由於近年來全球經濟金融情勢發生急遽變遷，金融市場結構和運行機制產生重大結構性的改變，市場整體環境亦較以往更趨複雜且富挑戰性，國內現行的金融環境中符合保險業特性之金融工具不足，政府對於國內經濟體制改善的整體策略發展亦無較為實質之行動，開放保險業國外投資限制儼然成為燃眉之急，參考當前國際間對於金融市場監理主流可知，除了持續推動業務自由化與自律化外，同時亦必須加強金融資本適足之規範強化資本結構，然而，主管機關對於投資限制的介入太深，同時針對限額與標的做雙面監管，使保險業於投資配置上無法達到最佳決策，加強資本適足並強化資本結構的美意，反而使保險公司為求符合主管機關之監理標準而放棄對於公司經營的最佳決策。 / 現行法雖基於對保單持有人的保護與社會經濟的穩定發展而對於保險業資金運用存在多重限制，然而連年的營運壓力，亦使主管機關必須重視投資限制對於保險公司收益上的重要影響，因此今(2007)年立法院三讀通過將保險業國外投資上限提高為百分之四十五，此舉將為保險業帶來極大利多，因此本文研究我國保險法歷年來對於保險業資金運用的限制沿革，進一步分析保險業辦理國外投資時所遭受的規範與限制，並探討當保險業辦理國外投資上限向上開放時，保險公司該如何控管其風險，主管機關又該如何從旁監督協助並提出建議，以期能作為我國保險業辦理國外投資時之參考。

由於市場利率持續低迷，壽險業利差損問題成為關切焦點，而國內金融市場投資工具仍然有限，壽險業2004年底5兆1,126億元的可運用資金總額中，有6,115億元（占可運用資金12.3%）投資於銀行存款及商業本票等短期投資部位。無論監理機關或壽險業均將解決之道，寄望於提高國外投資上限。本次保險法修正草案中，亦建議提高國外投資上限至資金之50%。 本研究嘗試透過計算壽險業有效契約平均預定利率、分析台灣現行金融環境下壽險業資產配置之困境，據以探討提高國外投資上限至50%，能否解決壽險業所面臨之經營困境，並提出建議做法，期能有助提供相關單位之參考。 本研究發現，壽險業有效契約平均預定利率，雖然隨著新契約預定利率逐漸調降而降低，但各項法定資金運用管道，在現行台灣整體金融環境下，很難達到損益兩平。 由風險性資產效率前緣分析也發現，國外投資上限之提高在避險成本較低時，不失為在台灣金融工具之質與量無法短期提升下，業者可以提高資金運用收益之解決方案。但如果避險成本增加，隨著國外投資上限提高而將資金移往國外，投資效率並不見得會提升，但卻也不會比提高前來得差，此時投資效率，將端視個別公司風險控管及國外金融工具選擇能力而定。 所以提高國外投資上限，僅能視個別公司逐案嚴加審核，甚至超出現行35%上限部分，應比現行審核標準更嚴格，無法通案為之。重要的是，政府要提出改善金融環境及健全保險業發展之整體策略，而不是僅僅著眼於提高國外投資上限。 關鍵字：國外投資、有效契約平均預定利率、效率前緣 / Because the environment of low interest rate, Life Insurance company’s loss expanded and raised the concerns of investors. More badly, the domestic high-yield-rate investment tools are less. For example, the total disposable capitals reached NT$ 5,112 billions in the end of 2004. There are 12.3% of these huge bucks, i.e. NT$ 611 billions that put in short term investment including commercial papers and cash. Now, not only the authorities also the life insurers are expecting the augment of foreign investment percentage. Recent amendments on the Law of Insurance suggest raise the ceiling of foreign investment from 35% to 50%. In order to propose total solutions for life insurers and MOF, this paper goes through broad discussions on 「Could the augment of investment ceiling solve the issues of interest loss?」 Hopefully, the life insurers would benefit from them. And these topics are 「the calculation of assumed interest rate of in-force life insurance policies」、「the analysis of Taiwan life insurers’ dilemma for assets management in current financial environment」. This paper advises that break-even normally is very difficult in Taiwan financial environment currently. Although the industrial average assumed interest rate of in-force policies is decreasing due to the lower assumed interest rate of new contracts. The legal investment tools are still far too less. Low yield rate and duration mismatch are the aches deep in the heart of life insurers. Due to the shortage of investment tools, the efficiency frontier analysis suggests that life insurers shall enhance oversea investment as a total solution. And it will create expected returns under the low cost of hedge. Nevertheless, if the hedging cost is uprising, the results of expanding oversea investment won’t create values any more. By the way, it won’t perform worse either if life insurers uphold original investment decision. Actually, the results of investment depend on risk management and the ability to choose better oversea investment tools. To conclude that the augment of oversea investment ceiling could be approved case-by-case not to enact the law. Especially the part exceeding 35% should be audited more toughly. The augment of oversea investment ceiling is not the key issue. More important is that the government shall propose national strategy to improve financial environment and build up sound development settings for insurance industry. Key Words：Oversea Investment、Assumed Interest Rate of In-force Policies、Efficiency Frontier

