[pt] Este trabalho busca quantificar o impacto da Proposta de Emenda
Constitucional 95/2016, que limita o crescimento dos gastos federais à
inflação, no juro neutro do Brasil. Para isso, aplico duas metodologias para
análise e construção do juro neutro contrafactual: o método do Controle
Sintético, proposto por Abadie (2003), e o Artificial Counterfactual (ArCo),
de Carvalho et al. (2015). Os principais resultados sugerem que o juro
neutro do Brasil ao final de 2018 era de 3.9 por cento, em oposição aos estimados
pelo Controle Sintético e ArCo, de 10.3 por cento e 12.9 por cento, respectivamente. Estes
números apontam favoravelmente à ideia de que reformas fiscais de âmbito
estrutural possuem efeito sobre o juro neutro brasileiro. / [en] This paper seeks to quantify the impact of the Proposed Constitutional
Amendment 95/2016, which limits the growth of federal spending
to inflation in Brazil s neutral interest. For this, I apply two methodologies
for the analysis and construction of counterfactual neutral interest: the
Synthetic Control method, proposed by Abadie (2003), and the Artificial
Counterfactual (ArCo), by Carvalho et al. (2015). The main results suggest
that Brazil s neutral interest rate at the end of 2018 was 3.9 percent, as opposed
to those estimated by the Synthetic Control and ArCo, 10.3 percent and 12.9 percent,
respectively. These figures point favorably to the idea that structural fiscal
reforms have an effect on Brazilian neutral interest.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:puc-rio.br/oai:MAXWELL.puc-rio.br:50847 |
| Date | 15 December 2020 |
| Creators | ANDRE DE SOUZA RODRIGUES |
| Contributors | WALDYR DUTRA AREOSA |
| Publisher | MAXWELL |
| Source Sets | PUC Rio |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | Portuguese |
| Type | TEXTO |
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