The Weibull distribution, an extreme value distribution, is frequently used to model survival, reliability, wind speed, and other data. One reason for this is its flexibility; it can mimic various distributions like the exponential or normal. The two-parameter Weibull has a shape (γ) and scale (β) parameter. Parameter estimation has been an ongoing search to find efficient, unbiased, and minimal variance estimators. Through data analysis and simulation studies, the following three methods of estimation will be discussed and compared: maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), method of moments estimation (MME), and median rank regression (MRR). The analysis of wind speed data from the TW Daniels Experimental Forest are used for this study to test the performance and flexibility of the Weibull distribution.

The ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA), and the 3 km Norwegian Reanalysis (NORA3) are reference datasets that are available for industry and research. The resolution of 3km in both the NORA3 and NEWA datasets sets them apart, while ERA5, with its 31km resolution, continues to serve as a reliable data source that is widely used in the industry. The study offers a thorough analysis of three datasets from three research stations in Sweden, which are accessible through the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS). It has been discovered that all three reference datasets exhibit a strong alignment with the measured data. However, NORA3 and ERA5 outperform NEWA in wind speed and direction estimation. The computation of Annual Energy Production (AEP) using WindPro is performed. We examine the representativeness of the correlation coefficient between the Weibull scale and shape parameters, the agreement of wind rose distributions, and the estimated AEP.

No description available.

[pt] A energia eólica tem crescido de forma estável no Brasil nos últimos anos. Para impulsioná-la, é crucial considerar as mudanças climáticas, já que sua geração é altamente influenciada pelo clima. Por isso, é fundamental incorporar variáveis climáticas externas na modelagem das séries eólicas, contribuindo para reduzir as incertezas. Os Modelos Periódicos Autorregressivos com Variáveis Exógenas (PARX) representam uma abordagem viável para cumprir esse propósito, incluindo a variável exógena ENSO. No presente estudo, realizou-se a modelagem das séries de velocidade do vento nos estados do Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina. Nesse sentido, foi considerada a covariância entre esses estados em cada região brasileira para avaliar a correlação espacial entre eles, criando a modelagem PARX-Cov. Além disso, a correlação entre os indicadores do fenômeno ENSO também foi considerada para viabilizar a previsão out-of-sample das variáveis climáticas, essa utilizada para a simulação de cenários de velocidade de vento. Ao comparar a modelagem do PARX e PARX-Cov, com o modelo vigente no setor elétrico brasileiro, observou-se um desempenho superior nos modelos propostos para a simulação de realizações futuras das séries de velocidade do vento. O modelo PARX-Cov com o índice ONI Acumulado é o mais adequado para Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina. O PARX-Cov com o índice SOI é mais apropriado para o Rio Grande do Norte. Para Alagoas e Sergipe, o PARX com o índice ONI Acumulado é o mais indicado, enquanto o PARX com Niño 4 Acumulado é melhor para a Paraíba. / [en] Wind energy has been steadily growing in Brazil in recent years. To boost its growth, it is crucial to consider climate change, as wind energy generation is highly influenced by the weather. Therefore, it is essential to incorporate external climatic variables into the modeling of wind series, helping to reduce uncertainties. Periodic Autoregressive Models with Exogenous Variables (PARX) represent a viable approach to achieve this, including the ENSO exogenous variable. In the present study, wind speed series were modeled in the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina. In this context, the covariance between these states in each Brazilian region was considered to assess the spatial correlation among them, creating the PARX-Cov modeling. Furthermore, the correlation between ENSO phenomenon indicators was also considered to enable out-of-sample forecasting of climatic variables, used for simulating wind speed scenarios. When comparing the PARX and PARX-Cov modeling with the current model in the Brazilian electric sector, the proposed models showed superior performance in simulating future wind speed series. The PARX-Cov model with the Accumulated ONI index is most suitable for Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina. The PARX-Cov model with the SOI index is more appropriate for Rio Grande do Norte. For Alagoas and Sergipe, the PARX model with the Accumulated ONI index is the most recommended, while the PARX model with Accumulated Niño 4 is better for Paraíba.