立法院於1992年2月26日修定保險法第146條，將國外投資正式列入保險業資金運用之項目，引導保險業參與國外金融市場。保險業因國內利率環境與資本市場欠缺長天期金融工具下，衍生顯著利差損問題，而國外金融商品的多樣性、高創新能力與高收益率似乎提供保險業資金投資選擇。 本研究嘗試透過不同構面的探討，將國外投資所面臨的風險與金融主管機關的監理措施加以說明，並詳細分析資產負債管理策略－資產負債區隔，建議保險業者應從資產負債管理出發，考量不同性質負債，尋找適合金融資產做為支撐之標的，如此才能透過搭配性質相近且年期適合的國外金融工具進行負債面的管理，使得國外投資能充份地發揮其多樣性與享有較高之投資收益。 亦應利用支撐負債面之金融資產組合所計算出來市場利率做為負債面評價基礎，做到資產與負債皆採用市價評估，更能反應保險公司真實的價值，並可做為主管機關監理參考。保險業者除透過資產負債區隔了解本身國外資產配置的適當性外，應輔以嚴謹的風險管理機制與自律機制，如此才能保有永續經營的能力。 / The article 146 of Insurance Law had been amended by Legistrative Yuan on 26 February 1992. It allows insurance company invests funds into foreign financial assets and across boundary to attend foreign markets. Taiwan insurance industry face significant losses from the actual credit interest lower than the credit interest rate due to economic environments and lack of long-term investment vehicles. The foreign financial market with multiplicity, innovation and higher yield seems to provide Taiwanese insurance companys a channel to resolve its interest rate gap problem. This research employs boarder discussions on the foreign investment risk of the life insurance industry from various angles. This paper also analyzes the control issues from regulator’s rerspective and outlines the asset-liability management tool “segmentation”. We also provide suggestions to Taieanese life insurance industry to adopt the asset and liability segmentation as their major tool in performing oversea investment. In the same time, the realistic surplus of the insurance company can be monitored by measuring the difference between mark to market assets and contingency liability that is calculated by market yield from replicated portfolio. In recent years, the foreign investment play a major role in Taiwanese Life insurance company’s asset portfolio, hence they are required to carefully monitor appropriate financial assets to support their liabilities. It also includes enhancing the risk management framework and self-control mechanism in order to maintain their business ability.

一、研究動機： 隨著政府各種外匯管制的放寬，國際證券投資已成為可能，對投資者而言選擇的範圍 擴大是一件好事。但是對外投資與國內投資最大不同在於前者涉及及匯率的風險，貿 然的投入國外投資，並不一定有利。本研究的目的即在探討開放國外投資後，對本國 投資者是否有利? 也就是比較開放前與開放後資產組合之報酬率及風險是否有所不同 。 二、研究方法： 分析投資組合最常用的方法為MARKOWITZ 的平均數一變異數投資組合模型，其主旨為 投資者進行投資時，目的在於使平均報酬極大化•或者是使報酬的風險 (以變異數衡 量) 極小化，也就是當變異數相同時，求平均報酬極大，而而當平均報酬相同時，則 求變異數極小。但此分析方法為單期的分析法，只能分析一期的投資而不能分析多期 的投資行為。本研究擬依JAN MOSSIN的多期投資模型進行分析，以探討長期下國際投 資是否有利。如果投資者的決策行為遵循 complete myopica或partial myopica，則 指數及對數型式的效用函數可滿足此行為模式，在研究中將假設效用函數為指數型式 ，對投資報酬率的機率分析則假定為齊一分配，以進行實證分析，並探討國外投資的 開放對本國投資者而言是否有利。 同時為了解當投資者具有不同的風險偏好時 (在此風險偏好程度是依Pratt-Arrow 之 方式來衡量) ，分析結果是否會因而不同，在此擬同時探討四種具不同風險偏好的投 資者行為作為比較。 三、資料來源： 為研究國際證券投資之報酬，本文在國內方面收集了股價指數、債券成交價格、債券 利率、債券期限等以計算報酬率，並以三商銀三個月期存款利率作為無風險資產的報 酬率；國外方面則收集了美、日兩國的股價指數的債券報酬率的季資料。 資料期間因限於早期國內股票、債券等資料不完全，因此起始年限為民國60年第一季 至民國78年第三季，共75筆資料，資料來源方面，國內股價、債券資料取自證交資料 ，三商銀存款利率則取自金融統計月報，美日二國的債券及股票資料則取自國際貨幣 基金所出版之國際金融統計月報。 四、預期結果： 本文實證的結果，預期在加入國外資產後，報酬率比只投資國內證券為高。這結果隱 含著在長期下國際證券投資對本國投資者而言是有利可圖。

