Ce manuscrit est dédié à l'étude de l'estimation paramétrique d'une famille de processus ponctuels appelée processus déterminantaux. Ces processus sont utilisés afin de générer et modéliser des configurations de points possédant de la dépendance négative, dans le sens où les points ont tendance à se repousser entre eux. Plus précisément, nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de divers estimateurs classiques de processus déterminantaux paramétriques, stationnaires et non-stationnaires, dans les cas où l'on observe une unique réalisation d'un tel processus sur une fenêtre bornée. Ici, l'asymptotique se fait sur la taille de la fenêtre et donc, indirectement, sur le nombre de points observés. Dans une première partie, nous montrons un théorème limite central pour une classe générale de statistiques sur les processus déterminantaux. Dans une seconde partie, nous montrons une inégalité de béta-mélange générale pour les processus ponctuels que nous appliquons ensuite aux processus déterminantaux. Dans une troisième partie, nous appliquons le théorème limite central obtenu à la première partie à une classe générale de fonctions estimantes basées sur des méthodes de moments. Finalement, dans la dernière partie, nous étudions le comportement asymptotique du maximum de vraisemblance des processus déterminantaux. Nous donnons une approximation asymptotique de la log-vraisemblance qui est calculable numériquement et nous étudions la consistance de son maximum. / This manuscript is devoted to the study of parametric estimation of a point process family called determinantal point processes. These point processes are used to generate and model point patterns with negative dependency, meaning that the points tend to repel each other. More precisely, we study the asymptotic properties of various classical parametric estimators of determinantal point processes, stationary and non stationary, when considering that we observe a unique realization of such a point process on a bounded window. In this case, the asymptotic is done on the size of the window and therefore, indirectly, on the number of observed points. In the first chapter, we prove a central limit theorem for a wide class of statistics on determinantal point processes. In the second chapter, we show a general beta-mixing inequality for point processes and apply our result to the determinantal case. In the third chapter, we apply the central limit theorem showed in the first chapter to a wide class of moment-based estimating functions. Finally, in the last chapter, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimator of determinantal point processes. We give an asymptotic approximation of the log-likelihood that is computationally tractable and we study the consistency of its maximum.

<p>This thesis consists of four papers, all concerning random iteration of isometries. The papers are:</p><p>I. Ambroladze A, Ådahl M, Random iteration of isometries in unbounded metric spaces. Nonlinearity 16 (2003) 1107-1117.</p><p>II. Ådahl M, Random iteration of isometries controlled by a Markov chain. Manuscript.</p><p>III. Ådahl M, Melbourne I, Nicol M, Random iteration of Euclidean isometries. Nonlinearity 16 (2003) 977-987.</p><p>IV. Johansson A, Ådahl M, Recurrence of a perturbed random walk and an iterated function system depending on a parameter. Manuscript.</p><p>In the first paper we consider an iterated function system consisting of isometries on an unbounded metric space. Under suitable conditions it is proved that the random orbit {<i>Z</i>n} ^∞_n=0, of the iterations corresponding to an initial point Z₀, “escapes to infinity" in the sense that <i>P</i>(<i>Z</i>n Є <i>K)</i> → 0, as <i>n</i> → ∞ for every bounded set <i>K</i>. As an application we prove the corresponding result in the Euclidean and hyperbolic spaces under the condition that the isometries do not have a common fixed point.</p><p>In the second paper we let a Markov chain control the random orbit of an iterated function system of isometries on an unbounded metric space. We prove under necessary conditions that the random orbit \escapes to infinity" and we also give a simple geometric description of these conditions in the Euclidean and hyperbolic spaces. The results generalises the results of Paper I.</p><p>In the third paper we consider the statistical behaviour of the reversed random orbit corresponding to an iterated function system consisting of a finite number of Euclidean isometries of <b>R</b>n. We give a new proof of the central limit theorem and weak invariance principles, and we obtain the law of the iterated logarithm. Our results generalise immediately to Markov chains. Our proofs are based on dynamical systems theory rather than a purely probabilistic approach.</p><p>In the fourth paper we obtain a suficient condition for the recurrence of a perturbed (one-sided) random walk on the real line. We apply this result to the study of an iterated function system depending on a parameter and defined on the open unit disk in the complex plane. </p>

