Dramatic changes in the international system since the early nineties, namely the end of the Cold War and the post-9/11 ascendancy of the Bush Doctrine, have left many to wonder whether Cold War era influence strategies such as deterrence, compellence, and engagement are viable against new U.S. threats-rogue states. This thesis will examine U.S. efforts between 1986 and 2004 to convince Libya to cease its support for international terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). U.S. influence strategy towards Libya was a short term failure and a long term success. The compellence and deterrence policies established by President Reagan and strengthened by later administrations served to isolate Libya economically and diplomatically and set the conditions for successful conditional engagement. Positive behavior change by Libya began first with the Clinton Administration's introduction of conditional engagement. The Bush Administration, benefiting from years of Libyan isolation and the positive response to conditional engagement, continued to engage Libya in an incremental fashion. Libya renounced its terrorist ties in August 2003 and weapons of mass destruction in December 2003. Since then Tripoli has taken actionable steps to verify this change of policy and both governments are currently on course for reconciliation.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / Considering the ever-rising threat of terrorist attack and disruption of the economy and of daily activity, the potential strength of a radiological dispersion device must be evaluated. A "dirty bomb" is a weapon in the terrorist arsenal that is highly effective in creating chaos, panic and disruption. All of the immediate deaths caused by a "dirty bomb" are due to blast effects, however the public association with radiation and nuclear devices is one of fear and hyperbole. The individuals and agencies that respond to this type of event will have the greatest impact on the general public. By looking at case studies and potential scenarios or exercises the first responder can appreciate the nature of radiation as well as its impact on response. The goal of this paper is to provide first responders with basic information on nuclear physics and expose relevant issues in responding to a radiological dispersion device. An understandable link between nuclear physics and radiation response does exist. / Ensign, United States Navy

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The geopolitical change and emergence of new threats, notably terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, forced a reappraisal of the political and security roles of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Alliance's post- Cold War development, operations in the Balkans, and differences across the Atlantic also provided grounds for a revision of NATO's purely self-defense dimension. The Alliance, after having permanent out-of-area debates, has realized that it can no longer be circumscribed by artificial geographic boundaries to meet the future. At its Summit in Prague 2002, NATO initiated a new concept transforming itself into an effective organization with a global approach. By establishing the NATO Response Force, balancing the burden-shifting, and opening the security dialog among likeminded allies, NATO renewed the essence of common transatlantic values. By analyzing NATO's role and its prevailing tendencies, this thesis contends that NATO is no longer a regional security organization but a collective security instrument with its first front abroad, in the Greater Middle East and Northern Africa. However, if NATO is to contribute profoundly to international peace, it needs an institutional framework with global legitimacy. / Lieutenant Colonel, Czech Armed Forces

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / Despite decades of energetic international control efforts, nuclear weapons technology continues to spread worldwide. To understand how these complex weapons programs can be developed, we assume the role of a nation seeking to build a first fission weapon, and the ability to continue to build more. We introduce a large-scale project management model that includes alternate development paths to achieve certain key technical milestones. We show how such a project can be optimally accelerated by expe-diting critical tasks. Next, we present a new analysis tool to detect vulnerabilities in such a development program: we seek optimal actions to impede, set back and/or otherwise frustrate completion of a first weapon, even if the proliferator knows what we are doing to delay things. This two-sided project evaluation tool is implemented with a combination of off-the-shelf project management software, optimization software and custom code. An illustrative case study of a first fission weapon program shows how this new analysis tool can be used. Our methods also apply to chemical, biological and/or radiological dispersion weapons, as well as to more conventional strategic industrial and commercial activities. / Lieutenant, Supply Corps, United States Navy

Iran and the United States have faced each other across a deep divide ever since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the events of the American Embassy Hostage crisis. The absence of diplomatic relations between the two nations has led to a lack of communication which has resulted in difficulties crafting successful policies to build bridges between the two governments. The specter of Iran's quest for nuclear weapons casts a further pall on the troubled relations. Case studies of historical examples of nuclear proliferation using multi-causality can shed light on what factors are motivating Iran to seek nuclear weapons. Once these factors are understood, the United States can craft rational policies to pursue its goals in the Middle East while accommodating the probable rise of nuclear industry in Iran.

This study treats the character of French nuclear policy since September 11, 2001; as such this work adds the most recent episode to a theme that, since the late-1950s, has concerned alliance statecraft faced with French â exceptionalismâ in trans-Atlantic relations. In the post-Cold War era, the changes in the strategic environment have led to a further evolution in French nuclear deterrent policy which forms the heart of this study. In 2001 and 2006, French President Chirac made policy speeches which specifically discussed nuclear strategy and clarified the shift in French thought and the justification for deterrence. In 2001, the most important element addressed dissuasion of regional powers and â rogueâ states with WMD that may attack France. The 2006 speech incorporated the threat of statesponsored terrorism into the nuclear dissuasion strategy. The thesis investigates past and present developments in French nuclear strategy, with chief emphasis on the period from the end of the Cold War to the beginning of the twenty-first century; it highlights the forces that have shaped French doctrine and analyzes the viability of the nuclear strategy as seen by a U.S. observer. A review of French Cold War doctrine provides the necessary backdrop for an evaluation of new elements in French nuclear strategy and should act as a guide to students of same in U.S. and NATO policy circles.

