<p>Safety analysis is a process involving several techniques.The purpose of this thesis is to test and develop methodssuitable for the safety analysis of railway risks and railwaysafety measures. Safety analysis is a process comprisingproblem identification, risk estimation, valuation of safetyand economic analysis. The main steps are described in separatechapters, each of which includes a discussion of the methodsand a review of previous research, followed by the contributionof this author. Although the safety analysis proceduredescribed can be used for analysing railway safety, it has suchgeneral foundations that it can be used wherever safety isimportant and wherever safety measures are evaluated. Itcombines cost benefit analysis with criteria for thedistribution and the absolute levels of risk.</p><p>Risks are estimated with both statistical and risk analysismethods. Historical data on railway accidents are analysed andstatistical models fitted to describe trends in accident ratesand consequences. A risk analysis model is developed usingfault tree and event tree techniques, together with Monte Carlosimulation, to calculate risks for passenger train derailments.The results are compared with the statistical analysis ofhistorical data.</p><p>People's valuation of safety in different contexts isanalysed, with relative values estimated in awillingness-to-pay study. A combination of focus groups andindividual questionnaires is used. Two different methods areused to estimate the value of safety and the results arecompared. Comparisons are also made with other studies.</p><p>Different approaches for safety analysis and methods foreconomic analysis of safety are reviewed. Cost-benefit analysisas a decision criterion is discussed and a study on theeconomic effectsof a traffic control system is presented.</p><p>There are several results of the work. Historical data showsa decrease in the accident rate. The average consequence ofeach accident has not changed over time. The risk analysismodel produces comparable results and enables analysis ofvarious safety measures. The valuation study shows that peopleprefer the prevention of small-scale accidents over theprevention of larger, catastrophic accidents. There are onlysmall differences in the valuation of safety in differentcontexts.</p>

Concerns regarding energy security, resource sustainability, and environmental protection have heightened interests in renewable fuels and sparked the research and development of ethanol as a transportation fuel. This study examines consumers’ willingness to pay for ethanol from various potential feedstocks; corn, switchgrass and wood wastes. Data was collected via a survey of fuel consumers across the United States in 2009. Results show that consumers have a preference for E85 (a fuel blend with 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline) from corn, switchgrass and wood wastes compared to E0 (gasoline) and a preference for E85 from switchgrass and wood wastes, but not corn when compared to E10 (10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline). Also, consumers have a preference for E85 compared to E10 but not compared to E0. Mean WTP for E85 was insignificant across all models, but significant for all other product attributes; percentage of fuel imported, percentage of greenhouse gas emissions reduced, and the proximity of fuel in driving distance. This suggests a WTP for a combination of fuel attributes associated with ethanol rather than just for E85. Results suggest that price and proximity of the fuel have a greater impact on fuel selection than percentage of the fuel imported and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Republicans had a positive WTP for E85 compared to E10 and a negative WTP for E85 compared to E0 regardless of feedstock, which may suggest that Republicans actually have no preference for E85; however, these findings may also suggest that Republicans view E85 as a voluntary “policy” whereas E10 is an example of government intrusion in the free market. Thus, they may ultimately have preferences over the manner in which the blend is being introduced to the market. Across all models, those undecided in political affiliation, those previously familiar with ethanol, and those who prefer to devote U.S. farmland to food instead of fuel generally exhibited a lower WTP for E85 while Westerners, those worried about the environment, and those believe that reducing dependence on foreign oil is more important than environmental protection generally had a greater WTP for E85.

In September 2009 exploratory testing of an old geothermal power well caused a blowout at the El Tatio geothermal field of northern Chile. El Tatio is the largest geyser field in the southern hemisphere. The blowout was a paradigm-shifting event for the management of the El Tatio geothermal field and drew attention to the disparity and critical nature of scientific information sharing. This study uses the El Tatio incident as a case study for examining problems of common-pool resource management and geothermal energy development. It explores how differing valuations of geothermal resources resulted in a breakdown of coherent regulation and negative outcomes for all stakeholders. Contingent valuation methods were used to create an elicitive interview process in order to assess how differences in valuation drove these conflicts and negative outcomes. The sharing of scientific information through Decision Support Systems (DSS) is identified as an important element in resolving these conflicts and creating new policies for common-pool resource management. These methods are presented as tools that can be used by stakeholders to find common ground and seek mutually beneficial outcomes. In addition, these tools can help with the critical issue of social perception of scientific data and science driven solutions to these problems. This study posits that the path forward is to ensure not only that scientific data is communicated in modes appropriate to the community and problem at hand, but that the acquisition and interpretation of this data is informed by stakeholder needs. / text

