[pt] Este trabalho se fundamenta teoricamente na importância da inserção, na escola básica, tanto da interdisciplinaridade como da abordagem da resolução de problemas. O principal objetivo é dar significado a conceitos matemáticos fazendo conexões com outras áreas do saber. O conceito matemático aqui desenvolvido é o teorema de Bayes, muito utilizado no campo probabilístico e frequentemente estudado no ensino médio. O produto educacional, fruto dessa pesquisa, consiste numa sequência de atividades que conectam o referido teorema com conteúdos de áreas diversas como Artes, Geografia, Astronomia, História, Música e até mesmo com o jogo de xadrez. Todas as atividades se baseiam na abordagem da resolução de problemas e promovem a interdisciplinaridade, na busca de um estudo de Matemática motivador e carregado de significado na escola básica. / [en] This work is theoretically based on the importance of including, since the beginning of education levels, both interdisciplinarity and a problem-solving approach. The main objective is to give meaning to mathematical concepts by making connections with other areas of knowledge. The mathematical concept developed here is Bayes theorem, widely used in the probabilistic field and frequently studied in high school. The educational product, the result of this research, consists of a sequence of activities that connect the aforementioned theorem with subjects from different areas such as Arts, Geography, Astronomy, History, Music and even the chess game. All activities are based on a problem-solving approach and promote interdisciplinarity, in the search for a motivating and meaningful study of Mathematics in high school.

In present thesis we study and describe a stochastic loss reserve model for individual insurers. Specifically, it is the model based on the three following features. Modelling of expected claims depends on unknown parameters which estimates need to be the most accurate. Aggregated occurred and paid losses for particular years are modelled by a collective risk model. The final reserve is estimated by Bayesian methodology that uses a prior information from a significant number of insurers. Part of the thesis is also an implementation of the program that calculates reserves by using our model and its testing on simulated data.

Introdução: O Estado de São Paulo, por compreender aproximadamente 40% dos casos de aids notificados no Brasil, oferece situação favorável para análise espaço-temporal, visando melhor compreensão da disseminação do HIV/aids. Objetivo: Avaliar a adequação de um modelo espaço-temporal para análise da dinâmica de disseminação da aids segundo áreas geográficas. Material e método: Foram utilizados os casos de aids notificados ao Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Ministério da Saúde) nos anos de 1990 a 2004 para pessoas com idade igual ou superior a 15 anos e foram criados os riscos relativos de ter aids segundo sexo para períodos de 3 anos utilizando modelos bayesianos completos supondo disseminação geográfica local e disseminação geográfica global. Resultados: O crescimento da aids no interior do Estado de São Paulo é apresentado claramente pelos modelos ajustados uma vez que entre os 50 municípios com maiores riscos relativos de aids no último período do estudo a maioria é do interior. As taxas estimadas de crescimento da aids para as mulheres foram, em sua maioria, de 200% a 300%, enquanto que para os homens este crescimento foi de 100% a 200%. Conclusão: O modelo bayesiano com disseminação global se mostrou mais adequado para explicação da epidemia de aids no Estado de São Paulo, pois não foi encontrada expansão espacial da aids no Estado, mas sim o crescimento local da doença. Os modelos corroboram os fenômenos de feminização e interiorização descritos à exaustão na literatura, o que indica suas adequações. / Introduction: The State of São Paulo, with approximately 40% of the notified cases of AIDS in Brazil, offers a favorable opportunity for a space-time analysis of this disease, which can provide a better understanding of the dissemination of the HIV/AIDS. Objective: To evaluate the adequacy of on space-time modeling to analyze the dynamics of AIDS dissemination according to geographic areas. Methods: Cases of AIDS reported to the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (National Disease Reporting System) (SINAN - Ministry of Health) from 1990 to 2004, for people aged 15 years or older were selected. Relative risks of aids for each sex for periods of 3 years were created using complete bayesians models assuming local and global geographic dissemination. Results: The performed analyzes showed that these models were adequate to explain the AIDS dissemination in the State of São Paulo and clearly showed the processes of growth among females and in small size cities. Among the 50 cities with the largest relative risks of AIDS in the last period of study the majority were in the countryside. In general estimated growth rates of AIDS among females were between 200% and 300% while for males were between 100% and 200%. Conclusion: The bayesian model with global dissemination was more adequate to explain the AIDS epidemic in the State of São Paulo since no spatial spreading was observed but instead a local expansion of the disease. The models were consistent with the processes of growth among females and in small size cities, described in the literature indicating their adequacy.