Well-publicized lost opportunities for U.S. and coalition air forces to strike enemy leadership targets in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrate the importance of Time Sensitive Targeting. How do we "pair" the weapon and weapons delivery platform with their target? The available platforms (aircraft, manned or unmanned) may be on the ground in an alert status, loitering airborne, or on their way to attack other targets. The problem is compounded by the facts that we actually wish to (a) create multiple strike packages simultaneously, (b) recompose existing strike packages that are disrupted by the new plans, (c) minimize such disruptions, (d) satisfy minimum kill probabilities, and (e) avoid the attrition of tasked assets. This thesis develops an automated, optimizing, heuristic decision aid, "RAPT-OR", that rapidly revises a current Air Taking Order (ATO) to meet the requirements above. Using a set-packing model, RAPT-OR, an ATO near optimally, on a desktop PC, in less than two seconds, for a typical scenario with 40 aircraft, four new targets and hundreds of potential strike packages. RAPT-OR allows decision makers the ability of adjusting risk acceptance in the formulation of possible courses of action by manipulating friendly attrition importance in formulating a solution.

The attack on the USS Cole within a civilian port, and the increased threat of pirating and terrorism on the high seas, underscore the immediate need for a maritime non-lethal capability. This research uses modeling and simulation to explore the requirements and tactical use of non-lethal capabilities in a maritime force protection mission. Specifically, a multi-agent simulation emulates a tactical-level mission in which a U.S. Navy vessel returning to Naval Station, Norfolk, VA, encounters a variety of maritime surface threats. Data farming is the method used to address the research questions by applying high performance computing to the simulation model, with the intent of examining a wide range of possibilities and outcomes. The non-lethal capabilities are analyzed in their effectiveness to 1) determine intent, 2) deter inbound surface vessels, and 3) engage targets identified as hostile through the continuum of force.

The free electron laser (FEL) is proposed to meet the Navy's need for a speed-of-light high energy laser weapon capable of engaging a variety of targets including anti-ship cruise missiles, small boats, and theater ballistic missiles. A key attribute of FELs is good optical beam quality; in other words, they operate in only a few of the lowest-order transverse Gaussian modes. For weapons applications, a good mode quality is desired because it delivers the highest intensity on target ensuring a high level of lethality. A few higher-order modes can arise from the interaction of the electron beam with the optical beam, or from misalignments of the electron beam or resonator mirrors. High intensity on FEL optics can lead to mirror distortion due to heating and insufficient cooling of the mirror substrate. Mirror distortions, including astigmatism, can cause higher-order modes to appear affecting FEL performance. Therefore, it is important to quantify these higher-order modes because doing so uniquely identifies the optical field and may allow for corrective optics to single out the best modes for FEL lethality. This thesis will review free electron laser theory, and for the first time develop analytical solutions to quantify Hermite-Gaussian higher-order modes, develop a diagnostic for modal analysis, and determine the tolerance limits on mirror distortions.

The U.S. military has an increasing requirement to prepare for and conduct urban operations (UO). This UO requirement spreads across the spectrum of conflict, from high intensity combat to peacekeeping and humanitarian missions (Stability and Support Operations--SASO), often simultaneously. Regardless of which portion(s) of the warfare spectrum U.S. forces are involved in, urban engagements are inevitable and present major challenges. Superior standoff weapons ranges and combined arms tactics are quickly negated in the confined terrain of a complex and usually unfamiliar urban environment. Often considerably more challenging is the ability to differentiate the enemy from noncombatants--endangering our Soldiers and their mission. Conventional forces, armed only with traditional weapons, normally have two options: the threat of a violent response (passive) or the use of deadly force (active). These two extremes have virtually no middle ground. The reluctance of military and/or peacekeeping forces to employ deadly force on unconfirmed enemy targets creates a vulnerability. This vulnerability may be mitigated by equipping a small combat unit (SCU) with a viable alternative to deadly force-- non-lethal weapons (NLWs). Using an imperfect friend or foe identification modeling framework within an agent-based simulation (ABS), an NLW is essentially used to interrogate (determine the intent of the person in order to identify friend or foe) rather than attempt to incapacitate a target. To determine the impacts of employing NLWs in an urban combat environment (with civilians on the battlefield), three factors were varied across 15 design points: the ability of U.S. military forces to positively identify a target, the range of the selected NLW, and the distribution/number of NLWs in an SCU. By replicating each design point and analyzing the resulting output data, the following insights were determined: the use of NLWs does not degrade U.S. survivability; NLWs are essential to neutralizing suicide attacks; and NLWs decrease civilian casualties.