Since 1990, thirteen fires over 100,000 acres in size have burned in California seven of which were recorded to be some of the most destructive wildfires of all time (California Department of Forestry & Fire Protection 2013). To aid the development of policy that reduces the destruction caused by wildfires, it is important to evaluate how risk changes through time in communities that are expanding into fire-prone areas. The objective of this study is to discover how the likelihood of structural loss is changing in WUI as newer; more fire resilient structures replace older structures on the edges of the WUI. Geographical Information Systems and remote sensing techniques were used to observe changes in urbanization, structural materials, housing density and defensible space over time in the communities of Rancho Santa Fe, Ramona and Julian in San Diego County. Fire Risk ratings were calculated using the equation Fire Risk= Hazard – Mitigation. Mitigation scores for each structure were informed using a binary logistic regression of variables influencing home loss in the Witch Creek Fire. Fire Risk Ratings were given to the 11,747 structures in the three communities for the years 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2012. The study found that the initial 0-1.5m zone around the home is the most critical for defensible space. In this zone, increased tree cover increases the odds of structure loss by over double that of grass cover. In Rancho Santa Fe and Julian, the majority of very high risk homes were located in high income communities despite moderate mitigation due to very high fire hazard levels. In Ramona most very high fire risk homes were located in lower income areas due to poor mitigation levels. Rancho Santa Fe and Julian decreased their fire risk over the 7 year study period with improved mitigation, Rancho Santa Fe improved the most (1.7% decrease in Very High and High risk homes). The proportion of very high fire risk homes increased in Ramona by .5% over the 7 year study period. Development on the outskirts of the WUI could increase the risk of the overall community if proper construction standards are not met and defensible space is not implemented. If fire resistant communities are constructed and maintained to high standards of defensible space, they could potentially provide a buffer for older high fire risk homes.

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Rosebay rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum L.) is an ericaceous shrub commonly found in riparian areas of the Appalachian Mountains. After more than a century of fire exclusion in the U.S., the distribution of R. maximum and its dominance of forest understories have increased. Rhododendron expansion has caused a decline in overstory regeneration and the potential for dangerous fuel conditions around suburban structures near the wildland-urban interface. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of seven silvicultural treatments on both the fuel loading within an R. maximum thicket and the control of R. maximum as a forest weed. The final objective of the project was to determine the cost effectiveness of each implemented treatment. Due primarily to moisture conditions, a single prescribed burn was relatively ineffective in reducing fuel loading and causing R. maximum mortality. Mechanical cutting caused a drastic shift in the size-class distribution of R. maximum but resulted in heavy sprouting and increased fuel loading. Herbicide application did not reduce or increase fuel loading and was important in R. maximum control only when combined with other treatments. The prescribed burning treatment was the least expensive individual treatment while mechanical cutting was the most expensive. Combination treatments showed increased effectiveness in controlling R. maximum but were more expensive than the individual treatments. The results of the treatments from this study will be used over the long term to demonstrate to land managers the effects of vegetation control on rhododendron. / Master of Science

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abstract: Increasingly, wildfires are threatening communities, forcing evacuations, damaging property, and causing loss of life. This is in part due to a century of wildfire policy and an influx of people moving to the wildland urban interface (WUI). National programs have identified and promoted effective wildfire mitigation actions to reduce wildfire risk; yet, many homeowners do not perform these actions. Based on previous literature and using the theory of planned behavior (TPB), this study proposes an integrated wildfire mitigation behavioral model to assess and identify the factors that influence homeowners’ wildfire mitigation behaviors. Specifically, the study tests the validity of the theory of planned behavior as a foundational model in exploring wildfire mitigation behaviors, develops and empirically tests a wildfire mitigation behavioral model, and explores the role of homeowner associations (HOA) on wildfire mitigation behaviors. Structural equation modeling was used on data collected from homeowners with property in the WUI in Prescott, Arizona. Results suggest TPB provides an acceptable model in describing homeowner wildfire mitigation behavior. For HOA residents, attitudes toward wildfire mitigation behaviors play an important role in predicting intentions to perform these behaviors. Additionally, perceived constraints directly influenced actual mitigation actions. For non-HOA residents, subjective norms influenced intentions to mitigate. Implications for research and local wildfire mitigation programs and policy are discussed. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Community Resources and Development 2016

