This thesis introduces models for pricing credit default swaps (CDS) and evaluating the counterparty risk when buying a CDS in the over-the-counter (OTC) market from a counterpart subjected to default risk. Rather than assuming that the default of the referencing firm of the CDS is independent of the trading parties in the CDS, this thesis proposes models that capture the default correlation amongst the three parties involved in the trade, namely the referencing firm, the buyer and the seller. We investigate how the counterparty risk that CDS buyers face can be affected by default correlation and how their balance sheet could be influenced by the changes in counterparty risk. The correlation of corporate default events has been frequently observed in credit markets due to the close business relationships of certain firms in the economy. One of the many mathematical approaches to model that correlation is default contagion. We propose an innovative model of default contagion which provides more flexibility by allowing the affected firm to recover from a default contagion event. We give a detailed derivation of the partial differential equations (PDE) for valuing both the CDS and the credit value adjustment (CVA). Numerical techniques are exploited to solve these PDEs. We compare our model against other models from the literature when measuring the CVA of an OTC CDS when the default risk of the referencing firm and the CDS seller is correlated. Further, the model is extended to incorporate economy-wide events that will damage all firms' credit at the same time-this is another kind of default correlation. Advanced numerical techniques are proposed to solve the resulting partial-integro differential equations (PIDE). We focus on investigating the different role of default contagion and economy-wide events have in terms of shaping the default correlation and counterparty risk. We complete the study by extending the model to include bilateral counterparty risk, which considers the default of the buyer and the correlation among the three parties. Again, our extension leads to a higher-dimensional problem that we must tackle with hybrid numerical schemes. The CVA and debit value adjustment (DVA) are analysed in detail and we are able to value the profit and loss to the investor's balance sheet due to CVA and DVA profit and loss under different market circumstances including default contagion.

This thesis deals with the default of households as one of the indicators of financial stability in the Czech Republic. Specifically, it studies increasing indeptedness of households and risks which endanger financial system. The aim is to analyze the main macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that affect households default and to determine their dependence on the non-performing loans. The conclusion summarizes the results of the thesis and suggests recommendations for central and commercial banks.

Markov chains have been widely used to the credit risk measurement in the last years. Using these chains we can model movements and distribution of clients within rating grades. However, various types of markov chains could be used. The goal of the theses is to present these types together with their advan- tages and disadvantages. We focus our attention primarily on various parameter estimation methods and hypotheses testing about the parameters. The theses should help the reader with a decision, which model of a markov chain and which method of estimation should be used for him observed data. We focus our attention primarily on the following models: a discrete-time markov chain, a continuous-time markov chain (we estimate based on continuous- time observations even discrete-time observations), moreover we present an even- tuality of using semi-markov chains and semiparametric multiplicative hazard model applied on transition intensities. We illustrate the presented methods on simulation experiments and simu- lation studies in the concluding part. Keywords: credit risk, markov chain, estimates in markov chains, probability of default 1

The aim of the presented work is to investigate possible improvement of scor- ing models prediction power in retail credit segment by using structural models estimating the future development of behavioral score. These models contain the information about past development of the behavioral score by parameters which take into account the sensitivity of clients' probability of default on in- dividual market and life changes. These parameters are estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on score history. Eight different types of struc- tural models were applied on the real data. The diversification measure of indivi- dual models is compared using the Gini coefficient. These structural models were compared with each other and also with the existing scoring model of the credit institution which provided the underlying data. 1

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Felicio Mileo Neto.pdf: 1273950 bytes, checksum: 918a06ee6a1bd5351e3b400a3731cfdd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-14 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / The susceptibility of credit market to losses encouraged the institution of regulations, such as Basel I and II Capital Accords, which stimulated the development of credit portfolio management models. The objective of this dissertation is to observe the behavior of two advanced models of credit portfolio risk, KMV, based on Merton (1974) studies, and CreditRisk+, developed by Credit Suisse Financial Products. The study aims to evaluate the performance of each model in sample credit portfolios, according to market, account and debt data of companies. Through variations in each model parameters, the model`s performances in different scenarios will also be analyzed. The research focuses specifically on loss distributions generated by the models, given the changes in the parameters during the simulations. To achieve these goals, the historical evolution of credit risk is discussed, starting with the first registered loans, in Antiquity, up until the last decade, when many international regulations to credit risk were created. / A suscetibilidade do mercado de crédito a perdas incentivou a criação de regulamentações, como os Acordos de Capital da Basileia I e II, que estimularam o desenvolvimento de modelos de gestão de portfólio de crédito. O objetivo desta dissertação é observar o comportamento de dois modelos avançados de mensuração do risco: o KMV, baseado nos estudos de Merton (1974), e o CreditRisk+, criado pela Credit Suisse Financial Products. O estudo pretende verificar seus desempenhos em amostras de carteiras baseadas em informações contábeis, de mercado e de títulos de dívidas de empresas, através de variações aplicadas nos parâmetros de cada modelo, serão realizadas, também, análises de desempenho dos modelos em diferentes cenários. A pesquisa foca, especificamente, as distribuições de perdas geradas pelos modelos. Para a conclusão desses objetivos, o risco de crédito é abordado conforme sua evolução histórica, iniciando com os primeiros registros de concessão de financiamentos, na Antiguidade, até o passado recente, quando surgiram as principais regulamentações transnacionais para o risco de crédito.