This thesis consists of four papers, all concerning random iteration of isometries. The papers are: I. Ambroladze A, Ådahl M, Random iteration of isometries in unbounded metric spaces. Nonlinearity 16 (2003) 1107-1117. II. Ådahl M, Random iteration of isometries controlled by a Markov chain. Manuscript. III. Ådahl M, Melbourne I, Nicol M, Random iteration of Euclidean isometries. Nonlinearity 16 (2003) 977-987. IV. Johansson A, Ådahl M, Recurrence of a perturbed random walk and an iterated function system depending on a parameter. Manuscript. In the first paper we consider an iterated function system consisting of isometries on an unbounded metric space. Under suitable conditions it is proved that the random orbit {Zn} ∞n=0, of the iterations corresponding to an initial point Z0, “escapes to infinity" in the sense that P(Zn Є K) → 0, as n → ∞ for every bounded set K. As an application we prove the corresponding result in the Euclidean and hyperbolic spaces under the condition that the isometries do not have a common fixed point. In the second paper we let a Markov chain control the random orbit of an iterated function system of isometries on an unbounded metric space. We prove under necessary conditions that the random orbit \escapes to infinity" and we also give a simple geometric description of these conditions in the Euclidean and hyperbolic spaces. The results generalises the results of Paper I. In the third paper we consider the statistical behaviour of the reversed random orbit corresponding to an iterated function system consisting of a finite number of Euclidean isometries of <b>R</b>n. We give a new proof of the central limit theorem and weak invariance principles, and we obtain the law of the iterated logarithm. Our results generalise immediately to Markov chains. Our proofs are based on dynamical systems theory rather than a purely probabilistic approach. In the fourth paper we obtain a suficient condition for the recurrence of a perturbed (one-sided) random walk on the real line. We apply this result to the study of an iterated function system depending on a parameter and defined on the open unit disk in the complex plane.

This thesis consists of two papers devoted to the asymptotics of random matrix ensembles and measure valued stochastic processes which can be considered as generalizations of the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) of Hermitian matrices H=A+A†, where the entries of A are independent identically distributed (iid) centered complex Gaussian random variables. In the first paper, a system of interacting diffusing particles on the real line is studied; special cases include the eigenvalue dynamics of matrix-valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes (Dyson's Brownian motion). It is known that the empirical measure process converges weakly to a deterministic measure-valued function and that the appropriately rescaled fluctuations around this limit converge weakly to a Gaussian distribution-valued process. For a large class of analytic test functions, explicit formulae are derived for the mean and covariance functionals of this fluctuation process. The second paper concerns a family of random matrix ensembles interpolating between the GUE and the Ginibre ensemble of n x n matrices with iid centered complex Gaussian entries. The asymptotic spectral distribution in these models is uniform in an ellipse in the complex plane, which collapses to an interval of the real line as the degree of non-Hermiticity diminishes. Scaling limit theorems are proven for the eigenvalue point process at the rightmost edge of the spectrum, and it is shown that a non-trivial transition occurs between Poisson and Airy point process statistics when the ratio of the axes of the supporting ellipse is of order n -1/3. / Denna avhandling består av två vetenskapliga artiklar som handlar om gränsvärdessatser för slumpmatriser och måttvärda stokastiska processer. De modeller som studeras kan betraktas som generaliseringar av den gaussiska unitära ensembeln (GUE) av hermiteska n x n-matriser H=A+A†, där A är en matris vars element är oberoende, likafördelade, centrerade, komplexa normalfördelade stokastiska variabler. I artikel I betraktas ett system av växelverkande diffunderande partiklar på reella linjen, vissa specialfall av denna modell kan tolkas som egenvärdesdynamiken för matrisvärda Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-processer (Dysons brownska rörelse). Sedan tidigare är det känt att den empiriska måttprocessen konvergerar svagt mot en deterministisk måttvärd funktion och att fluktuationerna runt denna gräns, i lämplig skalning, konvergerer svagt mot en distributionsvärd gaussisk process. För en stor klass av analytiska testfunktioner härleds explicita formler för medelvärdes- och kovariansfunktionalerna för denna fluktuationsprocess. Artikel II behandlar en familj av slumpmatrisensembler som interpolerar mellan GUE och Ginibre-ensembeln, bestående av matriser A som ovan. För denna modell är egenvärdena komplexa och asymptotiskt likformigt fördelade i en ellips i komplexa planet. Skalningsgränsvärdessatser för egenvärdet med maximal realdel och för egenvärdespunktprocessen kring detta visas för ett allmänt val av interpolationsparametern i modellen. Då förhållandet mellan axlarna i den asymptotiska ellipsen är av storleksordning n-1/3 uppträder en övergångsfas mellan Airypunktprocess- och Poissonprocessbeteendena, typiska för GUE respektive Ginibre-ensembeln. / QC 20100705

