel Data from 2008-2009 to examine how voters' beliefs change about a specific policy: the redistribution of wealth through progressive taxation during a presidential campaign. I test this by creating a Random Effects Ordered Probit Panel regression model of ten monthly waves of survey data before the 2008 presidential election. The study shows that over the campaign, voters' policy positions evolve on redistributive taxation policy; voters adjust their prior policy cognitive dissonance to be in agreement with their candidate. The results indicate that in the 2008 Presidential election, the electorate more often moved their policy beliefs to be in agreement with their candidate, rather than switch votes.

For foreign and Mainland China spouses who were born in foreign countries but immigrated to Taiwan due to marriage, they probably come to Taiwan to pursue a better life and thus become our neighbors. However, owing to the differences in cultural background between them and the Taiwanese people, many misunderstanding and conflicts often happened between the early immigrants and the local habitants. There are many relevant studies discussing the living problems of those foreign and Chinese brides, but it is rare to see studies about their rights and obligations. This research applies the theory of ¡§funnel of causality¡¨ (Campbell, Converse, Millers & Strokes) to explore the voting behavior of the foreign and Chinese brides. The main concept of the theory is to regard party identification as a long-term and constant attitude factor. Therefore, it thought that party identification is the determinant affecting the voting decision, while the candidate orientation is only a short-term factor to influence the voting decision, and such decision is emotional and lacking of rational judgement. As to issue orientation, it has only limited influence on the decisions of voters, but in the wake of the gradual declination of the voters¡¦ party identification, ¡§candidate orientation¡¨ and ¡§issue orientation¡¨ turn to be the primary factors to influence the voters¡¦ decisions. This study uses party identification, candidate orientation, electoral issue, and political socialization as the four observable variants and carries out questionnaire investigation by using the quantified statistics. The results of the statistical analysis found that, in cognition of voters¡¦ voting behavior, political party preference is not a factor to influence the voting behavior, nor the Candidate¡¦s qualification creates notable differences. However, it was found that the foreign and Mainland China spouses paid much attention to the political views of candidates. The more they integrate into Taiwan¡¦s society, the more recognition of Taiwan they have. In view of the low voting turnout rate, this study proposes that the government should enhance the electoral advertising and promotion in order to increase the voting turnout rate. Furthermore, the government should show more concern about the foreign and Chinese brides and combine the power of the local communities to enable those foreign spouses to melt into Taiwan¡¦s society earlier and further to exercise and fulfill their rights and obligations. Finally, it is hope that the government may treat all Mainland China spouses and foreign spouses equally without discrimination, and help the Mainland China spouses to get their identify cards soon as the foreign spouses do. In this way, those foreign and Mainland China spouses will enjoy the same basic human rights as the local people, contribute their share toward Taiwan, and never be the underprivileged group in this society any more. Keywords: Foreign bride, voting behavior, political socialization

¡§Strategic voting behavior¡¨ means that when there are three or more candidates competing in one certain election, voters, under rational consideration, think that their most favorite candidate has no chance of winning at all, and recognize that their voting for this candidate will cause their least favorite candidate to win; therefore, voters can only choose to vote for their second favorite candidate to avoid from their most undesirable outcome. In the 2000 presidential election, the three major contenders of Lien Chan, Chen Shui-bian, and James Soong were equally competitive, which created a context of strategic voting. This study therefore used ¡§strategic voting¡¨ as a main theme to investigate the voters¡¦ voting behavior in the 2000 presidential election. The present study analyzed data at both macro and micro levels. At the macro level, it was found that lots of KMT¡¦s votes shifted to the campaigns of either Chen Shui-bian or James Soong, which more or less demonstrated voters¡¦ low stability for partisan voting in this election, and to some degree was a result of voters¡¦ strategic voting behavior. At the micro level, it revealed that Lien Chan, who was considered the most competent, was always voters¡¦ second best choice before the election. That is, voters felt neutral towards Lien Chan, who was neither voters¡¦ most favorite candidate nor the least desired one, and additionally Lien Chan had long been the weakest in the poll, which made him the most likely to be abandoned. The result of the election also showed that among the voters who adopted the strategy of ¡§abandoning someone to save another¡¨, fewest chose to ¡§save Lien Chan.¡¨ Hence, voters did have ¡§strategic voting behavior¡¨ in the 2000 presidential election, and Lien Chan obviously claimed the highest percentage of voters¡¦ abandoned candidate.