I utilized forest growth model (FVS-FFE) and fire simulation software (FlamMap, Randig), integrated through GIS software (ArcMap9.3), to quantify the impacts varied landscape-scale fuel treatments have on short-term onsite carbon loss, long-term onsite carbon storage, burn probability, conditional flame length, and mean fire size. Thirteen fuel treatment scenarios were simulated on a 42,000 hectare landscape in northern California: one untreated, three proposed by the US Forest Service, and nine that were spatially-optimized and developed with the Treatment Optimization Model in FlamMap. The nine scenarios developed in FlamMap varied by treatment intensity (10%, 20%, and 30% of the landscape treated) and treatment type (prescribed fire, mastication and thin + burn). Each scenario was subjected to 10,000 simulated wildfires with random ignition locations in order to develop burn probability and average flame length values for each scenario. I also recorded mean fire size for each scenario. I used the burn probability values to represent the likelihood of future wildfire occurrence, which I incorporated into our long-term onsite carbon storage projections. Our results suggest that the influence landscape-scale fuel treatments have on carbon dynamics and fire behavior metrics (mean burn probability, flame length and mean fire size) are highly dependent upon the treatment arrangement, type, and intensity. The results suggest that treating 20% of the landscape maximizes long-term carbon storage and that prescribed fire minimizes short-term carbon loss and maximizes onsite long-term carbon storage. Treating 20% of the landscape also appears to be the optimal treatment intensity for reducing fire behavior metrics, and treating beyond this level produces diminishing returns in reduction of fire behavior. When treating 20% of the landscape, site-specific treatments appear to perform well in comparison to spatially-optimized treatments.

Human disruption of climate, habitat, and ignition has altered the behavior of wildland fire at local to continental scales. In many regions, novel fire regimes are emerging that threaten to exceed the capacity for local management to protect human wellbeing and ecosystem function. Simultaneous changes in climate, species composition, and fire management have resulted in extreme fire behavior in many regions. For the Western United States, the emerging novel fire regime consists of more frequent, severe, and intense wildfires, with annual area burned by wildfire having doubled and high-severity wildfire area having increased 8-fold since the 1980s. The impacts of these increasing stresses in the Great Basin is especially pressing when combined with the many years of historically poor resource management. Here we complete a literature review of changing wildfire regimes globally (chapter 1) and a study of how the abiotic and biotic aspects of aquatic ecosystems stabilize after a megafire in the western United States (chapter 2).

For roughly the past 200 years land-managers have used the practice of “muirburning” to manipulate the structure of heather (Calluna vulgaris) to create a patchwork of habitat structures able to provide forage and nesting sites for red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) as well as grazing for sheep (Ovis aries) and red deer (Cervus elaphus). This thesis investigates both the behaviour and impact of management fires in recognition of the need to develop multi-aim land management practices that ensure both continued productivity and protection of biodiversity in the face of climatic and environmental change. Fuel structure and loading are crucial controlling factors on both fire behaviour and impact governing both rate of spread and heat release to the ground surface. A visual obstruction method is developed that estimates total and fine fuel loading as well as the structure of the heather canopy. In order to adequately understand fire impact a dimensional analysis approach is taken to estimating the mass of burnt heather stems. Experiments at a number of spatial and temporal scales relate variation in heather fuel moisture content to stand structure and variation in weather conditions. Monitoring shows moisture contents to be relatively stable temporally, but spatially variable. Periods of extreme low moisture contents in early spring are associated with frozen ground, winter cuticle damage and physiological drought. Such conditions may have contributed to the large number of wildfires in 2003. A replicated plot design was used to investigate the effect of weather conditions and fuel loading on fire behaviour. An empirical approach is taken to fire behaviour modelling with equations describing rate of spread and fireline intensity being developed on the basis of fuel structure descriptors and windspeed. The theoretical negative correlation between fuel bed density and rate of spread is demonstrated to hold true for heather stands, while the impact of heterogeneity in fuel bed structure is also investigated. Redundancy Analysis is used to investigate the influence of multiple predictors on a number of aspects of fire behaviour including: rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length and ground surface heating. Data from this and previous studies are used to ground-truth a number of fire behaviour prediction systems including BehavePlus and the Canadian Fire Behaviour Prediction System. Finally linkages between fire behaviour, fire severity and heather regeneration are investigated. A number of proxy measures of ‘Immediate Severity’ are tested and used to examine the influence of fires on plant regeneration. The post-fire development of stands is shown to relate primarily to stand age and structure before burning, and to post-fire substrates rather than variation in fire behaviour and severity.