本研究探討面臨顯著背景風險（諸如核保等風險）金融機構之投資策略，考量加入國外投資風險下，該金融機構如何決定最適動態資產配置策略，為充分反映市場風險、匯率風險及核保風險，本研究以隨機方程式描述資產價值及核保經驗之變動，並以假想之人壽保險公司作為討論對象，預估未來現金流量並建構公司財務資訊相關之隨機模型，給定最低資本限制下，於指定投資期限內達到全期淨值(盈餘)最佳效用值為目標。本文依照給定之背景風險建構隨機控制模型，利用動態規劃法求出最適資產配置。結果顯示最適投資組合將由三項要素組成：1.極小化盈餘變化之變異數之部位；2.類似於短期投資組合策略之避險部位；以及3.用以規避背景風險之避險部位。因為模型複雜性之限制，以逼近馬可夫理論之數值方法計算最適投資策略。 / This paper analyzes the optimal asset allocation for insurers and investors who are required to cope with significant background risks due to underwriting uncertainties and interest rate risks among a set of stochastic investment opportunities. In order to hedge properly the country risks due to local volatile financial market, the foreign investment opportunities are included in the optimal portfolio decision. In this study, detailed formulation using the projected cash flows of a hypothetical life insurance company and its related stochastic phenomena are constructed. The insurers are assumed to maximize the expected discounted utility of their surplus over the investment horizon under the minimal capital requirement. Our problem is formulated as a stochastic control framework. According to the optimal solution, the optimal portfolio can be characterized by three components: a hedging component minimizing the variance of the change in surplus, a hedging component familiar to myopic portfolio rule, and a risk hedging component against the background risks. Since the explicit solutions cannot be achieved due to model complexity, the Markov chain approximation methods are employed to obtain the optimal control solutions in our numerical illustration.

自2003年起隨著台灣壽險業國外投資比率不斷提高，至2010年底國外投資比率已達34.47%，因此為了探討壽險業國外投資與績效並了解相關因素之影響，本研究檢視壽險公司之市占率和各險種保費收入比率與國外投資比率之間的關係，同時亦檢視美國政府十年期公債殖利率與投資報酬率之間是否具有正向關係。另一方面，探討已公開發行公司是否因需揭露財務報表而與未公開發行公司之間在國外投資比率和投資績效上有所差異。 本文以2004年至2008年台灣25家壽險公司的長期資料（longitudinal data），分析總合（pooled）、固定效果(fixed effects)和隨機效果（random effects）迴歸模型，並檢視模型之適合性檢定。另因反應變數之密度估計具長尾之特性，所以亦使用Koenker（2004）和Geraci and Bottai（2007）提出的長期資料分量迴歸（quantile regression for longitudinal data）分析作為探討。實證結果顯示，若壽險公司的市占率愈高，則其資產配置於國外的比重亦相對地提高，且壽險和年金險比率與國外投資比率之間呈現顯著地正相關；此外，公開發行公司的國外投資比率顯著高於未公開發行公司。在投資績效方面，美國政府十年期公債殖利率與投資報酬率之間為顯著的正相關。 長期資料分量迴歸分析實證結果顯示，當使用Koenker（2004）提出之方法時，則一般（ordinary）分量迴歸在50%、75%和90%條件分量下，隨著樣本期間年度的增加，壽險業的國外投資報酬率相對地上升；在10% 和25% 條件分量下，壽險公司市占率與國外投資報酬率之間是顯著的正相關。而使用Geraci and Bottai（2007）提出之隨機效果分量迴歸方法時，在50%條件分量下，國外投資比率與國外投資報酬率之間為顯著地正相關，再者匯率風險將降低台灣壽險業國外投資的意願，然而實行避險策略是有益於投資績效的提升。 / The foreign investment ratio for the life insurance industry in Taiwan has risen constantly since 2003 and reached 34.47% in 2010. In order to explore foreign investment and performance, and understand the impact of relevant factors in the life insurance industry, this study examines the relationship between the market shares of life insurance companies, types of premium income ratio and the foreign investment ratio. Simultaneously, this study also examines the relationship between the 10-year US Treasury Bond Yield Currency and investment return.On the other hand, we explore whether the difference between the publicly traded companies and non-publicly traded companies on the foreign investment ratio and the investment performance. In this dissertation, we analyze 25 Taiwanese life insurance companies between 2004 and 2008 using the pooled, fixed effects and random effects regression model. Due to the distribution of the response variable is characterized by the long tail, we explore the use of the quantile regression for longitudinal data by Koenker(2004)and Geraci and Bottai(2007). The empirical results show that the more