This study aims at developing a model to estimate flood damage cost caused in Gonaives, Haiti by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. In order to reach this goal, the influence of income, inundation duration and inundation depth, slope, population density and distance to major roads on the loss costs was investigated. Surveyed data were analyzed using Excel and ArcGIS 10 software. The ordinary least square and the geographically weighted regression analyses were used to predict flood damage costs. Then, the estimates were delineated using voronoi geostatistical map tool. As a result, the factors account for the costs as high as 83%. The flood damage cost in a household varies between 24,315 through 37,693 Haitian Gourdes (approximately 607.875 through 942.325 U.S. Dollars). Severe damages were spotted in the urban area and in the rural section of Bassin whereas very low and low losses are essentially found in Labranle. The urban area was more severely affected by comparison with the rural area. Damages in the urban area are estimated at 41,206,869.57USD against 698,222,174.10 17,455,554.35USD in the rural area. In the urban part, damages were more severe in Raboteau-Jubilée and in Downtown but Bigot-Parc Vincent had the highest overall damage cost estimated at 9,729,368.95 USD. The lowest cost 7,602,040.42USD was recorded in Raboteau. Approximately, 39.38% of the rural area underwent very low to moderate damages. Bassin was the most severely struck by the 2004 floods, but Bayonnais turned out to have the highest loss cost: 4,988,487.66 USD. Bassin along with Labranle had the least damage cost, 2,956,131.11 and 2,268,321.41 USD respectively. Based on the findings, we recommended the implementation and diversification of income-generating activities, the maintenance and improvement of drains, sewers and gullies cleaning and the establishment of conservation practices upstream of the watersheds. In addition, the model should be applied and validated using actual official records as reference data. Finally, the use of a calculation-based approach is suggested to determine flood damage costs in order to reduce subjectivity during surveys.

China has undergone significant urban growth and industrialization over the last 30 years and its incredible development continues to move ahead at an increasingly rapid pace. In terms of urban expansion, China has just recently surpassed the world’s average urbanization rate of 50%, as it moves its massive population from rural to urban areas at an astonishing speed. It’s massive population and fast urbanizing speed aside, China is also unique in terms of its socio-political system and historical-cultural context: it is a hybrid of government planning and market forces. Since it encompasses a large part of the global population and has had a vastly different urbanization experience than that of Western countries, around which most theories are based, studying China’s urbanization is an opportunity to contribute to the field of urban studies in an unprecedented manner. However, these differences also make it difficult to develop a comprehensive study of China’s urban system since the predominant theories in the field are best suited to Western cities. This research rises to this challenge by systematically studying the relationship between the socioeconomic and biophysical processes in the Chinese urban system to understand the interaction between human and physical factors, and the landscape patterns that result from these interactions. This complex urban system is examined using a hierarchical, top-down approach. At the highest level is a Macro-scale analysis of the national urban system, followed by a study of the regional urban system: the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area at the Meso-scale, and finally a Micro-scale examination with a focus on the city of Beijing. Since urban systems develop over both time and space, the urban system is analyzed spatio-temporally on all three levels. Research at the national scale is composed of two parts. First, the challenges and opportunities of China’s urban development since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 are investigated in a general context. The institutional barriers that impede the management and continuation of China’s urban development are also discussed. Rank-size Analysis and satellite images are used to present the structural transitions of city scaling and urban clusters. These changes come with a series of challenges that are also iterated and discussed. This is followed by an analysis of the spatial distribution and transition patterns of China’s urban system using Centrographic Analysis, particularly since the post-1979 reforms. Second, the Macro-scale research focuses on a study of the urban hierarchy that is based on inter-city interactions as determined by the Synthesized Gravity Model (SGM). Under this model socioeconomic variables are synthesized and represented by the Influential Factor, while the Function Distance is derived from a Network Analysis that is based on multiple transportation methods. As an improvement on the conventional Gravity Model (GM), the SGM is used to accurately establish and represent the nodal structure of China’s urban system, the evolution of its hierarchical structure, and the relationships that exist between the nodal structure and socioeconomic factors. The results based on the SGM indicate that China’s national urban system is characterized by the emergence of urban clusters with stronger inter-city interactions since the 1990s. However, development among cities within certain urban clusters is not even, although the general pattern indicates a lessening inequality among cities. Spatially, while most cities at the top of the hierarchy are located in the east of China, cities in the middle and west of the country are also gaining higher positions in the hierarchy over time. On the Meso-scale, the applicability of the Cellular Automata (CA)-based SLEUTH model for regional urban growth pattern is studied through a focus on the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei). By integrating socioeconomic factors into a modified SLEUTH model, the urban growth dynamics and future development scenarios of the area are simulated and predicted. The results based on the CA model show that this region is characterized by a dynamic development pattern with high spreading and breeding growth rules that relies greatly on the growing transportation systems. It also allows for the projection of three possible future urban growth scenarios, each occurring under different environmental and development conditions, showing the future urban growth with or without further intervention. This research confirms that four factors play essential roles in the formulation of the urban growth mechanism of the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area: Urban policies, Industry restructuring, Rural-urban migration, and Reclassification of urban boundaries. The Micro-scale study of Beijing is conducted from two perspectives: the social and natural. The social aspect adopts the factorial ecology approach to identify the social landscape patterns and the factors that have shaped Beijing’s social space in 1990 and 2000. The social mosaic has experienced a significant change due to suburbanization, resulting in a more dynamic and complex internal structure since the 2000s. From a natural perspective, Beijing’s physical landscape patterns are extracted by processing remotely sensed images that have the same temporal span. The physical change through landscape metrics demonstrates that Beijing’s expansion has generated a more complex and fragmented land use/cover pattern. Meanwhile, transportation systems play a significant role in urban expansion, although the expansion across the space (zonal rings and directional sectors) is not even. Finally, the relationship between the social and physical landscapes is quantitatively defined by the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) technique, using physical landscape metrics as dependent variables and social areas as independent variables. The GWR is able to demonstrate the relationship between the social and physical landscapes at this level: as a city’s social mosaic becomes more varied over time it results in the fragmentation of that city’s physical space.