The concern of this thesis is to discuss classification of different objects based on longitudinal observations. In the first instance the reader is introduced to a linear mixed-effects model which is useful for longitudinal data modeling. Description of discriminant analysis methods follows. These methods ares usually used for classification based on longitudinal observations. Individual methods are introduced in the theoretic aspect. Random effects approach is generalized to continuous time. Subsequently the methods and features of the linear mixed-effects model are applied to real data. Finally features of the methods are studied with help of simulations.

Submitted by Elimar Veloso Conceição null (eli_fisica@hotmail.com) on 2018-09-12T14:33:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Elimar_Valuation_rev_27_08_2018_REVISADA_bancafinal.pdf: 2725779 bytes, checksum: 6720ea56f43ebf29faa7b75f0342a1a4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Neli Silvia Pereira null (nelisps@fcav.unesp.br) on 2018-09-13T11:18:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 conceicao_ev_me_jabo.pdf: 2725779 bytes, checksum: 6720ea56f43ebf29faa7b75f0342a1a4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-13T11:18:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 conceicao_ev_me_jabo.pdf: 2725779 bytes, checksum: 6720ea56f43ebf29faa7b75f0342a1a4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-27 / Objetivo: Valorar um projeto de inovação oriundo da estratégia de diversificação de produtos, considerando as incertezas e a flexibilidade como fontes de valor ao projeto. Metodologia / Procedimentos de Pesquisa: É apresentado um estudo de caso, valorado por meio de opções reais, com a possibilidade de inclusão de novas informações, modeladas pelo Teorema de Bayes, as quais possibilitam ajustar às probabilidades iniciais do projeto. Resultados e Discussões: Espera-se que os resultados apontem para o efeito da nova informação e implicações na criação de valor para a empresa. Implicações Gerenciais: Demonstrar à comunidade, aos profissionais de mercado e acadêmicos a necessidade de uma abordagem mais profunda e sistêmica para o uso de estratégias de investimento, considerando fatores endógenos e exógenos à firma. Conclusões e Limitações da Pesquisa: Ao analisar um projeto de inovação com elevado nível de incerteza, variáveis probabilísticas podem não ser suficientes para mensurar o desempenho futuro do investimento. Assim, o conhecimento tácito, criado a partir de todo o conhecimento acumulado pelos tomadores de decisão, fornecem informações que podem e devem ser utilizadas para a avaliação do investimento. O presente estudo não considerou o valor da sinergia criada pela implementação deste novo projeto na estrutura organizacional, nem foram utilizados profissionais externos para a projeção dos fluxos de caixa. Originalidade: A originalidade reside em avaliar um projeto de inovação com a utilização de opções reais em conjunto com uma abordagem bayesiana em uma indústria de autopeças agrícolas, permitindo com isto, o incremento de novas informações, sem a utilização de métodos estocásticos para a determinação da volatilidade. / Objective: Value an innovation project from the product diversification strategy, considering the uncertainties and flexibility as sources of value to the project. Methodology / Research Procedures: We present a case study, evaluated through real options, with the possibility of including new information, modeled by Bayes' Theorem, in which they can adjust the probabilities of the initials of the project. Results and discussions: The results are expected to point to the effect of new information and implications on value creation for the company. Management Implications: Demonstrate to the community, market professionals and academics the need for a more profound and systemic approach to the use of investment strategies, considering factors that are endogenous and exogenous to the firm. Conclusions and Limitations of the Research: When analyzing an innovation project with a high level of uncertainty, probabilistic variables may not be sufficient to measure the future performance of the investment, thus, tacit knowledge, created from all the knowledge accumulated by decision makers, provides information that can and should be used for the evaluation of the investment. The present study did not consider the value of the synergy created by the implementation of this new project in the organizational structure, nor were external professionals used for the projection of cash flows. Originality: The originality lies in evaluating an innovation project with the use of real options together a bayesian approach in an agricultural autoparts industry, allowing with this, the increment of new information, without the use of stochastic methods to determine the volatility.

