Esta tese tem como objetivo estudar a questão do desemprego a partir de três abordagens distintas: teórica, empírica e de história das idéias. Uma tese com essas características se faz relevante justamente por apresentar diferentes abordagens científicas sobre um tema tão caro à sociedade e à ciência econômica. Na abordagem de história das idéias, concluiu-se que foram os trabalhos de Lucas (1972a, 1972b) que, de fato, estabilizaram o conceito de \"taxa natural de desemprego\" na literatura econômica do pós-guerra, através da introdução da hipótese das expectativas racionais em um arcabouço de equilíbrio geral. É mostrado, através da análise de sua correspondência, no final dos anos 1960, que sua pesquisa sobre o tema estava, na verdade, intimamente ligada à pesquisa de Phleps, ao mesmo tempo em que não tinha conexão com a pesquisa de Friedman. No capítulo teórico, foi construído um modelo teórico de crescimento com restrição externa à la Thirlwall em que a taxa e crescimento da participação da força de trabalho emerge como a variável endógena que iguala a taxa de crescimento de longo prazo da oferta à taxa de crescimento de longo prazo da demanda. No capítulo empírico, foi mostrado através da evolução da razão saldo em transações correntes/PIB que a restrição de equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos teve impacto no aumento de probabilidade do trabalhador formal transitar para o emprego informal, para o emprego por conta própria, para o desemprego e para fora da PEA, durante os anos 1980 e 1990, no Brasil. Sendo assim, esta tese espera ter cumprido seu papel de contribuir para com a literatura econômica sobre o desemprego através de análises originais em cada tipo de abordagem apresentada, sinalizando, assim, a riqueza da ciência econômica e valorizando esta tese, também, por explorar a pluralidade metodológica e a profundidade analítica. / The aim of this thesis is to study the unemployment issue from three different approaches: theoretical, empirical and history of ideas. A thesis with these features is relevant because it presents different scientific approaches to an important subject to society and to Economics. In the history of ideas\' approach, this thesis concluded that the works of Lucas (1972a, 1972b) stabilized the concept of \"natural rate of unemployment\" in the post-war economic literature through the introduction of rational expectations hypothesis into a general equilibrium framework. It is shown, through Lucas\'s correspondence in the end of the 1960\'s, that his research on the subject was, in fact, closely related to Phelps\'s research but not related to Friedman\'s research. In the theoretical approach, it was built a theoretical growth model with external constraint, à la Thirlwall, in which the rate o growth of labor force participation emerges as the endogenous variable that equalizes the long run rate of growth of supply with the long run rate of growth of demand. In the empirical approach, it was shown through the evolution of the current account/GDP ratio that balance of payments equilibrium constraint had impact in the raise of the probability of workers in formal jobs to move to informal Jobs, to self-employment jobs, to unemployment and to inactivity, during the 1980\'s and 1990\'s, in Brazil. Thus, this thesis hopes to have accomplished its role in contributing to economic literature on unemployment through original analysis in each kind of approach presented, showing the richness of Economics and, at the same time, increasing the value of this thesis for exploring the methodological plurality and the analytical deepness.

In the first essay, Persistence in Swedish Unemployment Rates, we study if there is no or weak tendency in unemployment rates to revert back to previous levels. Persistence is caused by: natural rate shocks, long unemployment cycles, and spill-over from cyclical to permanent unemployment. We find evidence of high persistence. The results suggest that the quick rise of unemployment rates during 1992-1994 was caused by large permanent and cyclical shocks in combination with spill-over effects. In the second essay, The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in a Small Open Economy, we challenge the common and simplifying assumption that the economy is closed. We set up and estimate a structural unobserved components open economy model for the unemployment rate and the real exchange rate. Our estimates indicate that the foreign sector is of substantial importance when explaining movements in the NAIRU. In the third essay, A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro, we simultaneously estimate the real exchange rates between the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro. The exchange rate movements are well explained by potential output, the output gap, terms of trade, the fraction of prime-aged people in the population, and structural government budget deficits. The models work well in an out of sample exercise. In the last essay, Wages, Employment, and Unemployment: The Effect of Benefits, Taxes and Labor Mobility, we study how wages and employment are affected by unemployment insurance and labor mobility. We show that the wage effect of higher unemployment benefits can be either positive or negative, depending on the specification of union utility function and the taxation scheme for financing the benefits. The common claim that wages are lower when a sector bears a higher fraction of unemployment costs does not hold in general. We also show that labor mobility across sectors and increased competition reduces wages and unemployment.