Suite à un stage avec la compagnie Hatch, nous possédons des jeux de données composés de séries chronologiques de vitesses de vent mesurées à divers sites dans le monde, sur plusieurs années. Les ingénieurs éoliens de la compagnie Hatch utilisent ces jeux de données conjointement aux banques de données d’Environnement Canada pour évaluer le potentiel éolien afin de savoir s’il vaut la peine d’installer des éoliennes à ces endroits. Depuis quelques années, des compagnies offrent des simulations méso-échelle de vitesses de vent, basées sur divers indices environnementaux de l’endroit à évaluer. Les ingénieurs éoliens veulent savoir s’il vaut la peine de payer pour ces données simulées, donc si celles-ci peuvent être utiles lors de l’estimation de la production d’énergie éolienne et si elles pourraient être utilisées lors de la prévision de la vitesse du vent long terme. De plus, comme l’on possède des données mesurées de vitesses de vent, l’on en profitera pour tester à partir de diverses méthodes statistiques différentes étapes de l’estimation de la production d’énergie. L’on verra les méthodes d’extrapolation de la vitesse du vent à la hauteur d’une turbine éolienne et l’on évaluera ces méthodes à l’aide de l’erreur quadratique moyenne. Aussi, on étudiera la modélisation de la vitesse du vent par la distributionWeibull et la variation de la distribution de la vitesse dans le temps. Finalement, l’on verra à partir de la validation croisée et du bootstrap si l’utilisation de données méso-échelle est préférable à celle de données des stations de référence, en plus de tester un modèle où les deux types de données sont utilisées pour prédire la vitesse du vent. Nous testerons la méthodologie globale présentement utilisée par les ingénieurs éoliens pour l’estimation de la production d’énergie d’un point de vue statistique, puis tenterons de proposer des changements à cette méthodologie, qui pourraient améliorer l’estimation de la production d’énergie annuelle. / Following an internship with the company Hatch, we have access to datasets that are composed of wind speed time series measured at different sites accross the world and over several years. The wind speed engineers from Hatch are using these datasets jointly with Environment Canada databases in order to ascertain the wind energy potential of these sites and to know whether it is worth installing wind turbines there. For a few years, some companies are also offering mesoscale simulations of wind speed based on different environmental characteristics from the site we want to evaluate. We would like to know if it is worth paying for those mesoscale datasets and if they can be used to provide better estimations of the wind energy potential. Among other things, these data could be used to provide a better estimation of the long term mean wind speed. Since we already possess measured datasets, we will also use them to test, with statistical methods, the methodology currently used and the different steps leading to an estimation of the wind energy production. First of all, we will see what are the different methods that could be used to extrapolate wind speed to a wind turbine’s height and we will evaluate those methods with the mean squared extrapolation error. Also, we will study wind distribution modelling by the Weibull distribution and consider its variability over time. Finally, cross-validation and block bootstrap will be used to see whether we should use mesoscale data instead of wind data from Environment Canada or whether it would even be beneficial to use both kind of data to predict wind speed. In summary, the whole methodology used by wind speed engineers to estimate the energy production will be tested from a statistical point of view and we will attempt to propose changes in this methodology that could improve the estimation of the wind speed annual energy production.