Šiame magistriniame darbe yra nagrinėjami nepriklausomi vienodai pasiskirstę atsitiktiniai dydžiai, turintys visus absoliutinius baigtinius momentus. Magistrinio darbo tikslas - atlikti konvergavimo greičio į normalųjį dėsnį įvertinimą. Darbą sudaro aštuoni skyriai. Įvade aprašoma problema ir visi tyrimo parametrai. Antrasis skyrius skirtas teoriniai analizei. Šiame skyriuje pateikiamos svarbiausios teorinės žinios ir metodai, kurie bus taikomi magistrinio darbo uždaviniams bei tikslams įgyvendinti. Trečiame skyriuje nagrinėjami kumuliantai Bernulio schemos atveju, o ketvirtame - analizuojamas Čebyšovo asimptotinis skleidinys ir pasinaudojus matematiniu paketu Maple, grafiniu būdu, tyrinėjamas jo konvergavimas. Aproksimacijos normaliuoju dėsniu tikslumui įvertinti naudojamas charakteristinių funkcijų metodas, todėl penktasis skyrius yra skiriamas suglodinimo nelygybių patikslinimui. Šeštame skyriuje, pasinaudojus turimais rezultatais, realizuojamas magistrinio darbo tikslas, o septintame - patikrinamas absoliutinės paklaidos įvertis Bernulio schemos atveju. Išvados ir rezultatai glaustai išdėstomi aštuntame skyriuje. / This master thesis considers independiant and identically distributed random variables, having absolute finite moments. The main task is to determine error estimate of the normal approximation. The work consists of eight chapters. In the introduction are considered problems and all subjects of research. The second chapter is designed for the theory analysis. Here are placed the main theoretical studies and methods that are used to solve the aims of the master thesis. The third chapter is intended to deal with cumulants in case of the Bernoulli’s distribution, the fourth one - is analyzing the Čebyšova’s asymptotic expansion and it convergence with the help of the mathematical package Maple. The method of characteristic’s functions is used to find the remainder term of the normal approximation, so the fifth chapter is designed to specify smoothing inequalities. Based on these results, the main task of the master thesis was obtained and specified in the sixth chapter. In the seventh one the error estimate in case of Bernoulli’s distribution, was examined with a mathematical package Maple. The short conclusions and results are placed in the eighth chapter.

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Three classes of structural change tests (or tests for parameter instability) which have been receiving much attention in both the statistics and econometrics communities but have been developed in rather loosely connected lines of research are unified by embedding them into the framework of generalized M-fluctuation tests (Zeileis and Hornik, 2003). These classes are tests based on F statistics (supF, aveF, expF tests), on OLS residuals (OLS-based CUSUM and MOSUM tests) and on maximum likelihood scores (including the Nyblom-Hansen test). We show that (represantives from) these classes are special cases of the generalized M-fluctuation tests, based on the same functional central limit theorem, but employing different functionals for capturing excessive fluctuations. After embedding these tests into the same framework and thus understanding the relationship between these procedures for testing in historical samples, it is shown how the tests can also be extended to a monitoring situation. This is achieved by establishing a general M-fluctuation monitoring procedure and then applying the different functionals corresponding to monitoring with F statistics, OLS residuals and ML scores. In particular, an extension of the supF test to a monitoring scenario is suggested and illustrated on a real-world data set. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Dans cette thèse nous étudions les théorèmes limites dans l’analyse statistique dessystèmes dynamiques. Le premier chapitre est consacré aux notions des bases des systèmesdynamiques ainsi que la théorie ergodique. Dans le deuxième chapitre nous introduisonsun cadre fonctionnel abstrait pour lequel la version quenched du théorème de la limitecentrale (TLC) en dimension 1 pour les systèmes dynamiques uniformément dilatantsest satisfaite sous une condition de validité nécessaire et suffisante. Le troisième chapitreest consacré au principe d’invariance presque sûr (PIPS) pour les application aléatoiresdilatantes par morceaux. Nous présentons certaines hypothèses sous lesquelles le (PIPS)est vérifié en utilisant la méthode d’approximation des martingales de Cuny et Merlèvede.Nous étudions aussi le théorème de Sprindzuk et ses conséquences. Nous établissons dansle chapitre quatre la décroissance des corrélations pour les systèmes dynamiques aléatoiresuniformément dilatants par la méthode de couplage en dimension 1. Nous terminons cetravail par une présentation des concepts de base de la théorie des mesures et probabilitéset une présentation de l’espace des fonctions à variation bornée. / In this thesis we study the limit theorems in the statistical analysis of dynamicalsystems. The first chapter is devoted to the basic notions in dynamical systems as well asthe ergodic theory. In the second chapter we introduce an abstract functional frameworkunder which the quenched version of the central limit theorem (CLT) in dimension 1for uniformly expanding dynamic systems is satisfied under a necessary and sufficientcondition validity. The third chapter is devoted to the almost sure invariance principle(ASIP) for random piecewise expanding maps. We present some hypotheses under whichthe (ASIP) is verified using the method of approximation of the martingales of Cuny andMerlèvede. We also study the Sprindzuk theorem and its consequences. In chapter four,we define the decay of correlations for the random dynamical systems uniformly expandingby the coupling method in dimension 1. We finish this work with a presentation of thebasic concepts of the theory of measures and probabilities and a presentation of the spaceof functions with bounded variation.

"The purposes of this study were: (1) to investigate the effectiveness of the computer-student interactive method in presenting statistical concepts and in instructing students in the applications of these concepts, and (2) to develop instruments that test for the understanding of these concepts and the mastery of these application skills"--Abstract. / Typescript. / "Spring Semester, 1990." / "Submitted to the Department of Curriculum and Instruction in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy." / Advisor: E. T. Denmark, Professor Directing Dissertation. / Includes bibliographical references.