Denna studie syftar till att undersöka huruvida det finns ett samband mellan andelen kvinnor i bankstyrelser i Europa och bankens kreditbetyg. Studien har ett positivistiskt synsätt och präglas av en kvantitativ metod. Studien har vidare använt sig av en tvärsnittsdesign och därmed observerat flera fall vid en given tidpunkt. Den empiriska sekundärdatan är dels insamlad via databasen Thomson Reuters Eikon som erhåller finansiell data från noterade bolag över hela världen. Studien har även hämtat information om kreditbetyg för bankerna via Standard & Poor’s databas. Vidare har en multivariat analys genomförts för att kunna upptäcka ett eventuellt samband mellan den beroende variabeln, kreditbetyg, och den oberoende variabeln, andel kvinnor i styrelsen. Studien presenterar även deskriptiv statistik samt en korrelationsanalys över den insamlade datan. Studiens resultat visar på att det finns ett positivt samband mellan andelens kvinnliga styrelseledamöter i europeiska bankstyrelser och bankens kreditbetyg. Detta betyder således att om andelen kvinnliga styrelseledamöter ökar, så gör även kreditbetyget detsamma vilket indikerar att kreditrisken för banken sjunker. Detta resultat stödjer tidigare studier som menar att kvinnor i styrelser är mer riskaversiva än män (Arayssi et al., 2016; Huang och Kisgen, 2013). Studiens förslag till vidare forskning är att studera flera olika fall över tid, istället för att utgå från en given tidpunkt, vilket skulle möjliggöra undersökning av kausalitet mellan variablerna. Vidare ter det sig intressant att ta hänsyn till styrelseledamöternas ålder i vidare forskning då forskning indikerar att riskprofilen kan förändras beroende på ålder. Ett annat förslag är att inhämta kreditbetyg från fler kreditinstitut än endast S&P för att undersöka om resultatet skulle te sig annorlunda då. Slutligen kan det vara av intresse att ta hänsyn till om banken har spritt eller kontrollerat ägande då dessa faktorer kan tänkas påverka kreditbetyget och således kreditrisken i banken. / The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the proportion of women in bank boards in Europe and the banks credit rating. The study has a positivistic approach and is characterized by a quantitative method to respond to the purpose of the study. Furthermore, the study has used a cross sectional design which means that it has observed several cases at a given time. The empirical data has been collected partly via the database Thomson Reuters Eikon which present financial data from listed companies worldwide. The study has also collected information about the banks credit rating from the database of Standard & Poor. Furthermore, a multivariate analysis has been completed in order to discover any connections between the dependent variable, credit rating and the independent variable, the proportion of women in the board. The study also presents descriptive statistics together with a correlation analysis over the collected data. The result from the study shows a positive correlation between the proportion of female board members in european bank boards and the banks credit rating. This means that if the proportion of women in bank boards increases, the banks credit rating also increases which indicates that the banks credit risk decreases. This result supports previous studies that say that women in boards are more risk averse than men (Arayssi et al., 2016; Huang och Kisgen, 2013). Suggestions for further studies within the field is to do a similar study but to study several cases over time which would allow investigation of causality between the variables. Furthermore, it would be interesting to take the board members age into account as previous studies indicates that the risk profile changes depending on age. Another suggestion for further studies is to collect credit ratings from more than S&P in order to investigate if the result may differ from this study. Finally, it could be of interest to consider if the bank has scattered or controlled ownership as these factors can affect the credit rating and thus the credit risk.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of how a bank’s features and internal factors have affected its choice of method in calculating the capital requirement. Theoretical and Empirical Method: The research strategy of this study has been of a qualitative nature with a deductive approach. The choice of method was depth interviews with respondents from a targeted sample of Swedish banks. These respondents were chosen based on the knowledge they possess as key employees in the capital requirement process and their involvement in choosing their banks’ method for calculating the capital requirement. The interviews were semi-structured, with open questions that allowed a dialogue with the respondents in which they could express their opinions and knowledge regarding the factors affecting their banks’ choice of method. Theoretical Approach: The study is based on the new institutional economics theory of how institutions affect organizational behavior. It’s also based on earlier research within the regulation Basel II by, among others, Hakenes and Schabel (2011), Rime (2005) and Wahlström (2009). Conclusions: The results of this study show that banks have identified different factors that affect their choice of calculation method for the capital requirement. The choice the banks are facing is to keep the standardized method, develop an advanced internal based method, create partnerships with other banks or focus on alternative clientele portfolios. The two factors that were considered to be have the greatest significant for the choice of calculation method were resources associated with the implementation of the IRB approach models and how the banks’ clientele portfolio was designed. How these were distributed and to what extent they influenced the choice was highly individual for the chosen banks. / Syfte: Syftet med den här studien är att öka förståelsen om hur en banks förutsättningar och interna faktorer har påverkat dess val av beräkningsmetod för kapitalkravet. Teoretisk och empirisk metod: Forskningsstrategin för studien har varit av den kvalitativa typen med en deduktiv ansats. Valet av metod var djupintervjuer med respondenter från ett målinriktat urval av svenska banker. Respondenterna valdes utifrån de kunskaper som de besitter genom sin position på respektive bank, där deras deltagande i metodvalsprocessen påverkade valet av beräkningsmetod. Intervjuerna var av typen semistrukturerade, med öppna intervjufrågor för att få till en dialog med respondenterna och ta del av deras åsikter och kunskaper gällande de olika faktorerna till metodvalet. Teoretisk referensram: Studien utgick från den nyinstitutionella teorin, om hur institutioner påverkar organisationers beteenden. Den har baserats på tidigare forskning inom regelverket Basel II av bland annat Hakenes och Schnabel (2011), Rime (2005) samt Wahlström (2009). Slutsats: Resultatet av denna studie visar på att bankerna har identifierat olika faktorer som påverkar valet av beräkningsmetod för kapitalkravet. Valet som bankerna står inför är att behålla Schablonmetoden, utveckla en IRK-metod, skapa samarbeten med andra banker eller fokusera på alternativa klientelportföljer. De två faktorer som ansågs ha störst signifikans för valet av beräkningsmetod var resurserna som förknippades med implementeringen av modellerna i IRKmetoden och hur bankens klientelportfölj var utformad. Hur dessa var fördelade och i vilken grad de påverkade valet var högst individuellt för de utvalda bankerna.

