[pt] Este trabalho apresenta um ambiente integrado para o estudo de figuras articuladas sobre efeito de carregamentos dinâmicos. É apresentado um sistema de animação por computador que busca o realismo do movimento a partir da análise dinâmica. Três aspectos são abordados: o Método dos Elementos Componentes para descrever os efeitos de carregamentos sobre as partes dos corpos articulados, o Método de Aproximação por Diferenças Gráfica como um meio de representar, através de imagens realistas, os efeitos de movimento das figuras articuladas sobre carregamentos dinâmicos. / [en] This work presents an integrated environment to the study of articulated bodies under dynamic efforts. It is present a Computer Animation System which tries to realistically represent the movement by means of dynamic analysis. This work comprises three aspects: The Component Element Method to describe the parts of articulated bodies, The Finite Differebce Approximation, to analyze the behavior of each element and Computer Graphics as means to represent, through realistic imagens, the effects of dynamic loads under the articulated bodies.

In these days one of the global problem seems to be continuous population growth. The most quickly rising population can be found predictably in the poorest developing countries of the world, which also have trouble with meeting basic demands of its inhabitants. That is why it is necessary to closely watch population trend, because it noticeably influences many social-economic issues like sufficiency of work opportunity, access to the education, housing etc.. This diploma thesis focuses on monitoring of population development of Slovak republic till 2025. The aim of thesis is creation of simulative model in program SIMPROCESS 4.3.1, which will offer transparent results of population development forecast. These model results in program SIMPROCESS 4.3.1 are compared with official population development forecast in Slovakia till 2025 published by Statistical Office of Slovak republic in 2007. The thesis is focused in detail on monitoring of demographical indicators like birth rate, mortality rate and migration.

This thesis is focused on the development of HIV/AIDS mortality in the world starting from the year 1990 and the main goal is estimating the possible future development of the number of inhabitants of the world and defined regions and the influence of HIV/AIDS on the number of inhabitants up to the year 2065. The possible number of HIV/AIDS deaths and people, who were not born because of HIV and AIDS, is computed up to this year. In the theoretical part of the thesis, the most important institutions, which include fight against HIV and AIDS as a part of ther programme, are presented. Natural history of HIV infection and the successes in the research of HIV vaccine are described. In the analytical part, the demographic reproduction of the population of the world and selected regions between years 1950 and 2010 is described, followed by population projection of the world and regions up to year 2065 using the cohort component method. The projection is created in four variants. The first one eliminates the HIV/AIDS mortality. The second one is the constant variant, which conserve the level of HIV/AIDS mortality from the year 2010 up to the year 2065. Last two variants, higher and lower, consider changing levels of HIV/AIDS mortality at time. According to the results of this population projection,...

Esta pesquisa apresenta um amplo programa experimental de ligações viga mista-pilar com cantoneiras de alma e assento, incluindo protótipos isolados e ligações inseridas num pavimento tipo constituído de laje pré-moldada com vigotas e lajotas cerâmicas. Os objetivos do trabalho foram avaliar os efeitos da fissuração da laje no comportamento da ligação (rigidez inicial e momento resistente), o acréscimo da taxa de armadura secundária e os detalhes propostos para a ancoragem das armaduras longitudinais. Nos ensaios experimentais foram analisadas as rotações das ligações, deslocamentos e deformações nos elementos. Para o estudo teórico, tomou-se como referência o Método das Componentes do EUROCODE 3 e 4. Paralelamente, um estudo numérico para ligações mistas foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de incluir a laje de concreto, as armaduras longitudinais e transversais, além da não linearidade física e geométrica na análise por elementos finitos. De acordo com os resultados, a condição prévia de fissuração da laje mostrou-se menos relevante que a continuidade das vigas na direção do eixo de menor inércia do pilar, no que se refere à determinação da rigidez inicial e resistência das ligações mista inseridas num pavimento tipo. A metodologia de modelagem numérica foi capaz de representar de forma satisfatória os mecanismos plásticos e os estados limites últimos da ligação. / This research presents an extensive experimental study of the structural behavior of the beam-to-column composite connections with bottom and web angle, including isolated prototypes and typical floor with slab made of precast joist with lattice and bricks. The objectives were to evaluate concrete slab cracking effects in the composite connections behavior (initial stiffness and resistant moment), the secondary steel ratio increase and the proposed details for the longitudinal steel bars anchorage. In the experimental tests, it was analyzed the connection total rotation, the displacements and deformations in the connection components. The theoretical study was developed based on EURODODE 3 and 4 methodologies. Besides, a numerical study was developed with the purpose of including the concrete slab modelling, the longitudinal and transversal steel bars, and the geometrical and material non-linearity in the finite element analysis. According to the results, the beam continuity through to the column minor axis showed to be more important than the concrete slab previous cracking, for the initial stiffness and resistant moment composite connections behavior in the typical floor. The numerical models represented satisfactorily the plastic mechanism connection and the ultimate limit states.