Le laboratoire TELE a développé une méthode d'évaluation des paramètres qui déterminent l'état de la surface de la mer, à partir de mesures effectuées à distance par une combinaison d'instruments hyperfréquences embarqués à bord de satellites. La résolution de ce problème nécessite de construire un modèle statistique de la surface de la mer comme fonction d'un nombre limité de paramètres pertinents, de développer le modèle de diffusion des ondes électromagnétiques par la mer rugueuse, de simuler, pour un ensemble donné d'états de mer, les mesures attendues des satellites et de mettre au point la méthode de calcul des paramètres descriptifs de l'état de la mer à partir des mesures des satellites (inversion). L'objectif de cette thèse est d'analyser, de développer et d'implémenter la modélisation statistique de la surface de la mer et de valider ce modèle, appelé UCL-3, à partir des données réelles. Notre recherche a permis de déterminer les quatre paramètres pertinents qui décrivent l'état de la mer. La structure des petites vagues résulte de la réaction instantanée de la surface au vent local et peut être décrite à l'aide de ce seul paramètre. Par contre, la structure des grandes vagues contient l'histoire de la vague ; c'est pourquoi, nous avons proposé de la décrire non seulement en fonction de la vitesse du vent mais aussi de la pente significative des vagues, de la distance d'action au vent et du nombre d'onde au pic du spectre des déplacements de la surface. La qualité de ce modèle a été confrontée avec des données de terrain, en particulier celles de la bouée BEATRICE (située au large de l'île d'Ouessant, France). Ensuite, le modèle a été validé à l'aide de données mesurées par des satellites. Nous avons porté une attention particulière à la mission TANDEM, qui combine en synergie des données provenant de divers senseurs à bord des satellites ERS-1 et ERS-2. Le modèle UCL-3 réduit la quantité des données pour lesquelles la procédure des précédentes recherches ne fonctionnait pas. Enfin, les grandeurs géophysiques obtenues ont été comparées avec des mesures simultanées « in situ » de bouées NOAA situées dans l'Océan Atlantique, l'Océan Pacifique Nord et le Golfe d'Alaska. Cette comparaison satellite – bouée montre que les résultats obtenus par l'inversion des mesures radars concordent avec ceux mesurés « in situ » par des bouées. / The Telecommunications and Remote Sensing Laboratory of UCL has developed a method to retrieve the sea surface state parameters, from remote sensing measurements collected by a combination of microwave satellite payloads. This approach has required to construct a rough sea surface statistical model (wave displacement spectrum, long wave slope probability density function, ... ) as a function of a limited number of relevant sea state parameters, to develop an electromagnetic scattering model suitable for the rough sea surface model, to simulate radar and radiometric measurements for a given set of sea states and to develop a computational inversion method to retrieve the sea state parameters from satellite data. The objective of this thesis has been to analyze, develop and implement the statistical modeling of the rough sea surface and to validate this model (called UCL-3) on real data. In this research, four parameters have been chosen as the minimum set required to provide a suitable enough description of the sea state for microwave remote sensing purposes. The small wave structure of the rough sea depends on the instantaneous local wind speed, therefore it may be described by this parameter only. On the other hand, the large sea wave structure which contains the wave history needs more degrees of freedom; therefore, we propose to describe these waves not only as a function of the wind speed but also of the wave significant slope, of the fetch and of the wavenumber at the peak of the surface displacement spectrum. With respect to previous researches made at UCL we have introduced an additional peak enhancement in the large sea wave spectrum. The quality of the resulting sea surface model has been confronted with “ground truth data” in particular those from the BEATRICE buoy (located near Ouessant Island, West of France). In a second step, the surface model, along with the electromagnetic scattering one, has then been validated on satellite data. In this thesis a particular attention has been paid to the TANDEM mission synergistically combining data from different sensors borne on two different satellites ERS1 and ERS2. The obtained geophysical retrievals have been compared with simultaneous "in situ" buoy measurements from a set of NOAA buoys located in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Alaska. This comparison allowed us to improve models previously derived at UCL and to reduce the percentage of retrieval failures i.e. the amounts of data points for which the retrieval procedure in the previous researches was failing. These sea surface results from inverted radar data agree with those derived from buoy data.

The tendency to use renewable energy resources has grown continuouslyover the past few decades, be it due to fear over warnings of globalwarming or because of the depletion and short life of fossil fuels or evenas a result of the interest which has developed among researchers doingscientific research into it. This work can be considered as joining any ofthese groups with an objective of giving electric light to the poorpopulation living in one of the poorest nations in the world.The aim of the work is to investigate supplying electric energy fromsolar-wind hybrid resources to remotely located communities detachedfrom the main grid line in Ethiopia. The communities in mind are one oftwo types; the first is the majority of the poor population residing in thecountryside; and the other is people relocated by the Government fromthe over used and dry regions to relatively productive and fertile ones inline with the long-term poverty reduction plan.The work was begun by investigating wind energy and solar energypotentials at four geographically different locations in Ethiopia bycompiling data from different sources and analyzing it using a softwaretool. The locations are Addis Ababa (09:02N, 038:42E), Mekele (13:33N,39:30E), Nazret (08:32N, 039:22E), and Debrezeit (8:44N, 39:02E).The results related to wind energy potential are given in terms of themonthly Average wind speed, the wind speed probability densityfunction (PDF), the wind speed cumulative density function (CDF), thewind speed duration curve (DC), and power density plots for all fourselected sites. According to the results obtained through the analysis, thewind energy potential, even if it is not exceptional, is irrefutably highenough to be exploited for generating electric energy.The solar energy potential, based on sunshine duration data collectedover a period of 7 - 11 years and radiation data obtained from differentsources, has been calculated using regression coefficients specific to thesites in question. Based on the sunshine duration data, the monthlyaverage daily sunshine amount for each of the places has also beencomputed and given in a form of plot. Through additional work on theresults of the calculations, the solar energy potential has been given inthe form of solar radiation plots for each of the selected sites. Asexpected, the results indicated an abundance of solar energy potential.It is based on the promising findings of these two energy resourcepotentials, wind and solar, that the feasibility study for a standalonesolar-wind hybrid energy supply system has proceeded, targeting thecommunity mentioned earlier. The hybrid system consisted of Windturbine, Photovoltaic panel, diesel generator and a bank of batteries, witha power conditioning converter included in the system.The hybrid standalone supply system is intended to provide electricity toa model community of 200 families with five to six family members ineach. The community is equipped with a primary load, a deferrable load,a community school and a health post. An electric load which includeslighting, water pumping, a radio receiver, and some clinical equipmenthas been suggested. Hybrid Optimization Model for ElectricRenewables, HOMER, software has been used for the analysis. Theaverage wind speed and average solar radiation calculated from the datafor all of the selected sites has been used to input into the software.The hybrid system design is approached in three different ways. The firstapproach is to include within the hybrid system those components whichare locally available, without giving special attention to their efficienciesand proceed with the design work. The second approach is tothoroughly search the market for the best and most efficienttechnological products and to select the best components for theanalysis. A third approach considered in an attempt of cost minimizationis to see if a self-contained type of design can be a better solution. Whatthis means is every household will have its own supply system that mayconsist of any combination of PV and wind turbine including converter,battery and charge controller.After running the simulations, lists of power supply systems have beengenerated, sorted according to their net present cost. Sensitivity variables,such as range of wind speeds, range of radiation levels and diesel pricehave been defined as inputs into the software and the optimizationprocess has been carried out repeatedly for the sensitivity variables andthe results have been refined accordingly. / QC 20100623