Darbe analizuojamas natūralus nedarbo lygis, Filipso kreivė. Darbo tikslas - įvertinti natūralų nedarbo lygį Lietuvoje. Pirmoje dalyje teoriškai nagrinėjama Filipso kreivė ir jos modifikacijos, kuri yra natūralaus nedarbo lygio teorinis pamatas, bei natūralų nedarbo lygį veikiantys faktoriai, analizuojamos vertinimo metodikos. Antroje dalyje analizuojami Filipso kreivę veikiančių faktorių dinamika Lietuvoje: valstybės išlaidos, komercinių bankų suteiktos paskolos, importo infliacija, naftos, dujų, elektros ir maisto žaliavų kainos. Analizuojami galimi Filipso kreivės struktūriniai lūžiai. Analizuojami natūralų nedarbo lygį veikinatys faktoriai: jaunimo nedarbo lygis ir santykinis dydis darbo jėgoje, emigracija, socialinės apsaugos lygis bei darbo produktyvumas, pateikiama natūralaus nedarbo lygio vertinimo metodologija. Trečioje dalyje vertinamos įvairių Filipso kreivių modifikacijų galiojimo Lietuvoje hipotezės bei vertinamas natūralus nedarbo lygis, apžvelgiami rezultatai ir jų patikimumas. Tyrime statistiškai patikimas Filipso kreivės modelis nebuvo rastas. Apskaičiuotas 12,04% Lietuvos natūralus nedarbo lygio įvertinimas yra tik iš dalies patikimas. Visi regresiniai modeliai parodė statistiškai reikšmingą neigiamą nedarbo lygio ir infliacijos priklausomybę. / Thesis is focused on natural rate of unemployment and variations of Phillips curve. Estimation of natural rate of unemployment in Lithuania is the main objective. In the first part Phillips curve and its variations, which is foundation for natural rate of unemployment as well as other infuencing factors are analysed on theoretical basis. Various estimation techniques are compared. In the second part various factors are analysed in the context of Phillips curve in Lithuania together with possible structural breaks in Phillips curve relationship. Conclusions are drawn from analysis of factors influencing natural rate of unemployment, particularly emigration and social security. Estimation methodology is specified in the second part. In the last part hipothesis of Phillips curve and natural rate of unemployment are tested. In conclusion, no statistically reliable model of Phillips curve based on empirical data is found, though all models proved negative inflation and unemployment relationship in Lithuania. Results show natural rate of unemployment to be 12,04%, though it is important to note, that results are drawn from statistically unreliable model.