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-07-16T19:04:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ROSÂNGELA DA SILVA FIGUEIREDO - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGMAT 2007..pdf: 463444 bytes, checksum: 917a85b81e55496d6077fbf99966cab0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-16T19:04:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ROSÂNGELA DA SILVA FIGUEIREDO - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGMAT 2007..pdf: 463444 bytes, checksum: 917a85b81e55496d6077fbf99966cab0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-03 / Neste trabalho estudamos o Modelo de Covariância com Erro nas Variáveis, onde os erros têm distribuição elípitca, sob uma pespectiva Bayesiana. Para tanto usamos umainformaçãoapriori dotiponãoinformativa,propostaporJeffrey(1961),efazemos inferências sobre os parâmetros do modelo em estudo. Mostramos que, para qualquer modelo de covariância elíptico com erro nas variáveis combinado com a priori do tipo não informativa, conduz às mesmas análises da posteriori correspondente ao modelo de covariância normal com erro nas variáveis. / In this work the Model of Covariance with error in their variables will be studied, where these errors have elliptical distributions, under a Bayesian perspective. In order to accomplish this we will use “a priori” information of the not informative type, as proposed forJeffrey(1961),and we will make inferences on the parameters of the studied model. It will be showed that for any model of covariance with elliptical error in their variables, combined with “a priori” information of the not informative type, the results will lead to the same analyses obtained through the posteriori analyses that correspond to the normal model of covariance with errors in their variables.

Introdução: O Estado de São Paulo, por compreender aproximadamente 40% dos casos de aids notificados no Brasil, oferece situação favorável para análise espaço-temporal, visando melhor compreensão da disseminação do HIV/aids. Objetivo: Avaliar a adequação de um modelo espaço-temporal para análise da dinâmica de disseminação da aids segundo áreas geográficas. Material e método: Foram utilizados os casos de aids notificados ao Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Ministério da Saúde) nos anos de 1990 a 2004 para pessoas com idade igual ou superior a 15 anos e foram criados os riscos relativos de ter aids segundo sexo para períodos de 3 anos utilizando modelos bayesianos completos supondo disseminação geográfica local e disseminação geográfica global. Resultados: O crescimento da aids no interior do Estado de São Paulo é apresentado claramente pelos modelos ajustados uma vez que entre os 50 municípios com maiores riscos relativos de aids no último período do estudo a maioria é do interior. As taxas estimadas de crescimento da aids para as mulheres foram, em sua maioria, de 200% a 300%, enquanto que para os homens este crescimento foi de 100% a 200%. Conclusão: O modelo bayesiano com disseminação global se mostrou mais adequado para explicação da epidemia de aids no Estado de São Paulo, pois não foi encontrada expansão espacial da aids no Estado, mas sim o crescimento local da doença. Os modelos corroboram os fenômenos de feminização e interiorização descritos à exaustão na literatura, o que indica suas adequações. / Introduction: The State of São Paulo, with approximately 40% of the notified cases of AIDS in Brazil, offers a favorable opportunity for a space-time analysis of this disease, which can provide a better understanding of the dissemination of the HIV/AIDS. Objective: To evaluate the adequacy of on space-time modeling to analyze the dynamics of AIDS dissemination according to geographic areas. Methods: Cases of AIDS reported to the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (National Disease Reporting System) (SINAN - Ministry of Health) from 1990 to 2004, for people aged 15 years or older were selected. Relative risks of aids for each sex for periods of 3 years were created using complete bayesians models assuming local and global geographic dissemination. Results: The performed analyzes showed that these models were adequate to explain the AIDS dissemination in the State of São Paulo and clearly showed the processes of growth among females and in small size cities. Among the 50 cities with the largest relative risks of AIDS in the last period of study the majority were in the countryside. In general estimated growth rates of AIDS among females were between 200% and 300% while for males were between 100% and 200%. Conclusion: The bayesian model with global dissemination was more adequate to explain the AIDS epidemic in the State of São Paulo since no spatial spreading was observed but instead a local expansion of the disease. The models were consistent with the processes of growth among females and in small size cities, described in the literature indicating their adequacy.