A large number of quantitative studies have examined social inequities in the geographic distribution of air pollution. Although previous research has made strides towards understanding the nature and extent of inequities, they have been limited methodologically in three ways. First, the presence of pollutants have been rarely linked to their adverse health effects, with many studies using proximity to sources as a proxy for risk. Second, there has been a tendency to study a single pollution source instead of assessing multiple types of sources. Finally, conventional statistical methods such as multivariate regression have been limited by their inability to discern spatial variations in the relationships between dependent and explanatory variables. This thesis addresses these gaps in environmental justice analysis of air pollution by using data from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 1999 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment in combination with 2000 U.S. Census data to evaluate inequities in the geography of cancer risks from hazardous air pollutants in Florida. The objective is to determine if there are racial/ethnic inequities in the distribution of estimated cancer risks from outdoor exposure to point and mobile sources of air pollutants, after controlling for well-documented contextual variables. The first phase of the study utilizes traditional correlation and regression techniques to reveal that cancer risk from most air pollution sources are distributed inequitably with respect to race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic state. In the second phase, geographically weighted regression is used along with choropleth mapping to explore the spatial nonstationarity of regression model parameters and geographic variations in the statistical association between cancer risks and various explanatory variables. Results indicate that while Black and Hispanic proportions remain consistent indicators of cancer risk from most pollution sources, these relationships vary across space within Florida. This thesis contributes to environmental justice analysis by demonstrating that conventional multivariate regression can hide important local variations in the relationships between environmental risk and explanatory variables such as race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Since this spatial nonstationarity can be significant within an entire region or a single urban area, understanding its nature and extent is imperative to advancing environmental justice goals.

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Open space provides a wide range of ecosystem services to communities. In growing communities, open space offers relief from congestion and other negative externalities associated with rapid development. To make effective policy and planning decisions pertaining to open space preservation, it is important to estimate monetary values of its benefits. In addition, assessing public opinions regarding open space provides information on demand and how residents value open space. This study estimated the monetary value of open space in Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast communities. The study also collected information on coastal residents’ attitudes towards open space, working waterfronts, and their willingness to support waterfront open space preservation monetarily. Two methodological approaches were employed to estimate the monetary value of waterfront open space: contingent valuation (CVM) and hedonic price (HPM) methods. Data were collected using a mail survey, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), and publicly available data sources such as the U.S. Census. Data were analyzed using an interval regression, ordinary least squares, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. Mail survey results indicated that the majority of residents valued open space and were willing to pay from $80.52 to $162.14 per household as estimated by four different interval-censored econometric models. Respondent’s membership in groups promoting conservation goals, income, age, and residence duration were major factors associated with their willingness to pay. Results from the HPM indicated proximities to waterfronts, with the exception of bayous, were positively related to home prices, suggesting open space produced positive economic benefits. Findings from the HPM analysis using publicly available data were consistent and comparable with the results from the HPM that used MLS data. This similarity of results indicates the use of publicly available data is feasible in HPM analysis, which is important for broad applications of the method during city planning. In addition, GWR estimates provided site specific monetary values of waterfront open space benefits, which will be helpful for policymakers and city planners in developing site-specific conservation and preservation strategies. Findings can help formulate future decisions related to alternative development scenarios of coastal areas and conservation efforts to preserve open space.