A general procedure for the evaluation of the mechanical properties of structural joints, named component method, is now available from intensive research works at the European level. This procedure allows the analytical prediction of the resistance, but also of the stiffness and the deformation capacity, of structural joints under external forces (axial or shear forces, bending moments ). The component method is nowadays integrated as a reference procedure in two European design codes, respectively for steel structures (EC3 [EN1993]) and steel-concrete composite structures (EC4 [EN1994]). However, its potential scope is much larger and present studies are aimed to apply to situations as joints in fire, joints under seismic loading, joints under exceptional loads (Robustness Project) . More recently, a research project [CTI-2004] has succeeded in applying the component method to the investigation of the elastic behaviour of mechanical joints in timber construction. That is the result of the collaboration of CTIB-TCHN (Belgian Institute for Wood Technology) and University of Liège. The main principle of the component method is the following: identification of constitutive components subjected to tension, compression or shear in the joint; determination of the mechanical behaviour of these individual components; "assembling" components so as to derive the mechanical properties of the whole joint. In the present paper, timber joints with dowel fasteners are considered. Two components may be identified: "dowel" component (dowel fastener in bending and shear); embedding component (timber member in embedding). The "dowel" component is known from past researches, whereas little information is available for the embedding component. EC5 [EN1995] proposes formulation to predict the behaviour for joints composed of these two components; but it only depends on two factors: the dowel diameter and the timber density. The influence probably significant of the grain direction (material strongly anisotropy) and the thickness of the connected members are for instance neglected. Experimental, numerical and analytical investigations have recently been performed by University of Liège in collaboration with CTIB-TCHN so as to propose another formulation more precise for joints. Experimental results, performed by CTIB-TCHN, have been used as reference for the development of numerical model and, then, analytical model. The application of the component method to the prediction of the elastic behaviour of timber joints consist of two steps: "local" investigation on components that is to develop analytical models for the prediction of the elastic behaviour of components; "global" investigation on joints that is to develop analytical models for the prediction of the elastic behaviour of joints. The application of the component method to timber joints with dowel fasteners is a first step towards the use of this concept in future to others mechanical joints (screw, punched metal plate, nail, bolt ). In this case, others components may be derived to cover the field of application expected.

Esta pesquisa apresenta um amplo programa experimental de ligações viga mista-pilar com cantoneiras de alma e assento, incluindo protótipos isolados e ligações inseridas num pavimento tipo constituído de laje pré-moldada com vigotas e lajotas cerâmicas. Os objetivos do trabalho foram avaliar os efeitos da fissuração da laje no comportamento da ligação (rigidez inicial e momento resistente), o acréscimo da taxa de armadura secundária e os detalhes propostos para a ancoragem das armaduras longitudinais. Nos ensaios experimentais foram analisadas as rotações das ligações, deslocamentos e deformações nos elementos. Para o estudo teórico, tomou-se como referência o Método das Componentes do EUROCODE 3 e 4. Paralelamente, um estudo numérico para ligações mistas foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de incluir a laje de concreto, as armaduras longitudinais e transversais, além da não linearidade física e geométrica na análise por elementos finitos. De acordo com os resultados, a condição prévia de fissuração da laje mostrou-se menos relevante que a continuidade das vigas na direção do eixo de menor inércia do pilar, no que se refere à determinação da rigidez inicial e resistência das ligações mista inseridas num pavimento tipo. A metodologia de modelagem numérica foi capaz de representar de forma satisfatória os mecanismos plásticos e os estados limites últimos da ligação. / This research presents an extensive experimental study of the structural behavior of the beam-to-column composite connections with bottom and web angle, including isolated prototypes and typical floor with slab made of precast joist with lattice and bricks. The objectives were to evaluate concrete slab cracking effects in the composite connections behavior (initial stiffness and resistant moment), the secondary steel ratio increase and the proposed details for the longitudinal steel bars anchorage. In the experimental tests, it was analyzed the connection total rotation, the displacements and deformations in the connection components. The theoretical study was developed based on EURODODE 3 and 4 methodologies. Besides, a numerical study was developed with the purpose of including the concrete slab modelling, the longitudinal and transversal steel bars, and the geometrical and material non-linearity in the finite element analysis. According to the results, the beam continuity through to the column minor axis showed to be more important than the concrete slab previous cracking, for the initial stiffness and resistant moment composite connections behavior in the typical floor. The numerical models represented satisfactorily the plastic mechanism connection and the ultimate limit states.

