Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-09-16T15:13:31Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO_CAMILA NOBRE.pdf: 1435662 bytes, checksum: b3674247b1c1cf9458d4afeb4f46967c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-16T15:13:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO_CAMILA NOBRE.pdf: 1435662 bytes, checksum: b3674247b1c1cf9458d4afeb4f46967c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / CAPES / O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar o impacto de características socioeconômicas, administrativas e produtivas dos pequenos produtores de manga do Polo Petrolina-Juazeiro sobre a relação entre financiamento bancário e a dívida com a Codevasf. A amostra utilizada na pesquisa é proveniente de dados primários. A metodologia utilizada foram os modelos Logit e Probit estimados através do método da Máxima Verossimilhança. Os resultados mostram que existem diferenças nos fatores que influenciam a inadimplência dos produtores com relação à Codevasf quando se analisa o grupo dos produtores que não recorreram a crédito bancário em relação ao grupo dos que recorreram. Para os agricultores que não solicitaram crédito, a probabilidade de se tornarem inadimplentes com a Codevasf diminui caso eles sejam casados, aposentados, participem de treinamentos e utilizem equipamentos terceirizados. A probabilidade de inadimplência aumenta para os que terceirizam a poda. Para os que recorreram a crédito bancário, a chance de inadimplência com a Codevasf é reduzida pelas variáveis idade, escolaridade, assistência técnica e certificação. Em contrapartida, os produtores que são aposentados, participam de treinamentos e tem lotes localizados em núcleos mais afastados apresentam maior probabilidade de inadimplência. / The present study aims to analyze the impact of socio-economic, administrative and productive characteristics of the small scale mango producers of the Petrolina-Juazeiro complex on the relationship between bank financing and the debt with Codevasf. The sample used in the research is from primary data. The methodologies used were the Logit and Probit models, estimated through the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. The results show that there are differences in the factors that influence the default of producers regarding Codevasf when analyzing the group of producers who did not resort to bank credit in relation to the group who resorted. For farmers who did not request credit, the likelihood of becoming in default with Codevasf decreases if they are married, retired, participate in training and use third-party equipment. The probability of default increases for those who outsource pruning. For those who resorted to bank credit, the chance of default with Codevasf is reduced by variables such as age, education, technical assistance and certification. Conversely, producers who are retired, participate in training and have plots of land located in more remote nucleuses are more likely to default.

Submitted by João Miranda (joao.moraes.miranda@gmail.com) on 2013-09-23T13:58:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Um estudo sobre a probabilidade de default para bancos de médio e pequeno porte.pdf: 1263567 bytes, checksum: 4587c672711e5c3b9ae677b492e5f6c4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-09-23T15:15:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Um estudo sobre a probabilidade de default para bancos de médio e pequeno porte.pdf: 1263567 bytes, checksum: 4587c672711e5c3b9ae677b492e5f6c4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-23T15:41:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Um estudo sobre a probabilidade de default para bancos de médio e pequeno porte.pdf: 1263567 bytes, checksum: 4587c672711e5c3b9ae677b492e5f6c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-27 / This dissertation aims to find a primary risk metric for banks that can be a specific component in future models of cost of capital. As a secondary objective, this paper discloses a modeling process that can be extended to other banking segments. The set of contributions of this work consists in the vision application, the object of study (banks small and medium sized businesses with low diversification of products or segments in the Brazilian financial system) and the accessibility of the structured modeling process / Esta dissertação tem por objetivo primário encontrar uma métrica de risco para bancos elegível a ser uma componente específica em futuros modelos de custo de capital. Como objetivo secundário, este trabalho descreve um processo de modelagem passível de ser estendido a outros segmentos bancários. O conjunto de contribuições deste trabalho consiste na visão de aplicação, no objeto de estudo (bancos de pequeno e médio porte com baixa diversificação de produtos ou segmentos no sistema financeiro brasileiro) e na acessibilidade do processo de modelagem estruturado

