Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2002. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references. Available also from UMI Company.

Bachelor's thesis. / Format: PDF. Bibl.

This paper examines the impact of a new Central Bank mandate on agricultural competitiveness and on the ability of the agricultural sector to articulate its policy interests within Argentina’s policymaking process. Reforms to Argentina’s Central Bank charter, passed into law in April 2012, loosened restrictions on Central Bank lending to Argentina’s Treasury and authorized the Central Bank to act to reduce unemployment and spur economic development. The Central Bank carries out its new mandate within a policymaking process characterized by strong presidential authority, weak political institutions, powerful provincial governments, and a budget system that politicizes the transfer of fiscal resources from the federal government to the provinces. Within these policymaking dynamics, this paper analyzes the actions of the Mesa de Enlace, an interest group coalition comprised of Argentina’s four largest agricultural producer associations, and its response to changes in Central Bank governance. My argument is twofold. First, I argue that the new mandate in the long run will exert inflationary pressure on Argentina’s real exchange rate, a key determinant of competitiveness for primary commodity exports, particularly soy. Public statements made by various representatives of the Mesa de Enlace indicate strong opposition to the nominal overvaluation (atraso cambiario) of the peso. Second, I argue that the new mandate politicizes an already-politicized Central Bank. Given the agricultural sector’s waning influence in institutionalized policymaking channels, executive intrusion in Central Bank operations is economically harmful. Such government interference serves to diminish agricultural considerations in monetary policymaking and to encourage the Mesa de Enlace’s exploitation of informal channels for interest articulation, creating disincentives for robust investment and causing undesired work stoppages, hoarding, and social protest. / text

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There are two key observations in international macroeconomics which pertain to output and real exchange rate dynamics. First, fluctuations in national output around its long-run growth path are very persistent. Second, fluctuations in real exchange rates are very persistent. The sticky price framework offers an explanation for both phenomena. The first and second essay of this thesis take an empirical approach to test the predictions of this framework. In the first essay I test the prediction of the sticky price model for output dynamics using annual IFS data on 51 countries over the period 1950 -1996. The model predicts that price stickiness should be less important in high inflation countries and therefore output fluctuations less persistent. I find that, this inverse relationship is statistically insignificant in the international data. A similar result holds for OECD countries. In the empirical implementation I explicitly control for the within-country time variation in inflation by first characterizing the inflationary environment using the long-run movements in inflation (trend inflation), and secondly, by excluding episodes of hyperinflation. The analysis shows that when the within-country time variation in inflation is ignored, there is support for the prediction. For instance, the inverse relationship between persistence in deviations of output from its long-run growth path and average inflation is statistically significant in the full sample. However, the exclusion of a few episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. In the second essay I investigate the prediction of the sticky price model for real exchange rate dynamics using annual IFS data on 49 countries over the period 1972-1996. The model predicts that deviations of real exchange rates from purchasing power parity should be less persistent, in high inflation countries. The empirical analysis reveals that the support for such an inverse relationship is extremely fragile. In particular, eliminating episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. The lack of evidence in favour of the two predictions of the sticky price model is problematic since this model is extensively used as a microfoundation for understanding output and real exchange rate fluctuations. In the third essay I take a structural approach to qualitatively explore the role of slow diffusion of new products in propagating the effect of technology shocks on output. I present a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the creation of new products requires real resources. These products are beneficial for the economy but only upon complete diffusion. However, this diffusion is not instantaneous. I find that relative to a model in which there is instantaneous diffusion of new products, the qualitative output dynamics are similar to what is observed in the U.S. data. This warrants further quantitative investigation.

Magistro darbo tikslas yra ištirti prognozės modelius, leidžiančius prognozuoti valiutos kurso vertę į ateitį bei ištirti gautų rezultatų atitikimą realiai rinkos situacijai. Ištyrus prognozės metodus ir atradus patikimą algoritmą - jį užrašyti Java kalba ir pritaikyti Android OS valiutos kurso prognozei. Taip pat įgyvendinti programėlės funkcijas, kurios vartotojui leis pilnai atlikti norimas operacijas: konvertuoti valiutas viena kitos atžvilgiu, stebėti rinkoje pokytį, peržiūrėti istorinius valiutos duomenis, stebėti rinkos situaciją, kurti savo valiutos sąrašą. Rezultatai: ištirtas ir atrinktas prognozės algoritmas, pritaikytas Android OS programėlėje penkių dienų valiutos kursų prognozei. Sukurtos papildomos programėlės funkcijos panaudojant Android OS teikiamas sistemines galimybes. Suderinta vartotojo sąsaja su skirtingais įrenginiais egzistuojančiais rinkoje. / The research objective is to investigate the models for currency exchange rates forecast and examine the compliance of the observed forecast results with the real market situation. The study of prediction methods and the discovery of a reliable algorithm, are programmed in Java and Android OS to allow currency exchange rate forecasts on demand. Once forecasting model is developed, additional functionalities for Android OS device are created allowing the user to fully perform such operations as: to convert one currency to the other, monitor the change in the market, view historical currency data, to monitor the market situation and customize favorite currency list. Results: investigated and selected forecasting algorithm which was applied to Android OS mobile with a five-day forecast of exchange rates duration. Created additional app capabilities using Android system’s resources and functions. Designed user interface to work with multiple Android devices existing on the market today.