market share of life insurance companies, the higher foreign investment ratio and there is significantly positive correlation between the life insurance, annuity ratio and the foreign investment ratio. In addition, the publicly traded company's foreign investment ratio is significantly higher than non-publicly traded company. In terms of investment performance, it’s significantly positive correlation between the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond Yield Currency and return on investment. The empirical results about quantile regression for longitudinal data show that the return on foreign investment relatively enhance for the life insurance industry with the increase of the year during the sample period under the 50%,75% and 90% conditional qauntile when using the ordinary quantile regression proposed by Koenker(2004). There is significantly positive correlation between the market share and the return on foreign investment under the 10% and 25% conditional qauntile. When using the method proposed by Geraci and Bottai(2007), there is significantly positive correlation between the foreign investment ratio and the return on foreign investment under the 50% conditional qauntile. Furthermore, exchange rate risk will reduce the foreign investment willingness of the life insurance industry in Taiwan. However, the implementation of the hedging strategy is beneficial to enhance investment performance for the life insurance industry.

台灣壽險業近年來面對利差損、國內低利環境，與國內長天期投資工具不足的窘境，因而保險法第146-4條修正後，壽險業者擴大持有國外投資部位。本研究以海外債券投資作為國外投資代理變數，探討海外債券投資與壽險公司之營運風險、經營績效的關係。採用2008年至2016年，共25家壽險公司不平衡追蹤資料，以OLS、Panel Data兩種統計方法作實證分析，再以金融海嘯到歐債危機的時間點，劃分成前期(2008年-2011年)、後期(2012年-2016年)作比較分析。 根據全期資料之分析：以線性模型來看，海外債券投資與營運風險為顯著負相關；和經營績效則是顯著正相關。若是非線性模型，海外債券投資與營運風險為U型相關，臨界點在18.83%。分期資料之分析則顯示：前期資料結果與全期資料一致。但後期資料的研究結果出現反轉，在線性模型下，海外債券投資與營運風險呈現顯著正相關，和經營績效則呈現顯著負相關；而非線性模型下，海外債券和營運風險的U型相關，臨界點下降至13.56%。 / In recent years, life insurers in Taiwan face the spread loss of interest rate, low interest rate environment and shortage of long-term instruments. Life insurers started to expand their foreign investments after the amendment of Article 146-4 of Insurance Act in 1992. This study aims to investigate the relations among overseas bonds investment, operational risk and business performance of life insurers. Data is composed of 25 life insurers from 2008 to 2016. With consideration of the global financial crisis and European debt crisis, this study then divides the data into two subsets (before and after the crises). The results shows that under the linear model there is a significant negative relation between overseas bonds and operational risk, but a significant positive relation between overseas bonds and business performance. Under non-linear model there is a significant U-shaped relationship between overseas bonds and operational risk, with the critical point at 18.83%. The results for the subset data before the crises (2008-2011) is consistent with the based on the whole data (2008-2016). However, the analysis for the subset data after the crises (2012-2016) display different result. Under the linear model, the relation between overseas bonds and operational risk is positive, but it is negative between overseas bonds and business performance. Additionally, the critical point of that U-shaped relationship between overseas bonds and operational risk under the non-linear model drops to 13.56%.