As a consequence from the last financial crisis that began 2007 in USA, regulatory frameworks are continuously improved in order to limit the banks’ risk exposure. Two of the amendments are Basel III and IFRS 9. Basel III regulates the capital a bank is required to hold while IFRS 9 is an accounting standard for how banks and insurance companies should classify their assets and estimate their future credit losses. Mutually for both Basel III and IFRS 9 is the estimation of future credit losses which include probability of default in the calculations.The objective of this thesis was therefore to develop scoring model that can estimate the probability of default in lending capital to enterprises based on information from financial statements. The aim is that the developed model also can be used in the daily operations to reduce fixed costs by optimizing the processes and increase the profit on each loan issued. The model should estimate probability of default within 500 days from the last known information and be customized for small and medium size enterprises.The model is based on logistic regression and is therefore returning values between 0 and 1. Parameters that the model consists of can either be calculated or retrieved directly from financial statements. The authors have during the development of the model divided the data, consisting of information from enterprises, based on branches. The grouping of data has been performed to create as homogenous sets of data as possible in order to increase the degree of explanation for each model. The final solution will thus consist of several models, one for each set of data. The validation of the models is performed, on a new set of enterprises where it is observed how well the models can discriminate enterprises defined as defaults from non-defaults.The master thesis did result in a number of models that are calibrated on default, non-defaults and models developed on data divided on branches. By using the calibrated models, it is possible to discriminate defaulting from non-defaulting enterprises which has been the objective of this thesis. During the project the importance of dividing data into homogenous groups has been shown in order to better create models that more accurately can identify defaults from non-defaults. / Som en konsekvens av finanskrisen som började 2007 i USA tillkom ytterligare regelverk för att minimera bankers riskexponering. Två av de regelverk som tillkommit är Basel III och IFRS 9. Basel III reglerar kapitaltäckningen för en bank medan IFRS 9 är en standard för hur banker och försäkringsbolag skall klassificera tillgångar samt estimera framtida kreditförluster. Gemensamt för de båda regelverken är estimeringen av kreditförluster som bland annat baseras på risken för fallissemang.Målet med detta examensarbete är därför att utveckla en scoringmodell som kan estimera risken för fallissemang vid utlåning till företag baserat på information från dess årsredovisningar. Modellen kommer även kunna användas i den operativa verksamheten för att reducera fasta kostnaderna genom att effektivisera processer och då öka avkastningen på varje utlånad krona. Modellen kommer att estimera risken för fallissemang inom 500 dagar från senast kända informationen och den kommer att anpassas till svenska små och medelstora företag.Modellen är baserad på logistisk regression och kommer därför att returnera värden mellan 0 och 1 samt bestå av parametrar som antingen kan beräknas eller hämtas direkt ur en årsredovisning. För att öka modellens förklaringsgrad har författarna vid kalibreringen av modellerna delat in datat efter branscher. Uppdelningen har gjorts för att skapa så homogena grupper som möjligt och lösningen kommer därför att bestå av flera olika modeller. Validering av modellerna sker genom att på nytt data testa hur bra företag som definierats som fallissemang kan diskrimineras från företag som inte definieras som fallissemang.Rapporten resulterar i ett antal modeller som är baserade på konkurser, icke konkurser samt modeller baserade på ett data som är uppdelat på branscher. Genom att använda de kalibrerade modellerna så går det att diskriminera konkurser från icke konkurser vilket varit målet med denna rapport. Arbetet har också påvisat vikten av att dela in datat i homogena grupper för att på ett bättre sätt skapa modeller som mer exakt kan urskilja konkurser från icke konkurser.