Esta tese tem como objetivo estudar a questão do desemprego a partir de três abordagens distintas: teórica, empírica e de história das idéias. Uma tese com essas características se faz relevante justamente por apresentar diferentes abordagens científicas sobre um tema tão caro à sociedade e à ciência econômica. Na abordagem de história das idéias, concluiu-se que foram os trabalhos de Lucas (1972a, 1972b) que, de fato, estabilizaram o conceito de \"taxa natural de desemprego\" na literatura econômica do pós-guerra, através da introdução da hipótese das expectativas racionais em um arcabouço de equilíbrio geral. É mostrado, através da análise de sua correspondência, no final dos anos 1960, que sua pesquisa sobre o tema estava, na verdade, intimamente ligada à pesquisa de Phleps, ao mesmo tempo em que não tinha conexão com a pesquisa de Friedman. No capítulo teórico, foi construído um modelo teórico de crescimento com restrição externa à la Thirlwall em que a taxa e crescimento da participação da força de trabalho emerge como a variável endógena que iguala a taxa de crescimento de longo prazo da oferta à taxa de crescimento de longo prazo da demanda. No capítulo empírico, foi mostrado através da evolução da razão saldo em transações correntes/PIB que a restrição de equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos teve impacto no aumento de probabilidade do trabalhador formal transitar para o emprego informal, para o emprego por conta própria, para o desemprego e para fora da PEA, durante os anos 1980 e 1990, no Brasil. Sendo assim, esta tese espera ter cumprido seu papel de contribuir para com a literatura econômica sobre o desemprego através de análises originais em cada tipo de abordagem apresentada, sinalizando, assim, a riqueza da ciência econômica e valorizando esta tese, também, por explorar a pluralidade metodológica e a profundidade analítica. / The aim of this thesis is to study the unemployment issue from three different approaches: theoretical, empirical and history of ideas. A thesis with these features is relevant because it presents different scientific approaches to an important subject to society and to Economics. In the history of ideas\' approach, this thesis concluded that the works of Lucas (1972a, 1972b) stabilized the concept of \"natural rate of unemployment\" in the post-war economic literature through the introduction of rational expectations hypothesis into a general equilibrium framework. It is shown, through Lucas\'s correspondence in the end of the 1960\'s, that his research on the subject was, in fact, closely related to Phelps\'s research but not related to Friedman\'s research. In the theoretical approach, it was built a theoretical growth model with external constraint, à la Thirlwall, in which the rate o growth of labor force participation emerges as the endogenous variable that equalizes the long run rate of growth of supply with the long run rate of growth of demand. In the empirical approach, it was shown through the evolution of the current account/GDP ratio that balance of payments equilibrium constraint had impact in the raise of the probability of workers in formal jobs to move to informal Jobs, to self-employment jobs, to unemployment and to inactivity, during the 1980\'s and 1990\'s, in Brazil. Thus, this thesis hopes to have accomplished its role in contributing to economic literature on unemployment through original analysis in each kind of approach presented, showing the richness of Economics and, at the same time, increasing the value of this thesis for exploring the methodological plurality and the analytical deepness.

The current study examined the effect of different rate change approaches on speech movement patterns, including increasing and decreasing speaking rate volitionally, as well as with delayed auditory feedback (DAF). There were 10 participants, five male and five female, with a mean age of 25 years. All were typical speakers. Participants spoke the sentence “Don’t fight or pout over a toy car” under slow, fast and DAF speaking conditions. A total of 5 sensors were glued to each participant’s tongue, teeth, and lips. NDI Wave electromagnetic articulography recorded the articulatory movements from these sensors as the participants spoke. Metrics for the individual movement strokes, or articulatory gestures, were calculated based on the movement speed of the articulators during the target utterance. Ten tokens of the target utterance were analyzed for stroke count, stroke speed, duration, and hull area. Vertical movements of the tongue, jaw, lips, and lip aperture were used to calculate the spatiotemporal index to assess variability in speech movements across 10 sentence repetitions. Statistical analysis revealed that articulatory patterns changed significantly in slower speech. A speaker’s efforts to naturally decrease speech rate affected articulation patterns more than did the fast and DAF conditions. Findings from this study can be used as a foundation for future studies with dysarthric individuals, which may increase our understanding of mechanisms of change in the remediation of disordered speech.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how a current-looking Taylor rule explains the setting of the repo rate by the Riksbank between 1995-2018 vis-à-vis a forward-looking Taylor rule. Furthermore, we investigate whether the explanatory power of these rules change after the financial crisis. The implied Taylor rates are calculated using our own estimates of the natural rate of interest. These rates are then plotted on a graph creating a span of uncertainty in which the repo rate can be set between. Finally, we regress the repo rate on the Taylor rates. In this way, we examine which rule is more in line with the repo rate. The results showed that a forward-looking Taylor rule based on a varying real interest rate is more in line with the repo rate than the current-looking rule, both for the period as a whole and after 2008. The explanatory power of both rules decreases in the period following 2008.