空載雷射掃描為一可快速獲取地面物體三維空間資訊之技術，而新型發展之全波形（Full-Waveform）系統可完整記錄雷射回波訊號之波形，透過波形偵測與波形擬合等資料前處理，可得到代表地物獨特反射特性的波形參數資料，包括振幅值（Amplitude）、波形寬（Pulse-width）與後續計算之散射截面積係數（Backscatter cross-section coefficient）。 得到各點位之波形資料後，將以波形資料為主進行位於山區之實驗區地物分類，並將使用由實驗區航照影像提供之RGB波段光譜資料計算之綠度指數（Greenness）與計算影像灰階統計值之紋理參數如均質度（Homogeneity）、熵值（Entropy）與R波段平均值（Mean）等參數輔助分類。分類進行之前，透過抽樣實驗區候選地類包括樹林、草地、道路與樹種建物，並以貝氏定理（Bayes Theorem）分析計算不同地物類別在各分類參數區間內的貝氏機率，接著以多項式函數擬合各地類在不同參數之貝氏機率曲線，並以計算反曲點之方式自動化決定該分類參數之門檻值區間。 分類成果顯示，全波形系統提供之波形資料對於受上層植物遮蔽與陰影區之植物點與道路點之分類有顯著之成果，且透過物體對於波形資料之反射特性不同，具備應用於區別不同建築材質類別之潛力。 / Airborne Laser Scanning is a technique capable of acquiring 3D information of land objects. The latest full-waveform system is further improved with the ability of recording complete waveform of reflected laser signal. After the preprocessing procedures such as pulse detection and pulse fitting, the waveform information including amplitude, pulse width and backscatter cross-section were derived. Such information was valuable as they represented unique properties of land objects. In this study, waveform information of all scanned points were utilized to classify land cover in the test area located in mountain area. Additionally, the Greenness value as well as the texture parameters such as Homogeneity, Entropy and Mean of R band calculated from the ortho-image were used for classification. We aimed to classify the point cloud into vegetation, road and building categories. The Bayes Theorem was used to determine the threshold range of each parameters for classification. As a result, the waveform information were useful for classifying road points covered by upper vegetation points and also vegetation and road points located in shadow area. Moreover, through the analysis of reflective properties of different object using waveform parameters, it was of potential to be applied to distinguish material of buildings.

No description available.

在植被覆蓋的山區中，由於空載雷射掃描可穿透植被間縫隙的特性，有較高機會收集到植被下的地面資訊，因此適合作為製作植被覆蓋地區數值高程模型的資料來源，而在過濾過程中，一般僅利用點雲間的三維位置關係進行幾何過濾，而全波形空載雷射掃描可另外提供點位的波形寬、振幅值、散射截面積以及散射截面積數等波形資料，本研究將透過波形資料分析進行點雲過濾。 首先經最低點採樣後，本研究利用貝氏定理自動分析並計算得到地面點的波形資料的特徵區間範圍，採用振幅值、散射截面積以及散射截面積係數得到的特徵區間範圍開始第一階段的波形資料過濾，完成後再以第二階段的一般幾何過濾濾除剩餘之非地面點，最後的成果將與航測以及只採用幾何過濾時的成果比較。 由研究成果中顯示，不同的植被覆蓋間的單一回波波形資料的差異較明顯，最後回波類似。同一植被覆蓋下的單一回波及最後回波反應不同。而在成果的比較中，本實驗的成果與不採用波形資料輔助的成果大致相同本研究的成果在部分植被覆蓋的區域成果稍差，但透過波形過濾，可將幾何過濾所需計算的點雲數減少許多，可以增進整理過濾的效率。本研究的成果與航測相比時，在植被覆蓋區域較航測成果貼近實際的地面起伏，數值高程模型成果較為正確。 / In mountain areas covered with vegetation, discrete airborne laser scanning is an appropriate technique to produce DEMs for its laser signal is able to reach the ground beneath the vegetation. Once the scanned data was derived, point cloud filtering was performed based on the geometry relationship between the points at the processing stage. With the development of the advanced full-waveform laser scanning system, the additional waveform data has been proved useful for improving the performance of point cloud filtering. This research therefore focused on using the waveform data to extract DEM over vegetation covered area. The amplitude, backscatter cross-section and backscatter cross-section coefficient were the waveform parameters used to do the filtering. After initial waveform analysis was accomplished, an automated method to determine threshold range of each parameter representing ground points was proposed. By applying the thresholds, the original point cloud was filtered. Geometric filtering method was then used to eliminate the remained non-ground points. As a result, the DEM over the target vegetated area was derived. With the comparison against photogrammetric DEM and DEM derived from traditional filtering method, it was demonstrated that the quality of the resultant DEM was improved.