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The spatial distribution of future population and employment has become a focus of recent academic enquiry and planning policy concerns. This is largely driven by the rapid urban expansion in major Australian cities and the need to plan ahead for new housing growth and demand for urban infrastructure and services. At a national level forecasts for population and employment are produced by the government and research institutions; however there is a further need to break these forecasts down to a disaggregate geographic scale for growth management within regions. Appropriate planning for the urban growth needs forecasts for fine-grained spatial units. This thesis has developed methodologies to predict the future settlement of the population, employment and urban form by applying a spatial disaggregation approach. The methodology uses the existing regional forecasts reported at regional geographic units and applies a novel spatially-based technique to step-down the regional forecasts to smaller geographical units. South East Queensland (SEQ) is the experimental context for the methodologies developed in the thesis, being one of the fastest-growing metropolitan regions in Australia. The research examines whether spatial disaggregation methodologies that can be used to enhance the forecasts for urban planning purposes and to derive a deeper understanding of the urban spatial structure under growth conditions. The first part of this thesis develops a method by which the SEQ population forecasts can be spatially disaggregated. This is related to a classical problem in geographical analysis called to modifiable area unit problem, where spatial data disaggregation may give inaccurate results due to spatial heterogeneity in the explanatory variables. Several statistical regression and dasymetric techniques are evaluated to spatially disaggregate population forecasts over the study area and to assess their relative accuracies. An important contribution arising from this research is that: i) it extends the dasymetric method beyond its current simple form to techniques that incorporate more complex density assumptions to disaggregate the data and, ii) it selects a method based on balancing the costs and errors of the disaggregation for a study area. The outputs of the method are spatially disaggregated population forecasts across the smaller areas that can be directly used for urban form analysis and are also directly available for subsequent employment disaggregation. The second part in this thesis develops a method to spatially disaggregate the employment forecasts and examine their impact on the urban form. A new method for spatially disaggregating the employment data is evaluated; it analyses the trend and spatial pattern of historic regional employment patterns based on employment determinants (for example, the local population and the proximity of an area to a shopping centre). The method we apply, namely geographically weighted regression (GWR), accounts for spatial effects of data autocorrelation and heterogeneity. Autocorrelation is where certain variables for employment determinants are related in space, and hence violate traditional statistical independence assumptions, and heterogeneity is where the associations between variables change across space. The method uses a locally-fitted relationship to estimate employment in the smaller geography whilst being constrained by the regional forecast. Results show that, by accounting for spatial heterogeneity in the local dependency of employment, the GWR method generates superior estimates over a global regression model. The spatially disaggregate projections developed in this thesis can be used to better understand questions on urban form. From a planning perspective, the results of spatial disaggregation indicate that the future growth of the population for SEQ is likely to maintain a spatially-dispersed growth pattern, whilst the employment is likely to follow a more polycentric distribution focused around the new activity centres. Overall, the thesis demonstrates that the spatial disaggregation method can be applied to supplement the regional forecasts to seek a deeper understanding of the future urban growth patterns. The development, application and validation of the spatial disaggregation methods will enhance the planner’s toolbox whilst responding to the data issues to inform urban planning and future development in a region.

Various methods have been used to estimate the amount of above ground forest biomass across landscapes and to create biomass maps for specific stands or pixels across ownership or project areas. Without an accurate estimation method, land managers might end up with incorrect biomass estimate maps, which could lead them to make poorer decisions in their future management plans. Previous research has shown that nearest-neighbor imputation methods can accurately estimate forest volume across a landscape by relating variables of interest to ground data, satellite imagery, and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data. Alternatively, parametric models, such as linear and non-linear regression and geographic weighted regression (GWR), have been used to estimate net primary production and tree diameter. The goal of this study was to compare various imputation methods to predict forest biomass, at a project planning scale (<20,000 acres) on the Malheur National Forest, located in eastern Oregon, USA. In this study I compared the predictive performance of, 1) linear regression, GWR, gradient nearest neighbor (GNN), most similar neighbor (MSN), random forest imputation, and k-nearest neighbor (k-nn) to estimate biomass (tons/acre) and basal area (sq. feet per acre) across 19,000 acres on the Malheur National Forest and 2) MSN and k-nn when imputing forest biomass at spatial scales ranging from 5,000 to 50,000 acres. To test the imputation methods a combination of ground inventory plots, LiDAR data, satellite imagery, and climate data were analyzed, and their root mean square error (RMSE) and bias were calculated. Results indicate that for biomass prediction, the k-nn (k=5) had the lowest RMSE and least amount of bias. The second most accurate method consisted of the k-nn (k=3), followed by the GWR model, and the random forest imputation. The GNN method was the least accurate. For basal area prediction, the GWR model had the lowest RMSE and least amount of bias. The second most accurate method was k-nn (k=5), followed by k-nn (k=3), and the random forest method. The GNN method, again, was the least accurate. The accuracy of MSN, the current imputation method used by the Malheur Nation Forest, and k-nn (k=5), the most accurate imputation method from the second chapter, were then compared over 6 spatial scales: 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 acres. The root mean square difference (RMSD) and bias were calculated for each of the spatial scale samples to determine which was more accurate. MSN was found to be more accurate at the 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, 30,000, and 40,000 acre scales. K-nn (k=5) was determined to be more accurate at the 50,000 acre scale. / Graduation date: 2013

This thesis investigates the significant factors affecting municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Turkey. For this purpose, both spatial and non-spatial tech&not / niques are utilized. Non-spatial technique is ordinary least squares (OLS) regression while spatial techniques employed are simultaneous spatial autoregression (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The independent variables include socio-economic, demographic and climatic indicators. The results show that nearer provinces tend to have similar solid waste generation rate. Moreover, it is shown that the effects of independent variables vary among provinces. It is demonstrated that educational status and unemployment are significant factors of waste generation in Turkey.