Ištirti mažos galios horizontaliosios ašies vėjo jėgainės energetines charakteristikas ir nustatyti efektyvumo didinimo galimybes. / Survey energy characteristics of little capacity horizontal axis wind power plant and identify efficiency increase potential.

A wind turbine needs to be controlled to ensure its safe and optimal operation, especially during high wind speeds. The most common control objectives are to limit the power and rotational speed of the wind turbine by using pitch control. Aero Energy is a company based in Potchefstroom, South Africa, that has been developing and manufacturing wind turbine blades since 2000. Their most popular product is the AE1kW blades. The blades have a tendency to over-speed in high wind speeds and the cut-in wind speed must be improved. The objective of this study was to develop an active pitch control system for wind turbines. A prototype active pitch control system had to be developed for the AE1kW blades. The objectives of the control system are to protect the wind turbine from over-speeding and to improve start-up performance. An accurate model was firstly developed to predict a wind turbine’s performance with active pitch control. The active pitch control was implemented by means of a two-stage centrifugal governor. The governor uses negative or stalling pitch control. The first linear stage uses a soft spring to provide improved start-up performance. The second non-linear stage uses a hard spring to provide over-speed protection. The governor was manufactured and then tested with the AE1kW blades. The governor achieved both the control objectives of over-speed protection and improved start-up performance. The models were validated by the results. It was established that the two-stage centrifugal governor concept can be implemented on any wind turbine, provided the blades and tower are strong enough to handle the thrust forces associated with negative pitch control. It was recommended that an active pitch control system be developed that uses positive pitching for the over-speed protection, which will eliminate the large thrust forces. Keywords: pitch control, wind turbine, centrifugal governor, over-speed protection, cut-in wind speed, blade element-momentum theory, rotor, generator, stall, feathering. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Mechanical Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

A wind turbine needs to be controlled to ensure its safe and optimal operation, especially during high wind speeds. The most common control objectives are to limit the power and rotational speed of the wind turbine by using pitch control. Aero Energy is a company based in Potchefstroom, South Africa, that has been developing and manufacturing wind turbine blades since 2000. Their most popular product is the AE1kW blades. The blades have a tendency to over-speed in high wind speeds and the cut-in wind speed must be improved. The objective of this study was to develop an active pitch control system for wind turbines. A prototype active pitch control system had to be developed for the AE1kW blades. The objectives of the control system are to protect the wind turbine from over-speeding and to improve start-up performance. An accurate model was firstly developed to predict a wind turbine’s performance with active pitch control. The active pitch control was implemented by means of a two-stage centrifugal governor. The governor uses negative or stalling pitch control. The first linear stage uses a soft spring to provide improved start-up performance. The second non-linear stage uses a hard spring to provide over-speed protection. The governor was manufactured and then tested with the AE1kW blades. The governor achieved both the control objectives of over-speed protection and improved start-up performance. The models were validated by the results. It was established that the two-stage centrifugal governor concept can be implemented on any wind turbine, provided the blades and tower are strong enough to handle the thrust forces associated with negative pitch control. It was recommended that an active pitch control system be developed that uses positive pitching for the over-speed protection, which will eliminate the large thrust forces. Keywords: pitch control, wind turbine, centrifugal governor, over-speed protection, cut-in wind speed, blade element-momentum theory, rotor, generator, stall, feathering. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Mechanical Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.