Det vardagliga beslutsfattandet är produkten av olika tankeprocesser. Det finns teorier om att människans beslutsfattande sker med hjälp av två system, där det ena står för snabba beslut (“system 1”) och den andra för mer genomtänkta beslut (“system 2”). Dessa processer kan ge upphov till det så kallade ”konjunktionsfelet”. Detta innebär att kombinationen av två egenskaper eller händelser anses mer sannolikt än en av dessa egenskaper eller händelser. Konjunktionsfelet begås vid sannolikhetsbedömningar där personen baserar sitt svar på likhetsinformation och att detta är en “system 1-process”. I detta fall avser likhetsinformation svarsalternativ med konjunktioner som påminner om personbeskrivningarna i sannolikhetsbedömningarna. Denna studie syftar till att styrka antagandet om att “system 1” påverkar beslutfattandet i sannolikhetsbedömningen, även under kontroll av “system 2”. Studien innefattade 30 deltagare (11 män och 19 kvinnor) i åldersspannet 19-34 år (M = 24.17 år, SD = 4.23). För studien användes en inomgruppsdesign. Huvudhypotesen var att ökad likhetsinformation skulle leda till förlängd reaktionstid. Enligt tidigare forskning ökar reaktionstiden med mängden likhetsinformation. Denna studie stödjer inte dessa resultat och huvudhypotesen uppfylls ej. Datat resulterade även i ett oväntat fynd som visade på att försöksdeltagarna gjorde signifikant färre antal rätt desto mera likhetsinformation  de utsattes för. Slutsatsen är att det blir svårare för testdeltagaren att fatta rätt beslut då mängden likhetsinformation ökar. Studiens oväntade fynd kan överföras till vardagliga situationer. Detta genom att människor kan begå misstag på grund av att de inte tänker igenom saker, eller analyserar beslut tillräckligt noggrant.

Credit derivatives are one of the most often discussed instruments which influenced the mortgage crisis in USA and consequently also the global financial crisis. Credit derivatives are complex instruments. The aim of this thesis is to describe credit derivatives, dealing with them, analyse the situation on the housing market in USA, determine what the role of credit derivatives in the crisis was and analyse other factors, which contributed to the creation of the crisis.

This dissertation consists of three essays on the topic of commercial mortgages. The first paper contributes to the commercial mortgage literature and the multiple factor asset-pricing literature by creating a model for commercial mortgage returns. The result of an initial analysis using the five Fama and French (1993) factors is that the sensitivities of commercial mortgage returns and corporate bond returns to all factors are statistically indistinguishable. However, further analysis was performed using factors associated with real estate returns, and the result is that unlike corporate bonds, commercial mortgage returns are sensitive to the factor that measures growth in personal consumption. In the second paper, I investigate the two potential outcomes that can eventually arise when a commercial mortgage borrower fails to make a scheduled payment. Either the borrower reinstates the loan and resumes payment or the lender forecloses on the property. The following question arises: under which situation does each outcome occ.ur? I investigate this using a game-theoretic model and multinomial logit empirical tests on a disaggregate dataset. My key finding is that the outcome is based on the relative values of variables that include the borrower's equity in the secured property and the rate of property appreciation. Empirical tests confirm that the characteristics of real estate loans across delinquency outcomes are distinguishable. The third paper investigates the role of commercial mortgage guarantees in default. Childs, Ott and Riddiough (1996) use an options-based theoretical model to show that recourse should reduce the likelihood of default. This paper tests that prediction empirically using a database from a Canadian lender. The advantage of using a Canadian dataset is the prevalence of recourse lending not seen in the U.S. I find a negative relationship between default and the presence of a guarantee, supporting the Childs, Ott and Riddiough (1996) prediction. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The credit valuation adjustment (CVA) on an over-the-counter derivative transaction is the price of the risk associated with the potential default of the counterparties to the trade. This dissertation provides an introduction to the concept of CVA, beginning with the required backdrop of counterparty risk and the basics of default risk modelling. Right and wrong way risks are central themes of the dissertation. A model for the pricing of both the unilateral and the bilateral CVA on a credit default swap (CDS) is implemented. Each step of this process is explained thoroughly. Results are reported and discussed for a range of parameters. The trends observed in the CDS CVA numbers produced by the model are all justified and the right and wrong way nature of the exposures captured. In addition, the convergence and stability of the numerical schemes utilised are shown to be appropriate. A case study, in which the model is applied to a set of market scenarios, concludes the dissertation. Since the field is far from established, a number of areas are suggested for further research. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / unrestricted