This dissertation aims to investigate the bases of partisan differentiation and degree of polarization since Taiwan's 2000 presidential election. By employing American concepts and theories of partisan polarization, I analyze Taiwan's party politics at both the elite and mass levels. At the elite level, I examine whether inter‐party antagonism has become more intense in Taiwan's legislature and what types of issues contribute most to party conflict since 2000. At the mass level, I examine public perceptions of the parties, analyze whether any political issues divide the Taiwanese public along partisan lines, and explore the social and demographic bases of partisan divisions. The findings suggest that political elites became polarized along partisan lines after 2000, as observed in roll‐call voting behavior in the Legislative Yuan. This resulted from the formation of a divided government and the confrontation of two party coalitions after the 2000 presidential election. Furthermore, this polarization is mainly due to the opposite positions of the two party coalitions on the issue of the relationship with China. The pan‐blue party coalition favors reunification and closer interaction with China, whereas its counterpart, the pan‐green party coalition, favors Taiwanese independence and limited interaction with China. The issues of social reform vs. stability, social welfare vs. lower taxes, and environmental protection vs. economic development are less polarizing and less consistently divisive than the issue of Taiwan's relations with China. Partisan polarization is less evident among ordinary citizens than among political elites. The only issue dividing Taiwanese significantly is the China relationship issue (independence or unification with China). In addition, demographic factors may lead to partisan division among citizens. Nevertheless, this polarization is more moderate than that of political elites because the number of partisan independents is high and has not decreased significantly. In short, partisan polarization in Taiwan is not as intense as some political scientists claim. Taiwan's partisan polarization at the mass level is closer to the concept of "sorting", referring to the process of people gradually affiliating with the party that best reflects their policy preferences, even if those preferences are more moderate than extreme.

This dissertation investigates changes in election results associated with adoption of different voting technologies. The empirical application uses election data for different offices from the period 1994-2002. We exploit a discontinuity associated with a change of the voting mechanism, from paper ballot to Direct Recording Electronic (DRE), conditioned on Brazilian election structure with overlap (local elections held two years out of phase with general elections) as a source of identification for election results determinants. We find robust evidence that the shift to an easier voting mechanism reflected on an enfranchising effect (increase in valid votes) which ultimately resulted in more political competitiveness. The impact on election outcome creates a source of identification for the determinants of mayors decision related to municipalities\' resource allocation. Specifically, we find evidence suggesting that facing an increase in political competition municipalities with a previous low level of competition reallocate public spending towards health care. / Essa dissertação consiste em uma análise das mudanças em resultados eleitorais associadas a adoção do voto eletrônico em 1998. Utiliza-se para essa investigação, a análise empírica de resultados das eleições para diferentes cargos entre 1994 e 2002. A partir da descontinuidade associada à adoção do voto eletrônico em 1998, em substituição à cédula de votação, e da estrutura sazonal das eleições brasileira (que, com um intervalo de dois anos, alterna as eleições municipais e as estaduais/federais) exploramos o impacto eleitoral da adoção da nova tecnologia e os desdobramentos em outras variáveis políticas. Encontramos forte evidência de que o voto eletrônico resultou em enfranchising (aumento dos votos válidos) e, em última instância, em maior nível de competição política. Usamos a mudança no grau de competição como fonte para identificação dos determinantes da alocação de gastos municipais. Especificamente, encontramos evidências que sugerem que aumentos no nível de competição política, para municípios com níveis menos acirrados de disputada eleitoral, tem impacto na realocação dos orçamento público municipal em direção aos gastos com saúde.