Šiuo metų informacinės technologijos vystosi labai sparčiai, tai ypač pastebima internete. Įmonės stengiasi kuo daugiau informacijos apie save ir savo paslaugas pateikti savo interneto svetainėse, kadangi žmonės informacijos vis dažniau ieško internete. Ne išimtis ir bankai, kurie pateikia visą informaciją apie save, ir savo paslaugas savo interneto svetainėse, tačiau kiekvieno banko interneto svetainės struktūra yra skirtinga, todėl norint sužinoti ir palyginti valiutų kursų duomenis skirtinguose bankuose užima daug laiko. Taip pat bankai neteikia tokios paslaugos kaip valiutos kurso kitimo istorija, kas yra aktualu atliekant valiutos keitimo operaciją. Bakalauro baigiamojo darbo tikslas – sukurti valiutų kursų stebėjimo sistemą, paremta Lietuvos bankų pateikiamais valiutų kursų duomenimis, pateikti vartotojams valiutų kursų duomenis iš skirtingų Lietuvos bankų vienoje vietoje, bei suteikti jiems įrankius, kurių dėka jie galėtų palyginti duomenis tarp skirtingų bankų. Pasinaudodami kuriama sistema vartotojai sutaupytų daug laiko, ne tik dėl to kad visi duomenys pateikiami vienoje vietoje, bet ir dėl to kad kiekvieno banko duomenys bus pateikiami vienoda forma, todėl juos bus lengva suprasti ir analizuoti. / Nowadays everybody use internet to either find or spread information. Banks do the same, in fact clients no longer need to visit bank, because everything can be done online, which means that banks provide a lot of information to it’s customers. Aim of the project is to create a system, which would provide users with Exchange rates data from Lithuanian banks in an unified, easy to understand format. System must monitor and collect Exchange rates fluctuation data supplied by Lithuanian banks automatically. System requirements and architecture were determined after carrying out an analysis of similar systems. Main requirements for the system are that the data collection should be performed automatically, so that the system can operate with minimum maintenance required. Users must be able to view daily Exchange rates data as well as have the ability to view historic graphs for a specific currency in a specific bank, perform currency Exchange calculations in a specific bank or compare the results between selected banks. Based on system requirements specification and architectural specification system testing was conducted in order to find and fix system errors and also check system compatibility with different server-side and user-side software. User manual is also available for both, system administrators and end-users.

A South African taxpayer’s taxable income must be determined in rands. Several provisions of the Income Tax Act (the Act) relate to foreign currency transactions and the interaction of these provisions is complicated. A taxpayer needs to determine the provision that applies to his foreign transaction. It will then provide the rule or method that needs to be applied to his foreign transaction. If an amount is in a foreign currency, it must be translated into rands. If there is an exchange item, a foreign exchange gain or foreign exchange loss must be taken into account. If an asset is disposed of or acquired in a foreign currency then a capital gain or capital loss must be calculated when it is disposed of. Examples of typical foreign exchange transactions have been provided, discussed and analysed in this dissertation. The provisions in the Act that are relevant to the foreign exchange transactions have been identified and the interaction between them has been considered. Potential difficulties because provisions in the legislation contradict each other or do not cater for a particular situation were identified. Also possible tax-saving opportunities have been identified. / Thesis (M.Acc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2010.

The foreign exchange market plays an important role in global finance, as it is considered to be among the largest financial markets in the world because of the significant amount of money involved in the foreign exchange market's transactions. Economic theories show that the exchange rate market may interact with the stock market index, but empirical studies on the interaction between the exchange rate market and the stock market index produced mixed results. Thus there is no empirical agreement regarding the interactions between the stock prices and exchange rate. This study examined the interaction between the real exchange rate and the stock market index in South Africa, with the aim of identifying the effect of exchange rate shocks on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). It establishes the direction of causality between the stock market index and the real exchange rate; identifies the long-run and short-run relationships between the South African stock market and the exchange rate and determines the response of the South African stock market to different exchange rate regimes from 1978 to 2008. This study used different econometrics models, including descriptive statistics analysis, Engle-Granger cointegration approach, Error Correction Model and a Granger-Causality test. Variables used in this study include the real values of the JSE all share index and the real exchange rate series (the Rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate) from January 1978 to December 2008. The stock market index responded to changes in exchange rate regimes. Although the response tended to be slightly stronger during the period of the free floating exchange rate, correlation coefficients were insignificant in both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. A negative long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and the stock market index was found. The short-run results established that changes in the real exchange rate have no impact on the real stock market index. Granger-Causality tests indicated that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between the South African stock market index and the Rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

A cointegration analysis on a triangle of high frequency exchange rates is presented. Market efficiency requires the triangle to be cointegrated and the cointegration term to be a martingale difference sequence. We find empirical evidence against market efficiency for very short time horizons: The cointegration term does not behave like a martingale difference sequence. In an out-of-sample forecasting study the cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model is found to be superior to the naive martingale. Finally, a simple trading strategy shows that the VAR also has a significant forecast value in economic terms even after accounting for transaction costs. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"