Traditionally, joints are assumed to be either pinned or fully rigid, but in reality, many behave between these two extremes giving them a semi-rigid classification. By acknowledging the semi-rigidity of nominal pin joints, steel frames can be designed as semi-continuous in which the beam bending moments are partially transmitted to the column members and the need for lateral bracing is eliminated, thus reducing material and construction costs. This thesis presents the results of numerical and theoretical studies of the behaviour of bolted endplate connections to Rectangular Hollow Section (RHS) columns using flowdrill bolts and their applications in semi-continuous frame design. Such connections exhibit significant levels of initial stiffness, strength, and deformation capacity while being more cost-effective than fully welded connections. Despite this, there is limited theoretical work carried out that allows such connections to be designed using analytical methods. In addition, there are no standardised connection design tables like that for open section columns (SCI, 1995), thereby inhibiting their adoption in practice. In this thesis, newly derived equations for initial stiffness that have a greatly improved range of validity and accuracy over existing equations are presented. Equations for bending strength of a newly derived elliptical mechanism based on yield line theory and for membrane action based on internal work principles are given. Equations for flowdrill thread stripping due to gross deformation of the RHS face are also presented thus allowing prediction of all common RHS face failure mechanisms. Equations for deformation capacity are derived thus making it possible to predict the full load-deflection behaviour of the RHS face in tension component. When combined with existing equations for bolt and endplate components, it is possible to predict the full moment-rotation behaviour of bolted endplate connections to RHS columns. Extensive parametric studies using finite element analysis (FEA) as well as validation against existing tests show that the newly derived equations can accurately predict the component-level and whole joint behaviour for a wide range of configurations. Taking advantage of the initial stiffness properties that these connections offer, a parametric study is conducted to show that connections with relatively simple detailing can offer sufficient initial stiffness and strength to enable unbraced semi-continuous design of low-rise steel frames. A hand calculation method for SLS sway in semi-continuous frames is also presented thus allowing the designer to readily carry out scheme designs without advanced software knowledge. A systematic method for the detailing of these connections for use in unbraced frame design is presented to facilitate adoption in practice.

The diploma thesis deals with multivariate statistical methods and their environmental applications. The theoretical part is devoted to selected methods of linear regression analysis, method of principal components and the model of classical and robust factor analysis is also described. In the practical part of thesis, the main emission sources of PM1 aerosols in summer and winter period in Brno and Šlapanice are determined by using the classical factor analysis. The main aerosol emission sources in summer and winter in Šlapanice are also identified by using the robust factor analysis. Furthermore, the prediction of concentrations of PM1 aerosols in summer and winter period in Brno and Šlapanice is performed by using the linear regression model.

國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福 祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺 灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、 遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過 去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各 國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈 大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙 的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研 究之目標。 由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公 式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小 區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小 區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。 本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口 的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 / The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan. In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.

一個國家對全國人口有充分瞭解，方能依據國情制定適合的政策，地方發展更是如此，更須洞悉各地的人口結構，以善用有限的資源。台灣近年人口老化日益明顯，各縣市的老化速度及人口問題也不盡相同，若可獲得各地區未來的人口相關數值 (亦即人口推估)，當能減輕未來人口老化對台灣造成的衝擊。本文以縣市層級的人口推估，也就是小區域人口推估為研究目標，探討需注意的事項，尋找適合台灣地區的小區域推估方法。 本文整理小區域人口推估方法，並使用人口要素變動合成法 (Cohort Component Method)，以雲嘉兩縣、臺北市、澎湖縣為範例，測試縣市層級的人口推估。人口推估與生育、死亡、遷移三者的假設有密切關係，我們以死亡率為目標，比較不同模型的優劣，考慮的模型包括 Lee-Carter 模型、區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)、篩網拔靴法 (Sieve Bootstrap) 以及泛函資料分析 (Functional Data Analysis) 中的主成份分析 (Principle Component Analysis)，以估計誤差為衡量方法優劣的標準。分析發現篩網拔靴法、區塊拔靴法、Lee-Carter 模型三者的結果較佳，因此在小區域推估中使用較簡便的區塊拔靴法。研究發現對小區域的人口推估而言，遷移假設扮演非常重要的角色，此與全國規模的人口推估結果截然不同。研究過程亦發現人口三要素對人口推估有明顯的影響，若假設三要素間互相獨立 (也就是傳統推估時的假設)，推估結果的預測區間遠小於三要素不獨立。 / The government can make policy according to the population change in this country, while the local government can develop their district by using their limited resources well after realizing the populaton structure. The population ageing is becoming more serious and being more different among every counties in Taiwan day by day. If we can get the relative numbers of population in the future (population projection), we can decrease the attack of population ageing for Taiwan. The aim of this paper is to find an appropriate method and some notations of small area population projection in Taiwan. The paper includes the summary of methods of small area population projection and the results by using cohort component method on three areas in Taiwan, YunLin & ChiaYi, Taipein City and PengHu. Population projection is highly related with birth, death and migration, hence we test the mortality rate by using several methods, Lee-Carter, block bootstrap, sieve bootstrap and principal component analysis of functional data analysis are included. We found that the result of sieve bootstrap, block bootstrap and Lee-Carter are much better than the others, therefore, we take block bootstrap which is much simpler than the other two to analysis the effect of birth, death and migration in population projection. The sutdy found that, in small area population projecton, migration plays an important role, which is totally different from the whole country population projection.