[pt] Este trabalho busca quantificar o impacto da Proposta de Emenda Constitucional 95/2016, que limita o crescimento dos gastos federais à inflação, no juro neutro do Brasil. Para isso, aplico duas metodologias para análise e construção do juro neutro contrafactual: o método do Controle Sintético, proposto por Abadie (2003), e o Artificial Counterfactual (ArCo), de Carvalho et al. (2015). Os principais resultados sugerem que o juro neutro do Brasil ao final de 2018 era de 3.9 por cento, em oposição aos estimados pelo Controle Sintético e ArCo, de 10.3 por cento e 12.9 por cento, respectivamente. Estes números apontam favoravelmente à ideia de que reformas fiscais de âmbito estrutural possuem efeito sobre o juro neutro brasileiro. / [en] This paper seeks to quantify the impact of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment 95/2016, which limits the growth of federal spending to inflation in Brazil s neutral interest. For this, I apply two methodologies for the analysis and construction of counterfactual neutral interest: the Synthetic Control method, proposed by Abadie (2003), and the Artificial Counterfactual (ArCo), by Carvalho et al. (2015). The main results suggest that Brazil s neutral interest rate at the end of 2018 was 3.9 percent, as opposed to those estimated by the Synthetic Control and ArCo, 10.3 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively. These figures point favorably to the idea that structural fiscal reforms have an effect on Brazilian neutral interest.

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This dissertation presents the results of research focused on the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). The main part of the thesis is an econometrical test of five predictions based on ABCT. I used data on the US economy for period 1967 - 2016, which is the longest time period covered in the Austrian empirical literature so far. Since one of the most important variables for ABCT is so called interest rate gap (the difference between market interest rate and natural interest rate), I use three alternative models of this variable. The results of my empirical tests predominantly confirm theoretical predictions of ABCT. It can be shown that the interest rate gap influenced the relative structure of economic activity and resource allocation in a way predicted by ABCT. I also investigate whether the interest rate gap does have a significant impact on stock market valuations (in terms of aggregate level or relative structure), although the results are mostly statistically insignificant. In addition I also described several possible new distortions which may emerge due to unconventional monetary policy. I argue that these distortions should be of primary interest for researchers engaged in the Austrian research program. I devoted special attention to the specifics of monetary policy regime in Japan, where the Bank of Japan regularly intervenes on the stock market. Another theoretical contribution can be found in the second chapter where I respond to the White's (1999) claim that Hayek implicitly repudiated his own version of ABCT in later part of his career, when proposing free competition in money production. I attempt to show that White's conclusion stems from an inadequate interpretation of Hayek's writings. Finally I provide an alternative interpretation of Hayek's work that reveals the compatibility of his early and late theoretical contributions.

Text in Afrikaans / Suid-Afrika ondervind reeds geruime tyd hoe en stygende vlakke van werkloosheid. Gedurende die tagtigerjare bet die opkoms van vakbonde 'n fundamentele herstrukturering van die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark veroorsaak en die styging in werkloosheid gedurende die tydperk word dikwels aan vakbondoptrede toegeskryf. In die studie word verskillende oorsake van werkloosheid aan die hand van die klassieke, Keynesiaanse, natuurlike werkloosheidskoers- en nie-versnellende-inflasiewerkloosheidskoersbenaderings ondersoek ten einde die invloed van vakbonde en loononaanpasbaarheid op werkloosheid te probeer bepaal. Ooreenkomste sowel as verskille tussen die teoriee word geidentifiseer. Dit wil voorkom asof vakbonde gedurende die tagtigerjare in Suid-Afrika deur middel van bulle invloed op . loonverhogings 'n betreklik geringe invloed op werkloosheid gehad bet en dat loononaanpasbaarheid geensins 'n beduidende faktor was nie. Dit blyk ook dat die Keynesiaanse benadering die toepaslikste raamwerk hied vir die ontleding van hoe vlakke van werkloosheid en die invloed van vakbonde daarop. · / High and rising levels of unemployment have been experienced in South Africa for quite some time. The rise in trade union activity during the eighties caused a fundamental restructuring of the South African labour market and the increase in unemployment during this period is often blamed on trade union activity. In this study the classical approach, the Keynesian approach, the natural rate of unemployment and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment are used to examine the different causes of unemployment with the purpose of assessing the influence of trade unions and wage rigidity on the level of unemployment. Similarities as well as differences between the theories are identified. It appears that trade unions had a marginal effect on unemployment in South Africa during the eighties through their influence on wage increases and that wage rigidity was not a significant cause of unemployment during this period. The Keynesian approach seems to be the most appropriate framework to analyse the causes of high levels of unemployment as well as the influence of trade unions on unemployment. / Department of Economics / M. Comm (Economics)