In this dissertation a new method is proposed to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP). The method works as an additional interview scene appended to conjoint analysis and it is named throughout this dissertation as the Price Estimation scene (PE scene). In the preceding conjoint analysis price is not included as an attribute. Instead the exchange rate between conjoint utilities and willingness-to-pay is estimated in the PE scene. This is achieved by the use of product stimuli in addition to price scales that are adapted for each respondent in the interview reflecting his or her previously estimated part-worth utilities. In the PE scene the respondents are presented with a sequence of product choices with assigned prices and indicate whether they would actually purchase each of the presented product profiles. The PE scene is a method to estimate willingness-to-pay at an individual level based only on each respondent's provided information. Shortcomings of existing approaches that use conjoint analysis, such as a missing choice rule as well as problems that arise when price is included as an attribute are overcome. The PE scene was tested in an empirical investigation in which the WTPs of the customers of the Nokia online shop in Germany for different product bundles were estimated. (author's abstract)

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This project investigates the impacts of nutrition merchandising on consumers’ willingness to pay for local tomatoes and strawberries. The data come from survey of Kentucky and Ohio residents in June 2011. Two thousand one hundred twelve individuals from Kentucky and Ohio were surveyed, to find out the impact of selfawareness of health benefits and health benefits information on their willingness to pay. The consumers were offered one of the three survey versions. The versions varied by how much nutrition information was provided to the consumer related to both strawberries and tomatoes – otherwise identical. A had the most, B had text only, and C omitted any nutritional benefits. This nutrition preamble was offered just before doing a payment card willingness-to-pay experiment. Standard demographic data were also included. The goal of the study was to see if and in what way the provision (or nonprovision) of this information, as well as consumers’ own knowledge of nutritional benefits of local foods, their beliefs and lifestyle influenced their willingness to pay for these local products.

Parasite control is important to horse health and horse owners should feel highly concerned about the proper treatment of parasites. In the past 30 years, veterinary science has made important advances in treating parasites and provided new products and strategies to optimize treatment and prevention. However, horse owners and managers have been slow to adopt these new recommendations. This study investigates why the transition has not occurred as expected. It examines issues related to the decision-making process of horse owners and managers as they relate to deworming strategies. In addition, it investigates current deworming approaches as well as attitudes towards alternative parasite control strategies, and tries to describe the financial considerations corresponding to each strategy. To this end, a questionnaire was distributed to Thoroughbred farms in Kentucky. The first part of the questionnaire examined the actual approaches of farm managers and characterized the Kentucky Thoroughbred farms. Most farm managers appear to be concerned about drug resistance in parasites and incorporated veterinarian advice in defining their deworming program; however, almost three-quarters of them were still following the traditional rotational deworming program. Based on a conjoint experiment, we were able to evaluate the willingness-to-pay of farm managers for different attributes of a deworming strategy – time and effort spent, decrease in health risks, drug resistance in parasites, and price. The study showed that farm managers were willing to pay a premium for a strategy that is guaranteed “non-resistant” and that decreased health risk by 5%, while they expected a discount for a strategy that requires much time and effort.

Hawaii’s pristine ocean and tropical environment is a keystone of Hawaii tourism and the state economy. Water pollution from stormwater and development threatens the beach quality to both residents and tourists. In order to understand the lost nonmarket value, we assess changes in quality of beach characteristics including water and sand quality, swimming safety conditions, and congestion using a Discrete Choice Experiment of recreational beach users. Further, we study willingness to pay (WTP) for water management strategies in Hawaii using another discrete choice experiment, including structural and nonstructural Best Management Practices, testing, monitoring, and educational efforts. Using a mixed logit model, beach quality results suggest similar preferences among resident and tourists. Both groups consistently have higher WTP to avoid poor quality levels versus obtaining excellent levels. Additionally, water quality is the single most important attribute. For the policy discrete choice experiment, both parties exhibit similar ranking of WTP to initiate water quality management strategies, with improved testing methods followed by education having the highest WTP. Lastly, we use Benefit-Cost analysis to find that all significant management strategies may be viable, since WTP is greater than the predicted cost of implementation based on expert opinion of Hawaiian policy leaders.

China is the world’s largest pork producer and consumer, and Hubei Province is one of the top pork production provinces in China. Since problems and risks have led to large-scale reduction of pork production and farmers’ income, Chinese government offers various policy measures to help farmers. Breeding sow insurance is considered as one of the most effective measures started in 2007. To better understand farmer’s need for breeding sow insurance and make proper policy insights, our research is the first empirical study in Hubei Province and one of the pioneer studies investigate farmer’s willingness to pay(WTP) for breeding sow insurance premium and preferred coverage level. Survey questionnaires were distributed to breeding sow farmers in 5 townships from Shayang County, Hubei Province. Based on random utility theory, we use tobit model to examine the factors that affect farmer’s WTP and preferred coverage level. The results showed that famers’ average WTP for premium was ¥14.4 and average preferred coverage level was ¥1191, both exceeded current values. Farmers’ trust towards insurance companies, household income, and knowledge about breeding sow insurance significantly affect their WTP and preferred coverage level.