Investigation of the neural correlates of the self has implicated a network of brain regions including the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), posterior cingulate (PCC), precuneus (pC), and inferior parietal lobule (IPL). At the same time, recent neuroimaging work has identified the Default Mode Network (DMN), a network of brain regions that are highly active at `rest' (without an active cognitive task). While the functional significance of the DMN remains unknown, converging evidence suggests that the DMN might be critical for self-referential processing (e.g., introspection). In this dissertation, I tested this hypothesis using a lesion approach. In the first experiment, I examined the critical role of the DMN hubs (MPFC, IPL) in autobiographical memory (AM) retrieval. I predicted that if the DMN hubs were critical for AM, then lesions to either the MPFC or IPL should result in AM retrieval impairments. I tested this prediction using the Iowa Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire (IAMQ), a questionnaire that assessed retrograde AM retrieval. In support of the prediction, lesions to the MPFC and IPL were associated with significant AM retrieval impairments. While not predicted, AM retrieval deficits were also associated with lesions in medial and lateral temporal cortices, regions also considered part of the DMN. In the second experiment, I tested the critical role of the DMN hubs in the self-reference effect (SRE), a well-known memory advantage conferred by self-related processing. I predicted that if the DMN hubs were critical for the SRE, then damage to the MPFC or IPL should diminish the effect. I used a standard personality trait judgment paradigm to test this prediction. In partial support of the prediction, I found that damage to the MPFC abolished the SRE with a "self" specific deficit. While IPL damage was associated with a diminished SRE, the effects were not significant. In the third experiment, I tested the hypothesis that the DMN is critical for accurate knowledge of one's personality. I predicted that if the DMN hubs are critical for accurate self-knowledge, then damage to either the MPFC or IPL should be associated with less accurate personality reports. In partial support of the prediction, MPFC and IPL groups demonstrated less accurate personality ratings. However, performance for all lesion groups was comparable and not significantly different from healthy subjects. In the fourth experiment, I sought to test the hypothesis that the DMN is critical for mind wandering (MW). I predicted that if the DMN hubs are critical for MW, then damage to the MPFC and IPL should result in decreased MW. To test this prediction, I used two approaches: 1) an experience sampling method (Sustained Attention to Response Task), and 2) a self-report measure (Imaginal Processes Inventory scale of MW). Contrary to my prediction, IPL lesions were associated with increased MW on the SART. By contrast, in support of the prediction, both MPFC and IPL lesions were associated with significant self-reported decreases in MW. Together, these experiments provide some evidence to support the hypothesis that the DMN is critical for self-referential processing. Future work might investigate the impact of DMN lesions on other self-processes (e.g., self-agency).

Thesis (MTech (Cost and Management Accounting))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2019 / The risk that borrowers may not fulfil borrowing obligation presents credit owners (lenders) with a default risk management opportunity to maximize risk-adjusted rate of return and maintain minimum exposure to default associated cost. This study investigated respondents' perception of the cost of credit default and examines requirements for default risk management (ORM) in the vehicle finance industry in South Africa. It is noted that with increased level of consumer indebtedness, an unstable economy, and high unemployment, vehicle financing faces a higher probability of default from borrowers. This descriptive investigation utilised both the quantitative and qualitative approaches using the survey method to collect data from 381 purposive, randomly selected respondents who are vehicle finance customers in South Africa; Cape Town specifically. Data collection took place in the Western Cape over a nine months period, utilising personal interview, and emails to administer open-ended questionnaires for credit managers and close-ended questionnaires, for the vehicle finances' customers, as data collection instrument. Responses received were codified and quantitative data was analysed using the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS version 25) while qualitative data was analysed using the content analysis of percentage of word similarities. The study found mixed and variable respondents' perception of the cost of credit default. In conclusion, it is perceived that in South Africa the cost of credit would become more costly with credit default. It can be recommended that a default risk management intervention could be applied to mitigate the risk of credit default within the context of unified credit assessment policy of South Africa.

The aim of this study is to quantify and investigate the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on non-financial South African firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The study implemented the Merton (1974) model on the 59 largest non-financial firms and calculated the probability of default for each firm before the pandemic and during the pandemic as at each firm's financial year-end. The default probabilities are calculated predominantly from the value and volatility of firm equity. The results emphasize that the Covid-19 pandemic, on average, had a dramatic impact on the probability of default of publicly traded South African firms. The observed increase in default probability was found to be statistically significant at the 5% significance level.