由於中國經濟快速的成長，綜合國力逐漸提升，更因成長趨勢顯著，不但引起世界各國的注意，並讓周邊國家及國際強權產生壓迫感，遂有「中國威脅論」的出現。自2003年下半年起，中國領導階層與主要分析家即開始提倡「和平崛起」概念為其未來數十年的戰略路線；因為中國領導人瞭解其快速提昇的全球經濟與安全事務影響力，已造成主要強權和亞洲各國的普遍憂慮後，正試圖以此概念向世界消毒。而「和平崛起」係中國研究歷史後，瞭解新力量崛起時可能產生的問題後所採行的國家戰略路線，希藉此向世界宣示其力求避免衝突的決心，本概念即係中國對「中國威脅論」的回應。
現代國家的國防安全已不是單純軍事範疇的問題，而是政府針對國家安全情勢需要，對政治、經濟、心理、軍事整體國力的統合運策施為，以確保國家安全的全面國務大政。承平時的「嚇阻」及戰爭時的「防衛」為推動國防政策的必要觀念；因此，外部的軍事威脅仍是影響各國國家安全的最主要因素。
中國積極推動軍事現代化的短期目標雖然還是在於以武力脅迫台灣，並準備可能的台海衝突，但長期而言，中國不僅有能力而且有野心去挑戰美國在亞洲區域內的霸權地位。比起美國近年超過3000億美元的軍事預算和先進的武器裝備，中國的軍力雖略顯渺小，但其增長的速度卻十分快速。自1990年代以來，中國官方的國防支出即以每年兩位數的成長率增加，中國的崛起以及伴隨而來的快速軍力擴張，已經成為影響海峽兩岸穩定與安全的最大變數。
國防建軍的理念，不在與敵人作量的競賽，而是建立一支高素質、高科技的精銳武力，以確實嚇阻敵人；因此，就現況而言，維持兩岸現況以及足夠的嚇阻力量，乃是降低兩岸動武機率的兩大要素。 / The rapid growth of China’s economy and advancement in national comprehensive power have drawn attention to the world. China’s neighboring countries and great powers are sensing the escalating pressures of “China Threat”. Since the second half of 2003, China’s leadership and analysts have initiated the concept of “Peaceful Rise” as China’s future strategy in the next few decades. China is now attempting to change the international community’s misconception toward China.
The national defense is aimed to the need for the overall national security. National defense encompasses political, economical, psychological and military aspects rather than just for the military motive. To “deter” in the peace time and to “defense” in the war time are mayor concerns of national defense policy. Consequently, exterior military threat remains the top issue in each country’s national security.
China’s military modernization for the short-term goal is to coerce Taiwan and prepare for any possible cross-straits confrontation. China not only has the ability but also the ambition to challenge the U.S. hegemony role in the Asia. China’s military budget is relatively small compared to the U.S. military expenses in the last few years. However, China’s military modernization is very phenomenal in the past few years. Since the 1990s, China’s official documents reveal that its military expense grows in the rate of more than 10 percent. The rising China and its rapid military expansion become the most unpredictable variables for the stability and security in the Cross-Straits region.
The ideal type of building military forces is to build a high-quality and high-tech forces rather than to compete with the enemy in terms of figures. Inferring Maintaining status quo and have the forces to deter China’s military intention are two important factors to reduce the military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0929210251 |
| Creators | 孫國華 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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