本篇論文主要貢獻在於推導出考慮違約風險、基差風險以及道德風險下之巨災債券價格封閉解，透過敏感度分析來了解各個參數之變化對於巨災債券價格之影響，並依據市場上實際發行之Muteki地震債券的價格資訊以及實際損失資料來進行參數估計，以了解債券投資人對於災害發生的頻率以及損失的預期。本研究從敏感度分析的結果，驗證了在考慮違約風險、基差風險以及道德風險之下，巨災債券價格會隨著這些風險的提高而降低。另外也發現，在巨災發生到達率、巨災發生所造成的損失幅度、資產利率彈性等，會與巨災債券價格之變動呈現反向關係；然而在理賠門檻值的設定，以及巨災事件造成損失值達到理賠門檻後，投資人能領回之本金比例方面，則會與巨災債券價格之變動呈正向關係。最後，本文採用市場上實際發行之Muteki地震債券價格資訊，校估巨災事件發生頻率與預期損失，結果發現債券投資人對於災害發生頻率之預期遠高於債券發行方所提供的災害發生頻率，因此投資人只願意用較低的價格來購買此張地震債券以獲取較高的風險溢酬，也回應了一般而言巨災債券評等較低的現象。 / The contribution of this article is deriving the closed-form formula for catastrophe bonds with default risk, basis risk and moral hazard. We also calibrate parameters with the market information of Muteki catastrophe bond and the loss data from National geophysical data center. In order to understand the influence of the parameters, we check the results with sensitivity analysis. The results show that the consideration of default risk, basis risk, and moral hazard will drive down the catastrophe bond prices. We also discover that the loss frequency, loss severity, and interest rate elasticity of asset are correlated positively with the price of catastrophe bond; the setting of the trigger and the portion of the principal that investors can get back when the forgiveness trigger has been pulled are correlated negatively with the price of catastrophe bond. Eventually, we adopt the issuant information and the market price of the Muteki earthquake bond to calibrate the parameters of loss frequency and loss severity with our closed-form formula. We find that investors’ expectation of the seismic frequency are higher than issuers’, so investors only want to buy the catastrophe bonds with lower price, and to enhance the risk premium.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0993520041 |
| Creators | 李峻豪 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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