新興市場的崛起，是二十一世紀經濟發展的重要趨勢。在這一波新興國家熱潮中，越南總是不斷地成為大家的焦點。本文分析整理越南近二十年經濟發展歷程，發現其在經濟快速成長下獲致不凡的成就，但却隱含著：（一）基礎建設落後，（二）出口雖持續成長但貿易赤字卻擴大，（三）外匯存底不足且熱錢充斥，（四）通貨膨脹嚴重等四大難題。
越南在證券市場方面成長快速，證券市場規模佔GDP比重由2000年的不到1％，成長至2007年的40％，然因市場規模小，容易產生流動性風險 ，股價易暴漲暴跌，2006年股價漲幅世界第一，2008年至今股價跌幅也是世界第一。越南對外資採相當開放的態度，積極鼓勵外資直接投資或間接投資越南。在證券市場方面，其對外國投資人之開放程度亦較一般新興國家高，允許外資法人及自然人直接參與股市投資。外資一般認為越南為一低度開發的處女地，擁有豐富的天然資源，以及年輕的勞動人口，政治情勢安定，加上中產階級勢力的抬頭，對其長期經濟展望看法樂觀，但近期對越南居高不下的通貨膨脹率深感憂慮。
本研究並比較分析中國經濟改革及證券發展歷程，發現越南目前遭遇的困境，與1993年前後中國證券市場之經濟泡沫如出一轍，以中國之經驗來看，若越南能持續於金融、匯率及國企之改革，相信必能擺脫此一窘境，重回穩定成長的康莊大道。
關鍵字:越南、外資、貿易逆差、通貨膨脹、證券市場 / The rising up of the emerging markets is an important trend in the developing of economy during this century. In the up surging wave of the emerging markets, Vietnam unceasingly be the cynosure of all eyes . This article organized and analyzed the track of the economic development in Vietnam. Discovered that although it obtained an uncommon achievement under the economical fast growth, Vietnam still encounters four tough issues. (1)infrastructure backwardness, (2)although exportation continues to grow but the trade deficit actually to expand, (3)insufficiency of the foreign reserve and the hot money floods, (4)serious inflation.
The stock market in Vietnam grows very fast, the stock market value accounts for the GDP proportion from under 1% in 2000, grows to over 40% at the end of 2007. However since the market scale is so small, it is easy to have the liquidity problem. The stock price is apt to rise and fall suddenly. It ranked world first in the buoyancy of 2006, It also ranked world No 1 in the downturn of 2008. Vietnam takes an open manner to the foreign capital, it positively encourages the foreign capital to invest in Vietnam. It is also more open up in the stock market comparatively to the other emerging countries, it permits foreign investors to participate directly in the stock market. From the foreign investor's point of view, Vietnam is reputed to be a lowly developed country, be abundant in natural resources as well as young working population, with relatively stable political circumstance in addition to the gaining ground middle class. So it is optimistic to its long-term perspective. But there is deeply anxious about the inflation rate in Vietnam which still stays at a high level recently.
This article also compare and analyze the economy reform and the securities development course of China. It is found that the morass which Vietnam is swamped is very similar to the economic froth occurred in China during 1993. According to the experience in China, it will be able to get rid of this predicament and return to the wide free road of growth if Vietnam can continue to the finance, the exchange rate and the state-owned enterprise reform.
Keywords: Vietnam, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment, Trade deficit , Inflation, Securities
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0094932247 |
| Creators | 韓秀珍, Han, Hsiu Chen |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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