台灣壽險業近年來面對利差損、國內低利環境，與國內長天期投資工具不足的窘境，因而保險法第146-4條修正後，壽險業者擴大持有國外投資部位。本研究以海外債券投資作為國外投資代理變數，探討海外債券投資與壽險公司之營運風險、經營績效的關係。採用2008年至2016年，共25家壽險公司不平衡追蹤資料，以OLS、Panel Data兩種統計方法作實證分析，再以金融海嘯到歐債危機的時間點，劃分成前期(2008年-2011年)、後期(2012年-2016年)作比較分析。
根據全期資料之分析：以線性模型來看，海外債券投資與營運風險為顯著負相關；和經營績效則是顯著正相關。若是非線性模型，海外債券投資與營運風險為U型相關，臨界點在18.83%。分期資料之分析則顯示：前期資料結果與全期資料一致。但後期資料的研究結果出現反轉，在線性模型下，海外債券投資與營運風險呈現顯著正相關，和經營績效則呈現顯著負相關；而非線性模型下，海外債券和營運風險的U型相關，臨界點下降至13.56%。 / In recent years, life insurers in Taiwan face the spread loss of interest rate, low interest rate environment and shortage of long-term instruments. Life insurers started to expand their foreign investments after the amendment of Article 146-4 of Insurance Act in 1992. This study aims to investigate the relations among overseas bonds investment, operational risk and business performance of life insurers. Data is composed of 25 life insurers from 2008 to 2016. With consideration of the global financial crisis and European debt crisis, this study then divides the data into two subsets (before and after the crises).
The results shows that under the linear model there is a significant negative relation between overseas bonds and operational risk, but a significant positive relation between overseas bonds and business performance. Under non-linear model there is a significant U-shaped relationship between overseas bonds and operational risk, with the critical point at 18.83%.
The results for the subset data before the crises (2008-2011) is consistent with the based on the whole data (2008-2016). However, the analysis for the subset data after the crises (2012-2016) display different result. Under the linear model, the relation between overseas bonds and operational risk is positive, but it is negative between overseas bonds and business performance. Additionally, the critical point of that U-shaped relationship between overseas bonds and operational risk under the non-linear model drops to 13.56%.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0104358008 |
| Creators | 許淵宏, Hsu, Yuan Hong |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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