The development and complexity of the e-commerce sector has increased the demand forcompanies to grasp and develop their business models, as well their credit risk managementfunctions, in order be profitable and create value. This thesis examines how credit riskmanagement can be integrated in a business model, in terms of a customer value proposition,profit formula, key processes and key resources. Theories about business models state that abusiness model should give a holistic view of the company and how it operates. Features for asuccessful model should include functions that create value and increase competitiveness, as wellas generating valuable cost and risk structures to ensure the company’s profitability. The empiricaldata was collected through interviews and secondary data at Klarna, a company that operates withpayment solutions in the e-commerce, a market where the risk of credit losses is high and to haveproper credit risk functions is a necessity. The result revealed that credit risk management is afundamental part of a business model in the e-commerce, since effective credit risk managementfunctions ensure that the elements of a business model are functional and complement each other.The study further found that there are certain prominent functions in each one of the four elementsthat enable the integration of credit risk management in the business model.

In this study Jarrow Turnbull (1995) Model, which is a reduced form approach for credit risk models, is employed to estimate the default intensity of US corporate bonds conditionally based on a fixed recovery rate. The estimations are performed with respect to the ratings of the bonds and the results were consistent with the ratings. US Treasury Bills are also used to since zero coupon default free prices, modeled by Svensson (1994) are necessary for pricing the default risky coupon bonds.

A Constant Proportion Debt Obligation is a credit derivative which has been introduced to generate a surplus return over a riskless market return. The surplus payments should be obtained by synthetically investing in a risky asset (such as a credit index) and using a linear leverage strategy which is capped for bounding the risk. In this thesis, we investigate two approaches for investigation of constant proportion debt obligations. First, we search for an optimal leverage strategy which minimises the mean-square distance between the final payment and the final wealth of constant proportion debt obligation by the use of optimal control methods. We show that the optimal leverage function for constant proportion debt obligations in a mean-square sense coincides with the one used in practice for geometric type diffusion processes. However, the optimal strategy will lead to a shortfall for some cases. The second approach of this thesis is to develop a pricing formula for constant proportion debt obligations. To do so, we consider both the early defaults and the default on the final payoff features of constant proportion debt obligations. We observe that a constant proportion debt obligation can be modelled as a barrier option with rebate. In this respect, given the knowledge on barrier options, the pricing equation is derived for a particular leverage strategy.